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Post by trianglevolleyball on Oct 14, 2018 14:42:26 GMT -5
Syracuse drops a tough 5-setter at home to FSU as future ACC Freshman of the Year Shemanova gets 30 kills!!! Great games for Knuth and Caffrey on the other side. Syracuse is a tourney quality team, so we'll see how the math works out.
Pitt and Louisville both had troublesome matches this week but stay undefeated
Going into the fifth week, the top 4 are all solid bets for the tourney: Pitt 8-0 L'Ville 8-0 FSU 7-1 Syracuse 6-2 (Syracuse would be around 40 in the RPI if they take four more losses, and they only have one match left against the contenders @l'Ville. @notre Dame and @nc State are their other two difficult matches)
Duke at 3-5 is the next highest RPI team but just took a home loss to Georgia Tech. Miami at 6-2 and Notre Dame at 5-3 are the other two potential tourney teams but both lack big wins, so they would need to knock off some of the top 4 and go on a run.
Looking like the ACC will have 4 bids and one seed. Most likely destinations are Louisville to Kentucky, FSU to either UF or UCF, and Syracuse to Penn State.
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Post by chancelucky on Oct 15, 2018 4:37:53 GMT -5
I'm not sure about FSU. The win over Syracuse clearly helped, but I don't think it's a clear path to a bid. I'm noticing that some of the mid majors don't have obvious second teams for bids, so maybe the ACC does get its usual 4 or 5. Looking at the ACC alone, though, I've wondered if it might be just 3 this year.
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Oct 15, 2018 7:46:33 GMT -5
I'm not sure about FSU. The win over Syracuse clearly helped, but I don't think it's a clear path to a bid. I'm noticing that some of the mid majors don't have obvious second teams for bids, so maybe the ACC does get its usual 4 or 5. Looking at the ACC alone, though, I've wondered if it might be just 3 this year. They’re certainly weak on big wins but pretty strong on RPI. Projected to finish about 32 and the cutoff line is 49, so they can probably take 5 more losses and be fine. If they do lose the Louisville and Pitt matches, their next toughest four are a pair against Notre Dame, vs Miami and @ NC State.
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Oct 15, 2018 7:48:22 GMT -5
I'm not sure about FSU. The win over Syracuse clearly helped, but I don't think it's a clear path to a bid. I'm noticing that some of the mid majors don't have obvious second teams for bids, so maybe the ACC does get its usual 4 or 5. Looking at the ACC alone, though, I've wondered if it might be just 3 this year. Also just in general the profiles of bubble teams are pretty weak, doesn’t seem like the PAC or Big 10 will get more than 15 bids between them, WCC has around three, Big 12 not with much more.
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Post by notwvb on Oct 20, 2018 12:04:08 GMT -5
Clemson sweeps Miami on the road last evening. Coach Franklin is doing fantastic work, losing star OH at start of the season and the Tigers could easily be 5-4 in conference with tough losses in 5 to each of Louisville, GT and WF. Expect Clemson under Franklin to continue to improve each year. Very happy for her, looks like she's really enjoying the head coach role.
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Post by shawty on Nov 4, 2018 16:58:08 GMT -5
A lot of the ACC beating up on each other this weekend. NC State beats Duke. FSU beats Louisville. Notre Dame sweeps Miami. What does this do to the post season hopes for Duke (now 7th in ACC) and ND (now 5th in the ACC), both on or near the bubble.
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Post by chancelucky on Nov 12, 2018 13:03:41 GMT -5
The ACC NCAA picture is coming into focus I'd say it's 4 teams with a very outside shot at 5.
1. Pitt will likely get a seed 2. Florida State went from probable to more or less certain. It's been a while since FSU won the conference, but they've stayed in the upper realms of the standings throughout. 3. Louisville 4. Syracuse should be in unless they implode the last two weeks of the season
Miami basically played its way off the bubble. Something seems to be wrong, beyond just not hitting very well for a couple matches. Had Duke beaten Pitt a second time, they would have been in pretty good position, despite the loss to NC state. In the meantime, Duke's rpi is still quite good #39. Notre Dame might have a shot if they beat Louisville and Duke, but their best win so far is Syracuse.
The Duke-Notre Dame match might give the winner a shot at a bid, though it helps Duke more than it would Notre Dame.
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Post by leftyopp on Nov 12, 2018 13:35:20 GMT -5
The AVCA Polls have:
#10 - Pitt #27 - Louisville #34 - Fl. State
RPI Rankings have:
#9 - Pitt #28 - Fl. State #31 - Syracuse #36 - Louisville #39 - Duke #62 - ND #81 - Miami #92 - NC State #96 - GT #101 - Clemson #143 - VT #165 - UNC #187 - BC #208 - Wake #220 - Virginia
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Nov 12, 2018 13:46:33 GMT -5
The ACC NCAA picture is coming into focus I'd say it's 4 teams with a very outside shot at 5. 1. Pitt will likely get a seed 2. Florida State went from probable to more or less certain. It's been a while since FSU won the conference, but they've stayed in the upper realms of the standings throughout. 3. Louisville 4. Syracuse should be in unless they implode the last two weeks of the season Miami basically played its way off the bubble. Something seems to be wrong, beyond just not hitting very well for a couple matches. Had Duke beaten Pitt a second time, they would have been in pretty good position, despite the loss to NC state. In the meantime, Duke's rpi is still quite good #39. Notre Dame might have a shot if they beat Louisville and Duke, but their best win so far is Syracuse. The Duke-Notre Dame match might give the winner a shot at a bid, though it helps Duke more than it would Notre Dame. Very outside shot??? No lol. Duke is still in pretty comfortable position for the tournament, playing 4 matches against teams without a loss (except against you) can do wonders for your RPI. - If Duke wins 2 of their last three home games (UNC, Miami, ND), then they'll have a top 40 RPI. Absolutely no way they get passed over with that, especially since they have the best win of any bubble team.
- If Duke wins 1 of their last three, they'll probably have an RPI around 45 on the favorable side of the bubble. Still think they'd be about the last squad in, but it would look ugly to have lost both games against Miami and split with Duke.
- If they win 0, they're tourney hopes are gone
I don't see Duke falling at home to UNC, and I really can't see them losing to both Miami and Notre Dame given those teams current state. Miami just lost to UNC and Notre Dame is without their kill leader. The first option is clearly the most likely. Notre Dame shot itself in the foot this past weekend and without Yeadon I don't see them winning out, though a pair of wins vs Louisville and at Duke would put them squarely on the bubble and at 2 top 50 wins to their record. But yeah, I don't see that happening, they do control their destiny IMO tho.
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Post by chancelucky on Nov 12, 2018 13:55:04 GMT -5
That's fair enough and thanks for the correction.
I'm not sure why losing to good teams helps a team's RPI though. IT's clear that the win against Pitt definitely helped as would the win against Cincinnati. I also get that losing to a good team doesn't hurt nearly as much as losing to a bad team.
My understanding of RPI was that it doesn't treat losses as helpful and that a 5 set loss isn't different from a 3 set loss in their calculations.
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Nov 12, 2018 14:21:21 GMT -5
That's fair enough and thanks for the correction. I'm not sure why losing to good teams helps a team's RPI though. IT's clear that the win against Pitt definitely helped as would the win against Cincinnati. I also get that losing to a good team doesn't hurt nearly as much as losing to a bad team. My understanding of RPI was that it doesn't treat losses as helpful and that a 5 set loss isn't different from a 3 set loss in their calculations. Duke's SOS is 25, far higher than Louisville and Syracuse who are just narrowly ahead of them in RPI but with far fewer losses. BYU, Cincy, ETSU were all great scheduling moves this year. Duke also got lucky and didn't have to play some of the RPI drags in the conference twice. Your Opponent win% factor is what gets boosted when you lose against teams with stellar records. It's also not necessarily how good the team you play is but what their win percentage looks like. USC and BYU have similar RPI numbers, for example, but a beatdown loss to BYU helps you more than a 5-set loss to USC, because BYU's win percentage is like 0.3 higher.
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Nov 18, 2018 13:26:22 GMT -5
Well I may have to eat my words. Embarrassing 5 set loss for Duke at home against UNC. They might just be capable of playing themselves out of the tourney.
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Post by chancelucky on Nov 18, 2018 16:27:23 GMT -5
Miami nearly threw a giant wrinkle into the picture, but Pitt survived in 5. Duke vs. Notre Dame may determine who keeps playing and who claims the 5th bid from the ACC.
I suspect Duke's play yesterday was yet another example of the strange things that happen in rivalry matches. It's sort of amazing that they got to 5 with 37 hitting errors, 9 service errors, and 3 bhe (more or less 2 full sets on unforced errors).
Miami appeared to snap out of their slump.
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Post by shawty on Nov 18, 2018 16:38:06 GMT -5
Well I may have to eat my words. Embarrassing 5 set loss for Duke at home against UNC. They might just be capable of playing themselves out of the tourney. Notre Dame also has the Louisville win. So that's 2 top 50 wins.
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Post by browniecritic on Nov 18, 2018 18:54:53 GMT -5
Miami nearly threw a giant wrinkle into the picture, but Pitt survived in 5. Duke vs. Notre Dame may determine who keeps playing and who claims the 5th bid from the ACC. I suspect Duke's play yesterday was yet another example of the strange things that happen in rivalry matches. It's sort of amazing that they got to 5 with 37 hitting errors, 9 service errors, and 3 bhe (more or less 2 full sets on unforced errors). Miami appeared to snap out of their slump. I can’t believe they had 37 hitting errrors?!! I don’t understand how that happens...I don’t think I’ve EVER seen that
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