Penultimate Bracketology (11/24)

[trojansc]

Penultimate 2024 Bracketology (11/24)

NCAA Selection Show: Sunday, December 1st - 5pm ET

NOTE: This is the last bracket that will be released until Final Bracketology is posted. Expect to see the Final Bracketology posted around ~11pm CT on Saturday, November 30th at which point all matches should be concluded. I will provide updates throughout the week on various scenarios.

Please avoid quoting entire original post. This is designed to be a reasonable projection of what the NCAA Tournament Bracket could look like. It does not solely consider results to date.

*Denotes a team that is not a 'drive-in', >400 miles away from the subregional they are assigned to.

Lincoln Regional (#1)

(1) Nebraska vs. New Hampshire*
South Dakota State vs. (8) North Carolina*

(4) Baylor vs. Colorado State*
Texas State vs. (5) Texas A&M

(2) SMU vs. Colgate*
Washington* vs. (7) Dayton*

(3) Arizona State vs. College of Charleston*
San Diego vs. (6) Southern California

State College Regional (#4)

(1) Penn State vs. Fairfield
Yale vs. (8) Florida State*

(4) Kentucky vs. Western Michigan
Loyola-Chicago vs. (5) BYU*

(2) Creighton vs. Florida A&M*
Northern Iowa* vs. (7) Missouri

(3) Purdue vs. Cleveland State
Western Kentucky vs. (6) Miami-FL*

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Louisville Regional (#3)

(1) Louisville vs. SE Missouri State
Illinois vs. (8) Tennessee

(4) Utah vs. High Point*
Virginia* vs. (5) Florida*

(2) Stanford vs. Sacramento State
Hawaii* vs. (7) Loyola Marymount

(3) Texas vs. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi
UT-Arlington vs. (6) Minnesota*

Pittsburgh Regional (#2)

(1) Pittsburgh vs. Delaware State
Arizona* vs. (8) Oklahoma*

(4) Oregon vs. Wofford*
FGCU* vs. (5) TCU*

(2) Wisconsin vs. Chicago State
Ole Miss* vs. (7) Georgia Tech*

(3) Kansas vs. Wichita State
South Carolina* vs. (6) Marquette*

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LAST 4 TEAMS IN:
South Carolina, Ole Miss, Virginia, San Diego

FIRST 4 TEAMS OUT:
UTEP, Rice, NC State, Pepperdine

NEXT 4 TEAMS OUT:
Wright State, Arkansas State, South Florida, Auburn

[trojansc]

Top 4 Seeds

Nebraska and Pittsburgh will host. I expect Louisville to host. Louisville wins one this week - and Penn State wins both this week, it will for sure be those 4 teams. Outside chances for Creighton and Stanford. Stanford must win out to have any chance. Things can possibly get messy if Stanford beats Louisville, and especially if Penn State loses to Nebraska too.

The rest of the Top 16 seeds

I would expect SMU or Wisconsin at 7-8 and I think this can really go either way and I don't have a strong opinion. I'll lean Wisconsin for now, especially because SMU could lose at Florida State. I think Arizona State's best win being Kansas prevents them from going to this range, but I have ASU at 9.

I think Kansas and Texas are 10-11, if Kansas wins out. I think this can go either way too - Kansas does have the Arizona loss but Texas has three in that 26-50 currently range, on top of A&M and Missouri. I went with Kansas for now, but we'll see what happens.

I like Purdue at 12 (they beat Kentucky and Utah H2H, who I have right behind Purdue). Purdue certainly won't get to 12 with a loss, but should stay hosting. I don't see how Utah gets left out. H2H with Baylor/TCU. No bad losses. They just need to beat Iowa State.

I think Oregon has a great shot - it's a for sure thing if they can beat Purdue.

That leaves one spot, I was down to Florida, Baylor, TCU. I actually settled on Baylor. We'll see how far Baylor falls in RPI. If they can stay close enough, I think they have the edge. They have the best win: ASU, and they don't have any losses outside the Top 25. TCU looks very similar but not as good of a win and a bad loss to Kansas State. Florida doesn't even have a win against a top 16 seeded team (I'm not seeing it for A&M or Missouri) and the loss to South Florida.

I do not think Dayton, Texas A&M, or Missouri should have a shot at a seed. Marquette could if they beat Creighton, BYU might have a shot if they beat Creighton, and Georgia Tech has to beat Pitt or Stanford to have any hope. Minnesota has way too many H2H losses to other bubble contenders. I don't see how USC has a case, despite RPI looking good.


Top 32 Seeds

These are still new, but, Dayton and Marquette feel difficult for me to place. Same with Minnesota/Miami. I feel like all 4 of those teams could be 5's or 7's depending on what the committee does. I don't have too much to say for this section.

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At-Larges

I think Tennessee, Illinois, Oklahoma, Washington are all safe. And then the bubble begins:

UTEP, Ole Miss, Hawaii, Rice, Arizona, Virginia, Pepperdine, NC State, Wright State, South Carolina, Arkansas State, San Diego, South Florida.

UTEP and Rice are very thin on wins. UTEP has wins over #54 SE Louisiana and #55 Texas State. Rice has wins over #45 UT-Arlington and #55 Texas State. Both are on the right side of the RPI cut-line though. Interestingly, KPI likes UTEP (#39) much better than (#52) Rice.

I like South Carolina's wins, but they are in RPI trouble. Arizona is practically a lock if they can win out. Arkansas State beat Ole Miss H2H and has 2 just-outside Top 50 wins (#52) Georgia Southern and (#55) Texas State, but does have two bad losses: #162 Lehigh and #256 Southern Miss.

Hawaii has a top-tier win (SMU) but has FIVE sub-100 losses. If Hawaii loses I think they will be outside the cut-line. I feel it's easier to stay in with bad losses than to get in with bad losses. I have not seen that many probably ever in my time of doing this. Milwaukee, maybe in 2018/2019 is the bubble team coming to mind, but they were left out.

San Diego vs. Pepperdine truly is an elimination match, though if Pepperdine wins out I'm not sure they get in anyways with just 1 Top 50 win (especially depending on what happens with Hawaii). I think San Diego will get in winning out -

If it came down to Virginia vs. NC State - that would be interesting. NC State has the H2H - but Virginia has the better RPI, very slightly better wins(?), and not as many bad losses. Both teams can play their ways in though - NC State can beat SMU and Virginia can beat North Carolina. If neither win that match, they leave their fate up to the committee.

Wright State's RPI fell a lot. Combined this loss in the conference tournament with the loss to Oakland last week, I don't see how Wright State has any real shot unless they are overly impressed with the Miami win. It wouldn't make sense.

I don't see how South Florida has any real shot, but with a win over Florida, I thought I'd at least mention it. Their RPI is too far out and they have bad losses to jump those in front of them.

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Possible Bid-Stealing Scenarios (posted in previous Bracketology thread)

-BOTH Creighton and Marquette lose in the Big East Tournament. A third Big East team would get in.

-South Dakota State gets an at-large bid for losing in the Summit League? This shouldn't happen (Jacks getting an at-large bid) but.... blah.

-Hawaii loses the Big West. This isn't a for sure deal - Hawaii is certainly going to test the committee if the committee wants to give them an at-large bid. Hawaii has FIVE sub-100 losses: #111 UCSB, #126 UNLV, #154 UC-Irvine(x2), #278 UC Riverside

-LMU loses twice? This could open the AQ for Pepperdine, but Pepperdine may get in as an at-large anyways, so, this one's more "meh" to me versus a true bid stealer.

[stanfordvb]

I like this a lot except I’d rather not have Texas with Louisville and Stanford… idc what their season was I have ptsd from last year

Also I think Wisconsin / Pitt would be electric. While they’re still a good passing team Pitt doesn’t pass quite as well as Nebraska so Wisconsin block would likely be able to set up better. I also want one of them to cancel the other out

[blue10]

Absolutely hate this thanks !

[blue10]

HAWAII LOST TO RIVERSIDE? There’s literally no !!!!###$$$!!!ing way they should get in as an at large with that many abysmal losses just because they barely beat SMU at home on the first day of the season and even in that match they lost a set 25-7….

[uofaGRAD]

Nov 24, 2024 23:29:29 GMT -5 blue10 said:

Absolutely hate this thanks !

BREAKING: #1-seed Pittsburgh falls in 5 to Arizona in the Round of 32 behind 55 combined kills from Jordan Wilson and Jaelyn Hodge in a battle of the big cats

[scottatlga]

Wofford won SOCON Tournament today 3-2 over Mercer.

[ay2013]

Heading into the final week of play, if I were sitting on the committee, I'd be handing out the following seeds:

1 - Nebraska (Oklahoma)
8 - SMU (Marquette)
9 - ASU (USC)
16 - Florida (Georgia Tech)

2 - Pitt (LMU)
7 - Wisconsin (FSU)
10 - Texas (BYU)
15 - TCU (Texas A&M)

3 - Louisville (Tennessee)
6 - Creighton (Miami)
11 - Kansas (Missouri)
14 - Purdue (Baylor)

4 - Penn State (North Carolina)
5 - Stanford (Minnesota)
12 - Kentucky (Dayton)
13 - Utah (Oregon)

5 Seeds: Oregon, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M
6 Seeds: Dayton, USC, BYU, Missouri
7 Seeds: Miami, Marquette, FSU, Minnesota
8 Seeds: Tennessee, LMU, Oklahoma, North Carolina

*( ) is the sub regional seeded opponent

[ay2013]

As for Washington, please lets lose (I know, sounds awful, but whatevs) to Purdue and USC. I'd rather take my chances in the bracket being unseeded than to be the 8 seed.

Fingers crossed to end up in the following sub regionals: Any Big 12 team.

[scottatlga]

Nov 24, 2024 23:48:40 GMT -5 scottatlga said:

Wofford won SOCON Tournament today 3-2 over Mercer.

Thanks for all you do.

[trianglevolleyball]

Begging the committee to send a good team to TCU, Kansas, or Utah

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 24, 2024 23:48:12 GMT -5 uofaGRAD said:

Nov 24, 2024 23:29:29 GMT -5 blue10 said:

Absolutely hate this thanks !

BREAKING: #1-seed Pittsburgh falls in 5 to Arizona in the Round of 32 behind 55 combined kills from Jordan Wilson and Jaelyn Hodge in a battle of the big cats

Lmao and ent they outsides?

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2024 23:48:12 GMT -5 uofaGRAD said:

Nov 24, 2024 23:29:29 GMT -5 blue10 said:

Absolutely hate this thanks !

BREAKING: #1-seed Pittsburgh falls in 5 to Arizona in the Round of 32 behind 55 combined kills from Jordan Wilson and Jaelyn Hodge in a battle of the big cats

Alexis Shelton after reading this post:

[ay2013]

Nov 25, 2024 0:05:18 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Begging the committee to send a good team to TCU, Kansas, or Utah

Can you replace “or” with “and” 😅

[jwvolley]

Nov 24, 2024 23:50:08 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Heading into the final week of play, if I were sitting on the committee, I'd be handing out the following seeds:

1 - Nebraska (Oklahoma)
8 - SMU (Marquette)
9 - ASU (USC)
16 - Florida (Georgia Tech)

2 - Pitt (LMU)
7 - Wisconsin (FSU)
10 - Texas (BYU)
15 - TCU (Texas A&M)

3 - Louisville (Tennessee)
6 - Creighton (Miami)
11 - Kansas (Missouri)
14 - Purdue (Baylor)

4 - Penn State (North Carolina)
5 - Stanford (Minnesota)
12 - Kentucky (Dayton)
13 - Utah (Oregon)

5 Seeds: Oregon, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M
6 Seeds: Dayton, USC, BYU, Missouri
7 Seeds: Miami, Marquette, FSU, Minnesota
8 Seeds: Tennessee, LMU, Oklahoma, North Carolina

*( ) is the sub regional seeded opponent

Guaranteed 2 out of 3 of Texas, Wisconsin, Pitt left out of the final 4 sounds good to me.