bluepenquin
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4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Jul 31, 2019 22:22:46 GMT -5
Yes - it did last year. but there will be some that will fairly quickly fall out of the T50. Thanks! Are you saying that's a general event (some will quickly fall from T50), or do you happen to know offhand already which teams will? Care to tell me WHO, so I can omit them from my list NOW? General based on what happened last year: Oregon State, Wichita State and sort of Western Kentucky. As for this year - I would suggest that Washington State and Illinois State are good candidates to not make the T50 this year. And if you move just a bit past 32, I would include East Tennessee State and Syracuse
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Post by TCMullet on Jul 31, 2019 22:33:44 GMT -5
Yeah, I can see that. I remember ETSU playing some good ball, and Syr. But not enough to stay around. I actually want to work with a T50 list, doing a T32 as a starting point, but if I can drop some out in advance, that saves work for me. If you want to exclude others even more than just a bit past 32, I'll eagerly note it (realizing that ultimately things can change).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 20:50:01 GMT -5
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 12, 2019 10:53:38 GMT -5
RPI Futures: I am in the tedious and boring phase of the set-up. Probably going to be next Sunday for completion - I want it completed before sending out. Just looking at the results right now - very strong correlation between RPI Rank and Pablo season ending rank. I think there is less 'bad' scheduling among the top teams and less opportunity to 'game' the system. As the season progresses, close match wins and losses are becoming the biggest factor in top teams RPI vs. Pablo. This also relates to how conferences do OOC.
Black Ink: Haven't touched for a couple weeks and will not continue until RPI Futures is up and running. I have tweaked the points to devalue Under Armour more than previously.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 12, 2019 14:36:59 GMT -5
RPI Futures: I am in the tedious and boring phase of the set-up. Probably going to be next Sunday for completion - I want it completed before sending out. Just looking at the results right now - very strong correlation between RPI Rank and Pablo season ending rank. I think there is less 'bad' scheduling among the top teams and less opportunity to 'game' the system. As the season progresses, close match wins and losses are becoming the biggest factor in top teams RPI vs. Pablo. This also relates to how conferences do OOC. Black Ink: Haven't touched for a couple weeks and will not continue until RPI Futures is up and running. I have tweaked the points to devalue Under Armour more than previously. I'm not surprised. Even the last hold-outs have moved to RPI favorable scheduling - the switch to Top 4 seed hosts has really galvanized the top teams, and "interesting" RPI years (like 2010 for the PAC, 2014 for the B1G, and whichever-year-the-MAC got like 3/4 bids for the midmajors) have forced everyone to get with the program.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
|
Post by bluepenquin on Aug 12, 2019 14:57:40 GMT -5
RPI Futures: I am in the tedious and boring phase of the set-up. Probably going to be next Sunday for completion - I want it completed before sending out. Just looking at the results right now - very strong correlation between RPI Rank and Pablo season ending rank. I think there is less 'bad' scheduling among the top teams and less opportunity to 'game' the system. As the season progresses, close match wins and losses are becoming the biggest factor in top teams RPI vs. Pablo. This also relates to how conferences do OOC. Black Ink: Haven't touched for a couple weeks and will not continue until RPI Futures is up and running. I have tweaked the points to devalue Under Armour more than previously. I'm not surprised. Even the last hold-outs have moved to RPI favorable scheduling - the switch to Top 4 seed hosts has really galvanized the top teams, and "interesting" RPI years (like 2010 for the PAC, 2014 for the B1G, and whichever-year-the-MAC got like 3/4 bids for the midmajors) have forced everyone to get with the program. There is still real danger for middle of the pack B1G and PAC teams in a bad OOC record year. Those teams rely on great OOC records of their conference mates to help them withstand ~ .500 conference record. Also, it is interesting to see what happens to the Big 12 and SEC if the middle and bottom of the conference keeps getting better. There is no longer a safe passage to a cushy RPI like there used to be. Doesn't appear that the West Coast Conference is getting hurt by RPI like years past - Pepperdine's RPI is similar to their Pablo ranking (which is darn good). This may be BYU's remarkable season last year pulling them to start this year. There is still excellent opportunities for those East of the Rockies smaller conference winners to rack up a much better RPI than their Pablo (Like the AAC, Conference USA, and Missouri Valley) - but even those don't seem as bad as just 4 or 5 years ago. I will tease with Texas State as being a team that is well positioned for great RPI success - but really any team that can dominate their conference (East of the Rockies) is going to continue to be in good shape.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 12, 2019 15:12:59 GMT -5
I'm not surprised. Even the last hold-outs have moved to RPI favorable scheduling - the switch to Top 4 seed hosts has really galvanized the top teams, and "interesting" RPI years (like 2010 for the PAC, 2014 for the B1G, and whichever-year-the-MAC got like 3/4 bids for the midmajors) have forced everyone to get with the program. There is still real danger for middle of the pack B1G and PAC teams in a bad OOC record year. Those teams rely on great OOC records of their conference mates to help them withstand ~ .500 conference record. Also, it is interesting to see what happens to the Big 12 and SEC if the middle and bottom of the conference keeps getting better. There is no longer a safe passage to a cushy RPI like there used to be. Doesn't appear that the West Coast Conference is getting hurt by RPI like years past - Pepperdine's RPI is similar to their Pablo ranking (which is darn good). This may be BYU's remarkable season last year pulling them to start this year. There is still excellent opportunities for those East of the Rockies smaller conference winners to rack up a much better RPI than their Pablo (Like the AAC, Conference USA, and Missouri Valley) - but even those don't seem as bad as just 4 or 5 years ago. I will tease with Texas State as being a team that is well positioned for great RPI success - but really any team that can dominate their conference (East of the Rockies) is going to continue to be in good shape. There is a still a risk for a bad OOC record year, but I think at this point it is aligning more toward underperformance (from injuries, teams still figuring it out, etc.) rather than having as structural component of it in the past - Oregon St. isn't going out and scheduling a half dozen Top 25-ish teams anymore. One thing to watch is the continued paring down of conference schedules - the Big XII is already light, and the ACC is moving to a shorter schedule IIRC, and how that will inflate RPIs (and whether the PAC/B1G go down to 16/18 games if it becomes too salient - which I think is a shame and one of the key reasons we need to move on from RPI). It will be interesting to watch the Big West and WCC - these conferences have been perhaps hardest hit, but the WCC seems to have the budgets to travel for good RPI match-ups, and I'm not sure the Big West does. Also, the Big West looks to be in a mini-resurgence - being hammered by RPI hasn't hurt them too much when they don't have that many NCAA quality teams - but if the rebound holds it'll become more important.
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