Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 18:22:47 GMT -5
why are people comparing this to the flu? We have flu vaccines, like lots of them for lots of different strains of the flu. there is no Covid-19 vaccine and won't be one for many months. numbers around the globe are spiking rapidly. BBC has a map showing spread of confirmed cases outside of China since 2.18. Most interesting (scary as F) to me is March 1, 7,332 cases, March 5, 16,890, March 9, 32,631. I am no mathmagician, but that seems like it is doubling in 5 days... Everyone still feeling confident China numbers are accurate, you know, since they have gone from about 77,000ish cases on February 23 to a whopping total of 80,500ish cases on March 8.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 19:26:35 GMT -5
Well, this isn't the same as the common flu. That is the point. The epidemiologists are just getting a handle on what this virus does. "St. Louis closed schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking, for 143 days. Pittsburgh closed 7 days after peak and only for 53 days. And the death rate for the epidemic in St. Louis was roughly one-third as high as in Pittsburgh." From Science. www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirusYour quoting statistics from the Spanish flu from over 100 years ago. Not even a comparable scenario and exactly the type of tactics that the media is using daily to stir up this frenzy. Again, use caution and not overreact. ^^^^^ The spanish flu had a lot of young people die because of overdosing on aspirin. The dosage was about 100X one of today's tablets and people took/gave to kids to get their fevers down... The comparison is beyond irresponsible. Even trying to extrapolate the Italian rates to anywhere is INSANE. It is better for people to do their own learning to actually convince themselves. Go research italy's death rate for H1N1 (2009) compared to ANY first world country. You will see Italy has a real issue not killing people that get hospitalized there (and maybe that will make you think why). Finally, the mortality rate on this disease is pure BS. It is unknown. You have a fairly accurate NUMERATOR (that is skewed by CLUSTERS) but you are dividing by the wrong DENOMINATOR. The number infected is completely unknown because 90% of the people that have tested positive either have NO symptoms or a cough/fever that lasts less than 12 hours. There is no way of knowing how many people were actually infected. The same Chicken Littles that are panicking about this somehow fail to tell you that the ACTUAL death rate for the seasonal flu is 10% in the USA. That is deaths divided by CONFIRMED by test/hospitalization. The way we get it so low is we GUESS that 50-62 millions OTHERS that were not tested also had the flu this season....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 19:31:24 GMT -5
Death Rate is nothing to worry about until it's your mom or grandma. +1000 So I guess you never allow your mom and grandma ride in an automobile? Or do you ignore statistics that show how deadly cars are? Actually, the homicide risk is quite high too. And since 35,000 americans died from the seasonal flu last year, did you demand that no one leave their house for those five months of the year? Or just the most active 3 months? Falls kill far more old people than H1N1 did or this will. We should bubble wrap them all or at least demand laws that they wear bubble wrap.
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Post by pepperbrooks on Mar 10, 2020 19:58:26 GMT -5
So I guess you never allow your mom and grandma ride in an automobile? Or do you ignore statistics that show how deadly cars are? Actually, the homicide risk is quite high too. And since 35,000 americans died from the seasonal flu last year, did you demand that no one leave their house for those five months of the year? Or just the most active 3 months? Falls kill far more old people than H1N1 did or this will. We should bubble wrap them all or at least demand laws that they wear bubble wrap. You’re missing the point.
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Post by akbar on Mar 10, 2020 20:26:36 GMT -5
So I guess you never allow your mom and grandma ride in an automobile? Or do you ignore statistics that show how deadly cars are? Actually, the homicide risk is quite high too. And since 35,000 americans died from the flu last year, did you demand that no one leave their house for those five months of the year? Or just the most active 3 months? Falls kill far more old people than H1N1 did or this will. We should bubble wrap them all or at least demand laws that they wear bubble wrap. Take it easy. I would say that many of the discussions at higher levels of education, industry, government and healthcare have a way better understanding of why social distancing is the best route to go with this particular virus. Clearly at an international level, scientists and country leaders are communicating and sharing data that puts things in a way better perspective than using planes, trains and automobile death statistics. Right? These decisions by major universities, state governments and companies like Google to mitigate human mingling is not one based on tweets, hysteria and Op Eds and I'm fairly confident these practices are put in place for a well thought out, advised and debated rationale. When the virus is new and virtually everyone can get ill, it is important to try to contain the spread of the virus. I received a flu shot and fairly confident I was exposed to people who had the flu if not multiple people. I did not get the flu. The Flu has been with mankind for about 2000 year in various forms, Covid-19 was first identified on Dec 1 and everything I read a vaccine for Covid 19 does not exist. We will get through this. I will follow the lead of the experts and do my best to help others stay well.....just like I do when I drive defensively, getting my flu shot and staying away from elderly people when I'm under the weather. Lastly, the speed at which the outbreak played out matters hugely for its consequences. What epidemiologists fear most is the health care system becoming overwhelmed by a sudden explosion of illness that requires more people to be hospitalized than it can handle. In that scenario, more people will die because there won’t be enough hospital beds or ventilators to keep them alive. Feel free to google Flattening the Curve, it may help for those who don't fully understand or appreciate the movement that is happening as I write this. All of UC schools are going remote fyi
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Post by Boof1224 on Mar 10, 2020 21:13:56 GMT -5
People are blowing this stuff way out of proportion. 15k people die in USA alone each year from flu. How many have died from this world wide, 3-4 k. The mass hysteria needs to stop. It said this virus has killed about 4k worldwide. The flu kills between 300k and 650k a year. I think people are being ridiculous
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Post by justahick on Mar 10, 2020 21:27:57 GMT -5
So I guess you never allow your mom and grandma ride in an automobile? Or do you ignore statistics that show how deadly cars are? Actually, the homicide risk is quite high too. And since 35,000 americans died from the flu last year, did you demand that no one leave their house for those five months of the year? Or just the most active 3 months? Falls kill far more old people than H1N1 did or this will. We should bubble wrap them all or at least demand laws that they wear bubble wrap. These decisions by major universities, state governments and companies like Google to mitigate human mingling is not one based on tweets, hysteria and Op Eds and I'm fairly confident these practices are put in place for a well thought out, advised and debated rationale. IMO their rationale is primarily one of liability and complaint mitigation. Send kids away from campus to be somewhere else with different kids is only going to spread social circles that would have otherwise been more contained. This is especially true for schools extending spring break for an extra week - what do kids do during spring break? ... go warm places to hang out with other kids... What is the incubation time for COV19? ... about 2 weeks. So in 3 weeks they are bringing back together the people that they just spread out to virtually guarantee that someone will bring the virus back to campus. Containment strategies might have worked a month ago if universally applied (practically impossible in the US) - way too late now. All the closing schools are doing is making it somebody else's problem.
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Post by sonofdogman on Mar 10, 2020 21:28:46 GMT -5
I'm much more concerned with elderly volleyball (and Junior volleyball referees) than I am with Junior volleyball. Am I right?
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Post by Boof1224 on Mar 10, 2020 21:34:26 GMT -5
These decisions by major universities, state governments and companies like Google to mitigate human mingling is not one based on tweets, hysteria and Op Eds and I'm fairly confident these practices are put in place for a well thought out, advised and debated rationale. IMO their rationale is primarily one of liability and complaint mitigation. Send kids away from campus to be somewhere else with different kids is only going to spread social circles that would have otherwise been more contained. This is especially true for schools extending spring break for an extra week - what do kids do during spring break? ... go warm places to hang out with other kids... What is the incubation time for COV19? ... about 2 weeks. So in 3 weeks they are bringing back together the people that they just spread out to virtually guarantee that someone will bring the virus back to campus. Containment strategies might have worked a month ago if universally applied (practically impossible in the US) - way too late now. All the closing schools are doing is making it somebody else's problem. None of this matters. What they said is between this year and next 80-90% of population would get it. Shutting the world down isn’t gonna do a damn thing. 80 percent of cases are minor a lot not ever knowing they ever had it. I think people are ridiculous. Flu kills way more and usually the elder are high risk there also.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 21:35:06 GMT -5
People are blowing this stuff way out of proportion. 15k people die in USA alone each year from flu. How many have died from this world wide, 3-4 k. The mass hysteria needs to stop. It said this virus has killed about 4k worldwide. The flu kills between 300k and 650k a year. I think people are being ridiculous Since people keep comparing COVID-19 to the flu, here's a graphical representation of why that's a poor comparison:
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Post by pepperbrooks on Mar 10, 2020 21:41:47 GMT -5
People are blowing this stuff way out of proportion. 15k people die in USA alone each year from flu. How many have died from this world wide, 3-4 k. The mass hysteria needs to stop. It said this virus has killed about 4k worldwide. The flu kills between 300k and 650k a year. I think people are being ridiculous This is not the flu. If we just let this go unchecked and do nothing, hospitals could be overrun leading to more deaths.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 21:43:20 GMT -5
Harvard is sending their kids home. Need to be gone by Friday, dorms packed up and cleared out. As a colleague said “If one of the top schools I. The nation is saying go home, %*$# is real!” Yes, our universities are a bastion of sanity and grounded decisions.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Mar 10, 2020 21:55:19 GMT -5
So I guess you never allow your mom and grandma ride in an automobile? Or do you ignore statistics that show how deadly cars are? Actually, the homicide risk is quite high too. And since 35,000 americans died from the flu last year, did you demand that no one leave their house for those five months of the year? Or just the most active 3 months? Falls kill far more old people than H1N1 did or this will. We should bubble wrap them all or at least demand laws that they wear bubble wrap. Feel free to google Flattening the Curve, it may help for those who don't fully understand or appreciate the movement that is happening as I write this. This is an interesting graph - although kind of tough to quantify the impact w/o numbers on either axis?
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Post by Boof1224 on Mar 10, 2020 22:02:53 GMT -5
People are blowing this stuff way out of proportion. 15k people die in USA alone each year from flu. How many have died from this world wide, 3-4 k. The mass hysteria needs to stop. It said this virus has killed about 4k worldwide. The flu kills between 300k and 650k a year. I think people are being ridiculous This is not the flu. If we just let this go unchecked and do nothing, hospitals could be overrun leading to more deaths. They already said 80-90 percent of population with get this either this year or next. Shutting down everything isn’t gonna do anything www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
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Post by Phaedrus on Mar 10, 2020 22:33:40 GMT -5
Well, this isn't the same as the common flu. That is the point. The epidemiologists are just getting a handle on what this virus does. "St. Louis closed schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking, for 143 days. Pittsburgh closed 7 days after peak and only for 53 days. And the death rate for the epidemic in St. Louis was roughly one-third as high as in Pittsburgh." From Science. www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirusYour quoting statistics from the Spanish flu from over 100 years ago. Not even a comparable scenario and exactly the type of tactics that the media is using daily to stir up this frenzy. Again, use caution and not overreact. I actually got the statistics from Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist from Harvard. I figured that if it is good enough for him.
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