Attendance Prediction for Final Four

[puwave]

sjhaysuess said:

A section that's open when I buy tickets at 6:30 on game day...? What are the seating arrangements like, reserved seating?

They have basically two sections of seating. The lower section which is assigned seats and then for like four bucks less, the upper section where I think it's open seating...

I bought a couple tickets last week via UCLA's telephone ticket line and they're a couple rows in front of what the seating chart labels as "media".... (those will probably be open too )

[TheProfessor]

Beachman said:

Let's see here,,,,,,UCLA will not draw well, even at home. Pepperdine never draws well, even at home especially on the road.....Penn State and Ohio State will not travel well......all in all the attendance figures will be abysmal.....no BYU, Hawaii, or Long Beach.....nice move NCAA, you people are real geniuses!

LOL! Where do you come up with this stuff?

Hmm... let's see here. Here's the attendance figures for the history of the Final Four since 1973, from the NCAA website. UCLA hosted in 1971 and 1972, but they don't have attendance figures listed for those years.
www.ncaasports.com/volleyball/mens/story/7290316


Here are the attendance figures for each year the championships were held in Pauley Pavilion, along with who played in the title game.

1975: UCLA def. UCSB
Semifinals: 3,500
Finals: 8,000

1977: USC def. Ohio State
Semifinals: 652
Finals: 4,500

1979: UCLA def. USC
Semifinals: 770
Finals: 6,100

1984: UCLA def. Pepperdine
Semifinals: 3,089
Finals: 9,809

1985: Pepperdine def. USC
Semifinals: 1,530
Finals: 6,378

1987: UCLA def. USC
Semifinals: 2,737
Finals: 8,952

1989: UCLA def. Stanford
Semifinals: 2,192
Finals: 7,244

1993: UCLA def. Cal State Northridge
Semifinals: 2,536
Finals: 8,482

1996: UCLA def. Hawaii
Semifinals: 3,708
Finals: 7,688

1999: BYU def. Long Beach State (how'd they get in?)
Semifinals: 5,487
Finals: 8,026


The lowest recorded attendance, BTW, in title game history was in 2000, when UCLA beat Ohio State in a match hosted by IPFW. Only 2,738 were there to witness that match. Doesn't say much for the Midwest fan base.

From the years UCLA hosted the Final Four, 1977 was the worst attended, when USC and Ohio State went at it. Other than that year, there's always been over 6,000 people in attendance for the title match, and in the last 25 years, at least 2,000 for the semifinals.


UCLA and Pepperdine don't draw? The last time UCLA faced Pepperdine in the finals at UCLA was 1984, and the 12,898 that showed up for the Final Four was the 2nd highest in NCAA history up to that point. And the 9,809 people that showed up for the title game was a new all-time record up to that point.

And the last time UCLA faced Pepperdine in the finals at any location was in 1998 at Hawaii, and all they did then was set a new all-time attendance record, with 18,901 fans in attendance for the Final Four matches. The 9,822 fans that showed up for the final remains the NCAA record to this day.


But yes, go on repeating to yourself that UCLA and Pepperdine won't draw well. ;D

[DaRookie]

After that dissertation response, you are truly TheProfessor. You do know how to deal with the facts. Keep it coming!

[sjhaysuess]

That's when UCLA was well-liked and was completely dominant. This is now.

[beachman]

I guess we will just have to see what happens here. The last two at Pauley had Hawaii and Long Beach State, plus BYU, who literally turned out well over half of the total crowd when Long Beach played them. I still don't think that you will see crowds anywhere near the numbers of the past. If you do, I will stand corrected!

[Denmark]

sjhaysuess said:

A section that's open when I buy tickets at 6:30 on game day...? What are the seating arrangements like, reserved seating? I have 2 day shipping on my lens which shipped this morning so I should be able to get great pictures from halfway up the first section at least.

Good luck sjhaysuess, on finding a seat on the floor section. As of 4 PM there is only one $28 or $15 seat left on the floor section (first level). Unless you want to pay $75, then you'll find good seats. There are seats left for the second and third (nosebleed) levels. Looks like attendance will be good tonight.

[StanfordFan]

Does anyone know if there are any tickets left for tonight, even in the general admission area? The only source for tickets is UCLA's ticket office, which is closed for the day, dumb*sses.

[sjhaysuess]

I have a ticket for the championship already so that's good. Hopefully we'll score decent seats for the matchs tonight.

[beachman]

StanfordFan said:

Does anyone know if there are any tickets left for tonight, even in the general admission area? The only source for tickets is UCLA's ticket office, which is closed for the day, dumb*sses.

Judging by what I saw I would say that there were about 7,000 available seats!

[sjhaysuess]

buy $10 tickets, they let you move down once the match starts I could've moved to the bottom of the 2nd section but sat in the middle of it with some friends.

[TheProfessor]

Beachman said:

I guess we will just have to see what happens here. The last two at Pauley had Hawaii and Long Beach State, plus BYU, who literally turned out well over half of the total crowd when Long Beach played them. I still don't think that you will see crowds anywhere near the numbers of the past. If you do, I will stand corrected!

Whelp, according to the Pepperdine website's recap of their match, 5,125 fans were in attendance tonight for the semifinals. There's no way to distinguish if the fans were there for only the first or the second match, or if they were there for both.


So actually, this was the largest attendance ever for a semifinal match in Pauley Pavilion in which UCLA played in. Even taking UCLA out of the equation, it is the second-largest semifinal crowd in Pauley Pavilion history, with only 1999's semifinals having a larger crowd.

Anyway, it seems like they've already exceeded your prediction of 4,000 in attendance. Every year there are more people who show up for the NCAA title game than for the semifinals, so unless we suddenly defy 30 consecutive years of history, there will be more than 5,000 people in Pauley Pavilion for the final on Saturday too.

Given that Pauley seats a bit over 12,000, you had a very good eye to estimate approximately 7,000 empty seats. Good job!

But just imagine all those empty seats back in 1977, when only 652 showed up to the semis. Or the 10,000 empty seats in 1989 when UCLA beat Penn State and Stanford beat Ball State in the semis.



BTW, interestingly enough, in last year's title game at Hawaii, only 4,105 came out to see BYU beat Long Beach State for the NCAA title. But when BYU beat Long Beach State for the 1999 title at UCLA, 8,026 showed up to see that.

But don't think that Hawaiians won't go watch volleyball if their team isn't in it. In 1998, when Hawaii hosted UCLA and Pepperdine in the final, a record 9,822 people showed up for that match. Trust me, those weren't all UCLA and Pepperdine fans.

For whatever reason, Hawaiians showed up in mass droves to see that in 1998, but did not do so similarly in 2004.

[roy]

TheProfessor said:

BTW, interestingly enough, in last year's title game at Hawaii, only 4,105 came out to see BYU beat Long Beach State for the NCAA title. But when BYU beat Long Beach State for the 1999 title at UCLA, 8,026 showed up to see that.

But don't think that Hawaiians won't go watch volleyball if their team isn't in it. In 1998, when Hawaii hosted UCLA and Pepperdine in the final, a record 9,822 people showed up for that match. Trust me, those weren't all UCLA and Pepperdine fans.

For whatever reason, Hawaiians showed up in mass droves to see that in 1998, but did not do so similarly in 2004.

I can help to answer this. In part, I believe Hawaii started selling Final Four tickets early on in the season. A lot of the Hawaii fans bought their tickets early. Hawaii was packing the stands in 1998, and I also think season ticket holders had first choice in keeping their seats. Hawaii also fielded a pretty strong team that year, so a lot of the Hawaii faithful hoped that the home team would also be a part of it. When the finals came, add UCLA in the mix. UCLA had been to Hawaii every year during as a part of the Outrigger tournament. So the fans having already bought their tickets came out to watch and hope to see UCLA lose.

In 2004, Hawaii fielded a team that was suppose to be a rebuilding year. Most fans knew Hawaii was not going to play and the attendance figures have been dropping since 1998. I suspect had the Final Four been placed in Hawaii in 2003 with Costas, Zimet, and Ching still playing for Hawaii, the attendance figures would have been higher.

I also don't know what the NCAA is counting. Hawaii's attendance figures tend to be "tickets sold" and not actual headcounts of how many people come through the gate. So, Hawaii's numbers may also be inflated.

[sistahsledge]

TheProfessor said:

BTW, interestingly enough, in last year's title game at Hawaii, only 4,105 came out to see BYU beat Long Beach State for the NCAA title. But when BYU beat Long Beach State for the 1999 title at UCLA, 8,026 showed up to see that.

But don't think that Hawaiians won't go watch volleyball if their team isn't in it. In 1998, when Hawaii hosted UCLA and Pepperdine in the final, a record 9,822 people showed up for that match. Trust me, those weren't all UCLA and Pepperdine fans.

For whatever reason, Hawaiians showed up in mass droves to see that in 1998, but did not do so similarly in 2004.

I can see how this would happen. As a Vball fan with no particular school allegiance, I would be much more inclined to go to a big Pepp/UCLA showdown than a BYU/LBSU match.

That 1998 final had some big names--Naeve, Taliaferro, Roumain,etc. It just seemed to have more buzz going into it. But any championship match between the Bruins and Waves is always like the Clash of the Titans of collegiate volleyball.

Last years BYU/LBSU matchup didn't have any "star quality". Ironically, it was a much more dramatic match, going five games.

[bigfan]

sjhaysuess said:

buy $10 tickets, they let you move down once the match starts I could've moved to the bottom of the 2nd section but sat in the middle of it with some friends.

Did the same thing. Announced crowd was 5800, poor showing. The finals will probably push that # we had Thurs night.

[beachman]

bigfan said:

Did the same thing. Announced crowd was 5800, poor showing. The finals will probably push that # we had Thurs night.

They may have sold 5,800 tickets( a lot of LBS fans who already bought tickets didn't attend) but there were probably more like 5,000 actually there, maybe a few less!