bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 9, 2020 22:28:42 GMT -5
It seems to me that the economy has already paid a pretty steep price. But ... all the models agree that if you stop too soon, then the disease comes roaring back. What's worse than paying a big price to avoid a lot of deaths from the disease? Paying a big price and then stopping too soon, so you don't even get the benefits of avoiding a lot of deaths from the disease. Yes - but when is too soon, and when is it creating more harm to wait too long? If only we could have perfect knowledge on the exact right time. I suspect most are going to error on waiting a bit longer, however I doubt there will be agreement on the optimal point.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 9, 2020 22:48:35 GMT -5
I guess this is still an unknown concerning weather. I hear a lot about warm weather is not a factor, but when I look at the detail of positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths in the US - there seems to be two unmistakable correlations: 1) High population density is anywhere from 3-10 times more likely to get this and/or die than the very low population density places. 2) The cooler the weather - the more likely to get this. Here is a quote from the article towards the end: "Even in the U.S. southern states like Florida and Louisiana have been hard-hit along with colder states like New York and Michigan." This is factually wrong. Louisiana - yes, they are the outlier. Particularly New Orleans and Jefferson Parrish. But not Florida (at least not yet). Florida has a *lot* of positive tests - however this isn't taking into account of per capita. Only California and New York have tested more people than Florida. As of today, Florida has 761 per 1M people test positive - which is less than half of: Connecticut, D.C., Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. And then deaths per Million is at 16 - which is well below most northern states. So far, cooler weather states have been hit much harder than warmer weather states. Will warmer weather 'kill' this - I doubt it, but I have to believe it will help.
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Post by jayj79 on Apr 9, 2020 23:29:21 GMT -5
Or increase the number of automatic qualifiers to the top 3 or 4 from each conference. I don't think the NCAA will have 96-128 teams in the tournament (there are 32 conferences in Division I WVB)
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Post by saywhatnow on Apr 10, 2020 2:16:05 GMT -5
Or increase the number of automatic qualifiers to the top 3 or 4 from each conference. I don't think the NCAA will have 96-128 teams in the tournament (there are 32 conferences in Division I WVB) and with what money? Adding teams costs money
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Post by akbar on Apr 10, 2020 5:56:04 GMT -5
Here is a quote from the article towards the end: "Even in the U.S. southern states like Florida and Louisiana have been hard-hit along with colder states like New York and Michigan." This is factually wrong. Louisiana - yes, they are the outlier. Particularly New Orleans and Jefferson Parrish. But not Florida (at least not yet). Florida has a *lot* of positive tests - however this isn't taking into account of per capita. Only California and New York have tested more people than Florida. As of today, Florida has 761 per 1M people test positive - which is less than half of: Connecticut, D.C., Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. And then deaths per Million is at 16 - which is well below most northern states. So far, cooler weather states have been hit much harder than warmer weather states. Will warmer weather 'kill' this - I doubt it, but I have to believe it will help. OK, but I wonder how many millions of vacationers drove, flew and bused into Florida from Rhode Island, NY, NJ and Pennsylvania between Jan and April and came home and THEN tested positive back home. hmmmm. NY has more positive cases than any other COUNTRY.....in the world...yep....you read that correctly. Some of that is because their Gov. Cuomo has demanded and allowed more testing. The positive sign, while deaths are still climbing, people admitted to ICU and hospitals in general, is reducing. NY might be the first state to emerge from this in the nation. I wonder if Florida is just ramping up as the first positive test officially was March 1. Its hard for anyone to trust Florida's stats when you have a clown like Desantis saying this: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falsely claimed Thursday that the novel coronavirus hasn't killed anyone under 25 nationwide while discussing a timeline for reopening schools in the state. Wut??? Sounds like the Governor of Georgia who shrugged his shoulders admitting he just found out asymptomatic people can transmit. smh In Florida, almost 17,000 people in the state have tested positive for the virus, with 371 people having already died. I DO REALLY REALLy hope that warm humid weather does knock this bugger down. Florida has a significant elderly population and that is worrisome.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 10, 2020 7:06:12 GMT -5
Here is a quote from the article towards the end: "Even in the U.S. southern states like Florida and Louisiana have been hard-hit along with colder states like New York and Michigan." This is factually wrong. Louisiana - yes, they are the outlier. Particularly New Orleans and Jefferson Parrish. But not Florida (at least not yet). Florida has a *lot* of positive tests - however this isn't taking into account of per capita. Only California and New York have tested more people than Florida. As of today, Florida has 761 per 1M people test positive - which is less than half of: Connecticut, D.C., Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. And then deaths per Million is at 16 - which is well below most northern states. So far, cooler weather states have been hit much harder than warmer weather states. Will warmer weather 'kill' this - I doubt it, but I have to believe it will help. OK, but I wonder how many millions of vacationers drove, flew and bused into Florida from Rhode Island, NY, NJ and Pennsylvania between Jan and April and came home and THEN tested positive back home. hmmmm. I wonder if Florida is just ramping up as the first positive test officially was March 1. Its hard for anyone to trust Florida's stats when you have a clown like Desantis saying this: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falsely claimed Thursday that the novel coronavirus hasn't killed anyone under 25 nationwide while discussing a timeline for reopening schools in the state. Wut??? Sounds like the Governor of Georgia who shrugged his shoulders admitting he just found out asymptomatic people can transmit. smh In Florida, almost 17,000 people in the state have tested positive for the virus, with 371 people having already died. I DO REALLY REALLy hope that warm humid weather does knock this bugger down. Florida has a significant elderly population and that is worrisome. www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/09/did_ron_desantis_make_the_right_call_142905.htmlSean Trende talked about the Florida numbers in an article yesterday. Many of us have been waiting for the shoe to drop in Florida from the ~ spring break reported *bad* activity. But the evidence just isn't supporting this. It is still possible - but it sure seems less likely that Florida is going to see these kinds of problems seen in the NE. He also addresses the RI/NY,NJ hypothesis you mentioned above and claims the data doesn't support this. Trende didn't address the impact of weather in this article.
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Post by akbar on Apr 10, 2020 7:25:43 GMT -5
OK, but I wonder how many millions of vacationers drove, flew and bused into Florida from Rhode Island, NY, NJ and Pennsylvania between Jan and April and came home and THEN tested positive back home. hmmmm. I wonder if Florida is just ramping up as the first positive test officially was March 1. Its hard for anyone to trust Florida's stats when you have a clown like Desantis saying this: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falsely claimed Thursday that the novel coronavirus hasn't killed anyone under 25 nationwide while discussing a timeline for reopening schools in the state. Wut??? Sounds like the Governor of Georgia who shrugged his shoulders admitting he just found out asymptomatic people can transmit. smh In Florida, almost 17,000 people in the state have tested positive for the virus, with 371 people having already died. I DO REALLY REALLy hope that warm humid weather does knock this bugger down. Florida has a significant elderly population and that is worrisome. www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/09/did_ron_desantis_make_the_right_call_142905.htmlSean Trende talked about the Florida numbers in an article yesterday. Many of us have been waiting for the shoe to drop in Florida from the ~ spring break reported *bad* activity. But the evidence just isn't supporting this. It is still possible - but it sure seems less likely that Florida is going to see these kinds of problems seen in the NE. He also addresses the RI/NY,NJ hypothesis you mentioned above and claims the data doesn't support this. Trende didn't address the impact of weather in this article. The "Spring Break Scenario" you are eluding to isn't what I said. The theory is thousands to millions of spring Breakers for the most part commingled (because they were allowed to) with each other not the native Floridians (as much) and spread it among each other and brought it back up North. There they would be tested and show up on the data not on the Florida data. Again, I hope you are correct 🙏 and the warmer weather DOES mitigate this virus. The last thing we need is more Brighton Rehabilitation and Wellness Centers in Beaver, Pennsylvania. Nightmare.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 10, 2020 7:38:09 GMT -5
Here are the worst 10 states plus D.C. in terms of deaths per 1M as of yesterday. The number of deaths/1M follows each state with the state population density as measured by # of people per square mile in parenthesis.
1. New York - 363 (357) 2. New Jersey - 191 (1,018) 3. Louisiana - 151 (90) 4. Michigan - 108 (103) 5. Connecticut - 107 (643) 6. Massachusetts - 72 (658) 7. Washington - 55 (107) 8. D.C. - 45 (10,327) 9. Illinois - 42 (219) 10. Rhode Island - 41 (686)
And the 10 best states so far:
51. Wyoming - 0 (6) 50. West Virginia - 3 (74) 49. Hawaii - 4 (130) 48. Utah - 4 (38) 47. Montana - 6 (7) 46. North Carolina - 6 (195) 45. North Dakota - 7 (11) 44. South Dakota - 7 (11) 43. Texas - 7 (108) 42. Arkansas - 7 (57) 41. Nebraska - 7 (25)
The top 10 have higher population density and/or cooler weather states (except Louisiana) while the bottom 10 are low density and/or warmer weather state.
Vermont and Arizona have almost the same population density - Vermont is #11 in deaths per 1M compared to Arizona being #34 Florida and New York have very similar population density - NY being #1 in deaths vs. Florida being #24 in deaths per 1M. Texas and Washington have similar population density - Washington is #7 in deaths and Texas is #43
In each of these cases - the warmer climate state has the much fewer deaths. It doesn't always break this conveniently - but I continue to see a pretty clear pattern that population density and weather has played a significant part in the US so far.
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Post by SportyBucky on Apr 10, 2020 8:13:03 GMT -5
Any chance of exposure for team, staff or fans means no play, I fear. Of all years for this to happen, it's the year Wisconsin is in a good position to finally break Stanford, Texas, Penn State and Nebraska's glass ceiling. Grand scheme of things, it is what it is...but it'd be great for everyone, not just this WI vb fan, for covid to be a thing of the past. Not likely in my opinion, but one can hope.
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Post by SportyBucky on Apr 10, 2020 8:16:23 GMT -5
OK, but I wonder how many millions of vacationers drove, flew and bused into Florida from Rhode Island, NY, NJ and Pennsylvania between Jan and April and came home and THEN tested positive back home. hmmmm. I wonder if Florida is just ramping up as the first positive test officially was March 1. Its hard for anyone to trust Florida's stats when you have a clown like Desantis saying this: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falsely claimed Thursday that the novel coronavirus hasn't killed anyone under 25 nationwide while discussing a timeline for reopening schools in the state. Wut??? Sounds like the Governor of Georgia who shrugged his shoulders admitting he just found out asymptomatic people can transmit. smh In Florida, almost 17,000 people in the state have tested positive for the virus, with 371 people having already died. I DO REALLY REALLy hope that warm humid weather does knock this bugger down. Florida has a significant elderly population and that is worrisome. www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/09/did_ron_desantis_make_the_right_call_142905.htmlSean Trende talked about the Florida numbers in an article yesterday. Many of us have been waiting for the shoe to drop in Florida from the ~ spring break reported *bad* activity. But the evidence just isn't supporting this. It is still possible - but it sure seems less likely that Florida is going to see these kinds of problems seen in the NE. He also addresses the RI/NY,NJ hypothesis you mentioned above and claims the data doesn't support this. Trende didn't address the impact of weather in this article. The majority of the illness passed around in FL would be between those macking and frolicking with each other, not those serving drinks, right? That being the case, those frolicking and macking likely brought the virus back with them from whence they came. Lots of stories of students all infected from Cabo, Cancun, etc...and those places are equally if not more warm than FL this time of year.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 10, 2020 8:28:45 GMT -5
www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/09/did_ron_desantis_make_the_right_call_142905.htmlSean Trende talked about the Florida numbers in an article yesterday. Many of us have been waiting for the shoe to drop in Florida from the ~ spring break reported *bad* activity. But the evidence just isn't supporting this. It is still possible - but it sure seems less likely that Florida is going to see these kinds of problems seen in the NE. He also addresses the RI/NY,NJ hypothesis you mentioned above and claims the data doesn't support this. Trende didn't address the impact of weather in this article. The majority of the illness passed around in FL would be between those macking and frolicking with each other, not those serving drinks, right? That being the case, those frolicking and macking likely brought the virus back with them from whence they came. Lots of stories of students all infected from Cabo, Cancun, etc...and those places are equally if not more warm than FL this time of year. So the hotel staff, restaurant workers, public transportation workers, airport staff, etc... were immune to getting infected from the influx of people coming in via spring break? The data is showing that people living in Florida are seeing a lower instance of positive tests and death than expectations relative to the rest of the country. This isn't a comment on whether the spring break traffic was a good thing or that it had no impact - it is that there is no data to support the notion that Florida is worse off because of the spring break traffic.
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Post by winesalot on Apr 10, 2020 9:33:50 GMT -5
I really believe that looking closely at Louisiana will provide a lot of insight on Covid and its spread. It's the hardest hit warm weather state so far, but you have to factor in the role Mardi Gras played in this. Unlike spring break in Florida, the locals are a major part of the celebration. They are not only working the parades, they are a part of them. They are on the floats- catching and throwing beads.
And then there's the poverty level in Louisiana (poor nutrition, limited access to healthcare). It appears that is a major factor for the number of deaths thus far. I don't know anything about poverty in Florida, but maybe that is playing a role in the lower death rate.
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Post by n00b on Apr 10, 2020 10:30:37 GMT -5
Any chance of exposure for team, staff or fans means no play, I fear. Of all years for this to happen, it's the year Wisconsin is in a good position to finally break Stanford, Texas, Penn State and Nebraska's glass ceiling. Grand scheme of things, it is what it is...but it'd be great for everyone, not just this WI vb fan, for covid to be a thing of the past. Not likely in my opinion, but one can hope. I don’t think that can be the standard or sports will never return. Once we better understand the virus and get to the point where contracting COVID is no more dangerous than contracting the flu, then we’ll be good to go. And I think it will take only small amounts of better testing and better treatment to get to that point.
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Post by gibbyb1 on Apr 10, 2020 10:31:37 GMT -5
Any chance of exposure for team, staff or fans means no play, I fear. Of all years for this to happen, it's the year Wisconsin is in a good position to finally break Stanford, Texas, Penn State and Nebraska's glass ceiling. Grand scheme of things, it is what it is...but it'd be great for everyone, not just this WI vb fan, for covid to be a thing of the past. Not likely in my opinion, but one can hope. I don’t think that can be the standard or sports will never return. Once we better understand the virus and get to the point where contracting COVID is no more dangerous than contracting the flu, then we’ll be good to go. And I think it will take only small amounts of better testing and better treatment to get to that point. It takes a vaccine
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Post by n00b on Apr 10, 2020 10:35:36 GMT -5
I don’t think that can be the standard or sports will never return. Once we better understand the virus and get to the point where contracting COVID is no more dangerous than contracting the flu, then we’ll be good to go. And I think it will take only small amounts of better testing and better treatment to get to that point. It takes a vaccine There’s a flu vaccine. People still get the flu.
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