Penultimate Bracketology (11/24)

[trojansc]

Sometimes, the committee will consider factors like:

-Location of contest (Home/Away/Neutral)
-Record in Last 10 Matches

(which, I REALLY dislike the Last 10 metric, because teams play such variable schedules, it can be extremely misleading)

That could impact some of the following teams in terms of AT-LARGE bids:

GOOD: Arkansas State (9-1), Wright State (8-2), Rice (8-2), South Dakota State (8-2). Obviously, the mid-majors play weaker schedules, so this makes sense..

BAD: Washington (3-7), NC State (5-5 or 4-6), Ole Miss (5-5 or 4-6), Illinois (4-6), Virginia (5-5 or 4-6), Auburn (0-10 or 1-9, LOL)

GOOD: Ole Miss won at #36, Illinois won at #42, Rice won (neutral) vs. #45, NC State won at #48, Washington won at #28, Wright State won (neutral) #35, Pepperdine won at #44, South Florida won at #22.

BAD: (No good wins away from home) Auburn best neutral vs. #112, Virginia best at #103, Hawaii at #67, Arizona at #89, UTEP (neutral) #94, South Dakota State (neutral) #69.

Additionally, Ark State's best is neutral #53, San Diego is at #52

[trojansc]

Non-Conference strength-of-schedule for some bubble teams:

Rice (9)
Pepperdine (10)
San Diego (28)
Illinois (33)

---

Wright State (93)
South Dakota State (112)
Washington (121)
Arizona (213)
Virginia (231)
Arkansas State (263)

[blue10]

trojansc is Hawaii out if they lose this 5th set

[WahineFan44]

Nov 29, 2024 23:34:44 GMT -5 blue10 said:

trojansc is Hawaii out if they lose this 5th set

I don’t even think it’s a question. We’re done RPI wise

Only way in is if they use KPI

[trojansc]

Nov 29, 2024 23:34:44 GMT -5 blue10 said:

trojansc is Hawaii out if they lose this 5th set

It's very possible. I'd imagine they'd be last 4 in or first 4 out. I might lean out as of now. Those losses are just so, so bad.

BUT, they have a TON of wins in the 51-100 category and I don't know if that will matter.

[blue10]

Nov 29, 2024 23:36:23 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 29, 2024 23:34:44 GMT -5 blue10 said:

trojansc is Hawaii out if they lose this 5th set

It's very possible. I'd imagine they'd be last 4 in or first 4 out. I might lean out as of now. Those losses are just so, so bad.

BUT, they have a TON of wins in the 51-100 category and I don't know if that will matter.

nevermind Davis flopped

[horns1]

Nov 29, 2024 23:05:55 GMT -5 trojansc said:

If KPI factors in for any significant way, that could possibly hurt/help the following teams:

HELP:
Texas (7) +
Florida (17) +
Texas A&M (18) +
Oklahoma (27) +
South Carolina (28) +
Hawaii (34) +
Washington (39) +
Auburn (42) +
Arkansas State (46) +
-----------------------------

HURT:
TCU (21) -
Marquette (23) -
USC (24) -
Minnesota (31) -
LMU (32) -
Northern Iowa (36) -
NC State (53) -
Arizona (59) -
Rice (51) -
Pepperdine (69) -

Looks like KPI really likes the SEC teams.

[horns1]

Nov 29, 2024 21:31:08 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 29, 2024 21:20:55 GMT -5 sokhna said:

I am so tired of hearing Creighton in this conversation. It makes no sense. Of course, with an easy conference , they aren’t going to lose many matches. Each time they played RPI top 10 teams was their chance to prove themselves, but they flopped. The Creighton stans need to let it go.

Creighton was in the conversation because they played the #2 non-conf S.O.S in the country, had a great RPI, and had a chance at an RPI top 10 win and wins over 2-4 top 16 seeds down the stretch. Kansas couldn't finish T10, USC/Mizzou lost out, Penn State took care of business down the stretch. Creighton needed breaks - got mostly none of them.

There's zero reason to think Creighton has any shot at this point, but, it certainly wasn't a stretch to think they had a shot as the season was winding down. Same with Stanford, though now I also don't see how Stanford would have any case over Louisville.

If we are to believe what the committee stated during their reveal that they value wins against RPI Top 10 wins, then Creighton wasn't really gonna be a serious Top 4 seed contender unless Kansas snuck its way into the Top 10, and even then KU was barely gonna be ranked #10.  That's just not worthy of a Top 4 national seed when you compare how many RPI Top 10 wins each of the other contenders earned.

Granted, the committees (in the past) often state one thing and do the opposite.

[trojansc]

Nov 30, 2024 0:10:37 GMT -5 horns1 said:

That's just not worthy of a Top 4 national seed when you compare how many RPI Top 10 wins each of the other contenders earned.

It was possible down the stretch that Kentucky (current #9) didn't finish Top 10 and Kansas did. That would have put Creighton and Penn State with the same # of Top 10 wins.

It was always in Penn State's hands really of whether they got the spot or not. Truthfully, they weren't even a lock to me even earlier today unless they beat Nebraska or Stanford lost to Louisville. They took care of business and didn't even have to worry about scoreboard watching. 

Penn State hosting a regional was always more likely (over both Creighton and Stanford) which is why I consistently put them as a Top 4 through most every Bracketology this year. It was clear that Wisconsin, Stanford, and Creighton were the outside shots. Wisconsin really had at least a theoretical chance after they beat Penn State. But, none of them were most likely, but how much of a long-shot is debatable. I certainly saw paths - but I always liked Penn State's best.     

[n00b]

Nov 30, 2024 0:10:37 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 29, 2024 21:31:08 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Creighton was in the conversation because they played the #2 non-conf S.O.S in the country, had a great RPI, and had a chance at an RPI top 10 win and wins over 2-4 top 16 seeds down the stretch. Kansas couldn't finish T10, USC/Mizzou lost out, Penn State took care of business down the stretch. Creighton needed breaks - got mostly none of them.

There's zero reason to think Creighton has any shot at this point, but, it certainly wasn't a stretch to think they had a shot as the season was winding down. Same with Stanford, though now I also don't see how Stanford would have any case over Louisville.

If we are to believe what the committee stated during their reveal that they value wins against RPI Top 10 wins, then Creighton wasn't really gonna be a serious Top 4 seed contender unless Kansas snuck its way into the Top 10, and even then KU was barely gonna be ranked #10.  That's just not worthy of a Top 4 national seed when you compare how many RPI Top 10 wins each of the other contenders earned.

Granted, the committees (in the past) often state one thing and do the opposite.

trojan would know better than me, but it seems like the resume needed to get a top 4 seed this year is more elite than in the past. For all the talk of parity, the top 6 teams have a combined ONE loss to a team outside of the RPI top 10. That's pretty remarkable. So yeah, Creighton this year ends up not having much of an argument, but I think they would've in many other seasons.

[horns1]

Nov 30, 2024 0:18:21 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 30, 2024 0:10:37 GMT -5 horns1 said:

That's just not worthy of a Top 4 national seed when you compare how many RPI Top 10 wins each of the other contenders earned.

It was possible down the stretch that Kentucky (current #9) didn't finish Top 10 and Kansas did. That would have put Creighton and Penn State with the same # of Top 10 wins.

It was always in Penn State's hands really of whether they got the spot or not. Truthfully, they weren't even a lock to me even earlier today unless they beat Nebraska or Stanford lost to Louisville. They took care of business and didn't even have to worry about scoreboard watching. 

Penn State hosting a regional was always more likely (over both Creighton and Stanford) which is why I consistently put them as a Top 4 through most every Bracketology this year. It was clear that Wisconsin, Stanford, and Creighton were the outside shots. Wisconsin really had at least a theoretical chance after they beat Penn State. But, none of them were most likely, but how much of a long-shot is debatable. I certainly saw paths - but I always liked Penn State's best.     

In the first reveal, Penn State was ranked #3 mainly due to their sweep of #4 Louisville (who beat Creighton).  Creighton was never gonna have an RPI Top 10 win as good as that of PSU.  I just don't think PSU was ever going to fall below Creighton (in the committee's eyes) just because they lost at Top 10 Wisconsin and/or at home against #1 Nebraska; those 2 losses wouldn't erase their win over RPI Top 3 Louisville.

[trojansc]

If anyone wants to believe in a miracle, Georgia Tech could still host IMO.

They beat Pitt and they get up to ~20-21 in RPI. Three T25 wins + a Top 4 caliber win could push them into that #15 or #16 spot - they have a H2H win over BYU which could help them with Baylor/TCU. They also beat Florida if the committee was thinking of some asinine reason to still seed Florida.

[WahineFan44]

Nov 30, 2024 0:40:03 GMT -5 trojansc said:

If anyone wants to believe in a miracle, Georgia Tech could still host IMO.

They beat Pitt and they get up to ~20-21 in RPI. Three T25 wins + a Top 4 caliber win could push them into that #15 or #16 spot - they have a H2H win over BYU which could help them with Baylor/TCU. They also beat Florida if the committee was thinking of some asinine reason to still seed Florida.

Was Penn state that one year the lowest rpi to get a seed?

[bbg95]

Nov 30, 2024 0:33:50 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 30, 2024 0:18:21 GMT -5 trojansc said:

It was possible down the stretch that Kentucky (current #9) didn't finish Top 10 and Kansas did. That would have put Creighton and Penn State with the same # of Top 10 wins.

It was always in Penn State's hands really of whether they got the spot or not. Truthfully, they weren't even a lock to me even earlier today unless they beat Nebraska or Stanford lost to Louisville. They took care of business and didn't even have to worry about scoreboard watching. 

Penn State hosting a regional was always more likely (over both Creighton and Stanford) which is why I consistently put them as a Top 4 through most every Bracketology this year. It was clear that Wisconsin, Stanford, and Creighton were the outside shots. Wisconsin really had at least a theoretical chance after they beat Penn State. But, none of them were most likely, but how much of a long-shot is debatable. I certainly saw paths - but I always liked Penn State's best.     

In the first reveal, Penn State was ranked #3 mainly due to their sweep of #4 Louisville (who beat Creighton).  Creighton was never gonna have an RPI Top 10 win as good as that of PSU.  I just don't think PSU was ever going to fall below Creighton (in the committee's eyes) just because they lost at Top 10 Wisconsin and/or at home against #1 Nebraska; those 2 losses wouldn't erase their win over RPI Top 3 Louisville.

Yeah, I don't think Creighton had a real shot if Penn State only had those three losses. The real question was whether Stanford could have gotten that spot if they beat Louisville. I would have given it to Penn State because I think Stanford losing to Miami has to matter, but it would have been close.

[trojansc]

Nov 30, 2024 0:41:10 GMT -5 WahineFan44 said:

Nov 30, 2024 0:40:03 GMT -5 trojansc said:

If anyone wants to believe in a miracle, Georgia Tech could still host IMO.

They beat Pitt and they get up to ~20-21 in RPI. Three T25 wins + a Top 4 caliber win could push them into that #15 or #16 spot - they have a H2H win over BYU which could help them with Baylor/TCU. They also beat Florida if the committee was thinking of some asinine reason to still seed Florida.

Was Penn state that one year the lowest rpi to get a seed?

#26. Since at least like 2010 yes, I am unsure about the brackets before that.