trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 16, 2017 22:55:27 GMT -5
Minor correction for the WAC: The four teams logjammed at the top are UTGRV, Bakersfield, Utah Valley, and NM State (not Seattle). Whoops - you are right. New Mexico State is usually top or near the top in the WAC. Though Seattle could still make a run. I think it was 3 years ago Seattle almost won the championship as the #5 or #6 seed. |
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 16, 2017 23:59:02 GMT -5
I feel like Iowa right now is playing the best of the middle of the pack B1G teams and are even more likely to get in over Michigan and OSU, both who have been struggling. Maryland has spent six of their first eight on the road in the B1G, so its hard to tell where they fit in, if at all. I just don't see Indiana or NW making any kind of run. I agree Iowa is well positioned but their issue is big wins. Michigan @ home will not do it on its own, they need to start banking results to take advantage of where they are. I doubt it’ll take big wins. If we go undefeated against Northwestern, Indiana, and Maryland... and then take any 2 matches off Michigan, Ohio St. x2, or Illinois x2 (or anyone else for that matter) then we’re probably easily right at #40 in RPI and that should suffice. |
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Post by gobruins on Oct 17, 2017 7:36:12 GMT -5
Interesting that you have 29 of the 32 at-large spots going to Power 5 conference schools. And, not much chance of that changing, as 7 of the first 8 out are Power 5 schools.
With all the football money available to the Power 5 conference schools, does anyone see any path for this to change going forward?
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Post by trainermch on Oct 17, 2017 7:47:38 GMT -5
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bluepenquin
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Posts: 13,306
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 17, 2017 7:54:04 GMT -5
Last 4 IN: LSU, Maryland, Miami-FL, Notre Dame
First 4 OUT: Iowa, Auburn, North Carolina, Hawaii
Next 4 OUT: Alabama, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas
If we add Texas A&M and Ohio State (overall record issues) to this list of bubble teams - very interesting list. And then the possibility of Western Kentucky or Wichita State losing their conference tournament.
Other Bubble teams to this list (IMO) - Florida State, Michigan, UNI/Mo State 2nd place, Missouri (if Crow misses more matches), Washington State.
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Post by n00b on Oct 17, 2017 8:35:54 GMT -5
Last 4 IN: LSU, Maryland, Miami-FL, Notre Dame First 4 OUT: Iowa, Auburn, North Carolina, Hawaii Next 4 OUT: Alabama, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas If we add Texas A&M and Ohio State (overall record issues) to this list of bubble teams - very interesting list. And then the possibility of Western Kentucky or Wichita State losing their conference tournament. Other Bubble teams to this list (IMO) - Florida State, Michigan, UNI/Mo State 2nd place, Missouri (if Crow misses more matches), Washington State. No conference tournament for Wichita in the American. |
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Post by jaypak on Oct 17, 2017 11:26:30 GMT -5
Last 4 IN: LSU, Maryland, Miami-FL, Notre Dame First 4 OUT: Iowa, Auburn, North Carolina, Hawaii Next 4 OUT: Alabama, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas If we add Texas A&M and Ohio State (overall record issues) to this list of bubble teams - very interesting list. And then the possibility of Western Kentucky or Wichita State losing their conference tournament. Other Bubble teams to this list (IMO) - Florida State, Michigan, UNI/Mo State 2nd place, Missouri (if Crow misses more matches), Washington State. No conference tournament for Wichita in the American. And because of that, outside of Conference USA, no chance of bid thieves this year, which means the tournament will be heavily tilted toward the P5 and upper mid-major conferences that traditionally get multiple bids. |
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Post by jaypak on Oct 17, 2017 11:29:29 GMT -5
Great analysis. Two points where I differ...
1) I think it's possible for Kentucky to host without beating Florida again.
2) Creighton won't host if Marquette does go on to win the Big East, nor would they deserve to. That said, I think there's a chance Marquette could sweep Creighton and Creighton still wins the conference by being more consistent against everyone else. But Marquette has the big advantage in the conference tourney by playing at home.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 17, 2017 11:39:00 GMT -5
Creighton has no losses outside the RPI Top 30 and 3 wins against Top 15 RPI competition (2 on the road). I don't see the Committee not rewarding Creighton with a seed if they finish with a Top 16 RPI (and per the Futures it seems they can afford one more loss and do so).
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 17, 2017 11:49:47 GMT -5
I agree Iowa is well positioned but their issue is big wins. Michigan @ home will not do it on its own, they need to start banking results to take advantage of where they are. I doubt it’ll take big wins. If we go undefeated against Northwestern, Indiana, and Maryland... and then take any 2 matches off Michigan, Ohio St. x2, or Illinois x2 (or anyone else for that matter) then we’re probably easily right at #40 in RPI and that should suffice. Agreed, but that does mean adding 3-4 Top 50 wins. It was more a comment on resume as of today - Ohio St. and Maryland have already pulled Top 25 wins, and Michigan has more meaningful wins already despite the H2H loss; Iowa's work is in front of them. |
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Post by Hawk Attack on Oct 17, 2017 12:02:08 GMT -5
I doubt it’ll take big wins. If we go undefeated against Northwestern, Indiana, and Maryland... and then take any 2 matches off Michigan, Ohio St. x2, or Illinois x2 (or anyone else for that matter) then we’re probably easily right at #40 in RPI and that should suffice. Agreed, but that does mean adding 3-4 Top 50 wins. It was more a comment on resume as of today - Ohio St. and Maryland have already pulled Top 25 wins, and Michigan has more meaningful wins already despite the H2H loss; Iowa's work is in front of them. True. I guess the crazy part of the B1G is outside of the aforementioned three they need to run through, any other win is a Top 50 win. 5/8 of their matches have been PSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, & Minnesota x2 so now the real gauntlet begins of actually needing to pick up wins. |
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Post by Babar on Oct 17, 2017 12:21:37 GMT -5
Marquette losing to Villanova opens the door for Creighton to win regular season Big East Championship if they can win @ Marquette.
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Post by Babar on Oct 17, 2017 12:24:03 GMT -5
Last 4 IN: LSU, Maryland, Miami-FL, Notre Dame First 4 OUT: Iowa, Auburn, North Carolina, Hawaii Next 4 OUT: Alabama, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas If we add Texas A&M and Ohio State (overall record issues) to this list of bubble teams - very interesting list. And then the possibility of Western Kentucky or Wichita State losing their conference tournament. Other Bubble teams to this list (IMO) - Florida State, Michigan, UNI/Mo State 2nd place, Missouri (if Crow misses more matches), Washington State. Florida not eager to see Florida State as an at large. Not that Florida isn't the much stronger team but it will require more energy than usual for a first-round match. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 17, 2017 12:39:57 GMT -5
Great analysis. Two points where I differ... 1) I think it's possible for Kentucky to host without beating Florida again. 2) Creighton won't host if Marquette does go on to win the Big East, nor would they deserve to. That said, I think there's a chance Marquette could sweep Creighton and Creighton still wins the conference by being more consistent against everyone else. But Marquette has the big advantage in the conference tourney by playing at home. For point #1 I meant host a regional. Like a top 4 seed for Kentucky. |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 17, 2017 12:41:24 GMT -5
Creighton has no losses outside the RPI Top 30 and 3 wins against Top 15 RPI competition (2 on the road). I don't see the Committee not rewarding Creighton with a seed if they finish with a Top 16 RPI (and per the Futures it seems they can afford one more loss and do so). 16-2 Creighton would average 15.5 in RPI - which means there is a 48% chance they would be outside the top 16. They go 17-1, then there is a 6% chance they fall outside the top 16. And if they go 15-3 they still have a 29% chance of being inside the top 16. But then the conference tournament changes all of these percentages.
What I am finding is that an RPI Futures of 15 with a specific record has a pretty good probability of being something other than 15. 15 may be most likely, but it is usually much less than 50% - and that is when we know the number wins. The updated +1/-1 is showing a larger range of outcomes than I previously believed.
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