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Post by baytree on Dec 7, 2019 13:39:29 GMT -5
Massey has San Diego as a 60% favorite, which sounds about right. it's largely about Hawaii's OHs. for top level D1, they don't really overwhelm. so basically can Hawaii compensate with solid serve-receive and grind out a win. One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
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Post by Wolfgang on Dec 7, 2019 14:04:35 GMT -5
Massey has San Diego as a 60% favorite, which sounds about right. it's largely about Hawaii's OHs. for top level D1, they don't really overwhelm. so basically can Hawaii compensate with solid serve-receive and grind out a win. One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
This is one of the reasons I like sports video games. ( well, I used to like them until I started to play more shooters) Player ratings are not static. They vary from game-to-game and minute-to-minute, so you have to use substitutions. Also, in some games, e.g., soccer, there is this thing called “form” which dictates how often (or likely) you’re able to perform at your peak in a game. The lower the form, the less frequently you perform at your best.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Dec 7, 2019 14:50:42 GMT -5
Massey has San Diego as a 60% favorite, which sounds about right. it's largely about Hawaii's OHs. for top level D1, they don't really overwhelm. so basically can Hawaii compensate with solid serve-receive and grind out a win. One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
well yeah - that's always that way with ratings, so I really don't consider that a 'problem' - that's just the data, and it's hard to argue the data doesn't also match the progression of teams thru-out the year. at the same time there's the issue of how much she'll affect the chemistry of Hawaii when they aren't used to playing her - it's a wild-card, like with TVW last night for Cal Poly - but at least for both players they at least played last night San Diego I think has progressed more than Hawaii has since the beginning of the year - and yeah some of that is Hawaii didn't have Jolie
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Dec 7, 2019 15:01:49 GMT -5
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Post by baytree on Dec 7, 2019 15:07:09 GMT -5
One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
well yeah - that's always that way with ratings, so I really don't consider that a 'problem' - that's just the data, and it's hard to argue the data doesn't also match the progression of teams thru-out the year. at the same time there's the issue of how much she'll affect the chemistry of Hawaii when they aren't used to playing her - it's a wild-card, like with TVW last night for Cal Poly - but at least for both players they at least played last night San Diego I think has progressed more than Hawaii has since the beginning of the year - and yeah some of that is Hawaii didn't have Jolie I don't understand the underlined. Not sure if it's important.
It's not a problem as long as you factor that in (i.e., take the ratings with a grain of salt - size ranging from small to huge - if they're being used to predict the future results of matches).
I think both Cal Poly and Hawaii are hard to predict bc neither TVW nor Rasmussen returned before last night. Both players obviously helped their teams but neither are playing at 100% so, as you say, a bit of a wild card for those two teams as well as for their opponents. I'm sure both TVW and Jolie gave a huge psychological boost to their teams, though. I think it made planning more difficult for their opponents and the benefit of that (to CP and Hawaii) outweighs any negatives from the effect of their return on their own sides of the net (bc Hawaii and CP have a lot more info about how their return affects them and how they're playing with those two than San Diego or Stanford do).
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Post by jasonr on Dec 7, 2019 15:27:37 GMT -5
Massey has San Diego as a 60% favorite, which sounds about right. it's largely about Hawaii's OHs. for top level D1, they don't really overwhelm. so basically can Hawaii compensate with solid serve-receive and grind out a win. One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
Another way to look at it is that Rasmussen played and led the team in kills the first time these teams played and Hawaii squeaked out a win in 5, but Frohling didn't play in that match and her development has helped take SD to another level over the course of the season. Should be another good match. On a neutral court, I'd favor SD comfortably, but Hawaii will put up a good fight at home.
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Post by hwnstunner on Dec 7, 2019 15:32:49 GMT -5
I get that SD is good, but can we have some faith in the Wahine? They are NOT the underdog. Don't give a rip what Massey or whatever says. Hawaii is the No. 12 seed, at home, and at full strength. SD is the underdog and Hawaii clearly is expected to win this. Whether or not they do is TBD, but how can we consider SD as the favorite? Come on Hawaii fans. We've beaten top teams in the NCAA second round San Diego, UCLA, Washington, Missouri, Cal Poly, UCSB 2x, as well as NCAA Teams in Denver, St. Johns, and now Northern Colorado. We're a team to be reckoned with.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Dec 7, 2019 15:33:52 GMT -5
One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
Another way to look at it is that Rasmussen played and led the team in kills the first time these teams played and Hawaii squeaked out a win in 5, but Frohling didn't play in that match and her development has helped take SD to another level over the course of the season. Should be another good match. On a neutral court, I'd favor SD comfortably, but Hawaii will put up a good fight at home. Iosia was the only Hawaii returning starter that took the court for Hawaii in that first match against San Diego. They were an entirely new team that were playing together for the first time. To think that San Diego, which returned a bulk of their starters from last season grew, more than a Hawaii team that started 3 freshmen (at that time) and entirely new system is preposterous. Yeah, Frohling didn’t play but Hawaii was entirely new.
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Post by jasonr on Dec 7, 2019 15:38:11 GMT -5
Another way to look at it is that Rasmussen played and led the team in kills the first time these teams played and Hawaii squeaked out a win in 5, but Frohling didn't play in that match and her development has helped take SD to another level over the course of the season. Should be another good match. On a neutral court, I'd favor SD comfortably, but Hawaii will put up a good fight at home. Iosia was the only Hawaii returning starter that took the court for Hawaii in that first match against San Diego. They were an entirely new team that were playing together for the first time. To think that San Diego, which returned a bulk of their starters from last season grew more than a Hawaii team that started 3 freshmen (at that time) and entirely new system is preposterous. Yeah, Frohling didn’t play but Hawaii was entirely new. True, but you have to counterbalance that with also being far more talented than they were last year with the transfers. You can argue that they were building new chemistry, but players like Jolie and BVS had played a lot of big time volleyball already.
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Post by vbprisoner on Dec 7, 2019 15:42:59 GMT -5
Another way to look at it is that Rasmussen played and led the team in kills the first time these teams played and Hawaii squeaked out a win in 5, but Frohling didn't play in that match and her development has helped take SD to another level over the course of the season. Should be another good match. On a neutral court, I'd favor SD comfortably, but Hawaii will put up a good fight at home. Iosia was the only Hawaii returning starter that took the court for Hawaii in that first match against San Diego. They were an entirely new team that were playing together for the first time. To think that San Diego, which returned a bulk of their starters from last season grew, more than a Hawaii team that started 3 freshmen (at that time) and entirely new system is preposterous. Yeah, Frohling didn’t play but Hawaii was entirely new. I think if you tried a little harder you could have utilized a forth "entirely new" in you post! LMAO Good luck wahines!!
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Dec 7, 2019 15:51:24 GMT -5
Iosia was the only Hawaii returning starter that took the court for Hawaii in that first match against San Diego. They were an entirely new team that were playing together for the first time. To think that San Diego, which returned a bulk of their starters from last season grew, more than a Hawaii team that started 3 freshmen (at that time) and entirely new system is preposterous. Yeah, Frohling didn’t play but Hawaii was entirely new. I think if you tried a little harder you could have utilized a forth "entirely new" in you post! LMAO Good luck wahines!! Some time you have to pound it home.
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Post by baytree on Dec 7, 2019 15:55:53 GMT -5
One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
Another way to look at it is that Rasmussen played and led the team in kills the first time these teams played and Hawaii squeaked out a win in 5, but Frohling didn't play in that match and her development has helped take SD to another level over the course of the season. Should be another good match. On a neutral court, I'd favor SD comfortably, but Hawaii will put up a good fight at home. I agree. That's why I think it will be a close match.
As you say, Massey (or Pablo or RPI) doesn't factor changes for SD in either. I almost said that explicitly but I thought it was implied and the only recent SD match I've seen was vs BYU so I'm not familiar with changes (good or bad) that might affect them.
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Post by haw2991 on Dec 7, 2019 16:08:17 GMT -5
One problem with Massey (and Pablo and RPI) is that it treats a team as static over the season. Rasmussen is back for Hawaii. That can significantly change the team. (This was the same problem as when the Committee looked at Cal and didn't factor in that Mirkovic and Rennie were back and playing well.) I think that increases Hawaii's odds but it will still probably be a close game.
Another way to look at it is that Rasmussen played and led the team in kills the first time these teams played and Hawaii squeaked out a win in 5, but Frohling didn't play in that match and her development has helped take SD to another level over the course of the season. Should be another good match. On a neutral court, I'd favor SD comfortably, but Hawaii will put up a good fight at home. Ross didn't play for Hawaii during that weekend as well. Throughout the past month she has consistently lead Hawaii in kills. I'm not suggesting Ross is a better player or even at the same tier as Frohling but at the time we had to settle for Wagoner who can play defense but lacks firepower... Both teams have grown throughout the season and I'm expecting a very competitive match tonight.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Dec 7, 2019 16:12:35 GMT -5
I think it's ridiculous that people are trying to make an argument that Hawai'i is coming into the match as an underdog. Hawai'i is no underdog. Hawai'i is a seed, playing on its home court against a team it already beat once this season. They have better RPI and are a higher rank team. So what makes them the underdog? Pablo? Massey? being the MWC champ? Give me a damn break. Hawaii's whole team (as Robyn referred to) has never been beaten this season.
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Post by haw2991 on Dec 7, 2019 16:15:21 GMT -5
I think it's ridiculous that people are trying to make an argument that Hawai'i is coming into the match as an underdog. Hawai'i is no underdog. Hawai'i is a seed, playing on its home court against a team it already beat once this season. They have better RPI and are a higher rank team. So what makes them the underdog? Pablo? Massey? being the MWC champ? Give me a damn break. Hawaii's whole team (as Robyn referred to) has never been beaten this season. In sports, I always preferred or embraced being labeled the underdog. Just makes it all the better when we proved everyone wrong
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