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Post by stevehorn on Oct 19, 2019 13:56:57 GMT -5
Clearly you are new. Trojan is such a genius at this it's like he's actually on the committee. If Trojan were on the committee, they might get it right. Trojan is very close to being the same as the committee. So if you think he is accurate, then the committee is also.
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Post by jayj79 on Oct 19, 2019 14:54:09 GMT -5
Do any of these teams have power conference opponents left on the schedule? It's hard to see any of these teams moving into at-large territory playing each other. just because a team is from a "power conference" doesn't mean they're automatically good. Rutgers and Mississippi State are from "power conferences"
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Post by macroman on Oct 19, 2019 16:49:01 GMT -5
Do any of these teams have power conference opponents left on the schedule? It's hard to see any of these teams moving into at-large territory playing each other. just because a team is from a "power conference" doesn't mean they're automatically good. Rutgers and Mississippi State are from "power conferences" Absolutely. My point is that (1) you can see from the RPI or Pablo or AVCA polls that the Horizon League teams are not in the area where they would get serious At-Large consideration. (2) For a Horizon League team to get that status they would need attention getting future win(s). (3) Most often this kind of win is against someone from a league with stronger reputation and strength of schedule. (4) At this point in the season there are few such opportunities. So, for those following the league, do you see an opportunity for any Horizon League teams to move the needle? Today Milwaukee is hosting Wright state and seems to be having their way so far: 25-16, 23-18
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 19, 2019 23:27:54 GMT -5
bluepenquin I remember the Ivy League hosting a playoff when teams were tied. Even if one team was 2-0 vs. the other, but I could be wrong. I noticed that too on Northern Kentucky. Still an excellent S.O.S but it probably won’t be enough now. What do you think is going to happen with the AAC? There’s a clear separation of the Top 6 teams (Cincy, UCF, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Houston). All 6 are clear favorites as of now to make the AAC Tournament. Houston has the best AAC record (7-0) of those but ironically also the worst RPI. RPI Futures keeps predicting Houston’s run to end, but they keep winning (mostly in 5 sets).. Now that Tulane beat Cincinnati, it gives them a better chance of maxing out T50 RPI teams. If Tulsa beats UCF Sunday, it really makes things interesting. How many AAC teams can you see finishing T50? Could UCF or Cincinnati be in jeopardy of missing the tournament if they falter too much? I just cannot get past Houston's incredible unsustainable conference season thus far. 7-0 yet just winning 50.4% of their points played. The odds of doing this is probably 100-1. Here are the 7 wins so far: 5 set win at home against a good SMU team while being outscored 97-104 (48.3%) 5 set win at home against a not very good Memphis team and only outscoring them 105-104 5 set win at a decent Tulane team on the road with the teams being dead even in points won (100-100) 5 set win at Temple while being outscored 99-105 (48.5%) 4 set win at a not very good Wichita State team. The only match in conference where Houston easily outscored the opponent 96-76 (55.6%) 4 set win against a decent Tulsa team while outscoring them by just three points - 100-97 (50.8%) 5 set win at home against a not very good East Carolina team while barely outscoring them 111-110. I bet they lose their next two and get blasted.
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Post by InTheKnow on Oct 20, 2019 7:11:28 GMT -5
I agree I haven’t seen anything like what Houston is doing. I don’t think they keep it up either. Cinci will likely sweep them today. Tulane must be getting healthy, although they still didn’t have Hansel and swept Cinci on Friday. I also see 4 teams from the West making the conference tourney and 2 from the East. With UCF, Tulane and Cinci in NCAA’s.
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Post by brybast on Oct 20, 2019 10:48:19 GMT -5
Volleyball also doesn't take geography into account for the top 16 seeds. I call BS on that. That may be the "official" stance, but since there is no set standards on determining the top 16 seeds, I'm certain that they can bend things a bit to fit their agendas (i.e. reducing travel costs) But where's the evidence that this has happened?
I can think of specific counterexamples where it clearly hasn't happened. A couple years ago, BYU and Utah were both seeded in the double digits. If they really wanted to bend the seeds to a travel cost reduction agenda, they "could" have dropped one of them to unseeded.
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Post by TuesdayGone on Oct 20, 2019 10:54:11 GMT -5
A change that the NCAA should make is the following
Seed the entire 60 team brackets etc
Then allow the number 1 seed select which bracket they want to be in
The. Allow the number 2 seed to select which bracket and then number 3 choose
Last year Minnesota was a regional host 2 seed but clearly had a much tougher regional than Wisconsin did who was like the 6th seed.
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Post by brybast on Oct 20, 2019 10:58:53 GMT -5
I just cannot wrap my head around the thought of a team with only 1 top 25 win being considered for a top 4 seed...like what In Trojan's analysis he says that a lot would have to break Rice's way -- such as having both UCF and Western Kentucky end up in the RPI top 25 (and of course, beating Western Kentucky twice would help). Rice could have as many as 4 top 25 wins by selection day.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 20, 2019 11:18:46 GMT -5
I just cannot wrap my head around the thought of a team with only 1 top 25 win being considered for a top 4 seed...like what If Trojan's analysis he says that a lot would have to break Rice's way -- such as having both UCF and Western Kentucky end up in the RPI top 25 (and of course, beating Western Kentucky twice would help). Rice could have as many as 4 top 25 wins by selection day.
I just don't see a regional host path for Rice. My sense is that the threshold for regional host is higher than top 25 wins - the schedule is just not going to be enough unless there many more losses from the top P5 teams than one could expect. I think it is going to be difficult for Pittsburgh and pretty much impossible for Rice.
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Post by jayj79 on Oct 20, 2019 11:43:47 GMT -5
I call BS on that. That may be the "official" stance, but since there is no set standards on determining the top 16 seeds, I'm certain that they can bend things a bit to fit their agendas (i.e. reducing travel costs) But where's the evidence that this has happened? I can think of specific counterexamples where it clearly hasn't happened. A couple years ago, BYU and Utah were both seeded in the double digits. If they really wanted to bend the seeds to a travel cost reduction agenda, they "could" have dropped one of them to unseeded.
my conspiracy theories don't need factual backing.
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Post by bbg95 on Oct 20, 2019 12:00:54 GMT -5
If Trojan's analysis he says that a lot would have to break Rice's way -- such as having both UCF and Western Kentucky end up in the RPI top 25 (and of course, beating Western Kentucky twice would help). Rice could have as many as 4 top 25 wins by selection day.
I just don't see a regional host path for Rice. My sense is that the threshold for regional host is higher than top 25 wins - the schedule is just not going to be enough unless there many more losses from the top P5 teams than one could expect. I think it is going to be difficult for Pittsburgh and pretty much impossible for Rice. I agree. I think it's virtually impossible this year. The only way I could see it happening in subsequent years is if Rice establishes itself as a legitimate power with multiple deep runs in the tournament the way Gonzaga did in men's basketball (which would also lead to more traditional powers being willing to schedule them). I'm not sure what Conference USA's current RPI is relative to the other conferences, but it's been between 11 and 14 the last several years.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 20, 2019 12:49:01 GMT -5
I just cannot wrap my head around the thought of a team with only 1 top 25 win being considered for a top 4 seed...like what If Trojan's analysis he says that a lot would have to break Rice's way -- such as having both UCF and Western Kentucky end up in the RPI top 25 (and of course, beating Western Kentucky twice would help). Rice could have as many as 4 top 25 wins by selection day.
I made a note to keep a close eye on the WKU / UTSA match today. UTSA is mid-60's in RPI right now, a win over WKU (20-1) would have skyrocketed their RPI and put them in the at-large picture. Western Kentucky is absolutely demolishing UTSA. 25-10, 23-12 right now in the 2nd set. And this is probably the 3rd best team from the C-USA.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 20, 2019 13:05:33 GMT -5
I just don't see a regional host path for Rice. My sense is that the threshold for regional host is higher than top 25 wins - the schedule is just not going to be enough unless there many more losses from the top P5 teams than one could expect. I think it is going to be difficult for Pittsburgh and pretty much impossible for Rice. With Rice at RPI 15, do they continue to drop due to SOS dropping and opponent win percentage staying the same or dropping? I don't feel like Rice can get back into the top 10 in RPI without alot of help. Does the committee send them to Texas for a potential rematch? Rice's RPI Futures was #7 going into the week. If their current RPI is 15 - then it is likely that their RPI will improve in the coming weeks.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 20, 2019 13:37:30 GMT -5
I just cannot get past Houston's incredible unsustainable conference season thus far. 7-0 yet just winning 50.4% of their points played. The odds of doing this is probably 100-1. I bet they lose their next two and get blasted. Guess who just won set 1 vs. Cincinnati with a big block on Thompson on set point (who they set all three times out of the backrow) ??
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 20, 2019 15:14:17 GMT -5
The Cardiac Cougs (7-0 AAC) are defying all odds with this magical run -- trying to rally themselves into the NCAA Tournament at-large picture.
Houston takes the 4th set against Cincinnati and for the EIGHTH time in 10 matches, Houston will be playing five-sets! Houston has won 6 of the previous 7 five-setters.
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