|
|
Post by dman on Oct 17, 2017 14:26:30 GMT -5
Firedup, if Florida is running in system I would put them up with anyone in the country! Plenty of time for them to clean up the passing and kick into a higher gear. Your setter has been in a small funk with doubles and net calls; she will get that fixed quick enough. This loss could be a good thing for them. The things that I have noticed from them over the past two weeks is they have the appearance of "coasting" thru games. Playing sloppy but able to close when they had to. You get into too many bad habits playing this way and when the competition gets stiff you get burned; aka Kentucky. Will be interesting to see if this loss will light a fire and see them dominate some of their next matches.
|
|
|
|
Post by firedup on Oct 17, 2017 14:28:32 GMT -5
In order to be considered the best setter doesn't require playing head to head, imo.
And Hentz plays for Stanford. Also, not a setter.
|
|
|
|
Post by FreeBall on Oct 17, 2017 14:29:53 GMT -5
no offense but I stopped reading after paragraph 1. It's clear you and I are discussing different things. I'll make it short and sweet for you. The Gators have 4, FOUR, Top 25 wins. #1 Texas, #5 Nebraska, #16 UNC and #19 FSU. The NCAA Tournament Committee doesn't give a sh!t about the AVCA rankings and especially not where a team such as Florida State or UNC was rated in the time frame of a match earlier in the season. For purposes of Top 25 wins, they look only to the RPI, which presently has Texas at #4, Nebraska at #6, Florida State at #30 and UNC at #50. That's only two wins over Top 25 teams for Florida at this time. volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/70949/ncaa-rpi-oct-15-2017 |
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 17, 2017 14:31:23 GMT -5
I'll make it short and sweet for you. The Gators have 4, FOUR, Top 25 wins. #1 Texas, #5 Nebraska, #16 UNC and #19 FSU. The NCAA Tournament Committee doesn't give a sh!t about the AVCA rankings and especially not where a team such as Florida State or UNC was rated in the time frame of a match earlier in the season. For purposes of Top 25 wins, they look only to the RPI, which presently has Texas at #4, Nebraska at #6, Florida State at #30 and UNC at #50. That's only two wins over Top 25 teams for Florida at this time. volleytalk.net/thread/70949/ncaa-rpi-oct-15-2017It's also only two wins over ranked teams by the AVCA. There are plenty of teams that could point to early season wins over over/mis-ranked teams like Ohio St. and Michigan, but they aren't... for a reason. |
|
|
|
Post by eotexas5 on Oct 17, 2017 14:34:27 GMT -5
In order to be considered the best setter doesn't require playing head to head, imo. And Hentz plays for Stanford. Also, not a setter. No one mentioned Hentz. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2017 14:40:27 GMT -5
This is simply not true. In addition to beating pre-season #1 Texas (3-1) and #5 Nebraska (3-2) the opening weekend, the Gators swept then ranked #16 UNC in San Juan, Puerto Rico in the second weekend of the season and destroyed then #19 Florida State in 3 in Exactech Arena. Their only other scheduled Top 25 opponent (other than Kentucky), then #21 Michigan State, flew into Gainesville, but due to concerns about the potential impact of Hurricane Irma, the Spartans flew home without playing that match. For those with short-term memory issues, the Gators thumped the Spartans 3-0, with scores of -13, -16, -19 in East Lansing in 2016. So, the Gators are 4-1 against Top 25 teams in 2017, having one other mission scrubbed. For all of you out there that want to doubt or hate on the Gators, please pile on. It's absolutely amazing to me to see how many celebrate a team's "failure". You know who you are, who were just waiting to pounce, once someone knocked them off the three week perch that they were on. Wow, it's so disheartening to follow a 14-1 team. Listen, the Gators didn't ask to be ranked number 1. Give Kentucky their due. They were the better team that day, and are playing better at this point of the season. But for those that want to suggest that the Gators were a paper tiger without real merit of being at the top of the poll, I simply ask you to have your team lineup and play them. The beautiful thing is that NOTHING that is said on this blog, one way or another, is going to make an ounce of difference as to how the season plays out. The Gators, and every other team, don't have to take on the critics, nor more than one team at a time. Kentucky, right now, presents a challenging matchup. I'm not sure how many other teams present the same challenges to the Gators. I'm also not sure who would want to play Kentucky right now. Ok, I'll say it and take the requisite heat. There is no setter, IN THE COUNTRY, running a better offense right now, then Madison Lilley. If the season were to end today, she should be named the setter of the year. Yes, better than SSS, Hunter, Grey, Sponcil, Poulter, Havili, you name it. She is tremendous and this is an opinion formed well before Sunday. As for the Gators, perhaps one of the greatest opportunities that they still have is fulfilling their goal of playing a complete match. Outside of perhaps the Florida State match, I'm not sure that they have truly hit on all cylinders in a contest. Instead of being critical of that, or somehow suggesting that they don't improve as the season goes along, I'd think that other teams might look at that and be concerned. The Gators have a TON of upside. Again, like everyone, they get to play one opponent at time. So keep piling on, remind all VTers how shaky they are, that they never improve, that they pass poorly, that they play in a weak conference, that they haven't been to the Final Four forever, etc. etc. They know who they are and what they are capable of. Whether you believe that or not is frankly irrelevant. Thankfully the only measuring stick that truly matters is whether they can score 75 points faster than the team they are playing does. Something tells me that they are ok with this and will be up for the challenge, through the balance of the SEC and into the tournament. Here's to hoping for a great seed, and more importantly, playing loose and up to their ability. It's significant. no offense but I stopped reading after paragraph 1. It's clear you and I are discussing different things. Lol you are iconic. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2017 14:42:14 GMT -5
no offense but I stopped reading after paragraph 1. It's clear you and I are discussing different things. I'll make it short and sweet for you. The Gators have 4, FOUR, Top 25 wins. #1 Texas, #5 Nebraska, #16 UNC and #19 FSU. HONEY LISTEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT BRACKETOLOGY NOT THE AVCA POLL. RPI. HELLOOOOOOOOOO. UNC AND FSU ARE TRASH THIS SEASON BYE |
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,306 
|
Post by bluepenquin on Oct 17, 2017 14:59:09 GMT -5
re seeding, the early look for the top 4 is interesting. the nitty gritty favors some teams and not others, depending on the category. futures says that Florida loses two more matches....meh, I guess, but likely just 1, if that, to Kentucky. The PROBLEM with Florida's resume is the lack of top 25 wins. They currently sit at just 2 top 25 wins, with probably only one other chance get one (at Kentucky). Meanwhile the top Big 10 and Pac-12 teams have far more and have the opportunity to pick up more. BUT, is the committee going to punish Florida for something they cannot control which is the strength of the SEC? Florida has arguably the best two wins against Texas and Nebraska, which really helps the in the "record against teams also in consideration" category. But, it was the first week of the season, at home. Penn State can hold two wins over Stanford over the committee's head, but it's still just 1 team rather than Florida's two wins against two teams in consideration for top seeds. Minnesota has the win against Texas. Texas doesn't have a win against anyone OOC in the top seed conversation and neither does Kentucky or Stanford. Stanford's claim to a top seed will be it's dominance within conference. It didn't work out well for Washington last year, but the Pac-12 DOES have more top 25 rpi teams this year. I think it's going to really come down to the committee balancing the sheer number of top 25 wins versus OOC wins against teams also in consideration. and perhaps the subjective regional rankings/polls plays a bigger role this year. I think Wisconsin is in a bit of a bind as they have no good OOC wins, despite having a really strong non-conference RPI. My early crystal ball would probably say..... My early seeds/regionals would be 1- Penn State (Good mixture of a record against other teams in consideration non conference and lots of top 25 wins in conference) 16- Creighton 9-Kansas 8- Wisconsin 2- Florida (Best record of teams in consideration for a top seed) 15- Wichita State 10- Washington 7- Kentucky 3- Stanford (Best chance to run with the fewest losses against what looks to be a steady top heavy rpi top 25 gamut of Washington, Utah, Oregon, UCLA, USC by season end) 14- Oregon 11- BYU 6- Texas 4- Nebraska (the record against UCLA helps, but it's just not quality like against Stanford or against Texas or Florida....losses to UNI and to a smaller extent Oregon come into play here) 13- Michigan State 12- Utah 5- Minnesota I have my questions about Wichita State getting a seed - I am now going to look more into their RPI Future probabilities. I am thinking a 5th PAC team over Wichita State - but like you said, this is early and there is a LOT of VB left.
I am most interested in the top 4 seeds - as in my mind this is down to just 7 possibilities. I like your thinking on this (along with the entire post). The more I look at this - I am not liking Texas chances of hosting. I think they will need some help to get there. I think Nebraska has some real problems unless they run the table. Florida/Kentucky is another interesting situation where H2H, RPI, T25 wins and Conference championship are pointing in different directions - or could both host? Minnesota - everyone seems to be writing them off, but they have the strong RPI. Wisconsin finished 3rd in the B1G last year and hosted because of the strong RPI - but they were not seeded ahead of Nebraska or Minnesota. Which will be more valuable - Nebraska's conference standing and H2H, or Minnesota's RPI?
|
|
|
|
Post by Babar on Oct 17, 2017 15:05:37 GMT -5
Firedup, if Florida is running in system I would put them up with anyone in the country! Plenty of time for them to clean up the passing and kick into a higher gear. Your setter has been in a small funk with doubles and net calls; she will get that fixed quick enough. This loss could be a good thing for them. The things that I have noticed from them over the past two weeks is they have the appearance of "coasting" thru games. Playing sloppy but able to close when they had to. You get into too many bad habits playing this way and when the competition gets stiff you get burned; aka Kentucky. Will be interesting to see if this loss will light a fire and see them dominate some of their next matches. The point is that every good team could beat every other good team if they were "in-system." When better teams meet at least 30% of the match is played out of system. Why? Because the serving is tougher and the setters are forced to dig more attacks, among many other things. This is not going to change no matter who Florida or anyone else plays in the NCAA tournament. |
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 17, 2017 15:09:51 GMT -5
re seeding, the early look for the top 4 is interesting. the nitty gritty favors some teams and not others, depending on the category. futures says that Florida loses two more matches....meh, I guess, but likely just 1, if that, to Kentucky. The PROBLEM with Florida's resume is the lack of top 25 wins. They currently sit at just 2 top 25 wins, with probably only one other chance get one (at Kentucky). Meanwhile the top Big 10 and Pac-12 teams have far more and have the opportunity to pick up more. BUT, is the committee going to punish Florida for something they cannot control which is the strength of the SEC? Florida has arguably the best two wins against Texas and Nebraska, which really helps the in the "record against teams also in consideration" category. But, it was the first week of the season, at home. Penn State can hold two wins over Stanford over the committee's head, but it's still just 1 team rather than Florida's two wins against two teams in consideration for top seeds. Minnesota has the win against Texas. Texas doesn't have a win against anyone OOC in the top seed conversation and neither does Kentucky or Stanford. Stanford's claim to a top seed will be it's dominance within conference. It didn't work out well for Washington last year, but the Pac-12 DOES have more top 25 rpi teams this year. I think it's going to really come down to the committee balancing the sheer number of top 25 wins versus OOC wins against teams also in consideration. and perhaps the subjective regional rankings/polls plays a bigger role this year. I think Wisconsin is in a bit of a bind as they have no good OOC wins, despite having a really strong non-conference RPI. My early crystal ball would probably say..... My early seeds/regionals would be 1- Penn State (Good mixture of a record against other teams in consideration non conference and lots of top 25 wins in conference) 16- Creighton 9-Kansas 8- Wisconsin 2- Florida (Best record of teams in consideration for a top seed) 15- Wichita State 10- Washington 7- Kentucky 3- Stanford (Best chance to run with the fewest losses against what looks to be a steady top heavy rpi top 25 gamut of Washington, Utah, Oregon, UCLA, USC by season end) 14- Oregon 11- BYU 6- Texas 4- Nebraska (the record against UCLA helps, but it's just not quality like against Stanford or against Texas or Florida....losses to UNI and to a smaller extent Oregon come into play here) 13- Michigan State 12- Utah 5- Minnesota I have my questions about Wichita State getting a seed - I am now going to look more into their RPI Future probabilities. I am thinking a 5th PAC team over Wichita State - but like you said, this is early and there is a LOT of VB left.
I am most interested in the top 4 seeds - as in my mind this is down to just 7 possibilities. I like your thinking on this (along with the entire post). The more I look at this - I am not liking Texas chances of hosting. I think they will need some help to get there. I think Nebraska has some real problems unless they run the table. Florida/Kentucky is another interesting situation where H2H, RPI, T25 wins and Conference championship are pointing in different directions - or could both host? Minnesota - everyone seems to be writing them off, but they have the strong RPI. Wisconsin finished 3rd in the B1G last year and hosted because of the strong RPI - but they were not seeded ahead of Nebraska or Minnesota. Which will be more valuable - Nebraska's conference standing and H2H, or Minnesota's RPI?
Wichita would need an RPI of around 12 to get a seed and it may be dodgy even then. That lone H2H against Creighton won't hold up. |
|
|
|
Post by ay2013 on Oct 17, 2017 15:10:26 GMT -5
re seeding, the early look for the top 4 is interesting. the nitty gritty favors some teams and not others, depending on the category. futures says that Florida loses two more matches....meh, I guess, but likely just 1, if that, to Kentucky. The PROBLEM with Florida's resume is the lack of top 25 wins. They currently sit at just 2 top 25 wins, with probably only one other chance get one (at Kentucky). Meanwhile the top Big 10 and Pac-12 teams have far more and have the opportunity to pick up more. BUT, is the committee going to punish Florida for something they cannot control which is the strength of the SEC? Florida has arguably the best two wins against Texas and Nebraska, which really helps the in the "record against teams also in consideration" category. But, it was the first week of the season, at home. Penn State can hold two wins over Stanford over the committee's head, but it's still just 1 team rather than Florida's two wins against two teams in consideration for top seeds. Minnesota has the win against Texas. Texas doesn't have a win against anyone OOC in the top seed conversation and neither does Kentucky or Stanford. Stanford's claim to a top seed will be it's dominance within conference. It didn't work out well for Washington last year, but the Pac-12 DOES have more top 25 rpi teams this year. I think it's going to really come down to the committee balancing the sheer number of top 25 wins versus OOC wins against teams also in consideration. and perhaps the subjective regional rankings/polls plays a bigger role this year. I think Wisconsin is in a bit of a bind as they have no good OOC wins, despite having a really strong non-conference RPI. My early crystal ball would probably say..... My early seeds/regionals would be 1- Penn State (Good mixture of a record against other teams in consideration non conference and lots of top 25 wins in conference) 16- Creighton 9-Kansas 8- Wisconsin 2- Florida (Best record of teams in consideration for a top seed) 15- Wichita State 10- Washington 7- Kentucky 3- Stanford (Best chance to run with the fewest losses against what looks to be a steady top heavy rpi top 25 gamut of Washington, Utah, Oregon, UCLA, USC by season end) 14- Oregon 11- BYU 6- Texas 4- Nebraska (the record against UCLA helps, but it's just not quality like against Stanford or against Texas or Florida....losses to UNI and to a smaller extent Oregon come into play here) 13- Michigan State 12- Utah 5- Minnesota I have my questions about Wichita State getting a seed - I am now going to look more into their RPI Future probabilities. I am thinking a 5th PAC team over Wichita State - but like you said, this is early and there is a LOT of VB left.
I am most interested in the top 4 seeds - as in my mind this is down to just 7 possibilities. I like your thinking on this (along with the entire post). The more I look at this - I am not liking Texas chances of hosting. I think they will need some help to get there. I think Nebraska has some real problems unless they run the table. Florida/Kentucky is another interesting situation where H2H, RPI, T25 wins and Conference championship are pointing in different directions - or could both host? Minnesota - everyone seems to be writing them off, but they have the strong RPI. Wisconsin finished 3rd in the B1G last year and hosted because of the strong RPI - but they were not seeded ahead of Nebraska or Minnesota. Which will be more valuable - Nebraska's conference standing and H2H, or Minnesota's RPI?
I'm not writing off Minny's chances, I think the home match against Penn State is going to be big for them come resume time. I'm just not sold on Texas being in the strong top 4 category, which, IMO, perhaps devalues that resume line for Minnesota. I guess.... The team with the farthest to fall from my prediction is Stanford. IMO they need to almost run the table in the Pac-12 to be a top 4 seed as they have nothing in the preseason to hang their hat on. I just think it's a bit more likely that Stanford does it in the Pac-12 than the Big 10 teams to do it because Washington doesn't look like they want to win anything this year, Oregon is hobbled, USC and UCLA are a year away, and they play Utah at home....Stanford, IMO, has the best chance to end up with the most significant wins in the country, or at least #2....that's gotta count for a lot. |
|
|
|
Post by southie on Oct 17, 2017 15:12:19 GMT -5
Great discussion.
Last season, the committee seemed to put more weight on RPI than conference championships; that was the first time they have done that, if my memory is correct. So, Stanford and Texas were the beneficiaries above Washington and Kansas, respectively. Who's to say this year's committee will do the same thing? I actually do; I think a precedent was set and they will follow it again this year. While a conference championship is great, if you don't play a strong non-conference schedule, then you should not be rewarded over teams who did.
I agree that only 7 teams are in position to make a case for a Top 4 national seed at the moment. It will come down to who wins out, and who suffers a loss or two down the stretch.
Not sure of the breakdown the committee uses: wins against Top 5 RPI ,Top 10 RPI, Top 15, Top 25 RPI, Top 50 RPI, etc. Different schools can make different arguments depending on the metric.
|
|
|
|
Post by ay2013 on Oct 17, 2017 15:14:30 GMT -5
Great discussion. Last season, the committee seemed to put more weight on RPI than conference championships; that was the first time they have done that, if my memory is correct. So, Stanford and Texas were the beneficiaries above Washington and Kansas, respectively. Who's to say this year's committee will do the same thing? I actually do; I think a precedent was set and they will follow it again this year. While a conference championship is great, if you don't play a strong non-conference schedule, then you should not be rewarded over teams who did. I agree that only 7 teams are in position to make a case for a Top 4 national seed at the moment. It will come down to who wins out, and who suffers a loss or two down the stretch. Not sure of the breakdown the committee uses: wins against Top 5 RPI ,Top 10 RPI, Top 15, Top 25 RPI, Top 50 RPI, etc. Different schools can make different arguments depending on the metric. I think we'd have to get more of the historic tournament resume data to make that determination. It may just be that the conference champion usually always had the better rpi. |
|
|
|
Post by firedup on Oct 17, 2017 15:19:48 GMT -5
In order to be considered the best setter doesn't require playing head to head, imo. And Hentz plays for Stanford. Also, not a setter. No one mentioned Hentz. Don't be sophomoric. You said "hence" in your prior post. I used a play on words. Sorry the humor was missed. |
|
|
|
Post by dman on Oct 17, 2017 15:23:03 GMT -5
Firedup, if Florida is running in system I would put them up with anyone in the country! Plenty of time for them to clean up the passing and kick into a higher gear. Your setter has been in a small funk with doubles and net calls; she will get that fixed quick enough. This loss could be a good thing for them. The things that I have noticed from them over the past two weeks is they have the appearance of "coasting" thru games. Playing sloppy but able to close when they had to. You get into too many bad habits playing this way and when the competition gets stiff you get burned; aka Kentucky. Will be interesting to see if this loss will light a fire and see them dominate some of their next matches. The point is that every good team could beat every other good team if they were "in-system." When better teams meet at least 30% of the match is played out of system. Why? Because the serving is tougher and the setters are forced to dig more attacks, among many other things. This is not going to change no matter who Florida or anyone else plays in the NCAA tournament. No argument from me, Babar. I was just pointing out my observations of the past two weeks of watching them play. I picked Kentucky to win the conference at the beginning of the season; still see that playing out. |
|
