Top 12-15 for Next Fall

[caljr]

Just wanting to get a better feel for which teams will be contending next fall. I feel pretty good about the west coast - especially the PAC 10 and the Big West, but I would appreciate some help on other parts of the country. Here are some questions:

1. Is the SEC really as strong as the bids indicate this past year and is Florida ready to make a real run?
2. Can anyone challenge Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12? Will Oklahoma drop back to the bottom of the pack?
3. Are the glory days of Hawaii gone for good?
4. Will Penn State dominate the Big Ten and under-achieve in NCAA play? Who else in Big Ten are contenders - if any?
5. Break down the PAC 10. I like Stanford, but who are next 3-4?
6. Utah seemed to make noise this past season - are the for real and will they dominate BYU, Col. State, and others?
7. It appears as if Stanford, Nebraska, Penn State, and Texas have more talent than anyone else. Do you agree?

[Deleted]

The short answer

1. NO
2. NO, NO
3. NO
4. YES
5. YES
6. YES
7. YES

[Wolfgang]

I have discovered that the only time I like to go near Maples Pavilion is when I want to do a watercolor painting of it. Yeah, and that's from a distance.

[pedro el leon]

wolfgang said:

I have discovered that the only time I like to go near Maples Pavilion is when I want to do a watercolor painting of it. Yeah, and that's from a distance.

why waste the watercolors? all you need to do is pick up some dog poop and smear it on a canvas.



(it's still that horrible brown color, right?)

[OverAndUnder]

wolfgang said:

I have discovered that the only time I like to go near Maples Pavilion is when I want to do a watercolor painting of it. Yeah, and that's from a distance.

I feel the same way about John Dunning. From a distance he may look like my friend, even though we are at war.

[vbfanatic]

Here is a breakdown of the Big 12.

Nebraska - Not much to say here but with everyone but Mancuso and Busboom returning and a healthy Houghtelling, chances are they could go undefeated in Big 12 play. 1st place

Texas - Losing Acevedo will hurt their ball control a little but their only other loss is Todd who was good, but Doris should help significantly. Most likely 2nd place.

Texas A&M - Returns almost the entire team. Losing Hahn, will be significant but they return their OH's and Setters so they will be solid. 3rd -5th place

Missouri - The loss of Vanderkooi and Wilson will be huge for them and Yang will really have to step up for this team to challenge in the top 3. 4th-6th place

Colorado - Losing Nu'u at setter will be huge for them but they return a solid core of good players. Probably 5th or 6th place

K-State - Only lost one senior off last years team who had a horrendous season. Should be better next year if the outsides can produce. 4th-6th place

Oklahoma - Lost a ton of talent losing both middles, setter, OH and libero, but never count them out, they've tasted success and know how to work hard. 6th or 7th place

Baylor - Lost two significant starters in Guillard-Young and Leblanc but have a good core of young players. 7th or 8th place

Iowa State - Lost both leftsides and a middle and having young leftsides in the Big 12 is tough but return a solid setter and good middle.

Texas Tech - The loss of Sang, their all everything player last year will be significant. 9th-11th place

Kansas- The loss of Correa will be significant and Brown will have to carry a significant load along with some young outsides. 8th-11th place.

[Mix Breed-TEXAS,HI,LBSU]

caljr said:

Just wanting to get a better feel for which teams will be contending next fall. I feel pretty good about the west coast - especially the PAC 10 and the Big West, but I would appreciate some help on other parts of the country. Here are some questions:

1. Is the SEC really as strong as the bids indicate this past year and is Florida ready to make a real run?
2. Can anyone challenge Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12? Will Oklahoma drop back to the bottom of the pack?
3. Are the glory days of Hawaii gone for good?
4. Will Penn State dominate the Big Ten and under-achieve in NCAA play? Who else in Big Ten are contenders - if any?
5. Break down the PAC 10. I like Stanford, but who are next 3-4?
6. Utah seemed to make noise this past season - are the for real and will they dominate BYU, Col. State, and others?
7. It appears as if Stanford, Nebraska, Penn State, and Texas have more talent than anyone else. Do you agree?

Hawai'i's glory days are not over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hawai'i is still in the top 10...HELLO!!! they've manage to hold on to their rankings in the last two years higher than #10.......Hawai'i will always be a top ten vball program and one of the best I would say....I wouldn't say their glory days are over, I think you've mistaken Hawai'i with Long Beach ST.......

[beachman]

I predict that Hawaii will have a very difficult time next season maintaining a Top 10 ranking.....very difficult....the top six will be heads and shoulders above everyone else....Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, and Florida.....U$C, Washington, UCLA, will be next.....I just don't see Hawaii in the top 10, not now and not at any time in the season, certainly NOT at the END of the season!

[Deleted]

beachman said:

I predict that Hawaii will have a very difficult time next season maintaining a Top 10 ranking.....very difficult....the top six will be heads and shoulders above everyone else....Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, and Florida.....U$C, Washington, UCLA, will be next.....I just don't see Hawaii in the top 10, not now and not at any time in the season, certainly NOT at the END of the season!

LOL! Haven't you said this about Hawaii every season now since KW and LK left. You're track record isn't looking so good

[Mix Breed-TEXAS,HI,LBSU]

beachman said:

I predict that Hawaii will have a very difficult time next season maintaining a Top 10 ranking.....very difficult....the top six will be heads and shoulders above everyone else....Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, and Florida.....U$C, Washington, UCLA, will be next.....I just don't see Hawaii in the top 10, not now and not at any time in the season, certainly NOT at the END of the season!

People predicted Hawai'i woulnd't even be ranked top ten at the end of the season and yet they manage to, people also said Kanoe Kamana'o wasn't going to get her first-team AA honors yet again she did get it....We're just going to have to see how Hawai'i does this season, and Hawai'i will still be loaded on the OH's and the MB's and I'm pretty confident about the setting too so let's not do predictions just yet.....Who knows maybe the Beach will be back in the top ten....who knows.......things happen for a reason....We can only wait and see the out-come....

[roy]

beachman said:

I predict that Hawaii will have a very difficult time next season maintaining a Top 10 ranking.....very difficult....the top six will be heads and shoulders above everyone else....Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, and Florida.....U$C, Washington, UCLA, will be next.....I just don't see Hawaii in the top 10, not now and not at any time in the season, certainly NOT at the END of the season!

In ways I agree. The top spots will belong to Nebraska and Stanford. Penn State, Texas, Florida, UCLA, and the likes will also be in the top 10 at the beginning of the poll. But last year, we said that teams were going to have a tough time getting out of the regionals at Hawaii, Florida, and Texas. Unfortunately, injuries and other circumstances dropped them out of contention. Washington, who was supposed to be the easiest team hosting a regional, became the region no one wanted to go to.

I will disagree with Beachman regarding the end of the top season. Hawaii will likely end the season in the top 10. Assuming Hawaii doesn't get placed in a weird bracket like they did against Texas in 2005 or like Florida did in 2004, Hawaii can make it to the regionals (bearing injuries, etc.). Hawaii should have a much easier time in the WAC this year and like every other year, the Pac 10, Big 10, and Big 12 will knock each other's ranking down while Hawaii will likely keep moving up. They will end up with a fairly strong seed. How far they advance will depend on the region they get sent to.

[beachman]

pete said:

beachman said:

I predict that Hawaii will have a very difficult time next season maintaining a Top 10 ranking.....very difficult....the top six will be heads and shoulders above everyone else....Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, and Florida.....U$C, Washington, UCLA, will be next.....I just don't see Hawaii in the top 10, not now and not at any time in the season, certainly NOT at the END of the season!

LOL! Haven't you said this about Hawaii every season now since KW and LK left. You're track record isn't looking so good

I guess we will just have to "wait and see"

[beachman]

roy said:

beachman said:

I predict that Hawaii will have a very difficult time next season maintaining a Top 10 ranking.....very difficult....the top six will be heads and shoulders above everyone else....Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, and Florida.....U$C, Washington, UCLA, will be next.....I just don't see Hawaii in the top 10, not now and not at any time in the season, certainly NOT at the END of the season!

In ways I agree. The top spots will belong to Nebraska and Stanford. Penn State, Texas, Florida, UCLA, and the likes will also be in the top 10 at the beginning of the poll. But last year, we said that teams were going to have a tough time getting out of the regionals at Hawaii, Florida, and Texas. Unfortunately, injuries and other circumstances dropped them out of contention. Washington, who was supposed to be the easiest team hosting a regional, became the region no one wanted to go to.

I will disagree with Beachman regarding the end of the top season. Hawaii will likely end the season in the top 10. Assuming Hawaii doesn't get placed in a weird bracket like they did against Texas in 2005 or like Florida did in 2004, Hawaii can make it to the regionals (bearing injuries, etc.). Hawaii should have a much easier time in the WAC this year and like every other year, the Pac 10, Big 10, and Big 12 will knock each other's ranking down while Hawaii will likely keep moving up. They will end up with a fairly strong seed. How far they advance will depend on the region they get sent to.

I suspect that Dave will have to do some extremely creative scheduling for Hawaii to find a spot in the top 10 given the relative strength of other programs around the country.....given that the WAC is down next year, which you suspect will be the case, then that won't help Hawaii much in the ratings....with Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, Florida, U$C, UCLA, and Washington, all being teams who should be far superior to your Wahine, it doesn't leave much room to squeeze into that Top 10.....I haven't spent much time looking at the Pepperdines, Santa Clara's, other upper echelon Big 12 and Big 10 teams, oh and San Diego and others but once again, doesn't give your Wahine must chance of making it into the top 10.....

[IdahoBoy]

beachman said:

I suspect that Dave will have to do some extremely creative scheduling for Hawaii to find a spot in the top 10 given the relative strength of other programs around the country.....

Maybe... but we all know how great your predictions are.

given that the WAC is down next year, which you suspect will be the case, then that won't help Hawaii much in the ratings....

We'll see. WAC is still up from 3-years ago.

with Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, Florida, U$C, UCLA, and Washington, all being teams who should be far superior to your Wahine

Who in turn, are far superior to your toupee' led 9ers.

it doesn't leave much room to squeeze into that Top 10.....I haven't spent much time looking at the Pepperdines, Santa Clara's, other upper echelon Big 12 and Big 10 teams, oh and San Diego and others but once again, doesn't give your Wahine must chance of making it into the top 10.....

And even further to go for whatever you call the squad that Gimmarillo puts on the floor.

[roy]

beachman said:

I suspect that Dave will have to do some extremely creative scheduling for Hawaii to find a spot in the top 10 given the relative strength of other programs around the country.....given that the WAC is down next year, which you suspect will be the case, then that won't help Hawaii much in the ratings....with Nebraska, Stanford, Penn State, Texas, Florida, U$C, UCLA, and Washington, all being teams who should be far superior to your Wahine, it doesn't leave much room to squeeze into that Top 10.....I haven't spent much time looking at the Pepperdines, Santa Clara's, other upper echelon Big 12 and Big 10 teams, oh and San Diego and others but once again, doesn't give your Wahine must chance of making it into the top 10.....

True, but you have to consider that the AVCA poll doesn't typically take into consideration the strength of schedule. They simply look at wins and loses. You win, you don't move down (unless a team ranked above you loses to a team ranked below you and then you may drop a spot or two). But typcially, if you win your matches against anyone, you will continue to move up in the rankings. This is the case in 2004 when Hawaii didn't have a strong schedule but just continued to win and other teams above them lost. Likewise, we've seen teams like Eastern Washington end up ranked because they won and it had nothing to do with strength of schedule. If Hawaii can continue to win in the WAC, they have the opportunity to keep going up in the rankings.

Obviously this is a completely different scenario when you are talking about ranking in terms of RPI. Hawaii will struggle there (and will continue to have a weaker RPI due to the conference).