FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[trojansc]

Final Bracketology (11/28)
All regular season matches have concluded.
*RPI numbers officially listed are the RPI on Monday, the committee uses an updated RPI. Consult RKPI for what that might look like. It was taken into consideration here.
NCAA Selection show on Sunday, November 29th at 9:00pm EST.

32 Conference Champions (Auto-Qualifiers)

*ACC – Louisville (19)
America East – New Hampshire (143)
*AAC – Southern Methodist (27)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (25)
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb (51)
*Big 10 – Minnesota (3)
*Big 12 – Texas (1)
Big East – Creighton (21)
Big Sky – Northern Arizona (35)
Big South – Coastal Carolina (81)
*Big West – Hawaii (26)
Colonial – UNC Wilmington (57)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (!6)
Horizon – Cleveland State (69)
*Ivy – Harvard (145)
MAAC – Fairfield (165)
MAC – Ohio (50)
MEAC – Howard (230)
MVC – Wichita State (34)
*MWC – Colorado State (31)
NEC – Robert Morris (205)
OVC – Belmont (171)
*Pac-12 – Washington (6)
Patriot – American (77)
*SEC – Texas A&M (10)
SoCon – Furman (78)
Southland – Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (68)
Summit – Denver (83)
Sun Belt – Arkansas St (18)
SWAC – Jackson State (310)
WAC – New Mexico State (64)
*WCC – BYU (15)


Locked At-Large Bids (19)
These teams are definitely at-large tournament teams.

ACC
North Carolina
Florida State

Big Ten
Penn State
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Illinois
Purdue
Michigan

BIG 12
Kansas
Iowa State

PAC-12
Southern California
Stanford
UCLA

SEC
Florida
Missouri
Kentucky

WCC
Loyola Marymount
San Diego


Bubble Teams
(23 teams competing for the last 13 spots left for NCAA's)

ACC
Miami
Pittsburgh
Virginia
Syracuse

Big East
Marquette
Villanova

Big Ten
Michigan State

Big 12
Baylor
TCU
Kansas State

Big West
Long Beach State

MVC
Missouri State
Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa

MWC
Boise State
Wyoming

PAC-12
Arizona
Colorado
Oregon
Arizona State

SEC
Arkansas

Big Sky
Idaho State

WCC
Santa Clara



SAFEST FIVE Bubble Teams

Missouri State - Missouri State has a great RPI and has great victories. Five or six top-50 wins. Yeah, that's a guarantee for an NCAA bid! Congratulations to the Bears!

Miami - Olga Strantzali returns to the NCAA tournament, and of course so do the rest of the Miami returners. Not sure Miami is going to make any noise in the tournament, but they are solidly in the tournament. No real reason to panic on Sunday. Just three top-50 victories, but when one is top 25 and their RPI is not borderline, Miami is in the tournament.

Marquette - Marquette has some of the best collection of victories when compared to other bubble teams. Marquette is in. It looked like they might be closer to one of the last few in, but Marquette probably shouldn't sweat it.

Santa Clara - Santa Clara's short on victories this season, but a good RPI will make up for it. Wins over BYU and LMU is enough to get the Broncos in. Santa Clara is yet again dancing, but can they make any noise?? The WCC has been quiet in the NCAA's (save of course Brigham Young)

Southern Illinois - Yup -- Ink in three teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. Southern Illinois is sort of the surprise team for me. They kind of flew under the radar until the last few weeks of the season, and now they've positioned themselves with an RPI in the high 30s/low 40s with 4 top-50 wins. That to me is good enough -- Salukis are in!


THE FOUR BEFORE the "Last Four"

Villanova - Villanova has a resume very similar to Santa Clara and is just behind in RPI. I think they'll get in. They're a few spots away from the cutoff, and have no real reason to leave them out. They were lighting it up against Xavier on Friday but then ran into a Creighton wall today. They have a few powerful pin hitters. Anyway, Villanova doesn't have anything to tell me they should be out, so I'm keeping them in.

Michigan State - I really didn't have much optimism for Michigan State, but here they are. Sparty is going dancing (and make that 9 teams from the Big Ten). Four top-50 victories with a mid-40s RPI is good enough to get in most years, and it should be this year. Sparty also has a top-25 win. Despite their ugly finish, I think Michigan State squeaks in. I bet against Michigan State getting in last year, and it ended up being my lone mistake. I hope it doesn't bite me again, but I am pretty sure Michigan State is in.

Oregon - Another team that I did not think would be in the NCAA's but here they are: Oregon. Oregon picked it up late and picked up two big victories (Arizona State and UCLA) that help them get in. Their RPI is borderline so I wouldn't be too confident if I was Oregon. Oregon's resume looks EXTREMELY similar to Kansas State & Baylor. Still, they look to be just on the right side of the RPI cutoff and I say they get in. If they were three or four spots down in RPI, they'd probably be out.

TCU - I find it hard to believe the committee is going to miss the fact that TCU has a win over the #1 or #2 RPI team Texas. TCU has three other top 50 wins to pair with its victory over Texas, and they beat Baylor twice. TCU is a little bit past the "RPI cutoff" but I think their resume is good enough to get in. They have a chance to pull an upset in College Station

LAST FOUR IN

Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh just missed out on the NCAA tournament last year, but this year, I think the Panthers are in. They didn't play a ton of good teams, but one top-25 win and three top-50 wins will probably be enough to squeeze Pittsburgh in.

Arizona State - This is one I think I am missing on, but my gut tells me the committee is going to put Arizona State in. They have two top-25 wins and I think that's what fuels them in. That and four top-50 victories should be good enough. The whole injury, missing player thing, is something we are going to see what the NCAA does. I'd rather see a team like Colorado replace ASU, but if they don't get in I'm afraid a weak team like Baylor would take their bid, and I'm not sure I'd agree with that. This will be an interesting case, but I'm putting the Sun Devils in...

Arizona - Arizona would be way more comfortable had they not lost to Oregon State. That loss really hurt their RPI and they need to hope that the committee will pull Arizona in. Well, I think they will. Four top 50 wins with a tough schedule played and a strong finish is enough to convince me to put Arizona in.

Kansas State - Kansas State is the last team in the NCAA tournament. This was a tough one. Kansas State just got swept today by Baylor, but I'm still going to put them in. I think when you compare Kansas State and Baylor resume's side by side, Kansas State's is better. KSU has a better RPI, and beat TCU and Iowa State while Baylor lost twice to both of those teams. Baylor also had a worse conference record and finished worse than KSU. Kansas State has just two top-50 wins (one top-25), but I think that is good enough to get in as the last team.



FIRST FOUR OUT

Baylor- Yeah I expect Baylor to be kinda ticked off if they don't get in and Kansas State gets in above them, but the truth is Kansas State looks better on paper. The committee has also been questionable when it comes to last minute matches. But when a team splits a series H2H, you look at everything else. I think Baylor's resume is very questionable. The win against Dayton is not impressive, and the win against Kansas State is just a split in the series. I don't think Baylor deserves a bid so I am going to keep them out. I think it will be interesting to see how the committee weighs the last match, but I don't think Baylor should get in. I'm not sure KSU should either. But KSU and Baylor resume's look similar to Oregon on paper, so who knows.

Northern Iowa - Northern Iowa is close to getting in but they just don't have enough on their resume to convince me they should get in over the teams around them. One top 25 win and three top-50 wins is not standing out when you look at the other bubble teams. Sure, they have one more top-50 win than some other teams but their RPI is a little out there. Northern Iowa was up 2-0 against Wichita State, and losing the next three sets may have sealed the deal on their season. Northern Iowa is one of the last four out.

Wyoming - Wyoming's RPI puts them too far out.. I thought Wyoming would have a chance to steal one of the last few bids, but the way the RPI dust settled it is not going to work that way. They have some good victories, but sketchy losses and a sketchy RPI is not going to cut it. The cowgirls were so close to dancing this year, hopefully they will be back next year.

Boise State - Boise State reminds me of SMU last year. Nothing really stellar on their resume, a bunch of teams under them can claim to be above them. Boise State is an easy team to jump over for a bid, but I don't know who exactly will end up doing it. Boise State needed to beat Colorado State or maybe beat Wyoming twice, and that would have got them in.

NEXT FOUR OUT

Long Beach State- Poor Beach. Poor Hudson. Terrific setter. But Long Beach State hasn't done enough to be an NCAA team. If anything, Colorado deserves a bid over Long Beach State. But still, Long Beach State guessed wrong on the RPI game and it severely hurt their strength of schedule. Their SOS is pretty horrible, and of course a lot of that is due to the Big West. When you consider that Arkansas State and Hawaii both only have one loss but Arkansas State is above Hawaii in RPI, you get the picture. Anyway, Long Beach is out..

Colorado- Another team I really feel for, I think Colorado's an NCAA team. I'd take out Kansas State and put Colorado in. But that's just the way the cookie crumbles. Some really good wins for Colorado, I think they needed just one more to get a bid. They came close several times, just imagine if they could add a win over USC to their resume. Sad for the Buffs. Sorry, but Kritza is going to be pissed off tomorrow.

Virginia - Virginia had a chance to get into the NCAA's, but the last few weeks didn't do themselves any justice. A win vs. Pittsburgh could have meant everything, or all it could have done is knock Pittsburgh out. Who knows? Virginia's wins over LMU and Iowa State made me think they had a bubble chance, but those early victories may not be as significant as they look. Virginia is out.

Arkansas - Arkansas had a chance to play itself into the NCAA tournament. Then, it lost to South Carolina and Texas A&M and that chance went away.


Bid Summary
4 at-large bids from ACC
2 at-large bids from Big East
8 at-large bids from Big Ten
4 at-large bids from Big 12
2 at-large bids from MVC
6 at-large bids from Pac 12
3 at-large bids from SEC
3 at-large bids from WCC


Projected Sixteen Seeds:
(1) Minnesota
(2) Texas
(3) USC
(4) Texas A&M
(5) Wisconsin
(6) Nebraska
(7) Washington
(8) Penn State
(9) Kansas
(10) Florida
(11) Stanford
(12) UCLA
(13) Ohio State
(14) BYU
(15) Missouri
(16) Louisville



Projected NCAA Tournament Bracket
(T*) this team is not located within 400 miles of a seeded team. Teams with (T*) can and will easily be swapped among each other.


Lexington Regional

(1) Minnesota vs. (T*) Robert Morris
(T*) Pittsburgh vs. Creighton

(16) Louisville VS. Belmont
Purdue vs. Western Kentucky

(8) Penn State vs. Howard
American vs. Villanova

(9) Kansas vs. (T*) Lipscomb
(T*) Kentucky vs. Wichita State



De Moines Regional

(4) Texas A&M vs. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi
(T*) Miami vs. TCU

(13) Ohio State vs. Cleveland State
Dayton vs. Ohio

(5) Wisconsin vs. (T*) New Hampshire
Marquette vs. Iowa State

(12) UCLA vs. (T*) UNCW
(T*) Hawaii vs. Loyola Marymount




San Diego Regional

(3) Southern California vs. (T*) Harvard
San Diego vs. (T*) Colorado State

(14) BYU vs. (T*) Denver
(T*) Arizona State vs. (T*) Michigan State

(6) Nebraska vs. (T*) New Mexico State
Kansas State vs. Missouri State

(11) Stanford vs. (T*) Furman
(T*) Michigan vs. Santa Clara




Austin Regional

(2) Texas vs. (T*) Jackson State
(T*) Oregon vs. Southern Methodist

(15) Missouri vs. Southern Illinois
Illinois vs. Arkansas State

(7) Washington vs. (T*) Fairfield
(T*) Northern Arizona vs. (T*) North Carolina

(10) Florida vs. (T*) Coastal Carolina
Florida State vs. (T*) Arizona



Tournament Resume's by Team (bubble teams only included)
---------------------------------------

ACC

Miami(FL)
Overall Record: 21-9
Conference Record: 14-6
Non-Conference Record: 7-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 42
RPI: 38
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-6
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 8-1
Significant Wins: 22 Florida St, 32 Purdue, 44 Kansas State
Significant Losses: 180 Oral Roberts
Last 10 games: 7-3

Pittsburgh
Overall Record: 23-9
Conference Record: 13-7
Non-Conference Record: 10-2
Strength of Schedule Rank: 96
RPI: 47
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-4
Record against 51-100 RPI: 1-4
Record against 101-200 RPI: 13-1
Significant Wins: 22 Florida St, 30 North Carolina, 38 Miami(FL)
Significant Losses: Virginia Tech
Last 10 games: 6-4

Virginia
Overall Record: 18-13
Conference Record: 10-10
Non-Conference Record: 8-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 44
RPI: 54
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-6
Record against 51-100 RPI: 5-4
Record against 101-200 RPI: 7-1
Significant Wins: 23 Iowa St, 29 Loyola Marymount, 47 Pittsburgh
Significant Losses: 169 Wake Forest
Last 10 games: 4-6

Big Sky

Idaho State
Overall Record: 21-9
Conference Record: 13-3
Non-Conference Record: 8-6
Strength of Schedule Rank: 71
RPI: 55
Record against 1-50 RPI: 2-7
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 10-2
Significant Wins: 45 Boise State, 42 Northwestern
Significant Losses: 126 Utah
Last 10 games: 7-3

Big East

Villanova
Overall Record: 25-8
Conference Record: 14-4
Non-Conference Record: 10-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 90
RPI: 43
Record against 1-50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 7-2
Significant Wins: 21 Creighton, 36 Marquette
Significant Losses: 121 UT Arlington, 144 Butler
Last 10 games: 6-4

Marquette
Overall Record: 21-11
Conference Record: 12-6
Non-Conference Record: 9-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 33
RPI: 36
Record against 1-50 RPI: 5-6
Record against 51-100 RPI:  0-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 10-2
Significant Wins: 25 Dayton, 23 Iowa State, 38 Miami(FL), 40 Missouri State, 43 Villanova
Significant Losses: 180 Oral Roberts
Last 10 games: 7-3


BIG TEN

Michigan State
Overall Record: 18-13
Conference Record: 10-10
Non-Conference Record: 8-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 37
RPI: 58
Record against 1-50 RPI: 4-10
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 7-1
Significant Wins: 11 Ohio State, 20 North Carolina, 30 Michigan, 33 Purdue
Significant Losses: 117 Miami (OH)
Last 10 games: 3-7

BIG 12

Baylor
Overall Record: 17-13
Conference Record: 5-11
Non-Conference Record: 12-2
Strength of Schedule Rank: 15
RPI: 49
Record against 1-50 RPI: 1-9
Record against 51-100 RPI: 4-3
Record against 101-200 RPI: 9-0
Significant Wins: 25 Dayton, 44 Kansas State, 52 Northern Iowa
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 3-7

Kansas State
Overall Record: 17-9
Conference Record: 9-5
Non-Conference Record: 8-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 49
RPI: 44
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-8
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 9-0
Significant Wins: 23 Iowa State, 49 Baylor, 46 TCU, 65 Illinois State
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 6-4

TCU
Overall Record: 19-9
Conference Record: 9-7
Non-Conference Record: 10-2
Strength of Schedule Rank: 61
RPI: 46
Record against 1-50 RPI: 4-8
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 5-0
Significant Wins: 1  Texas,  49 Baylor(x2), 44 Kansas State
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 5-5

BIG WEST

Long Beach State
Overall Record: 25-6
Conference Record: 13-3
Non-Conference Record: 12-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 191
RPI: 63
Record against 1-50 RPI: 2-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 6-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 7-1
Significant Wins: 29 Loyola Marymount, 28 San Diego
Significant Losses: 187 Saint Mary's
Last 10 games: 9-1

MVC

Missouri State
Overall Record: 22-9
Conference Record: 13-5
Non-Conference Record: 9-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 60
RPI: 40
Record against 1-50 RPI: 5-6
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 7-1
Significant Wins: 16 Western Kentucky, 38 Miami(FL), 34 Wichita State, 39 Southern Illinois(x2), 52 Northern Iowa
Significant Losses: 113 Loyola (IL)
Last 10 games: 9-1

Southern Illinois
Overall Record: 23-8
Conference Record: 12-4
Non-Conference Record: 9-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 72
RPI: 39
Record against 1-50 RPI: 4-4
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 8-2
Significant Wins: 34 Wichita State, 25 Dayton, 40 Missouri State, 52 Northern Iowa
Significant Losses: 127 UCF, 113 Loyola (IL)
Last 10 games: 7-3

Northern Iowa
Overall Record:19-14
Conference Record: 12-6
Non-Conference Record: 6-7
Strength of Schedule Rank: 27
RPI: 52
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-10
Record against 51-100 RPI: 4-1
Record against 101-200 RPI 5-1
Significant Wins: 21 Creighton, 40 Missouri State, 39 Southern Illinois
Significant Losses: 146 Indiana State, 113 Illinois-Chicago
Last 10 games: 6-4

MWC

Boise State
Overall Record: 23-7
Conference Record: 14-3
Non-Conference Record: 9-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 78
RPI: 45
Record against 1-50 RPI: 2-5
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 8-0
Significant Wins: 42 Northwestern, 48 Wyoming
Significant Losses: NONE
Last 10 games: 9-1

Wyoming
Overall Record: 24-6
Conference Record: 13-4
Non-Conference Record: 10-2
Strength of Schedule Rank: 134
RPI: 48
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 11-1
Significant Wins: 11 Ohio State, 36 Marquette, 45 Boise State, 55 Idaho State
Significant Losses: 176 Nevada, 231 San Jose State
Last 10 games: 8-2

PAC-12

Arizona
Overall Record: 18-12
Conference Record: 8-10
Non-Conference Record: 10-2
Strength of Schedule Rank: 18
RPI: 41
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-10
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 9-0
Significant Wins: 13 UCLA, 27 SMU, 53 Oregon
Significant Losses: Oregon State
Last 10 games: 5-5

Colorado
Overall Record: 18-12
Conference Record: 12-8
Non-Conference Record: 8-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 69
RPI: 66
Record against 1-50 RPI: 5-10
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 5-1
Significant Wins: 12 Stanford, 20 Florida State, 33 Arizona State, 41 Arizona(x2), 53 Oregon
Significant Losses: 126 Utah
Last 10 games: 7-3

Oregon
Overall Record: 16-13
Conference Record: 10-10
Non-Conference Record: 6-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 9
RPI: 53
Record against 1-50 RPI: 2-10
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 11-1
Significant Wins: 13 UCLA, 33 Arizona State
Significant Losses: 126 Utah
Last 10 games: 6-4

Arizona State
Overall Record: 19-12
Conference Record: 8-12
Non-Conference Record: 11-0
Strength of Schedule Rank: 23
RPI: 33
Record against 1-50 RPI: 5-7
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 8-2
Significant Wins: 12 Stanford, 24 Illinois, 31 Colorado State, 35 Northern Arizona, 41 Arizona
Significant Losses: 112 Washington State, 184 California
Last 10 games: 2-8

SEC

Arkansas
Overall Record: 17-13
Conference Record: 7-11
Non-Conference Record: 10-2
Strength of Schedule Rank: 46
RPI: 56
Record against 1-50 RPI: 4-5
Record against 51-100 RPI: 1-4
Record against 101-200RPI: 7-2
Significant Wins: 5 Florida, 4 Wisconsin, 10 Texas A&M, 44 Kansas State
Significant Losses: 164 South Carolina(x2)
Last 10 games: 4-6

WCC

Santa Clara
Overall Record: 22-8
Conference Record: 13-5
Non-Conference Record: 9-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 62
RPI:  37
Record against 1-50 RPI: 2-6
Record against 51-100 RPI: 8-0
Record against 101-200 RPI: 6-2
Significant Wins: 15 BYU, 29 Loyola Marymount
Significant Losses: 104 Portland
Last 10 games: 7-3

[redbeard2008]

Projected Seeds [RPI Futures] (fixed this)

Lexington?:
1. [3]USC v 16. [16]Louisville
8. [8]Kansas v 9. [9]Nebraska

Des Moines:
2. [1]Minnesota v 15. [16]Missouri
7. [4]Florida v 10. [11]BYU

Austin:
3. [2]Texas v 14. [14]Ohio State
6. [5]Wisconsin v 11. [12]TAMU

San Diego?:
4. [6]Penn State v 13. [10]UCLA
5. [7]Washington v 12. [13]Stanford

[17]Western Kentucky
[18]Kentucky
[19]Arkansas State

Lexington looks like a breeze for USC. Why not San Diego? I'm assuming that Louisville, Western Kentucky, and Kentucky will be in the same subregional, with a weaker drive-in, to help ensure one of the three makes it to Lexington.

San Diego regional, as you would have it, is brutal, with Penn State and three of the top four Pac-12 teams.

[Deleted]

How do you justify Penn State (#8 RPI) with a #4 tourney seed over Washington (#6 RPI)? I'm curious.

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 17:46:51 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Projected Seeds [RPI Futures]

Lexington?:
1. [3]USC v 9. [9]Nebraska
8. [8]Kansas v 16. [15]Louisville

Des Moines:
2. [1]Minnesota v 10. [11]BYU
7. [4]Florida v 15. [16]Missouri

Austin:
3. [2]Texas v 11. [12]TAMU
6. [5]Wisconsin v 14. [14]Ohio State

San Diego?:
4. [6]Penn State v 12. [13]Stanford
5. [7]Washington v 13. [10]UCLA

[17]Western Kentucky
[18]Kentucky
[19]Arkansas State

Lexington looks like a breeze for USC. Why not San Diego? I'm assuming that Louisville, Western Kentucky, and Kentucky will be in the same subregional, with a weaker drive-in, to help ensure one of the three makes it to Lexington.

San Diego regional, as you would have it, is brutal, with Penn State and three of the top four Pac-12 teams.

Can't see USC in Lexington and Penn State going to San Diego. They wouldn't send USC, as a top regional seed, anywhere but San Diego. $$$ dictates.

[redbeard2008]

Nov 17, 2015 18:36:09 GMT -5 @8m said:

Can't see USC in Lexington and Penn State going to San Diego. They wouldn't send USC, as a top regional seed, anywhere but San Diego. $$$ dictates.

Why I put a "?" on it. Louisville dictates that regional will be in Lexington, unless both they and Kentucky are seeded.

[n00b]

trojansc I see that you generically said they'd be bubble teams, but what is your opinion of the at large resumes of Wichita State, Western Kentucky, Arkansas State and Northern Arizona if they don't win their conference tournaments?

[southie]

Nov 17, 2015 18:56:02 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Nov 17, 2015 18:36:09 GMT -5 @8m said:

Can't see USC in Lexington and Penn State going to San Diego. They wouldn't send USC, as a top regional seed, anywhere but San Diego. $$$ dictates.

Why I put a "?" on it. Louisville dictates that regional will be in Lexington, unless both they and Kentucky are seeded.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but U of Kentucky is based in Lexington. Granted, even if UofK isn't a Top 16 seed, they do have to be placed in the Lexington Regional. But, there's nor reason to place USC in the Lexington regional unless UofK is seeded and opposite USC in the bracket.

[southie]

Nov 17, 2015 18:32:06 GMT -5 @8m said:

How do you justify Penn State (#8 RPI) with a #4 tourney seed over Washington (#6 RPI)? I'm curious.

Why exactly is PSU's RPI that low? Non-conference opponents?

I believe last season PSU had an RPI of 8-9 but was seeded #5 any way.

[n00b]

Nov 17, 2015 19:26:03 GMT -5 southie said:

Nov 17, 2015 18:32:06 GMT -5 @8m said:

How do you justify Penn State (#8 RPI) with a #4 tourney seed over Washington (#6 RPI)? I'm curious.

Why exactly is PSU's RPI that low? Non-conference opponents?

Yes.

6 of their 11 non-conference opponents are at .500 or worse.

[surfh2ovolleyjock]

Isn't New Hampshire the American East Champions due to having a higher percentage than Albany?

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 18:36:09 GMT -5 @8m said:

Nov 17, 2015 17:46:51 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Projected Seeds [RPI Futures]

Lexington?:
1. [3]USC v 9. [9]Nebraska
8. [8]Kansas v 16. [15]Louisville

Des Moines:
2. [1]Minnesota v 10. [11]BYU
7. [4]Florida v 15. [16]Missouri

Austin:
3. [2]Texas v 11. [12]TAMU
6. [5]Wisconsin v 14. [14]Ohio State

San Diego?:
4. [6]Penn State v 12. [13]Stanford
5. [7]Washington v 13. [10]UCLA

[17]Western Kentucky
[18]Kentucky
[19]Arkansas State

Lexington looks like a breeze for USC. Why not San Diego? I'm assuming that Louisville, Western Kentucky, and Kentucky will be in the same subregional, with a weaker drive-in, to help ensure one of the three makes it to Lexington.

San Diego regional, as you would have it, is brutal, with Penn State and three of the top four Pac-12 teams.

Can't see USC in Lexington and Penn State going to San Diego. They wouldn't send USC, as a top regional seed, anywhere but San Diego. $$$ dictates.

Didn't stop them from not sending Wisconsin to Minneapolis last year.

[trojansc]

Nov 17, 2015 19:27:55 GMT -5 surfh2ovolleyjock said:

Isn't New Hampshire the American East Champions due to having a higher percentage than Albany?

The projections in this thread are who wins the conference.

New Hampshire won tie-break for hosting conference tournament.

[trojansc]

Nov 17, 2015 18:32:06 GMT -5 @8m said:

How do you justify Penn State (#8 RPI) with a #4 tourney seed over Washington (#6 RPI)? I'm curious.

Penn State's RPI is probably going to finish better than 8. I also have Florida moving down from their projected RPI.

And also, you could easily flop Washington and Penn State to 4 and 5, and the bracket would hardly change.

[trojansc]

Nov 17, 2015 19:17:34 GMT -5 n00b said:

trojansc I see that you generically said they'd be bubble teams, but what is your opinion of the at large resumes of Wichita State, Western Kentucky, Arkansas State and Northern Arizona if they don't win their conference tournaments?

Wichita State is a good team. I think they are going to be very dangerous and yet again sent to the Kansas subregional. If they end up on the bubble, they are pretty much in from what I see right now. As long as Wichita State wins two this week, they shouldn't have a reason to worry. Even a loss in the semifinals of the MVC shouldn't hurt too much. If they make it to the championship, win or lose, they are in the tournament.


Western Kentucky is an NCAA tournament team and there are NO doubts about it. This is a league where the could be a potential bid-stealer.


Northern Arizona's a really interesting case. They are going to have their hands full in the semifinals and championship match of their conference tournament. Sacramento State took down NAU in Sacramento and just recently lost at Flagstaff last week. Sac State is who NAU is likely going to play in the semifinals. I actually DVR'd their most recent match, and even though NAU was better and I'd put money on them, teams really give their all at this time of the season. Especially the teams from mid-majors with nothing to lose. It puts pressure on the really good mid-majors who often at this time of the year have to win literally every game. I think if NAU wins the semifinals, they are in the NCAA tournament win or lose the conference championship (likely against North Dakota or Idaho State). NAU is a good team. I really like their setter (Jensen Barten, I think). I first became a fan when NAU played Hawaii last year or a couple years ago.


Arkansas State is another interesting case. There's a chance that if they lose their conference tournament, they could finish with an excellent RPI but literally zero top-50 victories. The reason why I don't think that is likely is because I think Missouri State is going to end up top 50. So, that should be enough to get in. But if we are going on history, Eastern Washington's team who was like 29-2 in 2002 with a top-25 victory did not get in the NCAA's, then neither should Arkansas State if they don't win their conference tournament. But, Arkansas State is pretty much in. I think Texas State could potentially update Arkansas State but don't count on it. And of course, #2 Appalachian State has lost twice to Arkansas State in the past week so, they're going to be hungry to get back at em.

[redbeard2008]

Nov 17, 2015 19:24:08 GMT -5 southie said:

Nov 17, 2015 18:56:02 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Why I put a "?" on it. Louisville dictates that regional will be in Lexington, unless both they and Kentucky are seeded.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but U of Kentucky is based in Lexington. Granted, even if UofK isn't a Top 16 seed, they do have to be placed in the Lexington Regional. But, there's nor reason to place USC in the Lexington regional unless UofK is seeded and opposite USC in the bracket.

If Louisville is seeded, but Kentucky isn't, then Kentucky would have to get by a seeded team to get to their own regional. If both are in a Louisville subregional (they are both within 400 miles), then one or the other would likely make it to Lexington. Throw in Western Kentucky, and that would be a failsafe.