Post by keeweekid on Nov 4, 2019 17:07:46 GMT -5
Not much has gone on with the guys as none of the 3 in contention went to China.
The only thing of significance recently was Cribb playing in the NORCEA in Boca Chica and winning it.
Therefore, they received 600 points for this relatively easy tournament. This 600 points was significant though as it tied for the 3rd highest points they have received thus far.
Personal note: It seems that FIVB needs to look at points and significance of points. Cribb playing in a bad Norcea tournament and getting 600 points should not be equivalent to winning a 3* or playing for 3/4th in a 4*.
Also, I am only looking at point comparison for each teams top 8, then Top 7, finishes as with plenty of tournaments left to go, I do not expect any of their 9th best points, 10th best points....etc to be "counted" at the end of the season and they take their best 12. To be honest, I don't even expect their 8th best points to be used.
Top 8 Point Finishes
Dalcena- 4880 points (lowest point finish in Top 8 is 320)
Cribb- 4720 points (lowest point finish in Top 8 is 400 points)
2T- 4640 points (lowest point finish in Top 8 is 360 points).
*Thus, Dalcena has more room to expand their lead as they not only have the overall Top 8 lead for points, they also have the lowest point total to replace. Thus, if they all finished 9th at a 4* and received 400 points, Dalcena's lead would actually grow as that would replace the 320 points, Cribb's total would not change, and 2T points would go up slightly but not as much as Dalcena.
Top 7 Point Finishes (as this might be a better indicator of where they are as again, I would be surprised if Dalcena's 320 points they now have as their 8th best point finish will be used in their overall Top 12 at the end of the qualifying).
Dalcena- 4560 points (lowest point finish is 480 points)
Cribb- 4320 points (lowest point finish is 400 points)
2T- 4280 points (lowest point finish is 480 points)
At this point, only 2T has met the minimum 12 tournament requirement to be eligible to qualify for the Olympics. Dalcena needs 2 more tournaments and Cribb needs 1 more.
Granted, 1 team could have 2 HIGH finishes and cement their status for qualifying but at this point, my $ is on Dalcena and Cribb.
Dalcena has the points lead (well depending on how you want to look at it...Top 7 or Top 8 up to now or how you personally want to look at the points race). Dalcena have had more high finishes than the other 2...which isn't saying much. But they have had 3 tournaments where they have received more than 700 points. Cribb has done that twice and 2T just once. IF you want to project past finishes to future finishes, Dalcena will more likely break through with a few more high place finishes than Cribb/2T.
Cribb/2T- Cribb have caught 2T. Personally, I think Cribb is the better team but neither team has really had huge finishes at big tournaments so it really might come down to which one of these teams has 2-3 "unexpectedly" high finishes at a 4* or higher. Neither one has shown they can do that though.
2T is basically in the conversation due to their 4th at the World Championships. 2T earned 1120 points for this finish, which has accounted for almost ~25% of their Top 8 point finishes. The are basically in the running based off of finishing high in 1 tournament. I guess if you are going to do well in a tournament, do well in the most important one of the year. Since Jan. 2019, 2T has played in 10 Three * or higher FIVB tournaments and finished 17th or worse in 6 of them. 2T will need to start making some quarterfinal (or higher) appearances to push Cribb/Dalcena.
Cribb- Cribb is just ahead of 2T by being...well consistently average. They have played in 8 four * or higher tournaments since Jan. 2019 and finished exactly 9th in 5 of the 8 (2 of their finishes were 17th or worse) They have ONLY made it to the quarters or beyond once in a BIG tournament this year (4* or higher). If they can make a few quarters, then I think they start to put 2T more and more in the rearview mirror.
But for now, assuming Dalcena stays ahead of the pack, it will come down to which of 2T/Cribb can shake their so-so finishes and break through with a few high point finishes. 2T will need to do something big a few times as if Cribb can just continue to rack up 9ths at tournaments, that should be all they need to stay ahead of 2T.
The only thing of significance recently was Cribb playing in the NORCEA in Boca Chica and winning it.
Therefore, they received 600 points for this relatively easy tournament. This 600 points was significant though as it tied for the 3rd highest points they have received thus far.
Personal note: It seems that FIVB needs to look at points and significance of points. Cribb playing in a bad Norcea tournament and getting 600 points should not be equivalent to winning a 3* or playing for 3/4th in a 4*.
Also, I am only looking at point comparison for each teams top 8, then Top 7, finishes as with plenty of tournaments left to go, I do not expect any of their 9th best points, 10th best points....etc to be "counted" at the end of the season and they take their best 12. To be honest, I don't even expect their 8th best points to be used.
Top 8 Point Finishes
Dalcena- 4880 points (lowest point finish in Top 8 is 320)
Cribb- 4720 points (lowest point finish in Top 8 is 400 points)
2T- 4640 points (lowest point finish in Top 8 is 360 points).
*Thus, Dalcena has more room to expand their lead as they not only have the overall Top 8 lead for points, they also have the lowest point total to replace. Thus, if they all finished 9th at a 4* and received 400 points, Dalcena's lead would actually grow as that would replace the 320 points, Cribb's total would not change, and 2T points would go up slightly but not as much as Dalcena.
Top 7 Point Finishes (as this might be a better indicator of where they are as again, I would be surprised if Dalcena's 320 points they now have as their 8th best point finish will be used in their overall Top 12 at the end of the qualifying).
Dalcena- 4560 points (lowest point finish is 480 points)
Cribb- 4320 points (lowest point finish is 400 points)
2T- 4280 points (lowest point finish is 480 points)
At this point, only 2T has met the minimum 12 tournament requirement to be eligible to qualify for the Olympics. Dalcena needs 2 more tournaments and Cribb needs 1 more.
Granted, 1 team could have 2 HIGH finishes and cement their status for qualifying but at this point, my $ is on Dalcena and Cribb.
Dalcena has the points lead (well depending on how you want to look at it...Top 7 or Top 8 up to now or how you personally want to look at the points race). Dalcena have had more high finishes than the other 2...which isn't saying much. But they have had 3 tournaments where they have received more than 700 points. Cribb has done that twice and 2T just once. IF you want to project past finishes to future finishes, Dalcena will more likely break through with a few more high place finishes than Cribb/2T.
Cribb/2T- Cribb have caught 2T. Personally, I think Cribb is the better team but neither team has really had huge finishes at big tournaments so it really might come down to which one of these teams has 2-3 "unexpectedly" high finishes at a 4* or higher. Neither one has shown they can do that though.
2T is basically in the conversation due to their 4th at the World Championships. 2T earned 1120 points for this finish, which has accounted for almost ~25% of their Top 8 point finishes. The are basically in the running based off of finishing high in 1 tournament. I guess if you are going to do well in a tournament, do well in the most important one of the year. Since Jan. 2019, 2T has played in 10 Three * or higher FIVB tournaments and finished 17th or worse in 6 of them. 2T will need to start making some quarterfinal (or higher) appearances to push Cribb/Dalcena.
Cribb- Cribb is just ahead of 2T by being...well consistently average. They have played in 8 four * or higher tournaments since Jan. 2019 and finished exactly 9th in 5 of the 8 (2 of their finishes were 17th or worse) They have ONLY made it to the quarters or beyond once in a BIG tournament this year (4* or higher). If they can make a few quarters, then I think they start to put 2T more and more in the rearview mirror.
But for now, assuming Dalcena stays ahead of the pack, it will come down to which of 2T/Cribb can shake their so-so finishes and break through with a few high point finishes. 2T will need to do something big a few times as if Cribb can just continue to rack up 9ths at tournaments, that should be all they need to stay ahead of 2T.
