FINALIZED Bracketology (11/28) [includes AQ's]

[redbeard2008]

Nov 17, 2015 18:32:06 GMT -5 @8m said:

How do you justify Penn State (#8 RPI) with a #4 tourney seed over Washington (#6 RPI)? I'm curious.

RPI Futures is predicting a #6 RPI for Penn State and a #7 RPI for Washington. Bumping each up two spots is reasonable.

[bluepenquin]

If Kentucky doesn't get a seed and Louisville does - Kentucky could still be sent to Ohio State. This would allow Illinois/Purdue along with Western Kentucky to go to Louisville. This would also require Ohio State to be in the Lexington region. Not saying this will happen, but it is a possibility. Especially when trying to find destinations for Illinois and Purdue (Missouri being the other option).

[redbeard2008]

Nov 17, 2015 22:55:21 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

If Kentucky doesn't get a seed and Louisville does - Kentucky could still be sent to Ohio State. This would allow Illinois/Purdue along with Western Kentucky to go to Louisville. This would also require Ohio State to be in the Lexington region. Not saying this will happen, but it is a possibility. Especially when trying to find destinations for Illinois and Purdue (Missouri being the other option).

My point was simply that if you want to increase the chances that either Louisville or Kentucky will make it to the Lexington Regional, you're better off stacking them in the same subregional, with one of them hosting. On the other hand, if you assign Louisville to the San Diego Regional, for instance, then Kentucky will have to climb over Ohio State in Columbus, or some other seeded team, to get to their own regional.

Granted that if Penn State and Wisconsin are assigned to the Lexington Regional, they'll bring their own fans.

[hapaguy]

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Bracketology (11/16)

Projected Sixteen Seeds:
(1) Southern California
(2) Minnesota
(3) Texas
(4) Penn State
(5) Washington
(6) Wisconsin
(7) Florida
(8) Kansas
(9) Nebraska
(10) BYU
(11) Texas A&M
(12) Stanford
(13) UCLA
(14) Ohio State
(15) Missouri
(16) Louisville

I hope these projections are wrong because it would be a travesty to see 25th ranked Texas A&M, and unranked Mizzou host ahead of Hawaii....

[trojansc]

Nov 18, 2015 0:39:31 GMT -5 hapaguy said:

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Bracketology (11/16)

Projected Sixteen Seeds:
(1) Southern California
(2) Minnesota
(3) Texas
(4) Penn State
(5) Washington
(6) Wisconsin
(7) Florida
(8) Kansas
(9) Nebraska
(10) BYU
(11) Texas A&M
(12) Stanford
(13) UCLA
(14) Ohio State
(15) Missouri
(16) Louisville

I hope these projections are wrong because it would be a travesty to see 25th ranked Texas A&M, and unranked Mizzou host ahead of Hawaii....

Hawaii is not going to be hosting... RPI

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 20:41:51 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Nov 17, 2015 18:32:06 GMT -5 @8m said:

How do you justify Penn State (#8 RPI) with a #4 tourney seed over Washington (#6 RPI)? I'm curious.

RPI Futures is predicting a #6 RPI for Penn State and a #7 RPI for Washington. Bumping each up two spots is reasonable.

OK, got it.

So you don't think the selection committee will leapfrog WA (2 L's) over PSU (3 L's) because of their records? 

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 19:40:22 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 17, 2015 18:32:06 GMT -5 @8m said:

How do you justify Penn State (#8 RPI) with a #4 tourney seed over Washington (#6 RPI)? I'm curious.

Penn State's RPI is probably going to finish better than 8. I also have Florida moving down from their projected RPI.

And also, you could easily flop Washington and Penn State to 4 and 5, and the bracket would hardly change.

True.

I guess a PSU victory over NE on the last regular season game could get them higher.

Although, I'd prefer PSU and WA don't meet up in the regionals. 

[bluepenquin]

Nov 17, 2015 23:33:49 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Nov 17, 2015 22:55:21 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

If Kentucky doesn't get a seed and Louisville does - Kentucky could still be sent to Ohio State. This would allow Illinois/Purdue along with Western Kentucky to go to Louisville. This would also require Ohio State to be in the Lexington region. Not saying this will happen, but it is a possibility. Especially when trying to find destinations for Illinois and Purdue (Missouri being the other option).

My point was simply that if you want to increase the chances that either Louisville or Kentucky will make it to the Lexington Regional, you're better off stacking them in the same subregional, with one of them hosting. On the other hand, if you assign Louisville to the San Diego Regional, for instance, then Kentucky will have to climb over Ohio State in Columbus, or some other seeded team, to get to their own regional.

Granted that if Penn State and Wisconsin are assigned to the Lexington Regional, they'll bring their own fans.

My comment wasn't related to something specifically said by anyone - and I agree with your point, if I was on the committee I would try and increase the chances that either Louisville or Kentucky (or both) made the Lexington regional w/o compromising the bracket.  I would be putting USC and UCLA in San Diego if the seedings are close enough, Minnesota and either Nebraska or Wisconsin in Des Moines, Texas A&M in Austin, etc....  Based on last year, it doesn't appear this is a priority for the committee.

It appears that the committee's priority after creating the 16 seeds and 64 team field is to maximize the # of teams within driving distance of the sub-regional.  And for this reason, I think there is a chance that Kentucky goes to Ohio State since it opens up driving spots for both Illinois (Missouri) and Purdue (Louisville).  OTH, Ohio State (Dayton, Ohio, Pittsburgh, Cleveland State) and Penn State (Pittsburgh, Villanova, and many AQs in the East) already have enough options that it may be unnecessary to bring Kentucky into that mix.

[trollhunter]

Nov 18, 2015 0:39:31 GMT -5 hapaguy said:

Nov 17, 2015 15:16:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Bracketology (11/16)

Projected Sixteen Seeds:
(1) Southern California
(2) Minnesota
(3) Texas
(4) Penn State
(5) Washington
(6) Wisconsin
(7) Florida
(8) Kansas
(9) Nebraska
(10) BYU
(11) Texas A&M
(12) Stanford
(13) UCLA
(14) Ohio State
(15) Missouri
(16) Louisville

I hope these projections are wrong because it would be a travesty to see 25th ranked Texas A&M, and unranked Mizzou host ahead of Hawaii....

Comittee doesn't look at AVCA and would not be a travesty

[Barefoot In Kailua]

The potential for 2 AVCA top 10 teams to meet in the second round of the tourney is a travesty. This scenario is the direct result of the Committee's over reliance on a faulty ratings system.

[Deleted]

But it is also UH's fault. If they REALLY cared, they'd make the one road trip that would solve it. They obviously have other priorities and maybe they should have other priorities. But don't blame this all on the NCAA. It's geography more than anything else.

[Barefoot In Kailua]

Nov 18, 2015 10:30:31 GMT -5 @ruffda said:

But it is also UH's fault. If they REALLY cared, they'd make the one road trip that would solve it. They obviously have other priorities and maybe they should have other priorities. But don't blame this all on the NCAA. It's geography more than anything else.

If you mean that UH is being penalized for being located where it is then I agree. A road trip wouldn't solve it, The Big West winning more non conference matches would. Shoji also needs to stop scheduling teams with Hawaii connections who don't add any value to their schedule.

And Minnesota has still never beaten Hawaii.

[dorothymantooth]

Nov 18, 2015 10:52:22 GMT -5 Barefoot In Kailua said:

Nov 18, 2015 10:30:31 GMT -5 @ruffda said:

But it is also UH's fault. If they REALLY cared, they'd make the one road trip that would solve it. They obviously have other priorities and maybe they should have other priorities. But don't blame this all on the NCAA. It's geography more than anything else.

If you mean that UH is being penalized for being located where it is then I agree. A road trip wouldn't solve it, The Big West winning more non conference matches would. Shoji also needs to stop scheduling teams with Hawaii connections who don't add any value to their schedule.

And Minnesota has still never beaten Hawaii.

a road trip and the right home tournament could solve a ton of their rpi issues. Not all, but many. They can't control their conference schedule, but they can their out of conference schedule. If the rpi isn't a part of the their scheduling strategy, than they should never complain about their seed, as they are not addressing it. I certainly think their home gate is a huge reason they dont hit the road for three matches, that is a ton of money out the door they are paying (airfare, travel) and dont have coming in (gate/concessions home matches).

[Deleted]

Money they could potentially get back by being seeded.

There's also no reason why the Big West can't improve its RPI.

[trollhunter]

Nov 18, 2015 10:22:12 GMT -5 Barefoot In Kailua said:

The potential for 2 AVCA top 10 teams to meet in the second round of the tourney is a travesty. This scenario is the direct result of the Committee's over reliance on a faulty ratings system.

No it is not a travesty that any combination of AVCA ranked teams meets in any round. It is a silly useless poll good only for getting some minimal press out about the sport. That you think AVCA matters for NCAA tournament is a travesty.