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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Sept 6, 2006 11:02:55 GMT -5
UConn So I have been trying to see where UConn is getting their ranking, and I think I have it figured out. It is based on their win over Portland St. Portland St is ranked 27th, with its only losses to #7 Oregon and #3 UConn .... So, when Washington plays Portland State next weekend they may boost their own Pablo ranking and return to the top 25? Not to mention make those other Huskies less of a standout. On a serious note, is RichKern.com going to be updated with this week's Pablo ranking? I'd like to see how Pablo is ranking some more teams that didn't make the top N list.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 6, 2006 11:14:21 GMT -5
So, when Washington plays Portland State next weekend they may boost their own Pablo ranking and return to the top 25? Not to mention make those other Huskies less of a standout. A big win for Washington would cause a lot of reordering, without a doubt. I might try this just to see... Probably not. It's just too early to be of much use overall.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 6, 2006 11:23:04 GMT -5
So, when Washington plays Portland State next weekend they may boost their own Pablo ranking and return to the top 25? Not to mention make those other Huskies less of a standout. . If Washington had played Portland St last night, at Portland St, and blew them off the court in 3, they would probably be ranked #3 right now, while UConn would drop to 7 or so (despite not playing at all)
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 6, 2006 11:39:52 GMT -5
Here's some alternate reality: Suppose Washington played Portland St last night and beat them badly. How would that affect the Pablo rankings. With that alternate reality, and through last night's matches...
1 Penn State 2 USC 3 Washington 4 Texas 5 UCLA 6 Santa Clara 7 UConn 8 Oregon 9 Nebraska 10 BYU 11 Florida 12 Stanford 13 New Mexico State 14 Arkansas 15 Michigan 16 Utah 17 California 18 Oklahoma 19 Wisconsin 20 Sacramento State 21 Purdue 22 Ohio State 23 Cal Poly 24 LSU 25 Iowa State
Of course, Ruffda will be mad because it boots Utah out of the top 15.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2006 11:48:00 GMT -5
I'm mad about something else, to tell you the truth...
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Post by chipNdink on Sept 6, 2006 12:02:00 GMT -5
Here's some alternate reality: Suppose Washington played Portland St last night and beat them badly. How would that affect the Pablo rankings. With that alternate reality, and through last night's matches... 1 Penn State 2 USC 3 Washington 4 Texas 5 UCLA 6 Santa Clara 7 UConn 8 Oregon 9 Nebraska 10 BYU 11 Florida 12 Stanford 13 New Mexico State 14 Arkansas 15 Michigan 16 Utah 17 California 18 Oklahoma 19 Wisconsin 20 Sacramento State 21 Purdue 22 Ohio State 23 Cal Poly 24 LSU 25 Iowa State Of course, Ruffda will be mad because it boots Utah out of the top 15. Wow, sounds like Portland St. is that elusive "6 degrees of separation" team you were searching for in that other thread. It seems like a match against them is what makes or breaks your entire ranking system. Seriously now, I can't help but think Pablo is not properly evaluating 5 game matches. Undisirregardlessly ignoring Portland St. for now, Washington's 5 game close loss to Texas, 3 game win over Ohio, combined with Wisconsin's 3 game loss to Texas, and 5 game close win over Ohio--would seem to obviously rank Washington over Wisconsin at the minimum. What gives?
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 6, 2006 12:14:01 GMT -5
Wow, sounds like Portland St. is that elusive "6 degrees of separation" team you were searching for in that other thread. It seems like a match against them is what makes or breaks your entire ranking system. Seriously now, I can't help but think Pablo is not properly evaluating 5 game matches. Undisirregardlessly ignoring Portland St. for now, Washington's 5 game close loss to Texas, 3 game win over Ohio, combined with Wisconsin's 3 game loss to Texas, and 5 game close win over Ohio--would seem to obviously rank Washington over Wisconsin at the minimum. What gives? I can tell you that the difference between Texas and Washington is 850 points. Recall that I am using an approach that combines the pure-points rating and a simple W/L model. In pure points, a 5 game match would basically be a wash. However, the win is about 1550 points, so when combined straight up, Texas should be ahead of Washington by 750 points. Therefore, it is not surprising to see Wash 850 points behind Texas. Wisconsin's difference is tempered by the win over Oklahoma, and apparently it was enough to move them back up. So in the end, Wash/Texas is perfectly handled by considering only the first weekend, because Washington's more recent matches have been mostly meaningless. OTOH, Wisconsin played better against better competition than Wash in the second week, and therefore indicated to Pablo that the first match loss was probably an abberation.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 8, 2006 7:22:41 GMT -5
For grins, I ran a mid-week Pablo update, just to see what effect last night's matches had on the rankings. Wash's win over Portland St helped them a lot, but likely not near as much as Texas's win over SC. That moved Wash way up, such that Portland St didn't end up dropping much (just to 31). As a result, although UConn has dropped, they still are in the top 10. Oregon still riding high, I'm not sure why.
The biggest drops were not a surprise. New Mexico St took a big hit after their loss to Wyoming, but the biggest drop was BYU, who went all the way to 38. Although Kansas only has one loss, Pablo has not liked their struggles against very weak opponents, and so they are not being treated nicely. An ugly loss to KU then hurt BYU a lot.
Things will likely be much better after the weekend.
Unofficial results as of Friday am 1 Penn State 2 Texas 3 USC 4 UCLA 5 Washington 6 Oregon 7 Florida 8 Nebraska 9 Santa Clara 10 UConn 11 Utah 12 Michigan 13 Arkansas 14 California 15 Wisconsin 16 Oklahoma 17 Cal Poly 18 Ohio State 19 Sacramento State 20 LSU 21 Purdue 22 Stanford 23 Tennessee 24 Illinois 25 Iowa State
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Post by reiker21 on Sept 8, 2006 10:13:10 GMT -5
Oregon at #6??? Give us a break. Every season they play the teams that are sure to give them a win. Went to 5 with Portland State. They should NOT be in the top 25 rankings
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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Sept 8, 2006 11:03:22 GMT -5
^ I wonder if it's the Portland State effect again. Oregon beat Portland State and beat Long Beach more convincingly than Portland State did. Like p-dub said, things will make more sense after the weekend.
And maybe Oregon really is better. three of their wins so far are against teams that were ranked higher than them last year.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2006 11:09:14 GMT -5
New Mexico State beat Wyoming, no?
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 8, 2006 11:30:19 GMT -5
Yeah. So I guess it was just the 4 gamer that Pablo didn't like. I think NMSU was living on the edge last weekend, and this tipped them over.
All I know is that they dropped from 8 to out of the top 25.
It also probably had a lot to do with other parts of their competition, too.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Sept 8, 2006 11:33:25 GMT -5
^ I wonder if it's the Portland State effect again. Oregon beat Portland State and beat Long Beach more convincingly than Portland State did. Like p-dub said, things will make more sense after the weekend. Note that a lot makes more sense now than it did on Monday, even, so, yeah, 3 more matches for everyone will help a lot. OTOH, I think it is interesting that Washington's win over Portland St was more of a boost for Washington than a knock on PSU. Of course, Texas's win probably contributed to that, too.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2006 11:37:11 GMT -5
Or a misplaced decimal point?
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Post by landon on Sept 8, 2006 11:38:49 GMT -5
is this a joke? who is pablo
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