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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2019 18:31:44 GMT -5
Texas A&M will probably fall near to the bottom of the 6 to 13 pack. Rice may fall out of seeding range. Bad day for the 4 Texas seeds hope. If Rice doesn’t end up winning their tourney, I’d imagine they find themselves in College Station. It's unfortunate Rice and WK don't play each other twice in the regular season. Rice's futures says 13 with 2 losses.... If they don't take any my guess is they still get a seed. When you look at the record for Rice and Florida, the only really difference is that Florida plays in the SEC. Non conference Florida is 0-3 against RPI top 25, 3-3 against RPI top 50; Rice is 1-0 against RPI top 25 (kind of a big win against probably #1 overall Texas) and 3-1 against RPI top 50. So other than the fact that Florida plays in the SEC, what do they bring to the table that Rice doesn't?
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2019 19:22:07 GMT -5
Right now I think the seeds are going to fall in the following ranges:
Obviously, the teams in the higher ranges would fall down to the next range if not selected.
1-4: Texas, Baylor, Pitt, Stanford, Wisconsin 5-10: Nebraska, Washington, Minnesota, Florida, Marquette 11-14: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Hawaii, Creighton 15-16: BYU, Penn State, Rice, Utah
If Utah wins @ Washington, I can see them moving into the 11-14 range.
I think Penn State will be "slotted" for a seed going into final weekend, if they can go 1-1 against Wisconsin/Minnesota, they will keep a seed, lose both and no love for the Nittany kitties this year (or, at least, they probably SHOULDN'T get a seed based on a the criteria)
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Nov 10, 2019 20:06:40 GMT -5
If Penn State wins at Illinois next week (big if IMO), takes care of the easy teams then loses both to Minny and Wisky, they would probably be 2-6 vs RPI top 25 and add another 4 top 50 wins. Wonder if the committee would consider the fact that all of their losses are to likely top 8 seeds.
PSU is pretty clearly one of the best 16 teams in the country but man, they got totally screwed by the BiG schedule this year, getting Purdue, Minny, Nebraska and Michigan only once, while getting the only top team that they can’t beat twice. Add to that the fact that Wichita State and Oregon are so unexpectedly embarrassing this year.
Not getting seeded wouldn’t be the end of the world though, I can’t imagine they’d be sent to Pitt so they’d probably get an easier host that they’ll be 50/50 favored against.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 10, 2019 20:09:52 GMT -5
Right now I think the seeds are going to fall in the following ranges: Obviously, the teams in the higher ranges would fall down to the next range if not selected. 1-4: Texas, Baylor, Pitt, Stanford, Wisconsin 5-10: Nebraska, Washington, Minnesota, Florida, Marquette 11-14: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Hawaii, Creighton 15-16: BYU, Penn State, Rice, Utah If Utah wins @ Washington, I can see them moving into the 11-14 range. I think Penn State will be "slotted" for a seed going into final weekend, if they can go 1-1 against Wisconsin/Minnesota, they will keep a seed, lose both and no love for the Nittany kitties this year (or, at least, they probably SHOULDN'T get a seed based on a the criteria) I have Creighton joining those others for a 14-16 range. I would also put Kentucky, Florida, and Marquette in the same range - and maybe Nebraska. Pittsburgh had a really good week. Wisconsin lost. Cincinnati and Utah are looking like 'lock' top 25 wins. Ohio State and Pepperdine are getting real close to being top 50 wins. They have Penn State as a top 25 win. Louisville has to turn things around to stay in the top 25, but for now they are top 25 and worse case is they just become 2 top 50 wins. South Carolina, Green Bay, Cal Poly, Florida State 2X, and Notre Dame (and as mentioned before Ohio State, Pepperdine) are all top 50 wins. Right now - I have them as a #3 seed.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 10, 2019 20:16:07 GMT -5
Here is my bracket as of tonight. Last 5 in: Illinois, South Carolina, Pepperdine, Villanova, & Ohio State. Last 3 out: SMU, Green Bay, VCU. Conference tournament upsets will probably move this a bit.
Rice, Utah just out on the seed.
1. Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Washington State, Prairie View A&M 16. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State, South Dakota
9. Nebraska, Colorado State, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado 8. Kentucky, Purdue, Wright State, Morehead State
5. Stanford, UCSB, Pepperdine, Albany 12. Hawaii, USC, Georgia, Princeton
13. Texas A&M, Rice, Oklahoma, New Mexico State 4. Wisconsin, UCLA, Notre Dame, Howard
3. Pittsburgh, Louisville, Michigan, Robert Morris 14. Penn State, Villanova, Dayton, Towson
11. Marquette, Cincinnati, Illinois, Miami-OH 6. Washington, Western Kentucky, Ohio State, Winthrop
7. Minnesota, San Diego, South Carolina, Samford 10. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast
15. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, American 2. Texas, Cal, Texas State, Fairfield
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2019 20:16:57 GMT -5
Right now I think the seeds are going to fall in the following ranges: Obviously, the teams in the higher ranges would fall down to the next range if not selected. 1-4: Texas, Baylor, Pitt, Stanford, Wisconsin 5-10: Nebraska, Washington, Minnesota, Florida, Marquette 11-14: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Hawaii, Creighton 15-16: BYU, Penn State, Rice, Utah If Utah wins @ Washington, I can see them moving into the 11-14 range. I think Penn State will be "slotted" for a seed going into final weekend, if they can go 1-1 against Wisconsin/Minnesota, they will keep a seed, lose both and no love for the Nittany kitties this year (or, at least, they probably SHOULDN'T get a seed based on a the criteria) I have Creighton joining those others for a 14-16 range. I would also put Kentucky, Florida, and Marquette in the same range - and maybe Nebraska. Pittsburgh had a really good week. Wisconsin lost. Cincinnati and Utah are looking like 'lock' top 25 wins. Ohio State and Pepperdine are getting real close to being top 50 wins. They have Penn State as a top 25 win. Louisville has to turn things around to stay in the top 25, but for now they are top 25 and worse case is they just become 2 top 50 wins. South Carolina, Green Bay, Cal Poly, Florida State 2X, and Notre Dame (and as mentioned before Ohio State, Pepperdine) are all top 50 wins. Right now - I have them as a #3 seed. by ranges I mean to say that I think 1-4 will come from those 5 teams, 5-10 will come from the 1 left out of the top 4 + some combination of the next 5, etc. I think the committee will find justifications to rationalize certain placements, but then that same argument doesn't apply to a completely different situation (even though it should).
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Post by cindra on Nov 10, 2019 20:25:18 GMT -5
Right now I think the seeds are going to fall in the following ranges: Obviously, the teams in the higher ranges would fall down to the next range if not selected. 1-4: Texas, Baylor, Pitt, Stanford, Wisconsin 5-10: Nebraska, Washington, Minnesota, Florida, Marquette 11-14: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Hawaii, Creighton 15-16: BYU, Penn State, Rice, Utah If Utah wins @ Washington, I can see them moving into the 11-14 range. I think Penn State will be "slotted" for a seed going into final weekend, if they can go 1-1 against Wisconsin/Minnesota, they will keep a seed, lose both and no love for the Nittany kitties this year (or, at least, they probably SHOULDN'T get a seed based on a the criteria) I have Creighton joining those others for a 14-16 range. I would also put Kentucky, Florida, and Marquette in the same range - and maybe Nebraska. Pittsburgh had a really good week. Wisconsin lost. Cincinnati and Utah are looking like 'lock' top 25 wins. Ohio State and Pepperdine are getting real close to being top 50 wins. They have Penn State as a top 25 win. Louisville has to turn things around to stay in the top 25, but for now they are top 25 and worse case is they just become 2 top 50 wins. South Carolina, Green Bay, Cal Poly, Florida State 2X, and Notre Dame (and as mentioned before Ohio State, Pepperdine) are all top 50 wins. Right now - I have them as a #3 seed. Even though there's no super landmark win as PSU looks only like a t25 team this year, good scheduling by Fisher and Lyke, Pitt's AD, to get a good amount of t25 and t50 teams on the year. Pepperdine, GB, SC, and OSU "hitting" as good teams is really nice for the resume.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2019 20:27:07 GMT -5
I'd probably guess the following seeds as of now:
a few caveats:
Texas beats Baylor again, Stanford wins out (Plummer is back), Utah beats Washington, at least one of USC/UCLA stays in the top 25, Marquette/Creighton split 1-1, Penn State drops both against Minnesota and Wisconsin, Minnesota beats Wisconsin, Nebraska drops both against Minnesota and Wisconsin, Kentucky/Florida/A&M continue to suck and produce split results:
1- Texas 8- Nebraska 9- Florida 16- Utah
2- Baylor 7- Washington 10- Marquette 15- BYU
3- Stanford 6- Minnesota 11- Kentucky 14- Texas A&M
4- Pitt 5- Wisconsin 12- Hawaii 13- Creighton
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Post by gibbyb1 on Nov 10, 2019 20:30:06 GMT -5
I have Creighton joining those others for a 14-16 range. I would also put Kentucky, Florida, and Marquette in the same range - and maybe Nebraska. Pittsburgh had a really good week. Wisconsin lost. Cincinnati and Utah are looking like 'lock' top 25 wins. Ohio State and Pepperdine are getting real close to being top 50 wins. They have Penn State as a top 25 win. Louisville has to turn things around to stay in the top 25, but for now they are top 25 and worse case is they just become 2 top 50 wins. South Carolina, Green Bay, Cal Poly, Florida State 2X, and Notre Dame (and as mentioned before Ohio State, Pepperdine) are all top 50 wins. Right now - I have them as a #3 seed. Even though there's no super landmark win as PSU looks only like a t25 team this year, good scheduling by Fisher and Lyke, Pitt's AD, to get a good amount of t25 and t50 teams on the year. Pepperdine, GB, SC, and OSU "hitting" as good teams is really nice for the resume. It’s not football, Lyke rubber stamped what Fisher turned in.
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Post by gibbyb1 on Nov 10, 2019 20:31:25 GMT -5
I'd probably guess the following seeds as of now: a few caveats: Texas beats Baylor again, Stanford wins out (Plummer is back), Utah beats Washington, at least one of USC/UCLA stays in the top 25, Marquette/Creighton split 1-1, Penn State drops both against Minnesota and Wisconsin, Minnesota beats Wisconsin, Nebraska drops both against Minnesota and Wisconsin, Kentucky/Florida/A&M continue to suck and produce split results: 1- Texas 8- Nebraska 9- Florida 16- Utah 2- Baylor 7- Washington 10- Marquette 15- BYU 3- Stanford 6- Minnesota 11- Kentucky 14- Texas A&M 4- Pitt 5- Wisconsin 12- Hawaii 13- Creighton p Washington and Wisconsin will sign on to this so fast your head will spin.
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Post by WahineFan44 on Nov 10, 2019 20:32:01 GMT -5
Here is my bracket as of tonight. Last 5 in: Illinois, South Carolina, Pepperdine, Villanova, & Ohio State. Last 3 out: SMU, Green Bay, VCU. Conference tournament upsets will probably move this a bit. Rice, Utah just out on the seed. 1. Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Washington State, Prairie View A&M 16. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State, South Dakota 9. Nebraska, Colorado State, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado 8. Kentucky, Purdue, Wright State, Morehead State 5. Stanford, UCSB, Pepperdine, Albany 12. Hawaii, USC, Georgia, Princeton 13. Texas A&M, Rice, Oklahoma, New Mexico State 4. Wisconsin, UCLA, Notre Dame, Howard 3. Pittsburgh, Louisville, Michigan, Robert Morris 14. Penn State, Villanova, Dayton, Towson 11. Marquette, Cincinnati, Illinois, Miami-OH 6. Washington, Western Kentucky, Ohio State, Winthrop 7. Minnesota, San Diego, South Carolina, Samford 10. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast 15. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, American 2. Texas, Cal, Texas State, Fairfield Those are some brutal second round matchups.
Baylor Washington state Creighton Missouri Nebraska Colorado state Kentucky Purdue Hawaii USC Texas AM Rice or oklahoma Pitt Michigan Washington with either WKU or Ohio state could be fun BYU utah/cal Poly Texas Cal
Shaping up to be a fun tournament!
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 10, 2019 20:38:11 GMT -5
Yes, there is some marginal weighting of more recent matches through October. Now that we are in November, it ramps up - historically, November matches get much more important, even controlling for the time. Thus, a 14 day gap between two matches has a much bigger change in outcome if the match occurs in November than if it happens in August.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 10, 2019 20:45:09 GMT -5
ah, giving advantage to those teams who have more opportunity to get "quality wins" in conference play, and disadvantage to those who are stuck in a lesser conference. Even if they play a very challenging non-conference schedule and get wins, they are diminished because they aren't recent. Well if you want to know how good a team is now, more recent matches tell you more information than do the ones that occurred 3 months ago. But of course your argument is all based on a faulty premise, that just playing good teams helps their Pablo rating. No. Similarly, Pablo rewards teams for good performance against marginal teams. Granted, if you play the bottom teams in the Valley these days, you better be beating them handily. But why wouldn't you? If you aren't, what does it say about how good you are?
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 10, 2019 20:49:48 GMT -5
Here is my bracket as of tonight. Last 5 in: Illinois, South Carolina, Pepperdine, Villanova, & Ohio State. Last 3 out: SMU, Green Bay, VCU. Conference tournament upsets will probably move this a bit. Rice, Utah just out on the seed. 1. Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Washington State, Prairie View A&M 16. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State, South Dakota 9. Nebraska, Colorado State, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado 8. Kentucky, Purdue, Wright State, Morehead State 5. Stanford, UCSB, Pepperdine, Albany 12. Hawaii, USC, Georgia, Princeton 13. Texas A&M, Rice, Oklahoma, New Mexico State 4. Wisconsin, UCLA, Notre Dame, Howard 3. Pittsburgh, Louisville, Michigan, Robert Morris 14. Penn State, Villanova, Dayton, Towson 11. Marquette, Cincinnati, Illinois, Miami-OH 6. Washington, Western Kentucky, Ohio State, Winthrop 7. Minnesota, San Diego, South Carolina, Samford 10. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast 15. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, American 2. Texas, Cal, Texas State, Fairfield Those are some brutal second round matchups. Baylor Washington state Creighton Missouri Nebraska Colorado state Kentucky Purdue Hawaii USC Texas AM Rice or oklahoma Pitt Michigan Washington with either WKU or Ohio state could be fun BYU utah/cal Poly Texas Cal Shaping up to be a fun tournament!
Well the reality is that we are likely to see more and more "brutal" second round matches as we get more parity in college volleyball. The only teams that usually get to get a pass for sub regionals (or at least are dependent on just 1 team being very good) is Penn State and Florida because regionalization almost mandates who will be in there sub regional in any given year. But that's why seeding matters (for HCA) and that the committee is OBJECTIVE in their selection that way teams can plan for an reasonably expect to be rewarded for their success year after year. One of the biggest revelations I've seen is the inclusion of Wisconsin early as the #3 seed, who, surely scheduled tough in the preseason, but didn't win anything, but then can do well in conference and be above teams that went out and won big matches non conference while still doing well in conference too. That is a deviation from what we've seen in prior years and if I were pretty much every team that DIDN'T play in the Big, Pac, Big 12, SEC, I'd be pissed as f*ck.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 10, 2019 21:11:28 GMT -5
I was curious what a Pittsburgh/Penn State sub regionals would look like. In the bracket above, Penn State's sub region on the surface may look pretty weak - Villanova and Dayton, but:
1) Towson with a #33 Pablo would be the toughest first round match for a seeded team. Dayton (#50) and Villanova (#72) - the subregional would be seeded backwards from how Pablo would treat those 4 teams. I am sure Towson would prefer a better fate then playing a seeded team in the 1st round, but then I am thinking they will have zero wins vs. the top 50 (if I remember).
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