RPI Futures Week 11 (11/11/19)

[haw2991]

Nov 11, 2019 20:18:07 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Nov 11, 2019 19:42:37 GMT -5 haw2991 said:

This is my bracket (for fun) after seeing bluepenquin’s bracket last week. I don't think the committee will leave Penn State unseeded. Whether or not Rice or Creighton is seeded, I think it can definitely go either way. I tried to make geography a focal point but found it too be difficult at times.

1.Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama A&M
16. Rice, Colorado State, Oklahoma, Northern Colorado

8. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast
9. Nebraska, San Diego, Dayton, American

4. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Villanova, Robert Morris
13. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, Winthrop

5. Wisconsin, VCU, Northern Iowa, Central Michigan
12. Marquette, Louisville, Illinois, Green Bay

3. Baylor, Cal, Stephen F. Austin, Towson
14. Hawaii, UCLA, Norte Dame, New Mexico State

6. Minnesota, USC, South Dakota, Wright State
11. Texas A&M, Purdue, Washington State, Texas State

7. Washington, Michigan, South Carolina, New Hampshire
10. Kentucky, Creighton, Western Kentucky, ETSU

2. Stanford, UCSB, Fairfield, Princeton
15. Penn State, Missouri, Iowa State, Howard

Geography is a point of emphasis for the Committee, so it can't be ignored. I didn't spend much time analyzing your work, but the thing that jumped out right away was the placement of Missouri and Iowa State at Penn State. There are many teams located within 400 miles of State College, so there is no way the Committee adds flights by sending those teams there. With the teams you have hosting, Iowa State will be sent to Minnesota, Wisconsin or Nebraska, and Missouri would be sent to Nebraska, since that is the only host within 400 miles of Columbia.

Well, thanks for pointing out the error I made. Iowa state was suppose to be at Wisconsin and VCU at Penn state.

And I went ahead and made to switch between Dayton/Missouri. That does make a lot more sense.....

[bluepenquin]

Nov 11, 2019 18:20:33 GMT -5 WahineFan44 said:

Nov 11, 2019 18:17:24 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

1. (1) Baylor - Big 12 Avg RPI Rank 1.357 T4 - 100% T16 - 100% T45 - 100% T90 - 100%

Is this saying that Baylor could drop its last 5 matches and still be a top 4 RPI team? Or is it saying that the chances of getting the record to be a top four seed, wether its one more loss or whatever the case, is 100 percent, meaning the matches they are favored in are 100-0 odds?

In all 1000 simulations - Baylor finished with an RPI of 4 better.  Only twice did they finish #4.  3 more losses was the most in 1000 simulations and it only happened 7 times.  They finished 3rd 6 of those times and 4th once - so the sample size is small.  If they dropped all 5 - I am sure they would finish worse than RPI #4.

[Deleted]

Is Nebraska's RPI dropping because of them playing Iowa and Northwestern?

[bluepenquin]

Creighton: It is difficult for me to do real good simulations on teams with a conference tournament - which muddies the waters for those teams and for teams with RPI around them.

Creighton has 4 matches left - 3 cupcakes and home against Marquette. They then will get either Villanova or St. Johns in the BE tournament and then likely Marquette in the final. Marquette is the tournament host. Creighton has ~ a 75% chance of beating Villanova on a neutral court. Potentially 3 matches that are on play. If we assume all of these matches are a given - then if Creighton loses just one more match their average RPI is 14.8 and if they lose two more it is 18.2. I don't know what it would be if they beat Marquette and then lose to Villanova in the 1st round of the Big East tournament and don't get another shot with Marquette. I am going to guess that a loss to Villanova would put them less than 50% chance of a seed - even if they win at home against Marquette. But if we want to assume that Creighton wins that 1st round game and their 3 cupcakes - I think if they split with Marquette, then they may be something like a 50% chance for a seed. If they sweep them, then 100% chance of a seed. Lose both and probably less than a 20% chance of a seed.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 11, 2019 20:50:58 GMT -5 @avid said:

Is Nebraska's RPI dropping because of them playing Iowa and Northwestern?

No, RPI Futures already had playing Iowa and Northwestern baked into Nebraska's RPI.  Since their chances of winning those two matches was <100% - they actually improved their RPI Futures based on just those two matches (although very slightly since they were overwhelming favorites in those games.  Nebraska's RPI Future dropped because:

1) They were among a group of teams with similar RPI scores/pct - and where at the top of this group.  So small movements in their RPI could have what looks like a large movement in their rank.

2) Their opponents by and large had an awful week.  Creighton and LMU suffered pretty big upsets.  UCLA lost twice and moved out of the top 25.  

[bluepenquin]

Nov 11, 2019 18:02:34 GMT -5 n00b said:

I love seeing so many conferences represented in the Top 16. Nine different conferences hosting 1st & 2nd Round matches would be great for the sport.

bluepenquin can Cincinnati get in there too? I figure they'll max out with wins over Tulane and UCF in the AAC tourney. Could that get them into the top 16?

I have/had them playing Tulane and UCF in the tournament - and winning those two matches plus their final 2 regular season matches happened 263 times and this was the results:

12th place - 4 (1.5%)
13th place - 7 (2.7%)
14th place - 20 (7.6%)
15th place - 41 (15.6%)
16th place - 51 (19.4%)
17th place - 58 (22.1%)
18th place - 53 (20.2%)
19th place - 18 (6.8%)
20th place - 9 (3.4%)
21st place - 1 (0.4%)
22nd place - 1 (0.4%)

[TigersFan13]

What do you think Missouri's chances of hosting the first two rounds are if they win out? That would give them wins over Kentucky at their place and South Carolina along with Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama, all top 100 RPI teams. Wondering if they could slip into the 15 or 16 seed, especially with Creighton and Penn State being borderline as well.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 11, 2019 21:28:13 GMT -5 TigersFan13 said:

What do you think Missouri's chances of hosting the first two rounds are if they win out? That would give them wins over Kentucky at their place and South Carolina along with Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama, all top 100 RPI teams. Wondering if they could slip into the 15 or 16 seed, especially with Creighton and Penn State being borderline as well.

Very high.  96 times out of 1000 they win out - and each time they had an RPI 16 or better with an average rank of 12.1.  Only 2 top 25 wins but a handful of top 50 wins.

[cindra]

Nov 11, 2019 21:37:45 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 11, 2019 21:28:13 GMT -5 TigersFan13 said:

What do you think Missouri's chances of hosting the first two rounds are if they win out? That would give them wins over Kentucky at their place and South Carolina along with Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama, all top 100 RPI teams. Wondering if they could slip into the 15 or 16 seed, especially with Creighton and Penn State being borderline as well.

Very high.  96 times out of 1000 they win out - and each time they had an RPI 16 or better with an average rank of 12.1.  Only 2 top 25 wins but a handful of top 50 wins.

1/10 chance to win out is not so hot, though. Hedge your bets.

[TigersFan13]

Nov 11, 2019 21:37:45 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 11, 2019 21:28:13 GMT -5 TigersFan13 said:

What do you think Missouri's chances of hosting the first two rounds are if they win out? That would give them wins over Kentucky at their place and South Carolina along with Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama, all top 100 RPI teams. Wondering if they could slip into the 15 or 16 seed, especially with Creighton and Penn State being borderline as well.

Very high.  96 times out of 1000 they win out - and each time they had an RPI 16 or better with an average rank of 12.1.  Only 2 top 25 wins but a handful of top 50 wins.

What if they were to lose to Kentucky but beat everyone else? I don't picture them hosting at that point, being that their best remaining win would be a team in the 40s in RPI but who knows. 

[bluepenquin]

Nov 11, 2019 21:45:43 GMT -5 TigersFan13 said:

Nov 11, 2019 21:37:45 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Very high.  96 times out of 1000 they win out - and each time they had an RPI 16 or better with an average rank of 12.1.  Only 2 top 25 wins but a handful of top 50 wins.

What if they were to lose to Kentucky but beat everyone else? I don't picture them hosting at that point, being that their best remaining win would be a team in the 40s in RPI but who knows. 

Average is 16.5 when losing just one.  I don't have a history of who they lost to, but I would guess that their RPI was usually better when beating Kentucky and losing to someone else. They would probably need some help to get a seed.

[WahineFan44]

I would like to see some people go crazy so I will wish for these matchups

Michigan vs Stanford, second round.

Washington vs Nebraska Sweet 16.

Hawaii vs Southern Cal (Mainly because as scary as that sounds for Hawaii, they always have an iconic match).

Penn State Vs Anyone thats not a cupcake in the second round or vice versa a cupcake so everyone else can go crazy

Texas vs Wisconsin Sweet 16.



I know most of these are not likely to happen, but they would still be funny to see the crazyness on selection day.

[trojansc]

Nov 12, 2019 4:28:22 GMT -5 WahineFan44 said:

I would like to see some people go crazy so I will wish for these matchups

Michigan vs Stanford, second round.

Washington vs Nebraska Sweet 16.

Hawaii vs Southern Cal (Mainly because as scary as that sounds for Hawaii, they always have an iconic match).

Penn State Vs Anyone thats not a cupcake in the second round or vice versa a cupcake so everyone else can go crazy

Texas vs Wisconsin Sweet 16.



I know most of these are not likely to happen, but they would still be funny to see the crazyness on selection day.

Actually, USC or UCLA being sent to Hawaii for 1st/2nd rounds is very very possible.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 12, 2019 4:41:44 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 12, 2019 4:28:22 GMT -5 WahineFan44 said:

I would like to see some people go crazy so I will wish for these matchups

Michigan vs Stanford, second round.

Washington vs Nebraska Sweet 16.

Hawaii vs Southern Cal (Mainly because as scary as that sounds for Hawaii, they always have an iconic match).

Penn State Vs Anyone thats not a cupcake in the second round or vice versa a cupcake so everyone else can go crazy

Texas vs Wisconsin Sweet 16.



I know most of these are not likely to happen, but they would still be funny to see the crazyness on selection day.

Actually, USC or UCLA being sent to Hawaii for 1st/2nd rounds is very very possible.

This could be a data point as to whether the committee looks at prior meetings for subregionals.  UCLA, USC, Cal, and Washington State are all going to fly to finite number of hosts that will require a fly-in.  Given all the alternative options - I am going to guess that UCLA doesn't end up in Hawaii.

[WahineFan44]

Nov 12, 2019 7:37:43 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 12, 2019 4:41:44 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Actually, USC or UCLA being sent to Hawaii for 1st/2nd rounds is very very possible.

This could be a data point as to whether the committee looks at prior meetings for subregionals.  UCLA, USC, Cal, and Washington State are all going to fly to finite number of hosts that will require a fly-in.  Given all the alternative options - I am going to guess that UCLA doesn't end up in Hawaii.

My gut is telling me it’ll be cal.