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Post by HappyVolley on Dec 1, 2015 17:40:58 GMT -5
Howard alone makes the sub-regional and ostensibly the path to the FF seem much easier than it is. If you think Penn State won't be challenged in the second round by Dayton or even Villanova, then you haven't been paying attention to Penn State this year. Yes. That is a problem with Penn St, not a function of having a strong draw. This thread is talking about the difficulty of the opponents, not how Penn St isn't near as good as they have been in the past. You know as well as I do that geography is a significant factor in the sub-regionals. Are you suggesting Howard should have been sent to the West Coast or Texas just so Penn State might have a first-round opponent that they wouldn't beat quite as badly as Howard will be beaten? Every year it is the same nonsense about Penn State's easy path to the FF, yet in most years, Penn State still beats the best in the country in the regional semis and finals and in the FF.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 18:17:20 GMT -5
Yes. That is a problem with Penn St, not a function of having a strong draw. This thread is talking about the difficulty of the opponents, not how Penn St isn't near as good as they have been in the past. You know as well as I do that geography is a significant factor in the sub-regionals. Are you suggesting Howard should have been sent to the West Coast or Texas just so Penn State might have a first-round opponent that they wouldn't beat quite as badly as Howard will be beaten? Every year it is the same nonsense about Penn State's easy path to the FF, yet in most years, Penn State still beats the best in the country in the regional semis and finals and in the FF. I get so tired of people who pretend to not understand that it is easier to win 3-4 tough matches than it is to win 5-6 tough matches.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 18:22:47 GMT -5
Yes. That is a problem with Penn St, not a function of having a strong draw. This thread is talking about the difficulty of the opponents, not how Penn St isn't near as good as they have been in the past. You know as well as I do that geography is a significant factor in the sub-regionals. Are you suggesting Howard should have been sent to the West Coast or Texas just so Penn State might have a first-round opponent that they wouldn't beat quite as badly as Howard will be beaten? Every year it is the same nonsense about Penn State's easy path to the FF, yet in most years, Penn State still beats the best in the country in the regional semis and finals and in the FF. So? I really don't know what any of this has to do with anything in this thread
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Post by HappyVolley on Dec 1, 2015 19:10:24 GMT -5
You know as well as I do that geography is a significant factor in the sub-regionals. Are you suggesting Howard should have been sent to the West Coast or Texas just so Penn State might have a first-round opponent that they wouldn't beat quite as badly as Howard will be beaten? Every year it is the same nonsense about Penn State's easy path to the FF, yet in most years, Penn State still beats the best in the country in the regional semis and finals and in the FF. So? I really don't know what any of this has to do with anything in this thread You could say the same about mikegarrison's whine about Penn State's easy path.
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Post by HappyVolley on Dec 1, 2015 19:12:18 GMT -5
You know as well as I do that geography is a significant factor in the sub-regionals. Are you suggesting Howard should have been sent to the West Coast or Texas just so Penn State might have a first-round opponent that they wouldn't beat quite as badly as Howard will be beaten? Every year it is the same nonsense about Penn State's easy path to the FF, yet in most years, Penn State still beats the best in the country in the regional semis and finals and in the FF. I get so tired of people who pretend to not understand that it is easier to win 3-4 tough matches than it is to win 5-6 tough matches. How many of the elite teams play 5-6 tough matches in the tournament? Given Penn State's sub-par season, I'd say their tough matches start in the second round.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 19:14:20 GMT -5
So? I really don't know what any of this has to do with anything in this thread You could say the same about mikegarrison's whine about Penn State's easy path. The whole thread IS ABOUT WHICH PATHS ARE EASY AND WHICH ARE HARD.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 19:15:28 GMT -5
I get so tired of people who pretend to not understand that it is easier to win 3-4 tough matches than it is to win 5-6 tough matches. How many of the elite teams play 5-6 tough matches in the tournament? Given Penn State's sub-par season, I'd say their tough matches start in the second round. What you say and what pablo says are quite different.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 19:23:39 GMT -5
I get so tired of people who pretend to not understand that it is easier to win 3-4 tough matches than it is to win 5-6 tough matches. How many of the elite teams play 5-6 tough matches in the tournament? Given Penn State's sub-par season, I'd say their tough matches start in the second round. Again, the difficulty of their competition is irrespective of how good they are. If Penn St is facing a challenge in the second round of the tournament, it is because they aren't that good, not because the opponents are strong.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 19:27:58 GMT -5
How many of the elite teams play 5-6 tough matches in the tournament? Given Penn State's sub-par season, I'd say their tough matches start in the second round. Again, the difficulty of their competition is irrespective of how good they are. If Penn St is facing a challenge in the second round of the tournament, it is because they aren't that good, not because the opponents are strong. Some if this is just posturing. PSU is still very good this year. I would say that some their fans just don't grasp that *most* teams usually face teams in the second round that at least remotely pose a threat. Because of geography and the NCAA travel policies, PSU is not used to that idea.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 19:57:39 GMT -5
Again, the difficulty of their competition is irrespective of how good they are. If Penn St is facing a challenge in the second round of the tournament, it is because they aren't that good, not because the opponents are strong. Some if this is just posturing. PSU is still very good this year. I would say that some their fans just don't grasp that *most* teams usually face teams in the second round that at least remotely pose a threat. Because of geography and the NCAA travel policies, PSU is not used to that idea. Dayton is ranked #23 in RPI. That is the best they got. They are #46 in Pablo, and are not receiving votes in either the AVCA or Rich Kern polls. By second round NCAA tournament standards...no, that is not a tough draw for a seeded team, even if it is better than they are used to. Granted, it's better than what Minnesota has at their place, but compared to the others? USC - San Diego (#30 in Rich Kern, receiving votes in AVCA, 20 in Pablo Creighton - at North Carolina (25 in Rich Kern, 23 in AVCA, 28 Pablo) Kansas - Missouri (26 in RK, 32 in Pablo, 25 in AVCA) Stanford - Colorado St (AVCA 13, RK 13 Pablo 12) Washington - Mich St or Ark St (RK rec votes, Pablo 27 - 30) Ohio St - Kentucky (Pablo 30, RK 24, AVCA 22) BYU - Arizona (AVCA rev votes, RK 21, Pablo 26) Nebraska - Wich St (Pablo 38, AVCA rec votes) Texas - Purdue (AVCA 17, RK 14 Pablo 22) UCLA - Michigan (RK 19, AVCA rec votes, Pablo 25) Florida - Az St or Fla St (Pablo 17, AVCA 19, RK 22) Wisconsin - Oregon in the FIRST round (RK 29, Pablo 20) TAMU - Hawaii Louisville - Illinois (Pablo 19, AVCA 21, RK 18) So Penn St and Minnesota are the only teams that don't face anyone at least receiving votes. Nebraska is the closest with Wich St at #38 in Pablo. As subregionals go, this is not tough.
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Post by Babar on Dec 1, 2015 20:09:59 GMT -5
If you are one of the top eight seeds there is no advantage IMO to playing a team like Howard in the first round. If anything, it is a disadvantage to play a team like that if you play a competitive team the second night. At this point in the season, every coach wants to see her team get better every match . . . it is difficult to do that when a playing a team that can't be competitive in any facet of the game.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 20:16:46 GMT -5
If you are one of the top eight seeds there is no advantage IMO to playing a team like Howard in the first round. If anything, it is a disadvantage to play a team like that if you play a competitive team the second night. At this point in the season, every coach wants to see her team get better every match . . . it is difficult to do that when a playing a team that can't be competitive in any facet of the game. I'm sure Wisconsin will be happy about that as they play Oregon. "This could be worse ... we could have gotten a walk-over matchup."
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Post by Babar on Dec 1, 2015 20:34:00 GMT -5
Wisconsin's goal isn't to just have an easy walkover in their first match . . . none of the top coaches think that way. While Shef may have preferred an easier match than Oregon he also knows, if I can't handle Oregon and Iowa State in Madison, I wouldn't be competitive with Texas in Austin. I expect Wisconsin to play well, win and be competitive in Austin. IMO while who you play is obviously important, where you play may be even more important. This is why IMO Texas has the best chance of any team to reach the Final Four.
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Post by zenyada on Dec 1, 2015 21:41:00 GMT -5
Analysis of SubRegionals: This is, I think, the first year since I started doing this that Penn St does not have the easiest path. And it's not even close. Minnesota's path to the sub-regionals is among the weakest you will ever see. The sad part of this is that two of the teams are at-large selections. It's one thing when Penn St gets an easy path because it has a bunch of local AQs, who aren't up to the same level as the rest of the field. But these are at-large teams. Sad.Overall, the easiest paths are for the seeded teams, with the exception of North Carolina, who has the advantage of having one of the weaker seeded teams and is playing at home. The hardest paths for seeded teams are Stanford, Creighton and Wisconsin. Stanford is in the same bracket as Colorado St, but even their first round match against NMSU is harder than usual. Creighton doesn't get the home court advantage, and that hurts. Wisconsin has really good first round opponent, if they can get through there, the second round is easier, but that tough opponent up front makes it tougher to get through. Colorado for Villanova please.
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Post by SportyBucky on Dec 1, 2015 21:47:43 GMT -5
Some if this is just posturing. PSU is still very good this year. I would say that some their fans just don't grasp that *most* teams usually face teams in the second round that at least remotely pose a threat. Because of geography and the NCAA travel policies, PSU is not used to that idea. Dayton is ranked #23 in RPI. That is the best they got. They are #46 in Pablo, and are not receiving votes in either the AVCA or Rich Kern polls. By second round NCAA tournament standards...no, that is not a tough draw for a seeded team, even if it is better than they are used to. Granted, it's better than what Minnesota has at their place, but compared to the others? USC - San Diego (#30 in Rich Kern, receiving votes in AVCA, 20 in Pablo Creighton - at North Carolina (25 in Rich Kern, 23 in AVCA, 28 Pablo) Kansas - Missouri (26 in RK, 32 in Pablo, 25 in AVCA) Stanford - Colorado St (AVCA 13, RK 13 Pablo 12) Washington - Mich St or Ark St (RK rec votes, Pablo 27 - 30) Ohio St - Kentucky (Pablo 30, RK 24, AVCA 22) BYU - Arizona (AVCA rev votes, RK 21, Pablo 26) Nebraska - Wich St (Pablo 38, AVCA rec votes) Texas - Purdue (AVCA 17, RK 14 Pablo 22) UCLA - Michigan (RK 19, AVCA rec votes, Pablo 25) Florida - Az St or Fla St (Pablo 17, AVCA 19, RK 22) Wisconsin - Oregon in the FIRST round (RK 29, Pablo 20) TAMU - Hawaii Louisville - Illinois (Pablo 19, AVCA 21, RK 18) So Penn St and Minnesota are the only teams that don't face anyone at least receiving votes. Nebraska is the closest with Wich St at #38 in Pablo. As subregionals go, this is not tough. RPI is BS
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