Simulated NCAA Tournament

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Since I apparently don't waste enough of my life doing volleyball stuff, I thought I'd play around and do a tournament simulation. You may recall that the whole reason I figured out the current Pablo model was because I was trying to simulate matches based on Pablo differences, so it's actually pretty easy. Basically, I use the Pablo difference to calculate the point probability, and create a simulation (easily done in excel - includes a .10 sideout advantage for the receiving team, home court is used)

Recall these are single events, and so don't mean much overall (see Final Four probabilities for an assessment), but they are fun to look at.

First is the first round. Went pretty much according to favorites, with one notable exception. Comments after

Penn State over Binghamton 25-19 ,25-18 ,25-16


Bowling Green over Yale 19-25 ,23-25 ,18-25


Ohio State over Notre Dame 16-25 ,25-21 ,25-19 ,10-25 ,15-10


Kentucky over East Tennessee State 20-25 ,21-25 ,25-21 ,22-25


Florida State over Hofstra 25-23 ,25-14 ,25-20


Purdue over Colorado State 18-25 ,25-22 ,19-25 ,19-25


Creighton over Marquette 22-25 ,25-19 ,25-22 ,18-25 ,15-11


Minnesota over Liberty 16-25 ,14-25 ,11-25


Oregon over Northern Colorado 25-22 ,25-15 ,25-21


Dayton over Pepperdine 25-21 ,18-25 ,27-29 ,22-25


Arizona State over Oklahoma 13-25 ,16-25 ,19-25


BYU over New Mexico State 19-25 ,25-22 ,24-26 ,19-25


Central Arkansas over Washington 22-25 ,25-14 ,20-25 ,25-12 ,9-15


Hawaii over Santa Clara 23-25 ,25-22 ,19-25 ,21-25


Kansas State over Northern Iowa 23-25 ,25-15 ,25-22 ,27-25


Nebraska over Maryland Eastern Shore 13-25 ,15-25 ,17-25


Texas over Colgate 25-14 ,25-15 ,22-25 ,25-12


Texas A&M over NC State 25-23 ,14-25 ,22-25 ,17-25


Miami-FL over College of Charleston 25-23 ,25-13 ,25-19


Florida over Tulsa 24-26 ,18-25 ,25-27


Kansas over Cleveland State 25-19 ,25-21 ,25-19


Wichita State over Arkansas 22-25 ,25-19 ,22-25 ,25-20 ,16-14


Saint Marys over San Diego State 15-25 ,25-18 ,26-24 ,13-25 ,15-10


USC over Fairfield 15-25 ,20-25 ,12-25


UCLA over LIU Brooklyn 26-24 ,25-19 ,25-22


Michigan State over San Diego 25-23 ,19-25 ,25-20 ,18-25 ,16-14


Michigan over Tennessee 19-25 ,23-25 ,17-25


Louisville over Belmont 23-25 ,24-26 ,15-25


Iowa State over IPFW 27-25 ,25-18 ,25-14


California over North Carolina 26-24 ,25-21 ,17-25 ,24-26 ,15-13


Western Kentucky over Loyola Marymount 20-25 ,17-25 ,27-25 ,25-20 ,16-14


Stanford over Jackson State 16-25 ,22-25 ,17-25

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

OUCH! Washington goes down in the first round to Central Arkansas! The Huskies are flabbergasted. Look at the scores, shades of the Stanford match. Opens the door for Hawaii.

In this version, Cal pulled out the win over UNC in 5, and Kansas St pulled off a mild upset.

[gogophers]

Texas loses a set to Colgate? in volleyball?

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Second round scores. Biggest upset is Minnesota falling to Creighton.



Penn State over Bowling Green 25-14 ,25-27 ,25-21 ,25-23


Ohio State over Kentucky 23-25 ,25-20 ,25-19 ,12-25 ,15-11


Florida State over Purdue 25-23 ,25-22 ,25-18


Creighton over Minnesota 26-24 ,25-15 ,19-25 ,18-25 ,15-11


Oregon over Dayton 25-20 ,25-19 ,25-18


BYU over Arizona State 22-25 ,25-23 ,22-25 ,15-25


Hawaii over Central Arkansas 19-25 ,22-25 ,21-25


Nebraska over Kansas State 25-22 ,21-25 ,15-25 ,16-25


Texas over Texas A&M 20-25 ,20-25 ,25-23 ,25-22 ,15-11


Florida over Miami-FL 22-25 ,12-25 ,22-25


Wichita State over Kansas 25-16 ,22-25 ,22-25 ,27-25 ,11-15


USC over Saint Marys 20-25 ,26-28 ,27-29


UCLA over Michigan State 25-15 ,25-18 ,25-18


Michigan over Louisville 20-25 ,25-22 ,25-21 ,17-25 ,15-13


California over Iowa State 18-25 ,28-26 ,25-21 ,16-25 ,9-15


Stanford over Western Kentucky 17-25 ,19-25 ,10-25

[rampageripster]

At first I was annoyed that we would be taken to 5 by ND... but now I'm ok with it... ESPECIALLY if BG takes a set off of PSU (teehee)

[n00b]

It would appear your system GREATLY underestimates the disparity between top teams and teams in the 150-200 range. Not the biggest concern overall when looking at a ranking system (because honestly, who really cares if Texas was a 99.5% or 99.9999% favorite last night), but something worth noting I think.

[Barefoot In Kailua]

I like the simulations, let it be!

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 30, 2012 13:17:23 GMT -5 gogophers said:

Texas loses a set to Colgate? in volleyball?

After blowing away the first two sets, they went completely down the bench. I think the manager was setting in the third set.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 30, 2012 14:17:55 GMT -5 Barefoot In Kailua said:

I like the simulations, let it be!

Yeah, you just like that Hawaii made it to the sweet 16. Well, their ride ends there (although they pushed Nebraska hard, taking the first two and then dropping three)

Penn State over Ohio State 25-17 ,26-24 ,25-22


Florida State over Creighton 25-15 ,25-27 ,32-30 ,25-16


Oregon over BYU 25-21 ,25-22 ,25-17


Nebraska over Hawaii 25-21 ,27-25 ,20-25 ,22-25 ,11-15


Texas over Florida 25-21 ,25-14 ,22-25 ,25-20


USC over Wichita State 20-25 ,25-23 ,17-25 ,18-25


UCLA over Michigan 20-25 ,25-18 ,25-17 ,25-27 ,15-13


Stanford over California 24-26 ,12-25 ,12-25

[pogoball]

Stanford breathing a virtual sigh of relief. Michigan has pwned Stanford in the tournament.

Of course, I kinda doubt that pablo takes that into consideration.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Regional Finals

Exciting match at Purdue. Penn State jumps out to big lead, but Florida State doesn't give up. Turns it around in the third set. Penn St needed that 4th, but couldn't pull it off, and then the Seminoles earn a return trip to the final four.

Florida State over Penn State 25-20 ,25-13 ,15-25 ,23-25 ,9-15


After a lousy first set, Oregon picks it up in Lincoln. Last three sets are competitive, but Oregon pulls them all out. John Cook swears profusely on national TV, although there are no blows exchanged between coaches.


Oregon over Nebraska 16-25 ,25-23 ,25-21 ,25-22



Five VERY competitive sets in Austin. This could go either way. In the end, it came down to a controversial touch call in the fifth set. I thought the home team was supposed to get those?

USC over Texas 23-25 ,25-23 ,25-21 ,21-25 ,15-17


An experienced UCLA team was not intimidated by their conference rivals, and makes a return trip to the final four.

UCLA over Stanford 25-21 ,17-25 ,25-21 ,25-23

Pretty interesting that three of the final four teams are the same as last year! Bloody amazing, in fact (I'm honestly not fudging anything; it's all just cut and paste)

Three pac 12 teams.

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

In the first semi-final, Florida St uses it's Final Four experience from last year to its advantage to defeat Oregon.


Florida State over Oregon 25-15 ,22-25 ,25-18 ,26-24


USC jumps out in the second semi, but UCLA wins the next two. Comes down to the 5th set, and, once again, it comes down to controversial touch call in the fifth, which again goes in USC's favor. Karch Kiraly starts to wonder how much Mick Haley has paid the officials to catch such breaks? Mick says in his post-game comments that matches are never decided on a single call.


USC over UCLA 25-18 ,25-21 ,17-25 ,17-25 ,15-13

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

After the excitement of the semi-finals, the final match is pretty boring on the whole, but not for the fans of Florida St, as the Seminoles win it all!

Florida State over USC 19-25 ,25-21 ,25-18 ,25-20

[c4ndlelight]

Who ended up atop the Pablo simulations last year?

[jagdpanther]

I'm not sure which would be worse, seeing Nebraska or FSU win... I hate FSU, a lot, but I feel like I've become marginally softer towards them over the past few years. I can't believe it's been almost 15 years since I lived down there...