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Post by volleytology on Oct 23, 2012 14:47:28 GMT -5
Had this in the RPI thread, but thought it could stand on it's own. As we get closer to Selection Day, it'll be interesting to see how these fluctuate. My first impression of this year's teams is that there aren't many mid-majors. Seems to be the big boys have figured out how RPI works and the cream has risen to the top.
At-Large bids as of 10/22 (Taking out highest ranked team in each conference as auto-bid winner and counting down strictly along RPI lines; which in the past few years has been the case)
1. Nebraska 3
2. UCLA 5
3. Oregon 6
4. Kansas 8
5. Minnesota 9
6. Washington 11
7. Kansas State 12
8. USC 14
9. Tennessee 16
10. Miami 17
11. San Diego 19
12. Kentucky 20
13. Oklahoma 21
14. Ohio State 22
15. Purdue 23
16. North Carolina 24
17. Arkansas 25
18. Michigan 26
19. Texas A&M 27
20. NC State 28
21. Pepperdine 29
22. St. Mary's 31
23. Illinois 32
24. Marquette 33
25. Oregon State 35
26. Wichita State 36
27. Iowa State 37
28. Notre Dame 40
29. Cal 41
30. Northwestern 42
31. Santa Clara 43
32. Michigan State 44
33. Arizona 45
(some of these teams will have issues with finishing with a winning record: St. Mary's, Illinois and Cal;)
Next 4: Northern Iowa, Az State, Mizzou, Georgia Tech
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Post by MTC on Oct 23, 2012 16:45:21 GMT -5
A headscratcher when realize that Michigan State just whipped up on Michigan.
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Post by spikerthemovie on Oct 23, 2012 17:14:33 GMT -5
Less of a headscratcher when you look at MSU's pitiful non-conference opponents.
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Post by baywatcher on Oct 23, 2012 18:00:52 GMT -5
Pac 12 may get only 5 in this year; the Cal/OSU/ASU group may have enough wins, but do you eally want a 16-14 team, plus RPI may be questionable. Big West looks for only one, as does the WAC. Not sure about the MWC, Colorado State and who? That leaves a lot of openings for the WCC.
of the above list, Cal, Northwestern, Arizona, even Oregon State look vulnerable due to upcoming losses; Missouri seems to be weakening, while ASU is going to have to win a big match somewhere. Illinois also has to win, but is a more understandable entry at something like 16-14, due to the SOS and a couple of big wins, something lacking in Cal, Arizona, ASU. Santa Clara has a lot of tough matches ahead and should slip away in the RPI game. So does Georgia Tech sneak in as a fifth ACC team, or sixth? Errg.
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Post by volleytology on Oct 23, 2012 19:00:33 GMT -5
Pac 12 may get only 5 in this year; the Cal/OSU/ASU group may have enough wins, but do you eally want a 16-14 team, plus RPI may be questionable. Big West looks for only one, as does the WAC. Not sure about the MWC, Colorado State and who? That leaves a lot of openings for the WCC. of the above list, Cal, Northwestern, Arizona, even Oregon State look vulnerable due to upcoming losses; Missouri seems to be weakening, while ASU is going to have to win a big match somewhere. Illinois also has to win, but is a more understandable entry at something like 16-14, due to the SOS and a couple of big wins, something lacking in Cal, Arizona, ASU. Santa Clara has a lot of tough matches ahead and should slip away in the RPI game. So does Georgia Tech sneak in as a fifth ACC team, or sixth? Errg. Good analysis |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 23, 2012 19:08:01 GMT -5
I think Arizona is the most likely sixth entry from the PAC-12. They should likely have the required above-0.500 record, and they should likely have the RPI to get in. If both of those are true, I see no reason why they wouldn't be selected.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 23, 2012 19:27:33 GMT -5
I think Arizona is the most likely sixth entry from the PAC-12. They should likely have the required above-0.500 record, and they should likely have the RPI to get in. If both of those are true, I see no reason why they wouldn't be selected. If any of ASU, Cal, and Zona win enough to stay above .500, they will make it in. Edit: or OSU. Really, winning enough matches to get there will do it for them. |
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Post by haw2991 on Oct 23, 2012 19:31:56 GMT -5
I think Arizona is the most likely sixth entry from the PAC-12. They should likely have the required above-0.500 record, and they should likely have the RPI to get in. If both of those are true, I see no reason why they wouldn't be selected. I'm saying ASU has the best chance considering they have the most wins but I wouldn't be at all surprised if both Arizona's get swept at the Bay this week. |
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Post by geddyleemarvin on Oct 23, 2012 19:51:25 GMT -5
If Cal can keep their nose above .500, they'll get in - but in order for them to do that, they have to beat somebody above them, and they have not looked capable of hanging with any of the top five this season. Never say never, though.
UA and ASU will probably end up with RPI's in the 50's, zero big wins and a handful of bad losses. The other problem is that neither of them are very good volleyball teams. One of them might just squeak in, but neither are going to look like the prettiest girl at the dance to the selection committee.
OSU flatlined in the desert, and need to regroup fast. Anything less than a sweep in the mountains is going to put them in danger, because their RPI has been plummeting, and there doesn't look to be a whole lot more wins on the Beav's schedule the way they're playing.
Of course, if any of the above can knock off a UCLA, Oregon, Stanford etc, their fortunes will shift dramatically. Not sure if I'm seeing that happening, there just seems to be too big a gap between fifth and sixth place (Stanford's zombie impression in Pullman notwithstanding).
What might help the Pac 12 - along with the WCC - is that other conferences out West aren't very good this year. Big West, WAC, MWC are all one bid conferences. Their relative suckitude could be beneficial to a Pac team on the bubble.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 23, 2012 20:32:15 GMT -5
Arizona really needs to beat Cal this weekend, I think. But if they do, I think they have a good chance of getting in.
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Post by qc on Oct 23, 2012 21:13:41 GMT -5
I will guess that Creighton(#34), Wichita State(#36) and Northern Iowa(#46) have good shots to make the tourney from the MVC. This depends on how teams like Oregon State, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Illinois, etc end up in the RPI rankings and on their W/L records. How many of the Pac 12 teams will end up at 0.500 or below? OSU 13-9 (@ Utah, @ Colorado, ...) ASU 14-9 (@ Stanford, @ Cal, ...) UA 12-9 ( stanford, @ Cal, ...) Cal 10-10 (UA, ASU, ...) (Illinois 10-10) |
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Post by herdmentality on Oct 24, 2012 0:57:21 GMT -5
I think Arizona is the most likely sixth entry from the PAC-12. They should likely have the required above-0.500 record, and they should likely have the RPI to get in. If both of those are true, I see no reason why they wouldn't be selected. If Cal beats Arizona this weekend, they will be in driver's seat over Arizona for the 6th spot by virtue of the sweep. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 24, 2012 1:12:59 GMT -5
I think Arizona is the most likely sixth entry from the PAC-12. They should likely have the required above-0.500 record, and they should likely have the RPI to get in. If both of those are true, I see no reason why they wouldn't be selected. If Cal beats Arizona this weekend, they will be in driver's seat over Arizona for the 6th spot by virtue of the sweep. Cal is in real trouble getting above 0.500. |
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Post by bluecougarnation on Oct 24, 2012 2:20:34 GMT -5
No BYU?(no 15 RPI)
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Post by leftcoaster71 on Oct 24, 2012 2:22:45 GMT -5
This is only for the possible At-Large bids into the tourney. BYU should get the automatic big from the WCC. |
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