bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 13, 2020 20:01:08 GMT -5
Two States are currently at their peak in cases: Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Hawaii, which has mostly avoided COVID is currently getting hit hard. Their 7 day total is 1,549 cases - up from 499 just 14 days ago. Their deaths have more than doubled in the last couple days.
I am wondering how COVID gets controlled before herd immunity starts kicking in?
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Post by n00b on Aug 13, 2020 21:14:25 GMT -5
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Post by hammer on Aug 13, 2020 22:47:44 GMT -5
Two States are currently at their peak in cases: Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Hawaii, which has mostly avoided COVID is currently getting hit hard. Their 7 day total is 1,549 cases - up from 499 just 14 days ago. Their deaths have more than doubled in the last couple days. I am wondering how COVID gets controlled before herd immunity starts kicking in? On my recent trip to Minnesota my opponent in a match play golf round said this, "There are two types of people, those who have COVID, and those who will get it." I guess the interpretation is that it is very, very difficult to lock it down.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 14, 2020 7:56:00 GMT -5
I can see a strategy to hold out as long as possible until there is a vaccine. A lot will depend on the effectiveness and timing of a vaccine. Also the potential for different strains of the virus over time and the role immunity and vaccines will work in the long run. I have heard that 20-25% of the population having the virus is enough to have a sizeable impact on the reproduction rate. Add in a vaccine that is only 50% effective and that alone would be very impactful. I had heard that NYC was at 25% a long time ago. Arizona, Texas, and Florida have to be approaching 25% in many of their locations. OTH, it does make me worried that so far COVID has been pretty much nonexistent in my neck of the woods. Anyway - I thought this article on T-Cells and Herd Immunity was very interesting. nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/reasons-for-covid-19-optimism-on-t-cells-and-herd-immunity.html
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Post by volleylearner on Aug 14, 2020 9:17:52 GMT -5
On my recent trip to Minnesota my opponent in a match play golf round said this, "There are two types of people, those who have COVID, and those who will get it." I guess the interpretation is that it is very, very difficult to lock it down. Depends how long you live. Some doctors believe that everyone will eventually get Alzheimer's--unless something else kills them first. It is also important to keep in mind that it isn't just whether one gets infected but also how serious the infection is. Masks, distancing, and washing hands even when they don't prevent an infection can lead to a milder case by reducing the viral load that is transmitted.
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Post by ironhammer on Aug 14, 2020 9:56:30 GMT -5
I can see a strategy to hold out as long as possible until there is a vaccine. A lot will depend on the effectiveness and timing of a vaccine. Also the potential for different strains of the virus over time and the role immunity and vaccines will work in the long run. I have heard that 20-25% of the population having the virus is enough to have a sizeable impact on the reproduction rate. Add in a vaccine that is only 50% effective and that alone would be very impactful. I had heard that NYC was at 25% a long time ago. Arizona, Texas, and Florida have to be approaching 25% in many of their locations. OTH, it does make me worried that so far COVID has been pretty much nonexistent in my neck of the woods. Anyway - I thought this article on T-Cells and Herd Immunity was very interesting. nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/reasons-for-covid-19-optimism-on-t-cells-and-herd-immunity.htmlThere is another issue that needs to be pointed out. Herd immunity can't always be acheived though natural infection. Take Measles. It is even more infectious than Covid. Prior to the vaccine, it was a common disease, afflicting children the most. Yet despite a substantial population exposed to it, large number of people keep getting it and fell ill from it. There weren't enough people developing immunity to it to achieve herd immunity. theconversation.com/coronavirus-what-will-happen-if-we-cant-produce-a-vaccine-144307Numerous diseases have been eliminated in many countries thanks to herd immunity produced by vaccination programmes. But herd immunity is not something that can be achieved by natural infection.Take the example of measles, which is caused by a virus that has been around in humans for centuries. It is highly infectious – the R0 value is 15. This means that on average one child with measles can infect 15 others. As a result, around 95% of people need to be resistant to the disease for a population to achieve herd immunity.
Most people who recover from a measles infection produce a good immune response that protects them for the rest of their life. And yet, before vaccination, measles was a very common childhood disease. Each new generation of children were susceptible and not enough people naturally became resistant to produce herd immunity.
In the 1930s, there was a temporary herd immunity effect recorded in one location in the US. But this was an exception, and so most countries rolled out universal measles vaccination programmes that have enabled them to come close to eliminating the disease.
Scientists think that the R0 value for SARS-CoV-2 is between 4 and 6, which is similar to that of the rubella virus. The level of vaccination needed to produce herd immunity to and eliminate rubella is 85%.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 14, 2020 9:57:42 GMT -5
On my recent trip to Minnesota my opponent in a match play golf round said this, "There are two types of people, those who have COVID, and those who will get it." I guess the interpretation is that it is very, very difficult to lock it down. Depends how long you live. Some doctors believe that everyone will eventually get Alzheimer's--unless something else kills them first. It is also important to keep in mind that it isn't just whether one gets infected but also how serious the infection is. Masks, distancing, and washing hands even when they don't prevent an infection can lead to a milder case by reducing the viral load that is transmitted. If this true (and I want to believe in viral load) - then wouldn't the best solution be to give everyone a very mild dose that develops the immunity needed while not getting sick?
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Post by ironhammer on Aug 14, 2020 10:00:25 GMT -5
Depends how long you live. Some doctors believe that everyone will eventually get Alzheimer's--unless something else kills them first. It is also important to keep in mind that it isn't just whether one gets infected but also how serious the infection is. Masks, distancing, and washing hands even when they don't prevent an infection can lead to a milder case by reducing the viral load that is transmitted. If this true (and I want to believe in viral load) - then wouldn't the best solution be to give everyone a very mild dose that develops the immunity needed while not getting sick? The problem is, not everyone reacts to a "mild dose" the same way. It can trigger a big immune reaction in some people and only minor reaction from others.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 14, 2020 10:05:42 GMT -5
If this true (and I want to believe in viral load) - then wouldn't the best solution be to give everyone a very mild dose that develops the immunity needed while not getting sick? The problem is, not everyone reacts to a "mild dose" the same way. It can trigger a immune big reaction in some people and only minor reaction from others. Curious - then what does this mean for the viral load theory? I guess we can have both - viral load and people react differently. Clearly, people react differently with the very large % of people that end up being asymptomatic. Is any of this because of viral load - I doubt it?
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Post by ironhammer on Aug 14, 2020 10:08:39 GMT -5
The problem is, not everyone reacts to a "mild dose" the same way. It can trigger a immune big reaction in some people and only minor reaction from others. Curious - then what does this mean for the viral load theory? I guess we can have both - viral load and people react differently. Clearly, people react differently with the very large % of people that end up being asymptomatic. Is any of this because of viral load - I doubt it? Thing is, there are a LOT of variables involved here...
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 14, 2020 10:26:34 GMT -5
CV-19 seems to have just the worst characteristics for our country to deal with. Lots of people are asymptomatic, long incubation time, lots of symptoms in common with other viruses we don't care about (flu, common cold).
If 5% of people who got it died, or if 10% were asymptomatic instead of 40-60% (or whatever), or if in addition to respiratory symptoms everyone got nasty boils on their face, I feel like we would have already beat this thing in America.
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Post by hammer on Aug 14, 2020 10:50:14 GMT -5
Depends how long you live. Some doctors believe that everyone will eventually get Alzheimer's--unless something else kills them first. It is also important to keep in mind that it isn't just whether one gets infected but also how serious the infection is. Masks, distancing, and washing hands even when they don't prevent an infection can lead to a milder case by reducing the viral load that is transmitted. If this true (and I want to believe in viral load) - then wouldn't the best solution be to give everyone a very mild dose that develops the immunity needed while not getting sick? You mean, sort of like a vaccine, but a live one.
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Post by ironhammer on Aug 14, 2020 10:52:02 GMT -5
CV-19 seems to have just the worst characteristics for our country to deal with. Lots of people are asymptomatic, long incubation time, lots of symptoms in common with other viruses we don't care about (flu, common cold). If 5% of people who got it died, or if 10% were asymptomatic instead of 40-60% (or whatever), or if in addition to respiratory symptoms everyone got nasty boils on their face, I feel like we would have already beat this thing in America. Actually some milder coronavirus varieties do cause the common cold.
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 14, 2020 10:55:06 GMT -5
CV-19 seems to have just the worst characteristics for our country to deal with. Lots of people are asymptomatic, long incubation time, lots of symptoms in common with other viruses we don't care about (flu, common cold). If 5% of people who got it died, or if 10% were asymptomatic instead of 40-60% (or whatever), or if in addition to respiratory symptoms everyone got nasty boils on their face, I feel like we would have already beat this thing in America. Actually some milder coronavirus varieties do cause the common cold. Yes, I was speaking of viruses other than SARS-COV-2.
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Post by mikegarrison on Aug 14, 2020 10:56:54 GMT -5
CV-19 seems to have just the worst characteristics for our country to deal with. Lots of people are asymptomatic, long incubation time, lots of symptoms in common with other viruses we don't care about (flu, common cold). If 5% of people who got it died, or if 10% were asymptomatic instead of 40-60% (or whatever), or if in addition to respiratory symptoms everyone got nasty boils on their face, I feel like we would have already beat this thing in America. Actually some milder coronavirus varieties do cause the common cold. Yes, but it's going to be easier to have a discussion if we all agree that "the coronavirus" is a reference to SARS-CoV-2 and not other coronaviruses.
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