It is the 4th sport (behind Walsh/Ross, Fendrick/Sweat and Summer/Day).
They've already lost it for The Hague, Long Beach and Klagenfurt. The last 2 slams take into account more tournaments than just Gstaad, so it isn't possible to calculate right now.
Stare Jablonki will take into account Gstaad, Hague and Long Beach.
Brazil (assuming it happens) will take into account those 3 + Klagenfurt and Stare Jablonki.
Barring injuries, wildcards, team switches, etc.
Fopma/Pavlik will be in Gstaad and Long Beach
Carico/Hochevar will be in Hague, Long Beach and Klagenfurt.
For Stare Jablonki, Carico/Hochevar are looking at approximately 1350 + points from their finishes in The Hague and Long Beach.
For the same tournament Fopma/Pavlik are looking at approximately 820 + points from their finishes in Gstaad and Long Beach.
So Fopma/Pavlik have to make up 530 points in two tournaments, which is a fairly tall order.
For sake of illustration, let's say Hochevar/Carico get 25ths in both their tournaments. That would give them 1690 points. Fopma/Pavlik would need two 5ths in their 2 tournaments to pull back ahead of them. If Fopma/Pavlik get a 9th in Gstaad, they will need a 4th in Long Beach to even have a chance. A 17th, they will need a 3rd in Long Beach and a 25th and they will need a silver in Long Beach.
I guess Hochevar/Carcio could lose in the qualifier in The Hague which would change the worst case scenarios for them a little, but you get the point.
Bottom line, Fopma/Pavlik are going to have to play significantly better than they have all year plus Hochevar/Carico will need to lose early.