Hey, imthatguy, thanks for starting this thread. I've been thinking of starting one, but you beat me to it.
I'll take a stab at predicting the rankings, pre-season rankings anyway. I would start with the teams that were ranked or received votes at the end of last season. For a reminder, here are the
2018 final rankings:
1 Grand View (Iowa)
2 Benedictine Mesa (Ariz.)
3 Missouri Baptist
4 Lourdes (Ohio)
5 Ottawa (Kan.)
6 Briar Cliff (Iowa)
7 Cardinal Stritch (Wis.)
8 Park (Mo.)
9 St. Andrews (N.C.)
10 Robert Morris (Ill.)
Others receiving votes: Hope International (Calif.), St. Ambrose (Iowa), Warner (Fla.), Missouri Valley
I took a look at rosters to see who might have been affected by graduation or transfers:
Grand View: lost a couple key contributors, including 1st team AA RS Tim Johnson. But they still have 1st team AA's MB Felix Chapman and OH John Chamone.
Benedictine: the only key loss is MB Sam Buckels. Not sure why he's not still on the roster; he was only listed as a sophomore last season. (Interested if anyone knows why he's gone.) They still have 1st team AA L Jesus Izaguirre and 2nd team AA S Jaron Jones.
MoBap: lost long-time coach John Yehling and, more importantly, 4 time AA (and reigning POY) S Kyle Foley. There are some unproven setters on the roster, but not sure how you replace a player of Foley's stature. However, they still have 1st team AA OHs Luka Cajic and Steven Rodriguez, as well as 2nd team AA MB Cameron Hibbler.
Lourdes: they lost 1st team AA L Eric Ubior and S Ian Fields, who transferred to Ottawa-AZ. They still have 2nd team AA OH Even Gebert.
Ottawa-KS: lost 1st team AA OH Daniel Jacobs, and 2nd team AA's S Luke Pope and L Errol Basconcillo. Also lost OH Brandon Oswald who transferred to Briar Cliff.
speaking of
BC: they lost 1st team OH Peyton Schirman. They still have some talent left, including OH Ivan Trifunovic.
Cardinal Stritch: they don't have a 2019 roster posted yet, but there were about 3 key contributors last year who were seniors. They should still have 1st team AA MB Phil Schick.
Park: lost OH Victor Neves, but still have 2nd team AA RS Andrea Maggio.
St. Andrews: Lost OH Imar Robin. These guys snuck into the Invitational by winning their conference tournament in an upset. I don't see that happening again.
Robert Morris: these guys lost a lot. Their current roster for this season only shows 5 players. I counted 5 seniors from last year who are not among those 5, most notably OH Colby Magorien. They still have 2nd team AA S Bobby Ying. After Kyle Foley, Ying was arguably the next best setter in the NAIA.
Hope: only notable loss was OH Max Osmundson.
St. Ambrose: lost 2nd team AA S Austin Royer.
Warner: no 2019 roster posted, but it didn't look like they had too many key contributors last year who were seniors. Should have close the same roster as last year's 17-3 team.
MoVal: no 2019 roster posted yet. Only key senior from last year was OH Ivailo Enev.
One other team who I thought should have gotten votes, if not been in the top 10, was
UC Merced: they lost 2nd team AA RS Cole Smith, as well as M Jacob Shelton and L Matthew Pelfini. However, they still have some talented players, including the guy I think is the heir apparent to Kyle Foley as the most valuable player in the NAIA, S Ryan Steele.
The only other returning AA from last year is 1st teamer MB Ammuniki Wood of
Culver-Stockton. C-S started last season well, but faded down the stretch. I don't think they will have what it takes to move into the top 10. Other than that, I can't foresee another team that has a chance to sneak into the rankings. However, I say that will only a slim amount of certainty. I don't know a lot about any of the freshmen or juco transfers coming in. Like orangecurtain said above,
Aquinas will be interesting with all the experienced kids from CA on their roster. I think they will win more than other 1st year programs have, but can't see them getting into the rankings either.
So my predictions are:
- Grand View (defending champs; they are no. 1 until someone knocks them off)
- MoBap (even without Foley, too much talent)
- Benedictine-Mesa (impressive all season, although not that apparent until they started playing more of the midwest teams in the tournament)
- Lourdes (where they finished last year)
- Park (move up due to other team's losses)
- UC Merced (better last year than given credit for)
- Briar Cliff
- Cardinal Stritch
- Hope
- Warner
7 through 10 were tough; could have gone in just about any order. Tough to leave out Ottawa, but they lost so much talent. Losing Royer hurts St. Ambrose, too, and they faded a little down the stretch last year also. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the coaches vote. The pre-season rankings should be coming out in the next week or so. Anybody have any thoughts on my predictions?