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Post by happyvalleydrifter on Feb 14, 2007 12:21:26 GMT -5
I can see the Big Ten having 6-7 teams in the top 20 next year. The conference will probably end up something like this.
1) Penn State - Do I even have to elaborate? No reason this team doesnt win the Big Ten. T-2) Wisconsin - Strong returning core.. Dykstra and Jeffers should be able to keep this team at the top of the conference. T-2) Purdue - I think this is the year we've been waiting for from this team. A team of all Shondell recruits. This should be a great year for them. 4) Michigan - I'm gonna ride the maze wave this year. Led by strong defense and spectacular setting, this ought to be a really solid year for Michigan. 5) Minnesota - They'll have to deal with losing four starters, and a lot of defense, but hey could finish higher than fifth if the youth steps up. 6) Ohio State - Very young setting and not that much size, but still very potent. 7) Illinois - They made noise last season and they have a really solid class coming in. It's just a matter of putting ill together.. something they've struggled with recently. 8) Michigan State - It appears this program is headed in the right direction. Now just add the last-second transfer and stir. 9) Indiana - Not a completely awful first season for Dunbar. I hope she gets them turned around. 10)Northwestern - This is really hard for me because it appears that Northwestern has been slowly but surely moving up the ranks, but I have a hard time seeing them finish any higher than maybe 8th. They too need some key, unexpected wins. 11) Iowa - I really haven't seen anything looking like something positive about this program in a while. They will continue the "rebuliding process" this year.
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Post by Gorf on Feb 14, 2007 14:04:23 GMT -5
Why would MSU move down from 6th place in 2006 if they're headed in the right direction? I'd think moving down in the conference is the wrong direction. Except for people that don't like MSU then they'd probably think it's the right direction. I think this could be both an unpredictable Big Ten season with teams getting some well regarding frosh for 2007, probably some good transfers, graduations from 2006, and more maturity from the returning players. It could also be one of the most competitive conference seasons since 2002 when 8 teams finished at 10-10 or better - especially is some of the frosh play up to the high expectations that some people have for them in 2007. I expect Penn State to win the conference title again but I believe they'll lose at least 2-3 matches again. I think / hope Minnesota will again finish 2nd or 3rd in a battle with Wisconsin for those two spots, but could see them drop to 4th and potentially even 5th. I'd be more than a bit surprised to see them as low as 5th though. I could see any / all of the three fighting for the 3rd - 5th positions, or perhaps even 2nd but if injuries hit again I could see at least one of them dropping to the 7th - 9th spots at Illinois did last year. I mostly agree with you on Indiana, Northwestern and Iowa. I keep expecting a big season from Northwestern, but they never seem to be able to maintain their best level of play for the majority of a season. Michigan and Michigan State are confusing teams. They both seem to have increased their talent levels over the (at least) last few years but neither has shown the ability to break into the top 5. Michigan was at #5 for 2003 and Michigan State was at #5 for 2002 but neither has been back that high since. I have no idea what to expect from Ohio State, Illinois, and Purdue with their level of injuries over the past few years (and beyond for the Buckeyes and Illini).
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Post by becca on Feb 14, 2007 14:13:44 GMT -5
Purdue, I think sets a modern day record for ACL injuries. Four or five in recent years? What would the insurance tables say are the odds of that happening?
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Post by happyvalleydrifter on Feb 14, 2007 14:36:18 GMT -5
I included a reason for a drop by MSU.. Unless they get a miracle transfer.. And I like Sparty, I can plausibly see them anywhere from 4th to 8th.. that's just the way the conference will be this year.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Feb 14, 2007 14:50:40 GMT -5
Let's see:
Wischmeier Ukovich Williams Pierce
That's 4. Where are the other 2 or 3? Do you count Wischmeier as two (the first was the summer Shondell arrived, I think)
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Post by Gorf on Feb 14, 2007 15:23:36 GMT -5
Most of those were flukish type injuries weren't they?
Landing on someone's foot or that sort of thing?
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Feb 14, 2007 16:45:17 GMT -5
Ukovich got hurt when she went off the raised floor up at Michigan St. Other than that, I don't know what a "flukish" injury really is.
Williams went down during the spring tournament at Palos Courts. I can still see the play in my mind. It was just a weird twist. Wischmeier's 2nd (didn't see the first) was during an attack against Tennessee. She might have come down on someone's foot, but I don't remember her saying anything about that. And Pierce's was in practice (she was just recovering from a back injury).
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Post by bomber on Feb 14, 2007 17:40:58 GMT -5
I can see the Big Ten having 6-7 teams in the top 20 next year. The conference will probably end up something like this. T-2) Wisconsin - Strong returning core.. Dykstra and Jeffers should be able to keep this team at the top of the conference. Don't be surprised to see Jeffers move into the middle next season......Dykstra might play right side, or left out....and I mean really left out. This is the year for Dykstra to show what she can do, or can't do. I'm rooting for her...
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Post by Gorf on Feb 14, 2007 21:27:01 GMT -5
Another thing working against Michigan this year is that they're the odd team in the Big Ten for 2007.
In general (though not always) the odd team has a worse record the year they're the odd team than they had the year before they were the odd team.
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Post by verybasicdad on Feb 15, 2007 21:00:26 GMT -5
Ukovich has had two and a minicus tear this year, Wish had 2, Berg 1, Pierce 1, Em one and a lot of pain this year...is this due to thetraining? excessive weights??
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Post by AntennaMagnet on Feb 16, 2007 9:15:53 GMT -5
The excessive weight training leading to knee injuries in women athletes is an interesting question. On the other hand, no fem / quads lifting definitely is associated with ACL tears. The type of lifting might also be an issue. Specifically, power versus strength training. In power training, as I understand it, your repetitions are quick with lighter weights than strength lifting which requires you to use 70 to 80 percent of your maximal one time lift. Apparently there is evidence that power lifting improves lateral speed 4 fold greater than strength lifting whereas both lead to the same strength performance at the end of a 12 week trainig session. I don't know if power training has any impact on ACL tear prevention. Maybe half the conferences can go with power training and the other half with strength training and we could eventually find out if there is a difference.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Feb 16, 2007 12:17:30 GMT -5
As I understand it, Purdue has attributed most of its knee injuries to the old gym floor they used to play on. They just installed a brand new floor this past season because of it. How much actual, medical proof there is to that, I don't know. Well, Lisa Pierce is the exception to that rule, right?
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Post by happyvalleydrifter on Feb 16, 2007 12:46:43 GMT -5
Another thing working against Michigan this year is that they're the odd team in the Big Ten for 2007. In general (though not always) the odd team has a worse record the year they're the odd team than they had the year before they were the odd team. That's a good point. However, 'not always' is right. Sometimes teams find advantages to catching opponents on an odd week. I don't think that it should affect Michigan that much if they truly are a contender. I look forward to seeing what Zimmerman can do with that team.
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Post by Gorf on Feb 16, 2007 13:15:44 GMT -5
It doesn't track things like graduation and incoming recruits.
It's just a "peculiarity" that I've tracked for many years.
There is also the aspect of how the odd team impacts the other teams in the conference by altering travel partners.
With Iowa being the odd team last year it not only allowed both of their opponents to spend time focusing on their tendencies and players but it also made Wisconsin and Minnesota travel partners and arguable the most difficult road swing for the other teams in the conference for last season.
Normally Minnesota is paired with Iowa and Wisconsin is paired with Northwestern meaning that since Iowa has for many years been at the bottom of the Big Ten and Northwestern has frequently been there as well Wisconsin's and Minnesota's opponents each week spend the vast majority of their time focusing on them rather than on Iowa or Northwestern.
The same situation has been impacting Purdue (with their normal travel partner being Indiana) over the past few years.
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Post by mervynpumpkinhead on Feb 16, 2007 13:16:07 GMT -5
As I understand it, Purdue has attributed most of its knee injuries to the old gym floor they used to play on. They just installed a brand new floor this past season because of it. How much actual, medical proof there is to that, I don't know. The gym floor? What were they playing on, uneven concrete?
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