RPI Futures -Week 10 (10/30/17)

[dd2000]

Is an RPI of 45 right where the cut off is historically? I understand that it depends on auto qualifiers and how conference tournaments shake out, but what is the historical cut off??

[bluepenquin]

Nov 5, 2017 19:16:03 GMT -5 jaypak said:

Speaking of the Top 25, per figstats Pitt is sitting at #26 RPI and Purdue at #27. Creighton has a win over Pitt and a loss to Purdue. What are the chances one or both of these teams finish in the Top 25, and what would be the implications for Creighton's RPI? Thanks in advance.

In terms of RPI - Purdue's standing in the top 25 will have no impact, while Pittsburgh would.  Wins against #26-50 is worth .0014 in bonus - and wins against #1-25 is worth .0028.  So the difference between Pittsburgh being #25 and #26 is a net .0014.

On average - .0014 is worth about 1 spot for teams in the Creighton RPI range.  It could be worth 2 or 3 spots or it could be worth no change in the ranking - obviously depends on how close the teams are around them.

Also - it is top 25 and top 50 in unadjusted RPI - where Purdue sits at #25 and Pittsburgh at #26.  If those two teams were switched - Creighton would move ahead of Michigan State at Figstats.

When I looked at this a couple weeks ago - Creighton would most likely end up in the ~ 10-13 range if they were to win the remaining matches including the conference tournament.  To lose to Marquette in the conference tournament would probably leave Creighton in the 14-17 range.  Per Pablo - Creighton has a 52% chance of winning the Big East tournament with Marquette at 38%.

[jaypak]

Thank you for explaining. I knew that there was a bonus for wins in certain categories, but I didn't know about defeats. Now I've learned that it does not matter as much where a team is that you lost to, compared to where a team is that you beat. And thanks for the reminder about using the unadjusted RPI for bonuses.

One follow-up question. Do you know if the Pablo chances stated above take into account the location of the conference tournament?

[bluepenquin]

Nov 5, 2017 21:40:49 GMT -5 jaypak said:

Thank you for explaining. I knew that there was a bonus for wins in certain categories, but I didn't know about defeats. Now I've learned that it does not matter as much where a team is that you lost to, compared to where a team is that you beat. And thanks for the reminder about using the unadjusted RPI for bonuses.

One follow-up question. Do you know if the Pablo chances stated above take into account the location of the conference tournament?

Yes.  Also keep in mind that Pablo isn't as big on Creighton as many on this board.

Creighton would be at 53% chance of winning at Marquette.  

[jaypak]

Yes, quite a difference from this time last season when they were much higher in Pablo than RPI.

[trojansc]

Questions I have for bluepenquin

I know your futures do not account for conference tournaments, but is there any way you could answer these questions?

Say VCU wins out but loses conference championship to Dayton. What would their RPI be?

I have the same question for:

North Texas beats WKU, but loses conference championship to WKU.
College of Charleston wins out, loses conference championship.

If High Point wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?
If Dayton wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?

How likely is it that Baylor stays top 25 for bonus purposes?

Thanks in advance. You're amazing.

[jayj79]

I'd imagine that trying to factor in possible conference tournament results is quite complicated, as you don't know who will be playing who in the tournament.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 6, 2017 1:38:37 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Questions I have for bluepenquin

I know your futures do not account for conference tournaments, but is there any way you could answer these questions?

Say VCU wins out but loses conference championship to Dayton. What would their RPI be?

I have the same question for:

North Texas beats WKU, but loses conference championship to WKU.
College of Charleston wins out, loses conference championship.

If High Point wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?
If Dayton wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?

How likely is it that Baylor stays top 25 for bonus purposes?

Thanks in advance. You're amazing.

VCU wins out, but loses to Dayton in the A-10 championship, they would finish with ~ #36 RPI.  If they win the championship, it would be ~ #31.  Dayton wins out, but loses to VCU in the championship, they would be ~ #49.  If they win, they would be ~ #40.  I took the RKPI approach - Pablo favorite wins each match in the conference.  Also, at this point, Dayton has a 49% chance of winning the A-10 conference championship compared to 46% for VCU.

North Texas beats WKU, but loses in the championship, then ~ #38.  If they lose both times, then ~ #47.  Western Kentucky has something like a 79% chance of winning the conference tournament.

College of Charleston wins out, but loses conference tournament they would end up ~ #46.

Baylor is pretty likely to finish in the top 25 unadjusted or adjusted.  They would need to win 2 of their final 4 matches.  However, they do play @ Kansas and at home against Texas.  Then have @ West Virginia and K-State - I think they probably will win at least 2 of them.

Ran out of time on the High Point question.

[nakedcrayon]

Didn't read some of the postings but TAMU will be ineligible for the post season and could with a decent finish be in the mid 40s so that is a team that won't take away any spot from a deserving team

I wish it was different but when you play a ton of teams in the top ten you gotta win one or two They are 3-21 in sets against top ten teams if you include Wisconsin at the time and still have Florida so a 3-24 is expected. Not good enough even with injuries and freshman with significant playing time

[trojansc]

Nov 6, 2017 9:10:20 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 6, 2017 1:38:37 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Questions I have for bluepenquin

I know your futures do not account for conference tournaments, but is there any way you could answer these questions?

Say VCU wins out but loses conference championship to Dayton. What would their RPI be?

I have the same question for:

North Texas beats WKU, but loses conference championship to WKU.
College of Charleston wins out, loses conference championship.

If High Point wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?
If Dayton wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?

How likely is it that Baylor stays top 25 for bonus purposes?

Thanks in advance. You're amazing.

VCU wins out, but loses to Dayton in the A-10 championship, they would finish with ~ #36 RPI.  If they win the championship, it would be ~ #31.  Dayton wins out, but loses to VCU in the championship, they would be ~ #49.  If they win, they would be ~ #40.  I took the RKPI approach - Pablo favorite wins each match in the conference.  Also, at this point, Dayton has a 49% chance of winning the A-10 conference championship compared to 46% for VCU.

North Texas beats WKU, but loses in the championship, then ~ #38.  If they lose both times, then ~ #47.  Western Kentucky has something like a 79% chance of winning the conference tournament.

College of Charleston wins out, but loses conference tournament they would end up ~ #46.

Baylor is pretty likely to finish in the top 25 unadjusted or adjusted.  They would need to win 2 of their final 4 matches.  However, they do play @ Kansas and at home against Texas.  Then have @ West Virginia and K-State - I think they probably will win at least 2 of them.

Ran out of time on the High Point question.

Thank you so much!!

This makes me think that VCU has a pretty solid at-large chance so long as High Point finishes top 50.

It appears to me that High Point is for sure top 50 if they win out.

North Texas could have a serious case with a 38 RPI. I get the SOS is horrible but would the bubble teams below them really have more/better wins that make them able to jump? The bubble is weak.

But all of that is weighing on the fact that Norfh Texas can beat Western Kentucky. The match is in Denton, TX. Thursday, Nov 9th at 7:00pm EST.

College of Charleston's path to getting in via an at-large would have to include losing to Towson/James Madison and either of those 2 finishing top 50 and I'm not sure if that is mathematically possible

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 6, 2017 9:10:20 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 6, 2017 1:38:37 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Questions I have for bluepenquin

I know your futures do not account for conference tournaments, but is there any way you could answer these questions?

Say VCU wins out but loses conference championship to Dayton. What would their RPI be?

I have the same question for:

North Texas beats WKU, but loses conference championship to WKU.
College of Charleston wins out, loses conference championship.

If High Point wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?
If Dayton wins out, are they pretty much guaranteed a top 50 RPI?

How likely is it that Baylor stays top 25 for bonus purposes?

Thanks in advance. You're amazing.

VCU wins out, but loses to Dayton in the A-10 championship, they would finish with ~ #36 RPI.  If they win the championship, it would be ~ #31.  Dayton wins out, but loses to VCU in the championship, they would be ~ #49.  If they win, they would be ~ #40.  I took the RKPI approach - Pablo favorite wins each match in the conference.  Also, at this point, Dayton has a 49% chance of winning the A-10 conference championship compared to 46% for VCU.

North Texas beats WKU, but loses in the championship, then ~ #38.  If they lose both times, then ~ #47.  Western Kentucky has something like a 79% chance of winning the conference tournament.

College of Charleston wins out, but loses conference tournament they would end up ~ #46.

Baylor is pretty likely to finish in the top 25 unadjusted or adjusted.  They would need to win 2 of their final 4 matches.  However, they do play @ Kansas and at home against Texas.  Then have @ West Virginia and K-State - I think they probably will win at least 2 of them.

Ran out of time on the High Point question.

#38 is much more RPI upside than I expected from North Texas. That may make it a very difficult decision (plus, Austin subregional needs at-larges)... I may have to flip on my UNT prediction if their RPI is high 30s/low 40s.

If VCU loses to Dayton in the A-10 tournament, their profile would be so thin, but a 36 RPI would get them in anyways.

I have to say, this would all be bad news for the SEC/ACC teams. Particularly if Dayton/High Point get into the Top 50. Even if they don't make the tourney, they're gonna kill someone's nitty gritty by knocking an A&M/UNC-type out of the Top 50.