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Post by ay2013 on Oct 30, 2017 16:41:52 GMT -5
. . . a Southern California host can fill their sub regional with west coast teams. . . Other than Cal Poly and San Diego, what non-PAC-12 teams from the west coast do you see filling out a sub-regional field at either USC or UCLA? The only possibilities I see are Bakersfield if they win the WAC bid and Sacramento State if they win the Big Sky bid. There won't be nearly enough west coast teams to fill probable sub-regional fields at USC/UCLA, Stanford, Oregon and Washington, so quite a few fly-in teams will be needed for those locations.Yes, like Michigan. I think they will need a weaker fly in for the so-cal subregional, and if both Cal Poly AND San Diego end up in USC's sub regional, I'd bet my bottom dollar that Michigan will NOT be there too. |
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Post by sisyphus on Oct 30, 2017 16:44:16 GMT -5
. . . a Southern California host can fill their sub regional with west coast teams. . . Other than Cal Poly and San Diego, what non-PAC-12 teams from the west coast do you see filling out a sub-regional field at either USC or UCLA? The only possibilities I see are Bakersfield if they win the WAC bid and Sacramento State if they win the Big Sky bid. There won't be nearly enough west coast teams to fill probable sub-regional fields at USC/UCLA, Stanford, Oregon and Washington, so quite a few fly-in teams will be needed for those locations. Denver has been sent to Washington (2015) and Stanford (2016). I'd say they are a decent pick. Not exactly "West Coast" but the committee hasn't seemed to think that they are in the Midwest either. They can't drive to anyone (unless Colorado somehow gets to host so that the committee can save money by sending Denver and CSU to Boulder. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 30, 2017 17:10:58 GMT -5
There are just going to be a lot more flights than usual this year. We're looking at 5 PAC-12 hosts, but only 1-2 at larges [edit: non-PAC] total from West of the Rockies, and only the Big Sky champion likely to be drivable to a host site. Add to that a clump of Upper Midwest hosts (Creighton/Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa St./Wisconsin/Minnesota - maybe even a Wichita if one of those falters) who will overload their region (it has to make bubble teams like Iowa/Mizzou/UNI/MoSt feel pretty good about their chances) and there are just going to be a lot of flights no matter what. No ACC team in seed contention, along with only two "Eastern Big 10" teams (MSU/PSU) in hosting range really throwing off the geographic balance.
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Post by tomclen on Oct 30, 2017 17:28:01 GMT -5
So, what are the odds that the three teams sent to State College for round 1/2 are AMERICAN YALE KENNESAW ST. Asking for a friend.  |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 30, 2017 17:46:13 GMT -5
Pitt is basically a lock to go to Penn St. I think they'll play VCU there.
I see Louisville to Michigan St. (maaayybe Kentucky....)
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Post by volleyg on Oct 30, 2017 18:30:12 GMT -5
The numbers don't match since the update: There are 33 teams listed for 32 spots (and Maryland is listed IN, left off B1G list by name but would be 9th there) (6) ACC - Louisville, North Carolina State, Florida State, Miami-FL, Notre Dame, North Carolina (1) Big East - Marquette (9) Big 10 - Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan (3) Big 12 - Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor (1) MVC - Northern Iowa (4) SEC - Florida, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas (8) PAC-12 - Oregon, Utah, Washington, USC, UCLA, Colorado, Oregon State, Washington State (1) WCC - San Diego Last 4 IN: North Carolina, Maryland, Washington State, Arkansas First 4 OUT: Missouri, Iowa, Hawaii, Maryland Next 4 OUT: Alabama, West Virginia, Tennessee, Ole Miss ^This is also assuming that Texas A&M is ineligible for the tournament Don't know about you, but I think Stanford has a chance of getting in... What about Pitt? 6 teams in the ACC should include PITT and UNC is OUT. Where would NCST & UM be slated to play? Any guesses |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 30, 2017 18:39:09 GMT -5
Pitt is basically a lock to go to Penn St. I think they'll play VCU there. I see Louisville to Michigan St. (maaayybe Kentucky....) I think it will have to be Louisville to Michigan State, Pittsburgh to Penn State, and Notre Dame to Wisconsin - I don't see another way w/o increasing the flights or making Penn State sub real easy. |
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Post by Cruz'n on Oct 30, 2017 20:07:56 GMT -5
Pitt is basically a lock to go to Penn St. I think they'll play VCU there. I see Louisville to Michigan St. (maaayybe Kentucky....) I think it will have to be Louisville to Michigan State, Pittsburgh to Penn State, and Notre Dame to Wisconsin - I don't see another way w/o increasing the flights or making Penn State sub real easy. When has making Penn State sub too easy been a factor? |
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Post by hammer on Oct 30, 2017 20:19:15 GMT -5
So, what are the odds that the three teams sent to State College for round 1/2 are AMERICAN YALE KENNESAW ST. Asking for a friend. The question is, does RR go immediately to the front of the line when he enters The Creamery? I'd say, looking at the picture, the answer is yes. |
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Post by Fight On! on Oct 30, 2017 21:09:28 GMT -5
Don't know about you, but I think Stanford has a chance of getting in... What about Pitt? 6 teams in the ACC should include PITT and UNC is OUT. Where would NCST & UM be slated to play? Any guesses Miami can drive to UF. NCST can’t drive to any seed, right? So out west? |
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Post by southie on Oct 30, 2017 22:33:44 GMT -5
What about Pitt? 6 teams in the ACC should include PITT and UNC is OUT. Where would NCST & UM be slated to play? Any guesses Miami can drive to UF. NCST can’t drive to any seed, right? So out west? NC State did get sent to Austin a few years ago. |
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Post by FreeBall on Oct 30, 2017 23:18:23 GMT -5
There are just going to be a lot more flights than usual this year. We're looking at 5 PAC-12 hosts, but only 1-2 at larges [edit: non-PAC] total from West of the Rockies, and only the Big Sky champion likely to be drivable to a host site. Add to that a clump of Upper Midwest hosts (Creighton/Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa St./Wisconsin/Minnesota - maybe even a Wichita if one of those falters) who will overload their region (it has to make bubble teams like Iowa/Mizzou/UNI/MoSt feel pretty good about their chances) and there are just going to be a lot of flights no matter what. No ACC team in seed contention, along with only two "Eastern Big 10" teams (MSU/PSU) in hosting range really throwing off the geographic balance. Earlier today I looked at the Top 55 in the 10/30 RPI Futures to see which potential at-large bid teams are within 400 miles of a likely host. I think you are right that there will be more flights this year. This is due to bunching of the potential host sites, as well as the fact that many teams are either 400+ miles from any of those sites, or the only sites within 400 miles are hosted by teams in the same conference as the non-seeded team. Here are the teams that will have to fly somewhere (these are in the order of the teams as shown in the 10/30 RPI Futures list): 1. Colorado 2. UCLA 3. Baylor 4. Oregon State 5. Colorado State 6. Auburn 7. North Carolina State 8. LSU 9. Maryland 10. Washington State 11. Hawaii 12. Alabama (This list includes potential at-large bid teams and also assumes that there are no major surprises in the awarding of the 16 seeds.) One additional note: As is always the case, there will also be teams in the pool of AQ's that have to fly. The majority of the AQ teams are located in the eastern part of the country and the only potential seeds in the east are Penn State, Kentucky, Florida and Michigan State. This is likely to increase the number of AQ teams needing to fly this year. In the past 2-3 years the total number of teams traveling 400+ miles in the bracket has generally been in the range of 20-25. I wouldn't be surprised if the number this year is in the 25-30 range. |
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Post by volleyca on Oct 31, 2017 1:07:10 GMT -5
I assume PSU will be a for sure lock in for a regional bc they have one of the best non-conference wins (Stanford x2), besides Florida. I don’t think they’ll drop another match and if they do it’ll it’ll likely be vs Minnesota. That being said I predict PSU will be #1 seed. As for the rest I’m unsure. I think Minnesota will host another regional with their win vs Texas and Wisconsin. Will they be ranked #2 post season again though? Unless Texas drops matches in Big 12 play I think they’ll host again but if they I think they might be on the bubble. Onto the schools I believe are on the bubble of a top 4 team: Florida, Stanford, and Kentucky. Florida probably has one of the best non co defense wins with Texas and Nebraska, but their loss to Kentucky does hurt them. Kentucky has solid wins over Utah and SC, but their win vs Florida @ home gives them an advantage. The question I’m wondering is: does a Kentucky win in both match ups vs Florida earn Kentucky a higher seed come December, assuming they also stay undefeated in SEC play. Lastly is Stanford. They have a WiFi officiant win over a rising Illinois team and have so far been perfect in PAC 12 play and will likely win the conference. Overall the PAC 12 has a higher number of tough opponents compared to the SEC, ACC, and Big 12. I think it is safe to say that’s stanford will win the PAC. That being said my overarching question is: if Stanford remains undefeated in PAC 12 play, does that earn them a top 4 seed. Since I truly only envision Stanford losing to Washington at this point, will a Stanford team that’s not undefeated in the PAC 12, but still wins it earn a top 4 seed?
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 31, 2017 1:53:58 GMT -5
updated for Halloween! Bubble profiles, predicted seeds to come next week!
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 31, 2017 5:28:34 GMT -5
updated for Halloween! Bubble profiles, predicted seeds to come next week! Did you wait until after midnight just so you could say "updated for Halloween"? |
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