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Post by doubleplay on Nov 28, 2015 13:34:52 GMT -5
They beat Louisville this year and probably will have a higher RPI after everything said and done. I don't think that's true. With a Louisville loss and a UNC win, RPI Futures put Louisville's RPI at 17 and UNC's at 20. Interesting where do you find the RPI futures? |
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Post by n00b on Nov 28, 2015 13:43:15 GMT -5
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Post by Cruz'n on Nov 28, 2015 14:07:22 GMT -5
Northern Iowa loses to Wichita State in MVC semifinals. They are probably toast with their bubble aspirations. RPI will still be around 53. With three wins over tournament teams (Creighton, Missouri St, Southern Illinois), I don't think they're out of the conversation. With all of the AQ's, some with RPI's over 100, Northern Iowa would need RPI under 50 to have a chance, IMO. |
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Post by bayarea on Nov 28, 2015 17:02:08 GMT -5
Creighton won the Big East tournament over Villanova today and is the AQ.
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Post by TuesdayGone on Nov 28, 2015 18:29:50 GMT -5
So is it likely that Washington and Wisconsin are in same region with #4 and #5 seeds?
Washington and Wisconsin are my 2 picks to win the national championship.....
I think Washington is the best team in country and Wisconsin is arguably playing the best vb in the big ten right now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2015 19:20:43 GMT -5
Even tho Washington is playing at a high level, I can see wisc and neb getting the 4 and 5 seeds.
The committee doesn't want too many from one conference
Advancing, and not good for $, tv ratings across regions.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 28, 2015 19:24:07 GMT -5
How often has the Committee seeded a conference champion lower than an also-ran from that conference? Ever?
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 28, 2015 19:33:38 GMT -5
This post will be finalized after Washington plays Wazzu tonight. the only thing that would change is uW's seed
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Post by bayarea on Nov 28, 2015 19:44:12 GMT -5
Wichita State is the AQ from the Missouri Valley Conference after an epic comeback 3-2 win over Missouri State in the championship match.
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Post by n00b on Nov 28, 2015 19:54:57 GMT -5
How often has the Committee seeded a conference champion lower than an also-ran from that conference? Ever? Florida State (#6) was seeded ahead of ACC-champion North Carolina (#7) last year. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 28, 2015 20:26:14 GMT -5
Baylor took the first set against Kansas State. ugh.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 28, 2015 20:55:23 GMT -5
Kansas St led 18-16 in the second set but lost 9 straight points as Baylor takes a 2-0 lead at home.
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Post by octonion on Nov 28, 2015 21:34:08 GMT -5
Here is the % chance of winning the NC per Pablo rating - assuming these 16 teams win their subregional (no HCA calculated).
USC 28.92%
Washington 28.55%
Texas 14.80%
Minnesota 7.09%
Penn State 4.40%
Nebraska 4.28%
Stanford 4.15%
Wisconsin 3.73%
BYU 1.31%
Kansas 1.13%
UCLA 0.75%
Louisville 0.40%
Florida 0.22%
Ohio State 0.22%
Texas A&M 0.04%
Missouri 0.02%
That makes more sense. Bug in my code - my apologies. Here are the corrected probabilities: Washington 25.9% Southern California 22.9% Penn St. 12.5% Nebraska 6.5% Minnesota 6.4% Texas 5.5% Stanford 4.2% Kansas 4.0% Florida 3.7% BYU 3.1% Wisconsin 2.2% UCLA 2.0% Ohio St. 0.7% Louisville 0.5% Missouri 0.0% Texas A&M 0.0% |
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Post by HawaiiVB on Nov 28, 2015 21:41:46 GMT -5
Bug in my code - my apologies. Here are the corrected probabilities: Washington 25.9% Southern California 22.9% Penn St. 12.5% Nebraska 6.5% Minnesota 6.4% Texas 5.5% Stanford 4.2% Kansas 4.0% Florida 3.7% BYU 3.1% Wisconsin 2.2% UCLA 2.0% Ohio St. 0.7% Louisville 0.5% Missouri 0.0% Texas A&M 0.0% And what is Hawai'i's percentage ? |
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Post by octonion on Nov 28, 2015 21:55:13 GMT -5
Bug in my code - my apologies. Here are the corrected probabilities: Washington 25.9% Southern California 22.9% Penn St. 12.5% Nebraska 6.5% Minnesota 6.4% Texas 5.5% Stanford 4.2% Kansas 4.0% Florida 3.7% BYU 3.1% Wisconsin 2.2% UCLA 2.0% Ohio St. 0.7% Louisville 0.5% Missouri 0.0% Texas A&M 0.0% And what is Hawai'i's percentage ? I only ran a sample bracket of 16. If you have a bracket you'd like me to run, I'd be happy to do so. But we'll get the official bracket tomorrow. |
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