Post by trojansc on Oct 27, 2014 3:01:13 GMT -5
This is an updated breakdown for at-large and automatic bids by conference, all of the RPI rankings discussed are as of the week of 11/3.
America East
The America East Conference leader as of now is New Hampshire (8-1). The Wildcats won the America East conference tournament in 2013 but were ousted in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament as they were sent to #6 Southern California. The 2014 America East tournament will determine the conference's only NCAA-Tournament participant as they will not receive an at-large bid. Only the top four teams will be in the conference tournament. Watch out for Albany - who is the only team in the America East to defeat New Hampshire this season. The top-seeded team hosts the conference tournament. Dark Horse is Binghamton, who went 2-13 in non-conference but is 6-3 in conference play, good for second place in the standings. It appears that New Hampshire will be the #1 seed, with Albany/Stony Brook/Binghamton being 2-4. UMBC will have to win their last two games and hope Albany or Stonybrook lose the rest of their games.
Atlantic 10
The A-10 will also be a 1-bid conference since nobody in the conference has a great RPI. Dayton, at 23-5 and 10-1 in conference, sits atop the standings but is still ranked #106 in RPI. The top six will be invited to the A-10 tournament, and strangely, it looks like the top six are pretty clear. The other five teams all have three or four losses (VCU, Saint Louis, Duquense, Rhode Island, and George Washington). Saint Louis beat Purdue this season, so they may be a tough out in the A-10 tournament. La Salle, George Mason, Fordham, and Davidson's seasons will come to an end in a few weeks.
Big Sky
8 teams will play in the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The top 8 teams will be the teams with the best conference record, regardless of division. The favorite has to be Idaho State, at 11-1 in conference. North Dakota, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, and Idaho are all teams that are vying for the #2 seed in the tournament, which would be important so they would not have to face ISU until the Championship.
Big South
It looked like Liberty was the clear favorite of the Big South but after going 9-0 in conference the Flames dropped their first match to defending Big South Champion, and #2 in conference, Radford. Liberty (9-1) still remains a game ahead of Radford (8-2). Their is a 8-team tournament, so upsets may happen, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a Liberty/Radford Big South Championship. Don't be too surprised if you see Coastal Carolina in the NCAA's, the dark horse at #3 in conference.
Colonial
Hofstra was leading the conference but after a Towson upset, College of Charleston is now tied with Hofstra at 10-2. Towson becomes now a dark-horse at the #3 spot.. The Top six make it to the conference tournament, and it is almost certain it will be UNCW, Delaware, and James Madison joining the three mentioned above.
Horizon
Another one-bid conference, the bid will come from the winner of the 6-team Horizon tournament. Oakland and 2013 Champion Milwaukee are tied for 1st in the conference standings. Count on Youngstown State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparasio, and Cleveland State to be in the conference tournament.
Ivy
Yale was rolling through the Ivy League, but trouble is now brewing for the Bulldogs. Harvard and Yale are both tied for 1st place, but Harvard has beaten Yale twice. They were stunned by Brown and fell to Dartmouth. Things are complicated now, Harvard owns the tie-breaker over Yale. Yale will have to finish a game ahead of Harvard to advance to the NCAA's. Meanwhile, Princeton is the only other team eligible to win the Championship, and they are one game behind both Harvard and Yale. Princeton has four games left, including Harvard and Yale. If they both games, they may be in a great position to win the conference. If they drop either match, I think they are probably out.
Metro Atlantic
All 10 teams from the MAAC advance to the conference tournament, so even Quinnipiac at 0-14 in conference still has a chance to advance to the NCAAs. The two-time defending MAAC Champions, Fairfield, are tied for 3rd in conference standings. Marist, at 12-2, leads the MAAC. The conference is a toss up, and of course, 1-bid only. Dark-Horse: Rider and Manhattan, the latter just upset #1 Marist (sweep!)
Mid Eastern
MEAC Conference Tournament will determine the league's lone bid. Four teams from the North and Four from the South advance to the 3-day tournament. Hampton is undefeated in the North, Florida A&M undefeated in the South. Vendula Strakova continues to put up great numbers for Hampton. I look for Hampton to repeat as champions and take the auto bid to the 2014 NCAAs.
Ohio Valley
OVC looks to be a toss-up as well. Murray State is atop the conference at 11-1. The top 8 teams advance to the conference tournament, the bottom 4 of 12 could still fight their way in so who know's what's going to happen in the OVC. Dark-Horse: Austin Peay. The only team in the OVC to top Murray State this season.
Southern
Samford and Furman lead the SoCon with a 10-2 records. All 9 teams advance to the SoCon conference tournament, so everyone is alive. North Carolina Greensboro and Mercer are the only teams to beat Samford.
Southland
Southland Conference features an 8-team conference tournament, and it looks like seven of the 8 are clear. Their will be a battle between Nicholls, Lamar, and McNeese State to round out the tournament. Stephen F. Austin remains undefeated as they beat Central Arkansas on November 1st in Nacogdoches, TX. The Sugar Bears had a tough weekend as they were swept by Stephen F. Austin and Northwestern State. They remain #2 in conference, a good position for the tournament.
SWAC
There will be 1-bid from this league, and it will be from whoever can win the bloodbath that is the Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament. 4 teams from the east and 4 from the west participate. Alabama State is undefeated in the East, Texas Southern in the west. Miss Valley St and Grambling State have not won in the SWAC, and will probably not make the conference tournament.
This is the most difficult tournament format in NCAA volleyball (if the competition was great - it would be REALLY interesting to see how things play out). This is a two-day tournament. Teams are put into two separate 4-team double elimination brackets. Whoever wins each double elimination bracket will advance to the Championship match. Every team will play at least two matches on Day 1, some will play three. If you lose your first match, you have to win two more matches on Day 1, then THREE matches on Day 2 to win the tournament. Or, if you win your first match on Day 1, lose your second match, you will play a third game (elimination) to see if you advance to Day 2. On Day 2, then you'd have to win three times, two against the same opponent to advance to the Championship.
The format is completely nuts. There is a possibility of playing back-to-back triple headers. Don't even THINK about playing five-sets. Even if you win both games of your doubleheader on Day 1, you
still have to play two matches on Day 2 (and potentially three).
American Athletic Conference
Central Florida is on top of the AAC, and nobody has been able to stop them. They are 12-0 in conference play. They were taken to 5 sets at Southern Methodist and at Memphis. The regular-season champion advances to the NCAA Tournament, and it looks like nobody is going to even Challenge UCF for the conference title. Temple just beat Memphis, and Temple has actually won 7 of their last 8. But they are still three games behind UCF in the conference, and already lost to UCF once. UCF is 19-5, but look at who those 5 losses are to: Texas, Arizona, Kansas State, Marquette, and Florida. All top-25 RPI teams. UCF will not get a seed, but they still will be tough come NCAA tournament time.
Temple has won 7 of their last 8. Their only loss came to Memphis during that stretch. Two weeks ago, they beat Tulsa and SMU. Then, this week they continued that streak with avenging a loss to Memphis. The only other team who looks like they have a chance to make the NCAA's is Southern Methodist. Memphis looked like they were going to be in it, but it's not looking great for the Tigers. Southern Methodist is now #46 in RPI, putting them right on the bubble range to get into the tournament. SMU's only bad loss is to San Francisco, which shouldn't be that bad of a loss considering they just beat San Diego.
Atlantic Sun
Every bubble team and their mothers are rooting for Lipscomb to win the A-SUN tournament. Six teams will advance to the A-Sun Tournament, and it appears only Lipscomb and FGCU look comfortable to make it in. Lipscomb and FGCU are the only two teams who look healthy to make the A-Sun Tournament. It's going to be a dog fight with five teams fighting for four more spots. Kennesaw State, North Florida, Northern Kentucky, and Stetson are going to try to make it in, but one unlucky team will be left out. (I'll bet its Kennesaw State).
Big East
Marquette took care of business this weekend by beating Xavier. I am going to quote macroman from the Big East thread for this section.
Updated Conference Standings
School Conference W-L
Creighton 12-1
Marquette 10-3
Seton Hall 10-3
Butler 9-4
Xavier 8-5
St. John's 6-6
Villanova 5-8
Georgetown 3-9
DePaul 1-12
Providence 0-12
With only four teams qualifying for the conference tourney I have to mark Villanova and below as effectively if not mathematically eliminated. With most teams having 5 remaining games I don't see a scenario where the fourth team falls to a record of 10-8. Creighton's matchups with Xavier and Butler on the road highlight this weekend's slate. Upset wins by the Musketeers or Bulldogs would go a long way towards writing their tournament tickets while losses would leave both teams tenuously on the bubble.
St. John's needs a major run to stay in contention. As one of the few teams with 6 matches remaining and Marquette, DePaul, Creighton, Georgetown, Butler and Xavier on the schedule the Red Storm can still make a serious run if they get hot.
The Big East website has to be one of the lamest in college sports. The only update for the weekend other than the scoreboard is for field hockey. Standings are only updated when a weekly release is created. Sometimes that step has been skipped for other sports (not volleyball that I have seen). Every team in the conference is doing a better job than the league at updating their websites. Are currently updated standings near the close of the playoff run so much to ask for from the Big East Conference?
The only thing I'm going to add on is I don't think St. John's will make it in. They have to beat alot of good teams that are fighting to keep their season alive. Xavier's win over Creighton would really help them get into the Big East tournament, but hurt Creighton's chances of getting in. We could see Creighton drop two games this weekend after being on top of the conference.
Conference USA
C-USA has an 8-team tournament to determine the league's bid to the NCAA's. Western Kentucky is going to challenge for an at-large bid. With only five remaining Conference USA Matches (and none of them against league-leading 11-0 Texas San Antonio), it looks like Western Kentucky has a reasonable chance of finishing 27-5. They haven't lost to anybody that is a "bad" team, but they just haven't beat anyone besides Purdue and Lipscomb. If they win out in the C-USA and make the conference tournament championship, I think they'll get an at-large bid. If they lose in the semifinals or quarterfinals, I think they are out. I think if they lose any of their remaining regular season matches, they are out. UTSA, at RPI #94, has no chance of getting an at-large bid. All this talk about UTSA and WKU aside - my dark horse pick is Rice. They beat a good Marquette team. FIU, UAB, and MTSU are fighting for the 8th spot in the conference tournament.
Mid-American
The 8-team conference tournament will be hosted at undefeated in MAC-play Ohio (19-4, 12-0). The Bobcats registered a huge victory of Northern Illinois (18-8, 11-1) Ohio's four losses come to Hawaii, Texas A&M, Northwestern, and Arizona State. The latter two went to five-sets. Again, all bubble teams will be rooting for Ohio to win the MAC tournament. The Bobcats have six remaining matches, their toughest match remaining is a home-match against Miami of Ohio. Should Ohio finish the MAC undefeated and is upset in the conference tournament championship game, I think the Bobcats still will squeeze in. If they are upset in the quarterfinals or semifinals, I think they are out. Their situation is eerily similar to Western Kentucky.
Missouri Valley
And, eerily similar to Ohio and Western Kentucky is the situation of Illinois State. The MVC features a six-team tournament. The top 5 are pretty much set, whereas the sixth spot will be claimed by Southern Illinois, Loyola, or Evansville. Illinois State is 12-0 in the conference, 18-5 overall. They play four of their last five at home, and on the road at Drake shouldn't be a challenge, so the Red Birds are looking good to finish out the MVC undefeated. They will certainly be tested at Northern Iowa, and they still have to play Missouri State (although they swept the Bears in Springfield). It's really weird how Illinois State, Ohio, and Western Kentucky have identical situations. Between the three, I think Illinois State has the weakest overall resume of the three because of their losses. Baylor, Xavier, Missouri, Lipscomb, and Oregon are their 5 losses. Ohio and Western Kentucky do not have a 100+RPI loss, but Illinois St. does in #105 Missouri.
Mountain West
Colorado State was upset this weekend by UNLV. Wyoming was also upset this weekend in five sets against San Diego State. This hurts CSU's seeding chances, but they should still be able to get a seed. For Wyoming, it may have been a death sentence. Their resume was already shaky, and I do not know if Wyoming has a chance to beat Colorado State in Fort Collins. IF UNLV hadn't lost to Wyoming TWICE, they would probably be much more comfortable in terms of bubble picture. However, UNLV really only has two solid victories: Western Kentucky and Colorado State. Should UNLV finish undefeated, they will be firmly on the bubble and it will be interesting to see if they can get in. They are ranked #57 in RPI now. Their worst loss is to Wyoming (twice) another bubble team. Bubble teams should hope for UNLV to be upset and Wyoming to lose to Colorado State, to make a death sentence for both teams. Even if they both win out, I'm not so sold on their at-large chances (not because of my opinion on their teams, just because of their overall resumes.
Northeast
LIU Brooklyn remains undefeated in NEC play at 10-0 The four team NEC tournament will be played at the top-seed (99% chance it will be LIU Brooklyn or Robert Morris). Robert Morris, at 10-1 looks to challenge for a NEC title. Saint Francis, Central Connecticut, Bryant, and Fairleigh Dickinson look to fill in the 3 and 4 spots of the NEC tournament. LIU Brooklyn has victories over Michigan State, Western Kentucky, and Alabama, but the RPI of the NEC is going to kill them. Don't expect to see LIU Brooklyn in the NCAA's unless they win the NEC tournament. They also just lost to Seton Hall, which would have helped their at-large chances.
Patriot
American, at 17-4 but 60s in RPI, just outside at-large chances. They are 10-1 in conference but the conference is weak with many RPI anchors dragging them down. Top Four teams make the Patriot league tournament, and it looks like it will be Lehigh, Colgate, and Navy joining American. Should American win out but lose the conference tournament, they will probably not receive an at-large bid. American's lost to George Washington may have killed their at-large chances.
Summit
Top-six teams advance to Summit tournament, and there is a jam between #4-#8. Oral Roberts, NDSU, IPFW, Omaha, and Western Illinois competing for three spots. Denver, South Dakota, and IUPUI are the favorites. No team will get an at-large bid from this conference.
Sun Belt
Bubble teams worst nightmare scenario: Lipscomb, Ohio, Illinois State, and the Sun-Belt's leading UALR all do not win their conference. The odds are unlikely they are all upset, but I don't think they are all going to have it easy getting to the NCAA's. UALR is in a really good position to make the NCAA's at #45. They are 21-4 and if they keep winning, they should be okay. They should really concentrate on making it to the Sun Belt Championship without losing along the way, if they drop any matches prior to that, I think UALR may actually be left out. Hopefully though, they will be Sun Belt Champions.
WAC
The Kangaroos (or 'Roos) of Missouri-Kansas City were shocked in a 3-2 upset at home facing visiting Grand Canyon. They still comfortably have a 2-game lead over anyone else in the WAC. The WAC championship should be intense and watch out for Grand Canyon now, as they beat UMKC who was 21-3 heading into the contest. UMKC still has to be the favorite for the WAC Championship.
Big West
Hawaii avoided a disaster scenario by beating UC Irvine in five-sets, then handling Fullerton. Cal State Fullerton continued its sluggish ways with a 3-1 loss to Long Beach State. The Matadors were looking pretty good after their San Diego win, but they are 3-4 in their last seven games, Two of those losses coming to undefeated in Big West play, Long Beach State. The BEACH are favorites to win the Big West, and if they beat Hawaii again, they are everything except guaranteed a Big West Championship. UC Davis is in third place, three games behind LBSU. If the keep winning and upset the Beach, they may have a chance but would still need losses by LBSU to compensate. IMO, Not going to happen. This is the BEACH year. I am still unimpressed with Hawaii, they are safe in terms of RPI (All 3 teams are top 30's in RPI), but they only have one top 50 win, which puts them on the bubble.. CSUN's resume is better than Hawaii's. If Hawaii loses both games this weekend, at home, then they will really be in trouble to make the NCAA's. They'll be okay as far as RPI is concerned, but they still will be holding their breath.
West Coast Conference
Well, as usual, the WCC had some interesting matches this weekend. San Francisco sweeps San Diego. Gonzaga and LMU had an all out war at Gersten, which involved both teams having multiple match points, but LMU pulled out the huge victory. BYU was also swept by Santa Clara and then the Broncos beat San Diego 3-2. Santa Clara jumped over LMU, and is comfortably in range to make the NCAA's at 37 RPI. LMU is positioned at 43 in the RPI, right on the bubble. They are positioned around mid-majors who may or may not win their conference, so it will be interesting to see how that all plays out.. BYU and San Diego are safe for at-large bids. Pacific, at 48, again is right on the bubble. They have a huge match at Loyola Marymount next week. If they beat LMU, it will be LMU trying to squeeze in for that fifth NCAA bid. The winner will most likely get an NCAA-bid, as long as they finish the season solid. I am hoping for 5 WCC bids, but it looks like at least 4 will happen. If only three, I think the NCAA makes a mistake (depending on the situation).
ACC
Florida State continues to dance with the devil, but they are winning the Russian Roulette battle. They continue to win five set matches and are still undefeated atop the ACC. They and UNC look to be seeded, with Duke probably unseeded. Miami of Florida, is still overrated in my opinion. They are 39 in RPI, but I don't care if they finish 35 in RPI. If they do not beat Florida State, I don't think you can let Miami into the NCAA's. They have games remaining against #49 Virginia, #52 Pittsburgh, and #58 Louisville. Miami's best win is over #60 Virginia Tech. Sure, if they beat UVA, Pittsburgh, and Louisville, one or two of those teams may finish top-50 RPI, and that will give them one or two top-50 wins. But they will be barely top-50 wins against teams who probably won't make the NCAA's. I'm going to say it now, Miami is probably going to be the highest ranked RPI team that is left OUT of the NCAA's. If they end up getting in over a WCC team or someone with a much better victory, I will embarrass myself on this forum (count on it!). Virginia is now on the bubble with a #49 ranking but they haven't really beat anyone. Alabama, after their victory over TX A&M, is now #25. That gives Virginia a top-25 victory, which makes their situation really interesting. They have wins over Louisville and LIU Brooklyn, just outside the top-50. So for now, they only have one top-50 victory and I don't think that gets the Cavaliers in. Pittsburgh, was just upset by Virginia Tech, and has no top-50 victories. Louisville is clinging to their victory over Arizona State, but that won't be good enough to get them into the NCAA's. Virginia Tech has lost so many close games this season, with a better record they would be a GREAT bubble team. But, they probably won't even be NCAA eligible. I think again, just three bids from the ACC. Duke, FSU, and UNC. I don't think anyone is deserving, but if they pick up an upset win over the course of the end of ACC play, I may change my mind on UVA, Pittsburgh, or Louisville.
Big Ten
Nebraska trying to squeeze into seeding range, but not sure if its going to happen. Wisconsin, Penn State, and Illinois are good for now. Count on Ohio State and Purdue for at-large bids, giving the Big-Ten a safe five bids. Michigan State at #47 has the best chance to get an at-large bid. Michigan at #52 will likely be ineligible for the NCAA's. Northwestern, #53, is 2-8 over their last 10 games. If they turn their season around and finish strong, they may have a case to make the tournament. They have a chance to make their case. They play Illinois twice and Penn State again. If they can pull off the upset and remain solid in their other games, the Cats may squeeze in. That leaves Minnesota at #50 as the only other at-large contender. Minnesota has dropped five of their last six, including back to back against Indiana and Purdue. Minnesota plays at the Michigans this week, and this is a huge time for both teams. If they pull off both wins or split, Minny should still be in at-large consideration. If they drop both, they are in BIG trouble. Michigan, even if they beat Minnesota, will still be in trouble. It's going to be interesting how it plays out, but I think the Big Ten will probably only get six bids (Michigan State being the last Big-10 team in).
Big 12
The Big 12 has five bids coming in, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and of course Texas. The Question is whether or not Baylor can squeak in the discussion. They just beat Iowa State, which is really good for their hopes. However, my concern is that they lost to RPI #254 Portland. That's a bad loss that I'm not sure any other bubble team has (to a 200+RPI team). Baylor's inconsistency I think will keep them out of the NCAA's again. They lost to Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia, LSU (twice), UTSA, and Wichita State. Those are games they arguably should have won and had they won their RPI would be in a better range and I think Baylor would be pretty safe. Unfortunately, they're going to have to pull some magic. They still have chances, they play at Texas, at Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma and Kansas State. If they take two or three of those and win their other matches, they could be in the discussion. But I'm not seeing it happen for Baylor -- too inconsistent. Texas will be seeded, and Kansas State has a great chance to get a seed. Maybe Oklahoma has a chance too, they are #18 in RPI with a gorgeous win over Texas.
SEC
If anyone was frustrated that Alabama was high in the RPI, continue to steam because they are for sure an NCAA team with a victory over Texas A&M. The SEC will definitely have five bids, and thats probably going to be it. Ole Miss was in the discussion (and still is) but has work to do. A 3-0 loss to Tennessee hurt their chances and now they are #60 in RPI. Big Trouble for the Rebels. They still have five games against the 5 SEC-NCAA teams, so they have their chances. But it's probably not going to happen, 5 teams from the SEC, two of which will be seeded. Maybe, just maybe, three will be seeded.
PAC-12
Pac-12 looks to definitely have seeds in Stanford, Washington, and Oregon. The next best RPI-team is #12 USC. SC still needs to pick up some more solid victories to their resume and I think they will be seeded. #14 UCLA avoided disaster by holding on to beat Washington State. #18 Arizona lost (again) to Colorado, hurting their seeding chances. I think four Pac-12 teams are seeded, potentially five. Six is probably out of the question now based on recent results, but I guess not impossible. Anyways, the above mentioned make six teams to the NCAA. Colorado, Arizona State, and Oregon State continue to look healthy in terms of RPI and overall resume's to make the NCAA's. Utah, at #59, has been so close to winning important games, but they continue to lose. They are almost out of the running, but maybe still keep them in the discussion for now.
If I had to predict what's going to happen today, here are your 32 AQ's
ACC – Florida State (2)
America East – New Hampshire (231)
AAC –UCF (29)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (106)
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb (36)
Big 10 – Wisconsin (5)
Big 12 – Texas (3)
Big East – Creighton (39)
Big Sky – Idaho State (111)
Big South – Radford (110)
Big West – Long Beach State (31)
Colonial – Hofstra (112)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (44)
Horizon – Oakland (144)
Ivy – Harvard (70)
MAAC – Marist (149)
MAC – Ohio (41)
MEAC – Hampton (173)
MVC – Illinois State (42)
MWC – Colorado State (13)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (65)
OVC – Murray State (117)
Pac-12 – Stanford (1)
Patriot – American (96)
SEC – Florida (10)
SoCon – Samford (132)
Southland – Stephen F. Austin (136)
Summit – Denver (104)
Sun Belt – UALR (45)
SWAC – Alabama State (281)
WAC – UMKC (86)
WCC – BYU (28)
32 At-Large Bids, sorted in order of RPI
Washington (4)
North Carolina (6)
Oregon (7)
Penn State (8)
Illinois (9)
Kentucky (11)
Southern California (12)
UCLA (14)
Kansas State (15)
Nebraska (16)
Texas A&M (17)
Arizona (18)
Oklahoma (19)
Duke (20)
Ohio State (22)
Iowa State (23)
Colorado (24)
LSU (25)
Alabama (26)
Kansas (27)
Hawaii (30)
Arizona State (32)
Purdue (33)
San Diego (34)
Oregon State (35)
CSUN (36)
Santa Clara (37)
Creighton (39)
Loyola Marymount (43)
Southern Methodist (46)
Michigan State (47)
Pacific (48)
Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament:
Miami (39)
Last Four In: LMU, Michigan State, Pacific, and Southern Methodist
Last Four Out: Minnesota, Virginia, Baylor, and UNLV
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wyoming, and Xavier.
Keep an eye out to make sure the following teams win their conference tournament: Lipscomb, Ohio, Illinois State, Western Kentucky, UALR. I assumed they all would win their conference. For each team that loses, they may or may not steal a bid from another at-large team. Illinois State or UALR has the weakest resume's of the five above teams, and will probably be most vulnerable if they do not get the automatic NCAA bid.
This all will probably change and become more clear three weeks from now, Conference Tournament time.
America East
The America East Conference leader as of now is New Hampshire (8-1). The Wildcats won the America East conference tournament in 2013 but were ousted in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament as they were sent to #6 Southern California. The 2014 America East tournament will determine the conference's only NCAA-Tournament participant as they will not receive an at-large bid. Only the top four teams will be in the conference tournament. Watch out for Albany - who is the only team in the America East to defeat New Hampshire this season. The top-seeded team hosts the conference tournament. Dark Horse is Binghamton, who went 2-13 in non-conference but is 6-3 in conference play, good for second place in the standings. It appears that New Hampshire will be the #1 seed, with Albany/Stony Brook/Binghamton being 2-4. UMBC will have to win their last two games and hope Albany or Stonybrook lose the rest of their games.
Atlantic 10
The A-10 will also be a 1-bid conference since nobody in the conference has a great RPI. Dayton, at 23-5 and 10-1 in conference, sits atop the standings but is still ranked #106 in RPI. The top six will be invited to the A-10 tournament, and strangely, it looks like the top six are pretty clear. The other five teams all have three or four losses (VCU, Saint Louis, Duquense, Rhode Island, and George Washington). Saint Louis beat Purdue this season, so they may be a tough out in the A-10 tournament. La Salle, George Mason, Fordham, and Davidson's seasons will come to an end in a few weeks.
Big Sky
8 teams will play in the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The top 8 teams will be the teams with the best conference record, regardless of division. The favorite has to be Idaho State, at 11-1 in conference. North Dakota, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, and Idaho are all teams that are vying for the #2 seed in the tournament, which would be important so they would not have to face ISU until the Championship.
Big South
It looked like Liberty was the clear favorite of the Big South but after going 9-0 in conference the Flames dropped their first match to defending Big South Champion, and #2 in conference, Radford. Liberty (9-1) still remains a game ahead of Radford (8-2). Their is a 8-team tournament, so upsets may happen, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a Liberty/Radford Big South Championship. Don't be too surprised if you see Coastal Carolina in the NCAA's, the dark horse at #3 in conference.
Colonial
Hofstra was leading the conference but after a Towson upset, College of Charleston is now tied with Hofstra at 10-2. Towson becomes now a dark-horse at the #3 spot.. The Top six make it to the conference tournament, and it is almost certain it will be UNCW, Delaware, and James Madison joining the three mentioned above.
Horizon
Another one-bid conference, the bid will come from the winner of the 6-team Horizon tournament. Oakland and 2013 Champion Milwaukee are tied for 1st in the conference standings. Count on Youngstown State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparasio, and Cleveland State to be in the conference tournament.
Ivy
Yale was rolling through the Ivy League, but trouble is now brewing for the Bulldogs. Harvard and Yale are both tied for 1st place, but Harvard has beaten Yale twice. They were stunned by Brown and fell to Dartmouth. Things are complicated now, Harvard owns the tie-breaker over Yale. Yale will have to finish a game ahead of Harvard to advance to the NCAA's. Meanwhile, Princeton is the only other team eligible to win the Championship, and they are one game behind both Harvard and Yale. Princeton has four games left, including Harvard and Yale. If they both games, they may be in a great position to win the conference. If they drop either match, I think they are probably out.
Metro Atlantic
All 10 teams from the MAAC advance to the conference tournament, so even Quinnipiac at 0-14 in conference still has a chance to advance to the NCAAs. The two-time defending MAAC Champions, Fairfield, are tied for 3rd in conference standings. Marist, at 12-2, leads the MAAC. The conference is a toss up, and of course, 1-bid only. Dark-Horse: Rider and Manhattan, the latter just upset #1 Marist (sweep!)
Mid Eastern
MEAC Conference Tournament will determine the league's lone bid. Four teams from the North and Four from the South advance to the 3-day tournament. Hampton is undefeated in the North, Florida A&M undefeated in the South. Vendula Strakova continues to put up great numbers for Hampton. I look for Hampton to repeat as champions and take the auto bid to the 2014 NCAAs.
Ohio Valley
OVC looks to be a toss-up as well. Murray State is atop the conference at 11-1. The top 8 teams advance to the conference tournament, the bottom 4 of 12 could still fight their way in so who know's what's going to happen in the OVC. Dark-Horse: Austin Peay. The only team in the OVC to top Murray State this season.
Southern
Samford and Furman lead the SoCon with a 10-2 records. All 9 teams advance to the SoCon conference tournament, so everyone is alive. North Carolina Greensboro and Mercer are the only teams to beat Samford.
Southland
Southland Conference features an 8-team conference tournament, and it looks like seven of the 8 are clear. Their will be a battle between Nicholls, Lamar, and McNeese State to round out the tournament. Stephen F. Austin remains undefeated as they beat Central Arkansas on November 1st in Nacogdoches, TX. The Sugar Bears had a tough weekend as they were swept by Stephen F. Austin and Northwestern State. They remain #2 in conference, a good position for the tournament.
SWAC
There will be 1-bid from this league, and it will be from whoever can win the bloodbath that is the Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament. 4 teams from the east and 4 from the west participate. Alabama State is undefeated in the East, Texas Southern in the west. Miss Valley St and Grambling State have not won in the SWAC, and will probably not make the conference tournament.
This is the most difficult tournament format in NCAA volleyball (if the competition was great - it would be REALLY interesting to see how things play out). This is a two-day tournament. Teams are put into two separate 4-team double elimination brackets. Whoever wins each double elimination bracket will advance to the Championship match. Every team will play at least two matches on Day 1, some will play three. If you lose your first match, you have to win two more matches on Day 1, then THREE matches on Day 2 to win the tournament. Or, if you win your first match on Day 1, lose your second match, you will play a third game (elimination) to see if you advance to Day 2. On Day 2, then you'd have to win three times, two against the same opponent to advance to the Championship.
The format is completely nuts. There is a possibility of playing back-to-back triple headers. Don't even THINK about playing five-sets. Even if you win both games of your doubleheader on Day 1, you
still have to play two matches on Day 2 (and potentially three).
American Athletic Conference
Central Florida is on top of the AAC, and nobody has been able to stop them. They are 12-0 in conference play. They were taken to 5 sets at Southern Methodist and at Memphis. The regular-season champion advances to the NCAA Tournament, and it looks like nobody is going to even Challenge UCF for the conference title. Temple just beat Memphis, and Temple has actually won 7 of their last 8. But they are still three games behind UCF in the conference, and already lost to UCF once. UCF is 19-5, but look at who those 5 losses are to: Texas, Arizona, Kansas State, Marquette, and Florida. All top-25 RPI teams. UCF will not get a seed, but they still will be tough come NCAA tournament time.
Temple has won 7 of their last 8. Their only loss came to Memphis during that stretch. Two weeks ago, they beat Tulsa and SMU. Then, this week they continued that streak with avenging a loss to Memphis. The only other team who looks like they have a chance to make the NCAA's is Southern Methodist. Memphis looked like they were going to be in it, but it's not looking great for the Tigers. Southern Methodist is now #46 in RPI, putting them right on the bubble range to get into the tournament. SMU's only bad loss is to San Francisco, which shouldn't be that bad of a loss considering they just beat San Diego.
Atlantic Sun
Every bubble team and their mothers are rooting for Lipscomb to win the A-SUN tournament. Six teams will advance to the A-Sun Tournament, and it appears only Lipscomb and FGCU look comfortable to make it in. Lipscomb and FGCU are the only two teams who look healthy to make the A-Sun Tournament. It's going to be a dog fight with five teams fighting for four more spots. Kennesaw State, North Florida, Northern Kentucky, and Stetson are going to try to make it in, but one unlucky team will be left out. (I'll bet its Kennesaw State).
Big East
Marquette took care of business this weekend by beating Xavier. I am going to quote macroman from the Big East thread for this section.
Updated Conference Standings
School Conference W-L
Creighton 12-1
Marquette 10-3
Seton Hall 10-3
Butler 9-4
Xavier 8-5
St. John's 6-6
Villanova 5-8
Georgetown 3-9
DePaul 1-12
Providence 0-12
With only four teams qualifying for the conference tourney I have to mark Villanova and below as effectively if not mathematically eliminated. With most teams having 5 remaining games I don't see a scenario where the fourth team falls to a record of 10-8. Creighton's matchups with Xavier and Butler on the road highlight this weekend's slate. Upset wins by the Musketeers or Bulldogs would go a long way towards writing their tournament tickets while losses would leave both teams tenuously on the bubble.
St. John's needs a major run to stay in contention. As one of the few teams with 6 matches remaining and Marquette, DePaul, Creighton, Georgetown, Butler and Xavier on the schedule the Red Storm can still make a serious run if they get hot.
The Big East website has to be one of the lamest in college sports. The only update for the weekend other than the scoreboard is for field hockey. Standings are only updated when a weekly release is created. Sometimes that step has been skipped for other sports (not volleyball that I have seen). Every team in the conference is doing a better job than the league at updating their websites. Are currently updated standings near the close of the playoff run so much to ask for from the Big East Conference?
Conference USA
C-USA has an 8-team tournament to determine the league's bid to the NCAA's. Western Kentucky is going to challenge for an at-large bid. With only five remaining Conference USA Matches (and none of them against league-leading 11-0 Texas San Antonio), it looks like Western Kentucky has a reasonable chance of finishing 27-5. They haven't lost to anybody that is a "bad" team, but they just haven't beat anyone besides Purdue and Lipscomb. If they win out in the C-USA and make the conference tournament championship, I think they'll get an at-large bid. If they lose in the semifinals or quarterfinals, I think they are out. I think if they lose any of their remaining regular season matches, they are out. UTSA, at RPI #94, has no chance of getting an at-large bid. All this talk about UTSA and WKU aside - my dark horse pick is Rice. They beat a good Marquette team. FIU, UAB, and MTSU are fighting for the 8th spot in the conference tournament.
Mid-American
The 8-team conference tournament will be hosted at undefeated in MAC-play Ohio (19-4, 12-0). The Bobcats registered a huge victory of Northern Illinois (18-8, 11-1) Ohio's four losses come to Hawaii, Texas A&M, Northwestern, and Arizona State. The latter two went to five-sets. Again, all bubble teams will be rooting for Ohio to win the MAC tournament. The Bobcats have six remaining matches, their toughest match remaining is a home-match against Miami of Ohio. Should Ohio finish the MAC undefeated and is upset in the conference tournament championship game, I think the Bobcats still will squeeze in. If they are upset in the quarterfinals or semifinals, I think they are out. Their situation is eerily similar to Western Kentucky.
Missouri Valley
And, eerily similar to Ohio and Western Kentucky is the situation of Illinois State. The MVC features a six-team tournament. The top 5 are pretty much set, whereas the sixth spot will be claimed by Southern Illinois, Loyola, or Evansville. Illinois State is 12-0 in the conference, 18-5 overall. They play four of their last five at home, and on the road at Drake shouldn't be a challenge, so the Red Birds are looking good to finish out the MVC undefeated. They will certainly be tested at Northern Iowa, and they still have to play Missouri State (although they swept the Bears in Springfield). It's really weird how Illinois State, Ohio, and Western Kentucky have identical situations. Between the three, I think Illinois State has the weakest overall resume of the three because of their losses. Baylor, Xavier, Missouri, Lipscomb, and Oregon are their 5 losses. Ohio and Western Kentucky do not have a 100+RPI loss, but Illinois St. does in #105 Missouri.
Mountain West
Colorado State was upset this weekend by UNLV. Wyoming was also upset this weekend in five sets against San Diego State. This hurts CSU's seeding chances, but they should still be able to get a seed. For Wyoming, it may have been a death sentence. Their resume was already shaky, and I do not know if Wyoming has a chance to beat Colorado State in Fort Collins. IF UNLV hadn't lost to Wyoming TWICE, they would probably be much more comfortable in terms of bubble picture. However, UNLV really only has two solid victories: Western Kentucky and Colorado State. Should UNLV finish undefeated, they will be firmly on the bubble and it will be interesting to see if they can get in. They are ranked #57 in RPI now. Their worst loss is to Wyoming (twice) another bubble team. Bubble teams should hope for UNLV to be upset and Wyoming to lose to Colorado State, to make a death sentence for both teams. Even if they both win out, I'm not so sold on their at-large chances (not because of my opinion on their teams, just because of their overall resumes.
Northeast
LIU Brooklyn remains undefeated in NEC play at 10-0 The four team NEC tournament will be played at the top-seed (99% chance it will be LIU Brooklyn or Robert Morris). Robert Morris, at 10-1 looks to challenge for a NEC title. Saint Francis, Central Connecticut, Bryant, and Fairleigh Dickinson look to fill in the 3 and 4 spots of the NEC tournament. LIU Brooklyn has victories over Michigan State, Western Kentucky, and Alabama, but the RPI of the NEC is going to kill them. Don't expect to see LIU Brooklyn in the NCAA's unless they win the NEC tournament. They also just lost to Seton Hall, which would have helped their at-large chances.
Patriot
American, at 17-4 but 60s in RPI, just outside at-large chances. They are 10-1 in conference but the conference is weak with many RPI anchors dragging them down. Top Four teams make the Patriot league tournament, and it looks like it will be Lehigh, Colgate, and Navy joining American. Should American win out but lose the conference tournament, they will probably not receive an at-large bid. American's lost to George Washington may have killed their at-large chances.
Summit
Top-six teams advance to Summit tournament, and there is a jam between #4-#8. Oral Roberts, NDSU, IPFW, Omaha, and Western Illinois competing for three spots. Denver, South Dakota, and IUPUI are the favorites. No team will get an at-large bid from this conference.
Sun Belt
Bubble teams worst nightmare scenario: Lipscomb, Ohio, Illinois State, and the Sun-Belt's leading UALR all do not win their conference. The odds are unlikely they are all upset, but I don't think they are all going to have it easy getting to the NCAA's. UALR is in a really good position to make the NCAA's at #45. They are 21-4 and if they keep winning, they should be okay. They should really concentrate on making it to the Sun Belt Championship without losing along the way, if they drop any matches prior to that, I think UALR may actually be left out. Hopefully though, they will be Sun Belt Champions.
WAC
The Kangaroos (or 'Roos) of Missouri-Kansas City were shocked in a 3-2 upset at home facing visiting Grand Canyon. They still comfortably have a 2-game lead over anyone else in the WAC. The WAC championship should be intense and watch out for Grand Canyon now, as they beat UMKC who was 21-3 heading into the contest. UMKC still has to be the favorite for the WAC Championship.
Big West
Hawaii avoided a disaster scenario by beating UC Irvine in five-sets, then handling Fullerton. Cal State Fullerton continued its sluggish ways with a 3-1 loss to Long Beach State. The Matadors were looking pretty good after their San Diego win, but they are 3-4 in their last seven games, Two of those losses coming to undefeated in Big West play, Long Beach State. The BEACH are favorites to win the Big West, and if they beat Hawaii again, they are everything except guaranteed a Big West Championship. UC Davis is in third place, three games behind LBSU. If the keep winning and upset the Beach, they may have a chance but would still need losses by LBSU to compensate. IMO, Not going to happen. This is the BEACH year. I am still unimpressed with Hawaii, they are safe in terms of RPI (All 3 teams are top 30's in RPI), but they only have one top 50 win, which puts them on the bubble.. CSUN's resume is better than Hawaii's. If Hawaii loses both games this weekend, at home, then they will really be in trouble to make the NCAA's. They'll be okay as far as RPI is concerned, but they still will be holding their breath.
West Coast Conference
Well, as usual, the WCC had some interesting matches this weekend. San Francisco sweeps San Diego. Gonzaga and LMU had an all out war at Gersten, which involved both teams having multiple match points, but LMU pulled out the huge victory. BYU was also swept by Santa Clara and then the Broncos beat San Diego 3-2. Santa Clara jumped over LMU, and is comfortably in range to make the NCAA's at 37 RPI. LMU is positioned at 43 in the RPI, right on the bubble. They are positioned around mid-majors who may or may not win their conference, so it will be interesting to see how that all plays out.. BYU and San Diego are safe for at-large bids. Pacific, at 48, again is right on the bubble. They have a huge match at Loyola Marymount next week. If they beat LMU, it will be LMU trying to squeeze in for that fifth NCAA bid. The winner will most likely get an NCAA-bid, as long as they finish the season solid. I am hoping for 5 WCC bids, but it looks like at least 4 will happen. If only three, I think the NCAA makes a mistake (depending on the situation).
ACC
Florida State continues to dance with the devil, but they are winning the Russian Roulette battle. They continue to win five set matches and are still undefeated atop the ACC. They and UNC look to be seeded, with Duke probably unseeded. Miami of Florida, is still overrated in my opinion. They are 39 in RPI, but I don't care if they finish 35 in RPI. If they do not beat Florida State, I don't think you can let Miami into the NCAA's. They have games remaining against #49 Virginia, #52 Pittsburgh, and #58 Louisville. Miami's best win is over #60 Virginia Tech. Sure, if they beat UVA, Pittsburgh, and Louisville, one or two of those teams may finish top-50 RPI, and that will give them one or two top-50 wins. But they will be barely top-50 wins against teams who probably won't make the NCAA's. I'm going to say it now, Miami is probably going to be the highest ranked RPI team that is left OUT of the NCAA's. If they end up getting in over a WCC team or someone with a much better victory, I will embarrass myself on this forum (count on it!). Virginia is now on the bubble with a #49 ranking but they haven't really beat anyone. Alabama, after their victory over TX A&M, is now #25. That gives Virginia a top-25 victory, which makes their situation really interesting. They have wins over Louisville and LIU Brooklyn, just outside the top-50. So for now, they only have one top-50 victory and I don't think that gets the Cavaliers in. Pittsburgh, was just upset by Virginia Tech, and has no top-50 victories. Louisville is clinging to their victory over Arizona State, but that won't be good enough to get them into the NCAA's. Virginia Tech has lost so many close games this season, with a better record they would be a GREAT bubble team. But, they probably won't even be NCAA eligible. I think again, just three bids from the ACC. Duke, FSU, and UNC. I don't think anyone is deserving, but if they pick up an upset win over the course of the end of ACC play, I may change my mind on UVA, Pittsburgh, or Louisville.
Big Ten
Nebraska trying to squeeze into seeding range, but not sure if its going to happen. Wisconsin, Penn State, and Illinois are good for now. Count on Ohio State and Purdue for at-large bids, giving the Big-Ten a safe five bids. Michigan State at #47 has the best chance to get an at-large bid. Michigan at #52 will likely be ineligible for the NCAA's. Northwestern, #53, is 2-8 over their last 10 games. If they turn their season around and finish strong, they may have a case to make the tournament. They have a chance to make their case. They play Illinois twice and Penn State again. If they can pull off the upset and remain solid in their other games, the Cats may squeeze in. That leaves Minnesota at #50 as the only other at-large contender. Minnesota has dropped five of their last six, including back to back against Indiana and Purdue. Minnesota plays at the Michigans this week, and this is a huge time for both teams. If they pull off both wins or split, Minny should still be in at-large consideration. If they drop both, they are in BIG trouble. Michigan, even if they beat Minnesota, will still be in trouble. It's going to be interesting how it plays out, but I think the Big Ten will probably only get six bids (Michigan State being the last Big-10 team in).
Big 12
The Big 12 has five bids coming in, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and of course Texas. The Question is whether or not Baylor can squeak in the discussion. They just beat Iowa State, which is really good for their hopes. However, my concern is that they lost to RPI #254 Portland. That's a bad loss that I'm not sure any other bubble team has (to a 200+RPI team). Baylor's inconsistency I think will keep them out of the NCAA's again. They lost to Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia, LSU (twice), UTSA, and Wichita State. Those are games they arguably should have won and had they won their RPI would be in a better range and I think Baylor would be pretty safe. Unfortunately, they're going to have to pull some magic. They still have chances, they play at Texas, at Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma and Kansas State. If they take two or three of those and win their other matches, they could be in the discussion. But I'm not seeing it happen for Baylor -- too inconsistent. Texas will be seeded, and Kansas State has a great chance to get a seed. Maybe Oklahoma has a chance too, they are #18 in RPI with a gorgeous win over Texas.
SEC
If anyone was frustrated that Alabama was high in the RPI, continue to steam because they are for sure an NCAA team with a victory over Texas A&M. The SEC will definitely have five bids, and thats probably going to be it. Ole Miss was in the discussion (and still is) but has work to do. A 3-0 loss to Tennessee hurt their chances and now they are #60 in RPI. Big Trouble for the Rebels. They still have five games against the 5 SEC-NCAA teams, so they have their chances. But it's probably not going to happen, 5 teams from the SEC, two of which will be seeded. Maybe, just maybe, three will be seeded.
PAC-12
Pac-12 looks to definitely have seeds in Stanford, Washington, and Oregon. The next best RPI-team is #12 USC. SC still needs to pick up some more solid victories to their resume and I think they will be seeded. #14 UCLA avoided disaster by holding on to beat Washington State. #18 Arizona lost (again) to Colorado, hurting their seeding chances. I think four Pac-12 teams are seeded, potentially five. Six is probably out of the question now based on recent results, but I guess not impossible. Anyways, the above mentioned make six teams to the NCAA. Colorado, Arizona State, and Oregon State continue to look healthy in terms of RPI and overall resume's to make the NCAA's. Utah, at #59, has been so close to winning important games, but they continue to lose. They are almost out of the running, but maybe still keep them in the discussion for now.
If I had to predict what's going to happen today, here are your 32 AQ's
ACC – Florida State (2)
America East – New Hampshire (231)
AAC –UCF (29)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (106)
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb (36)
Big 10 – Wisconsin (5)
Big 12 – Texas (3)
Big East – Creighton (39)
Big Sky – Idaho State (111)
Big South – Radford (110)
Big West – Long Beach State (31)
Colonial – Hofstra (112)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (44)
Horizon – Oakland (144)
Ivy – Harvard (70)
MAAC – Marist (149)
MAC – Ohio (41)
MEAC – Hampton (173)
MVC – Illinois State (42)
MWC – Colorado State (13)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (65)
OVC – Murray State (117)
Pac-12 – Stanford (1)
Patriot – American (96)
SEC – Florida (10)
SoCon – Samford (132)
Southland – Stephen F. Austin (136)
Summit – Denver (104)
Sun Belt – UALR (45)
SWAC – Alabama State (281)
WAC – UMKC (86)
WCC – BYU (28)
32 At-Large Bids, sorted in order of RPI
Washington (4)
North Carolina (6)
Oregon (7)
Penn State (8)
Illinois (9)
Kentucky (11)
Southern California (12)
UCLA (14)
Kansas State (15)
Nebraska (16)
Texas A&M (17)
Arizona (18)
Oklahoma (19)
Duke (20)
Ohio State (22)
Iowa State (23)
Colorado (24)
LSU (25)
Alabama (26)
Kansas (27)
Hawaii (30)
Arizona State (32)
Purdue (33)
San Diego (34)
Oregon State (35)
CSUN (36)
Santa Clara (37)
Creighton (39)
Loyola Marymount (43)
Southern Methodist (46)
Michigan State (47)
Pacific (48)
Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament:
Miami (39)
Last Four In: LMU, Michigan State, Pacific, and Southern Methodist
Last Four Out: Minnesota, Virginia, Baylor, and UNLV
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Wyoming, and Xavier.
Keep an eye out to make sure the following teams win their conference tournament: Lipscomb, Ohio, Illinois State, Western Kentucky, UALR. I assumed they all would win their conference. For each team that loses, they may or may not steal a bid from another at-large team. Illinois State or UALR has the weakest resume's of the five above teams, and will probably be most vulnerable if they do not get the automatic NCAA bid.
This all will probably change and become more clear three weeks from now, Conference Tournament time.