FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[rainbowbadger]

You really think Wisconsin goes to Des Moines and Minnesota as the #1 seed goes to Lexington? What about keeping the top seed as close to home as possible?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to go to Des Moines rather than Kentucky AGAIN, but I don't see it. The committee couldn't be bothered to put us in our own back yard last year.

[gouci]

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Arizona State
Overall Record: 19-12
Conference Record: 8-12
Non-Conference Record: 11-0
Strength of Schedule Rank: 23
RPI: 33
Record against 1-50 RPI: 5-7
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 8-2
Significant Wins: 12 Stanford, 24 Illinois, 31 Colorado State, 35 Northern Arizona, 41 Arizona, 53 Oregon
Significant Losses: 112 Washington State, 184 California
Last 10 games: 2-8

Was the above what you used to put Arizona State in?

1. ASU's "unofficial RPI with bonuses" dipped to #39 with their last 2 losses.  Big difference between #33 & #39 when deciding.

2. ASU DOES NOT have a win over Oregon.  They only played once and Oregon SWEPT ASU 3-0.

3. Also consider the team with Gardner that had all those top 50 wins is not the team the committee will send to the NCAAs. They would be sending the team minus Gardner that went 4-12 with NO top 50 wins at all.

[seymour8]

Nov 29, 2015 0:36:19 GMT -5 n00b said:

Final RPI according to FIGStats...

1 Texas*
2 Minnesota*
3 USC
4 Wisconsin
5 Nebraska
6 Texas A&M*
7 Florida
8 Kansas
9 Washington*
10 Penn State
11 UCLA
12 Stanford
13 Western Kentucky*
14 BYU*
15 Arkansas State*
16 Creighton*
17 Ohio State
18 Missouri
19 Louisville*
20 Colorado State*
21 Kentucky
22 Dayton*
23 Iowa State
24 Florida State
25 North Carolina
26 Hawaii*
27 Loyola Marymount
28 Wichita State*
29 Illinois
30 San Diego
31 Michigan
32 SMU*
33 Northern Arizona*
34 Purdue
35 Missouri State
36 Marquette
37 Santa Clara
38 Arizona State
39 Miami-FL
40 Southern Illinois
41 Villanova
42 Baylor
43 Boise State
44 Wyoming
45 Northern Iowa
46 Arizona
47 Oregon
===========================
*************RPI Cutoff*************
===========================
48 TCU
49 Pittsburgh
51 Kansas State
53 Michigan State
54 Long Beach
56 Idaho State
57 Syracuse
59 Virginia
61 Arkansas
64 Colorado

Other Auto-Bids
50 Lipscomb*
52 Ohio*
58 UNCW*
60 New Mexico State*
65 TAMU-Corpus Christi*
67 Cleveland State*
78 American*
83 Coastal Carolina*
85 Denver*
91 Furman*
144 New Hampshire*
145 Harvard*
164 Fairfield*
169 Belmont*
203 Robert Morris*
228 Howard*
310 Jackson State*

ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi

This is the version with Bonuses

Would be a shame if Belmont got to stay close and travel up the road to Louisville and Lipscomb had to go to Kansas. Lipscomb RPI so much better than Belmont. I guess just throw the Mid's under the bus and move on. Belmont should do the traveling to Kansas and Lipscomb stay closer. IMHO.

[vbnerd]

The updated original post here marks several schools as T* indicating that they have to fly.
Among those

Fairfield is under 400 miles from Penn State and could be assigned there just as easily as American or Howard.

Robert Morris and Pitt are all within 400 miles of Penn State, Ohio State and Louisville. Obviously Pitt won't go to Louisville...

But Michigan could go to Louisville and put Purdue on a flight, or Purdue goes to Missouri again and Illinois gets a flight.

And Miami is less than 400 miles from Gainesville, so they could go to Florida just as easily as FSU.

For mileage the NCAA uses this tool. web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

[octonion]

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Final Bracketology (11/28)

Thanks, this is fantastic!

[vballfan92]

New to this so sorry if this is a stupid question but
how much weight does the committee put on the 'eye test' / last ten games? It seems like so much emphasis is put on RPI, which I'm sure is a great tool but still just a computer algorithm. If the committee wants the most competitive tournament I can't see them letting in a team like ASU who's simply not a tournament team without Gardner regardless of their RPI.

[BeachbytheBay]

Pittsburgh? really, their winning % against teams 51-100 (2-5) is not NCAA material and negates much of their top 50 record - not really much overall breadth of quality in that resume

K-State & Oregon & Arizon??? really?, some of these teams - all they've proven with their top 50 records is like the blind squirrel theory - if you give them enough chances, their bound to find a acorn among those games and win a couple - the only thing all of those 3 teams proved is that that they would be rewarded for the fact they play in a BCS conference - makes one want to vomit even more from RPI-induced sickness

& then there is Villanova & Marquette,

& god help us the NCAA if Baylor gets in

realize most of these teams from 40-60 have some warts that jump out

Colorado & Long Beach & TCU are more deserving than those teams

[trojansc]

Nov 29, 2015 11:21:26 GMT -5 vballfan92 said:

New to this so sorry if this is a stupid question but
how much weight does the committee put on the 'eye test' / last ten games? It seems like so much emphasis is put on RPI, which I'm sure is a great tool but still just a computer algorithm. If the committee wants the most competitive tournament I can't see them letting in a team like ASU who's simply not a tournament team without Gardner regardless of their RPI.

Last 10 matches are secondary criteria

[trojansc]

Nov 29, 2015 11:31:16 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Pittsburgh? really, their winning % against teams 51-100 (2-5) is not NCAA material and negates much of their top 50 record - not really much overall breadth of quality in that resume

K-State & Oregon & Arizon??? really?, some of these teams - all they've proven with their top 50 records is like the blind squirrel theory - if you give them enough chances, their bound to find a acorn among those games and win a couple - the only thing all of those 3 teams proved is that that they would be rewarded for the fact they play in a BCS conference - makes one want to vomit even more from RPI-induced sickness

& then there is Villanova & Marquette,

& god help us the NCAA if Baylor gets in

realize most of these teams from 40-60 have some warts that jump out

Colorado & Long Beach & TCU are more deserving than those teams

I dont necessarily disagree with any of this but I am just trying to look at it the way the NCAA does. LBSU and Colorado are just too far out. I know you're upset about the Beach but two top 50 wins and no top 25 with an RPI in the 50s is not gonna cut it. I know its RPI compounding. Sorry for your team.

[trojansc]

Nov 29, 2015 10:45:33 GMT -5 vbnerd said:

The updated original post here marks several schools as T* indicating that they have to fly.
Among those

Fairfield is under 400 miles from Penn State and could be assigned there just as easily as American or Howard.

Robert Morris and Pitt are all within 400 miles of Penn State, Ohio State and Louisville. Obviously Pitt won't go to Louisville...

But Michigan could go to Louisville and put Purdue on a flight, or Purdue goes to Missouri again and Illinois gets a flight.

And Miami is less than 400 miles from Gainesville, so they could go to Florida just as easily as FSU.

For mileage the NCAA uses this tool. web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

Maybe the wording isn't great. Several teams that are traveling could not have to travel, and vice verca. You could create a bunch of different scenarios for Ohio State, Louisville, etc

[trojansc]

Nov 29, 2015 10:24:36 GMT -5 gouci said:

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Arizona State
Overall Record: 19-12
Conference Record: 8-12
Non-Conference Record: 11-0
Strength of Schedule Rank: 23
RPI: 33
Record against 1-50 RPI: 5-7
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 8-2
Significant Wins: 12 Stanford, 24 Illinois, 31 Colorado State, 35 Northern Arizona, 41 Arizona, 53 Oregon
Significant Losses: 112 Washington State, 184 California
Last 10 games: 2-8

Was the above what you used to put Arizona State in?

1. ASU's "unofficial RPI with bonuses" dipped to #39 with their last 2 losses.  Big difference between #33 & #39 when deciding.

2. ASU DOES NOT have a win over Oregon.  They only played once and Oregon SWEPT ASU 3-0.

3. Also consider the team with Gardner that had all those top 50 wins is not the team the committee will send to the NCAAs. They would be sending the team minus Gardner that went 4-12 with NO top 50 wins at all.

i wasn't counting the win over Oregon, that was a input mistake. Arizona beat Oregon.

ASU is an interesting case. I don't think they shoild get in but we'll see. Maybe i'm wrong, but the two top 25 wins and other top 50 get them in. i'd rather see them than Baylor

[octonion]

Using the full projected bracket I get the following results:

github.com/octonion/volleyball-w/blob/master/ncaa_pbp/tournament/champion_p.csv


team_name p
Washington 0.205
USC     0.186
Penn St. 0.162
Minnesota 0.093
Nebraska 0.076
Texas   0.076
Wisconsin 0.052
UCLA     0.030
Kansas   0.029
BYU     0.018
Ohio St. 0.017
Florida   0.017
Stanford 0.017
Louisville 0.010
Illinois 0.008
Hawaii   0.002
North Carolina 0.001
Iowa St. 0.000
Jackson St. 0.000
Kansas St. 0.000
Kentucky 0.000
Lipscomb 0.000
Loyola Mary. 0.000
Marquette 0.000
Miami (FL) 0.000
Michigan 0.000
Michigan St. 0.000
Missouri 0.000
Missouri St. 0.000
New Hampshire 0.000
New Mexico St. 0.000
A&M C-Christi 0.000
Ohio     0.000
Oregon   0.000
Pittsburgh 0.000
Purdue   0.000
Robert Morris 0.000
SMU     0.000
San Diego 0.000
Santa Clara 0.000
Southern Ill. 0.000
TCU     0.000
Texas A&M 0.000
UNCW     0.000
Villanova 0.000
Western Ky. 0.000
Wichita St. 0.000
Northern Ariz. 0.000
American 0.000
Arizona   0.000
Arizona St. 0.000
Arkansas St. 0.000
Belmont   0.000
Chattanooga 0.000
Cleveland St. 0.000
Coastal Caro. 0.000
Colorado St. 0.000
Creighton 0.000
Dayton   0.000
Denver   0.000
Fairfield 0.000
Florida St. 0.000
Harvard   0.000
Howard   0.000


[trojansc]

BTW. - those of you not sold on Texas A&M, you heard it here first when they get a great seed. They beat Minnesota and have 6 other top 25 wins. More than Washington. And a better RPI than UW. I think A&M gets seeded above Wisconsin. I see A&M no lower than 6

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Nov 29, 2015 12:26:13 GMT -5 trojansc said:

BTW. - those of you not sold on Texas A&M, you heard it here first when they get a great seed. They beat Minnesota and have 6 other top 25 wins. More than Washington. And a better RPI than UW. I think A&M gets seeded above Wisconsin. I see A&M no lower than 6

I agree. If you look at results instead of wishful thinking, they belong there.

[redincolorado]

I'm thinking Minnesota should get the Des Moines regional.
I'm thinking Nebraska will have to go through TexASS in the Gregory or get shipped out to Seattle to play Washington in the venerable ole Hec Ed to get to Omaha.