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Post by trollhunter on Oct 29, 2015 13:47:39 GMT -5
More importantly, they now have a quality win. If they can beat Iowa State or Kansas they should get an at-large for sure. Maybe just beating Baylor is enough. They have already beaten Baylor once. Are you saying beating Baylor again for the sweep might be enough?
I think they will beat ISU at home (TCU)
Yes, as Trojan also pointed out, TCU sweeping Baylor *might* be enough to get them in NCAA. Beating ISU or Kansas makes it a sure thing IMO. |
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Post by vbprisoner on Oct 29, 2015 14:21:45 GMT -5
They have already beaten Baylor once. Are you saying beating Baylor again for the sweep might be enough?
I think they will beat ISU at home (TCU)
Yes, as Trojan also pointed out, TCU sweeping Baylor *might* be enough to get them in NCAA. Beating ISU or Kansas makes it a sure thing IMO. I don't think 5 will get into the NCAA from the Big 12, so to me, it will be TCU or Baylor. I could be wrong if Baylor beats TCU and ISU or Kansas, and TCU beats Kansas then 5 is possible. I just don't think Baylor is that strong yet. |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 29, 2015 16:08:34 GMT -5
Yes, as Trojan also pointed out, TCU sweeping Baylor *might* be enough to get them in NCAA. Beating ISU or Kansas makes it a sure thing IMO. I don't think 5 will get into the NCAA from the Big 12, so to me, it will be TCU or Baylor. I could be wrong if Baylor beats TCU and ISU or Kansas, and TCU beats Kansas then 5 is possible. I just don't think Baylor is that strong yet. TCU is now 6-3 in conference. I think they need to win 4 of their remaining 7 to end up with an RPI in the Mid 40's. They are very likely to beat West Virginia and Texas Tech at home and lose to Kansas on the road. That would mean they need to win 2 of these 4 matches: @baylor, @oklahoma, Iowa State, and @kansas State. These appear to be very even matchups - but will require TCU to win at least one of them on the road (or beat Kansas on the road). They look to have about a 50% chance of getting a bid.
Baylor is now 2-6 in conference. I think they need to win 3 of their final 8 to get an RPI in the Mid 40's. They are likely to beat West Virginia at home and seem likely to lose road games against Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State. That means they need to win at least 2 of these games: @texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU. They appear to be at slightly better than 50% chance of getting a bid.
Kansas State is 5-4 and need to win 5 of their final 7 matches. They are likely to beat Texas Tech at home and lose to Texas on the road. They will need to win 4 of the following 5 matches: Oklahoma, TCU, @baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas. 4 of these 5 are at home, but beating Kansas will not be easy. They are actually favored in 3 of the matches while being just a very slight underdog to Iowa State. Their chances appear to be south of 50% - but have a path.
I think 5 is clearly possible, but agree that 4 is more likely and there is still a chance for only 3.
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Post by vballarfan on Oct 29, 2015 19:05:30 GMT -5
How does is work? 16 seeded teams, 4 teams per playing site? So in Arkansas States case, what's the most likely destination if they don't get a seed, somehere close by or can they tend to be anywhere? seed or no seed, they are having a special season and as some other publication pointed out this is with mostly high school recruits, not international or transfers. There are also several Arkansas kids playing key roles on the team. State of Arkansas volleyball is on the rise. Go Red Wolves.
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 29, 2015 20:18:54 GMT -5
How does is work? 16 seeded teams, 4 teams per playing site? So in Arkansas States case, what's the most likely destination if they don't get a seed, somehere close by or can they tend to be anywhere? seed or no seed, they are having a special season and as some other publication pointed out this is with mostly high school recruits, not international or transfers. There are also several Arkansas kids playing key roles on the team. State of Arkansas volleyball is on the rise. Go Red Wolves. Assuming Arkansas State is unseeded, and also assuming Missouri is seeded, that would almost certainly be their destination. It's the only potential 1st/2nd Round host within 400 miles of Jonesboro, Arkansas. Otherwise, Arkansas State could be sent to any host site that does not have three teams from other conferences located within 400 miles. |
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Post by redbeard2008 on Oct 30, 2015 0:18:14 GMT -5
Western seeds and at-larges projected:
Western Seeds (within 400 miles?)
(2) USC (LMU, Hawaii?, ?)
(5) UCLA (San Diego, Long Beach State, ?)
(12) Stanford (Santa Clara, Cal State Bakersfield, Hawaii?)
(14) Washington (Hawaii?, ?, ?) [Closest: Michigan or Michigan State?, Creighton?]
(17) BYU (CSU?, ASU?, Northern Arizona?)
Not within 400 miles: Hawaii, CSU, ASU, Arizona, Northern Arizona
At-Larges:
(19) Arizona State (P12)
(23) Hawaii (BW)
(24) San Diego (WCC)
(28) LMU (WCC)
(36) Colorado State (MWC)
(43) San Diego (WCC)
(46) Arizona (P12)
(47) Long Beach State (BW)
(57) Northern Arizona (BS)
(?) Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
Looks at least six will need to fly in from the east.
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Post by volleyhead on Oct 30, 2015 0:37:58 GMT -5
[/p][p ]Baylor is now 2-6 in conference. I think they need to win 3 of their final 8 to get an RPI in the Mid 40's. They are likely to beat West Virginia at home and seem likely to lose road games against Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State. That means they need to win at least 2 of these games: @texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU. They appear to be at slightly better than 50% chance of getting a bid. [/p]
If Baylor finishes 5-11 in conference only winning 3 more (most likely Tech, WVU and OU)...they do not deserve to be in the tournament. Not sure how this team's RPI has stayed so high when they are losing in conference. They've only beaten Tech and West Virginia, not much to brag about.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2015 4:57:29 GMT -5
Seriously, somebody has way to much time on their hands...
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Post by jrmint on Oct 30, 2015 10:19:14 GMT -5
How does is work? 16 seeded teams, 4 teams per playing site? So in Arkansas States case, what's the most likely destination if they don't get a seed, somehere close by or can they tend to be anywhere? seed or no seed, they are having a special season and as some other publication pointed out this is with mostly high school recruits, not international or transfers. There are also several Arkansas kids playing key roles on the team. State of Arkansas volleyball is on the rise. Go Red Wolves. Assuming Arkansas State is unseeded, and also assuming Missouri is seeded, that would almost certainly be their destination. It's the only potential 1st/2nd Round host within 400 miles of Jonesboro, Arkansas. Otherwise, Arkansas State could be sent to any host site that does not have three teams from other conferences located within 400 miles. That is a big "if" Missouri is seeded (I am not super sure if they can hang on to a top 16 seed, they need to split their four matches against Texas A&M(2), Kentucky(1) and Arkansas(1), but three of those are on the road, which means it is not an easy task) and really avoid any RPI killing loss (i.e. almost every other team left they play). Also it depends on how the committee feels about having them play each other again, since they did play already once this season (Missouri is ASU's lone loss), which is sometimes avoided in the first two rounds (though not always). |
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Post by trollhunter on Oct 30, 2015 11:38:03 GMT -5
[/p][p ]Baylor is now 2-6 in conference. I think they need to win 3 of their final 8 to get an RPI in the Mid 40's. They are likely to beat West Virginia at home and seem likely to lose road games against Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State. That means they need to win at least 2 of these games: @texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and TCU. They appear to be at slightly better than 50% chance of getting a bid. [/p]
If Baylor finishes 5-11 in conference only winning 3 more (most likely Tech, WVU and OU)...they do not deserve to be in the tournament. Not sure how this team's RPI has stayed so high when they are losing in conference. They've only beaten Tech and West Virginia, not much to brag about.
[/quote] You are probably correct that Baylor needs to win 4 more - but it is more for a quality win than RPI. Baylor has beaten Dayton who will be in the NCAA field, and if they beat TCU that would (probably) be another top 50 win. If Baylor loses to TCU again, they will likely need to beat Texas, Kansas, or IU to have the resume to get into NCAA tournament. |
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 30, 2015 12:24:48 GMT -5
Western seeds and at-larges projected: Western Seeds (within 400 miles?) (2) USC (LMU, Hawaii?, ?) (5) UCLA (San Diego, Long Beach State, ?) (12) Stanford (Santa Clara, Cal State Bakersfield, Hawaii?) (14) Washington (Hawaii?, ?, ?) [Closest: Michigan or Michigan State?, Creighton?] (17) BYU (CSU?, ASU?, Northern Arizona?) Not within 400 miles: Hawaii, CSU, ASU, Arizona, Northern Arizona At-Larges: (19) Arizona State (P12) (23) Hawaii (BW) (24) San Diego (WCC) (28) LMU (WCC) (36) Colorado State (MWC) (43) San Diego (WCC) (46) Arizona (P12) (47) Long Beach State (BW) (57) Northern Arizona (BS) (?) Cal State Bakersfield (WAC) Looks at least six will need to fly in from the east. Here is a short list of At-Larges that are not within 400 miles of any projected seeded team:
West: Hawaii, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado State, Northern Colorado. Only 1 of Arizona State or Arizona can go to BYU and the other (or both) will be sent East.
East: North Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State, Baylor, Northwestern, Arkansas State. Some of these may not qualify or actually get a bid, Arkansas State is within 400 miles of only Missouri (if Missouri gets a bid). There are several 1 bid conferences that aren't within 400 miles of a seeded team outside of Penn State - so a couple of them is probably being shipped West. I would imagine UNC and one or both Michigan schools will be heading West.
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 30, 2015 13:03:46 GMT -5
Here is a short list of At-Larges that are not within 400 miles of any projected seeded team:
. . .
East: North Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State, Baylor, Northwestern, Arkansas State. Some of these may not qualify or actually get a bid, Arkansas State is within 400 miles of only Missouri (if Missouri gets a bid). There are several 1 bid conferences that aren't within 400 miles of a seeded team outside of Penn State - so a couple of them is probably being shipped West. I would imagine UNC and one or both Michigan schools will be heading West. Based on your RPI projections, do you view Kentucky and Louisville as potential seeds and hosts for the opening rounds? If so, the Michigan schools are both within 400 miles of those potential sites. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 30, 2015 13:30:38 GMT -5
The bubble is really interesting this year - it's a bit odd but the bubble teams are almost all Western and have played a lot of the same teams. I'm most intrigued by potential at-larges from the Big Sky and MWC - two conferences that don't normally end up multibid - especially because whether it happens is quite up in the air.
If Boise wins out its (relatively soft) remaining schedule, Bluepenguin has them inching up to 49 in RPI and above the cutline. But they get killed in H2H match-ups with other bubbles teams and their sole good win is diminished by Northwestern falling to many other teams in consideration. Last year Ohio St. was the tourney team everyone on the bubble beat (which came back to haunt those who had it as their best win), this year it may be Northwestern. They're probably already out of the running unless everyone absolutely collapses around them.
If NAU loses the Big Sky tournament, they would be right on the RPI cutline at 50. Would Top 50 wins over LMU, 2x over Idaho St. and maybe Boise St., with only one barely sub100 loss, be enough? My initial reaction is no, but it becomes an issue of who to replace them with. Some big conference schools on the bubble actually have tourney resumes that are just as weak (I'm looking at you Baylor & KState). I think the real danger would come from someone like LBSU or Pacific, who match the LMU win AND have something better in their pockets. I guess LMU is similar to Northwestern here as the common win donor. Even Virginia, one of the very few Eastern bubble teams, beat LMU.
Idaho St. lost both regular season match-ups against NAU. If they lose a 3rd time in the tourney, they'd have a high-40s RPI, with a good win over Northwestern and maybe Boise. Will that be enough? The RPI cutoff will be down around 50, so there's some breathing room above the cutoff. How much do they get rewarded for scheduling really tough out of conference versus punished for taking so many losses (BYU and USC have no downside, but Wyoming (H2H!), New Mexico, Lipscomb, Utah may be too many losses to non-tourney teams). I think autobid or bust - they didn't keep the sheet clean enough for their lack of good wins.
Wyoming is the most intriguing. They project to a prohibitively high RPI (55) and have 2 really ugly sub-100 losses. That said, they have by far the best collection of wins - Ohio St. remains huge, plus they've backed it up with Marquette, Idaho St. and a split with Boise. Beating CSU on the last day would certainly get them in, but what if they run the table but lose to CSU? I'd take them over all of the above, plus the Baylor/KState types.
I guess what this analysis is really telling me is that the winner of Pacific/LBSU is probably getting in assuming they stay the course, and even the loser may be okay if they don't mess up too badly down the stretch..
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Post by redbeard2008 on Oct 30, 2015 13:47:13 GMT -5
Here is a short list of At-Larges that are not within 400 miles of any projected seeded team:
West: Hawaii, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado State, Northern Colorado. Only 1 of Arizona State or Arizona can go to BYU and the other (or both) will be sent East.
East: North Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State, Baylor, Northwestern, Arkansas State. Some of these may not qualify or actually get a bid, Arkansas State is within 400 miles of only Missouri (if Missouri gets a bid). There are several 1 bid conferences that aren't within 400 miles of a seeded team outside of Penn State - so a couple of them is probably being shipped West. I would imagine UNC and one or both Michigan schools will be heading West.
Michigan has been sent to Seattle a couple of times: 2010 and 2013. I wouldn't mind seeing Michigan State, although it would go against my wish to see someone not wearing "green". If Idaho State (rather than NAU) wins the Big Sky, then they'd be headed to Seattle (current RPI): UW (14) vs Idaho State (51) Arkansas State (16) vs Michigan State (34) or North Carolina (32) |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 30, 2015 14:24:23 GMT -5
Here is a short list of At-Larges that are not within 400 miles of any projected seeded team:
West: Hawaii, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado State, Northern Colorado. Only 1 of Arizona State or Arizona can go to BYU and the other (or both) will be sent East.
East: North Carolina, Michigan, Michigan State, Baylor, Northwestern, Arkansas State. Some of these may not qualify or actually get a bid, Arkansas State is within 400 miles of only Missouri (if Missouri gets a bid). There are several 1 bid conferences that aren't within 400 miles of a seeded team outside of Penn State - so a couple of them is probably being shipped West. I would imagine UNC and one or both Michigan schools will be heading West.
Michigan has been sent to Seattle a couple of times: 2010 and 2013. I wouldn't mind seeing Michigan State, although it would go against my wish to see someone not wearing "green". If Idaho State (rather than NAU) wins the Big Sky, then they'd be headed to Seattle (current RPI): UW (14) vs Idaho State (51) Arkansas State (16) vs Michigan State (34) or North Carolina (32) Idaho St. would head to Provo. They are not within driving distance of UW. |
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