bluepenquin
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Posts: 12,904
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 10, 2020 10:57:03 GMT -5
I really believe that looking closely at Louisiana will provide a lot of insight on Covid and its spread. It's the hardest hit warm weather state so far, but you have to factor in the role Mardi Gras played in this. Unlike spring break in Florida, the locals are a major part of the celebration. They are not only working the parades, they are a part of them. They are on the floats- catching and throwing beads. And then there's the poverty level in Louisiana (poor nutrition, limited access to healthcare). It appears that is a major factor for the number of deaths thus far. I don't know anything about poverty in Florida, but maybe that is playing a role in the lower death rate. Mardi Gras is pretty big in Southern Mississippi with lots of parades and parties - at least from what I saw when I was in Biloxi during Mardi Gras several years ago. Mississippi has had its share of issues early on, but seems to have stabilize a bit. They rank #18 in deaths per capita as a low density population warm weather state. When talking about Florida - let us not forget that Florida has a much older population (I believe) and would be considered to be in more risk of deaths (which we haven't seen yet). Again, I am not arguing against social distancing (far from it) - I am just saying that the data seems to support that all things being equal, warmer weather is better.
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Post by badgerbreath on Apr 10, 2020 11:10:13 GMT -5
There’s a flu vaccine. People still get the flu. There are several strains of influenza, which mutate from year to year, which is why you need a new vaccine every year. They have to guess which one will predominate later in the year. Even at modest success rates, the vaccine slows the spread of the flu substantially. This virus spreads more effectively than influenza. And it is 10-fold more deadly if you get it (unless you believe those who claim it is hyper communicative and that >50 are asymptomatic - in which case the pandemic is half over already). It also doesn't mutate much. If we can get a targeted vaccine for this specific virus, it would completely change the game. It may not completely rid us of the virus, but it could come close. That said, we haven't been that good at coming up with either vaccines or treatments for viruses in this family.
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Post by badgerbreath on Apr 10, 2020 11:15:12 GMT -5
A large reason discussions about this virus go round and round and round is because we don't know enough about how many people have it and have had it. It's not even clear how many have died from it. Estimates in Italy are now saying death rate could be 4x higher based on "excess" death rate. Until we have truly widespread testing of the virus and antibodies, it's really hard to make solid predictions.
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Post by vbjustice on Apr 10, 2020 11:17:12 GMT -5
I really believe that looking closely at Louisiana will provide a lot of insight on Covid and its spread. It's the hardest hit warm weather state so far, but you have to factor in the role Mardi Gras played in this. Unlike spring break in Florida, the locals are a major part of the celebration. They are not only working the parades, they are a part of them. They are on the floats- catching and throwing beads. And then there's the poverty level in Louisiana (poor nutrition, limited access to healthcare). It appears that is a major factor for the number of deaths thus far. I don't know anything about poverty in Florida, but maybe that is playing a role in the lower death rate. Mardi Gras is pretty big in Southern Mississippi with lots of parades and parties - at least from what I saw when I was in Biloxi during Mardi Gras several years ago. Mississippi has had its share of issues early on, but seems to have stabilize a bit. They rank #18 in deaths per capita as a low density population warm weather state. When talking about Florida - let us not forget that Florida has a much older population (I believe) and would be considered to be in more risk of deaths (which we haven't seen yet). Again, I am not arguing against social distancing (far from it) - I am just saying that the data seems to support that all things being equal, warmer weather is better. The data? Can’t trust the data. Too early to tell. Also it’s summer in many places around the world where the virus is spreading.
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Post by SportyBucky on Apr 10, 2020 11:53:29 GMT -5
The majority of the illness passed around in FL would be between those macking and frolicking with each other, not those serving drinks, right? That being the case, those frolicking and macking likely brought the virus back with them from whence they came. Lots of stories of students all infected from Cabo, Cancun, etc...and those places are equally if not more warm than FL this time of year. So the hotel staff, restaurant workers, public transportation workers, airport staff, etc... were immune to getting infected from the influx of people coming in via spring break? The data is showing that people living in Florida are seeing a lower instance of positive tests and death than expectations relative to the rest of the country. This isn't a comment on whether the spring break traffic was a good thing or that it had no impact - it is that there is no data to support the notion that Florida is worse off because of the spring break traffic. Not immune? Did I say that? WTF. Are you more or less likely to get covid if you're (1) handing a key to someone; or, (2) making out with someone?
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Post by akbar on Apr 10, 2020 11:57:26 GMT -5
So the hotel staff, restaurant workers, public transportation workers, airport staff, etc... were immune to getting infected from the influx of people coming in via spring break? The data is showing that people living in Florida are seeing a lower instance of positive tests and death than expectations relative to the rest of the country. This isn't a comment on whether the spring break traffic was a good thing or that it had no impact - it is that there is no data to support the notion that Florida is worse off because of the spring break traffic. Not immune? Did I say that? WTF. Are you more or less likely to get covid if you're (1) handing a key to someone; or, (2) making out with someone? You better have DATA if your going to asked Blue this question. hahahahahhahaha. sidenote....I hope you are well and safe Sporty....and hope the season goes on. Wisconsin is going to be really good.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 10, 2020 11:58:20 GMT -5
I first questioned here about herd immunity and its potential, and was dismissed pretty quickly. Again, I’m not a public health expert nor do I have a strong opinion either way. But I do think it’s an interesting idea to look at. Especially given I live in California and was working daily with Chinese travelers. abc7.com/health/were-californians-exposed-to-coronavirus-last-year/6091220/
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Post by bigjohn043 on Apr 10, 2020 12:06:23 GMT -5
I understand that the numbers you gave are real numbers. However, your conjectures about how much lives the economic shutdown will cost aren't backed with data. Contrary to what you seem to think, crime has actually dropped in most cities during the past few weeks of lockdown. I'm not sure how other metrics have changed, but again, I guarantee that the people deciding the policy have studied the situation more than you or me. That's the reason they're deciding policy instead of a bunch of people on a volleyball forum. If you have examples of statistics changing to the negative or different estimates of deaths that will occur because of the lockdown, please let me know. Otherwise, don't just assert things that you haven't backed up so far.
The truth is that all of the models are garbage. They have shown zero ability to predict anything because we have no idea what the basic inputs are: 1) We don't know the basic characteristics of the disease: r-naught and the case fatality rate. Estimates of these vary by a factor of 10. 2) We have no idea what the impact of various forms of social distancing are. There are literally no scientific studies of the impacts of social distancing of the types we are trying. We have no idea how effective stay at home orders, travel bans, wearing face masks or just washing our hands are. They put estimates into the model but they are totally made up. Then when the model doesn't match reality they change them but how do we know if the model is getting wrong the social distancing or the characteristics of the disease. We have no idea. 3) We have never locked down full countries like this before so we have no idea what the fall out will be. We do know that whatever we estimate will be wrong and won't fully understand knock on effects like suicide because it has never happened. What we do know is that people are dying and we are totally destroying our economy. My concern is the people making decisions like Dr. Faucci know a lot about the health side but nothing about the economic side. The doctors can't figure out basic things like if we should be wearing masks. That should tell you how much they know. The doctors are making the decisions and that is scary.
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Post by cindra on Apr 10, 2020 12:06:49 GMT -5
I first questioned here about herd immunity and its potential, and was dismissed pretty quickly. Again, I’m not a public health expert nor do I have a strong opinion either way. But I do think it’s an interesting idea to look at. Especially given I live in California and was working daily with Chinese travelers. abc7.com/health/were-californians-exposed-to-coronavirus-last-year/6091220/a) there's a difference between herd immunity happening over time and the attempts to force it that the British government was attempting. Developing slowly over time in CA is different from unchecked exponential spread now. b) they're only researching it. no evidence is out one way or the other, it's just one of many theories as to why CA isn't affected as bad.
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Post by cindra on Apr 10, 2020 12:10:27 GMT -5
The truth is that all of the models are garbage. They have shown zero ability to predict anything because we have no idea what the basic inputs are: 1) We don't know the basic characteristics of the disease: r-naught and the case fatality rate. Estimates of these vary by a factor of 10. 2) We have no idea what the impact of various forms of social distancing are. There are literally no scientific studies of the impacts of social distancing of the types we are trying. We have no idea how effective stay at home orders, travel bans, wearing face masks or just washing our hands are. They put estimates into the model but they are totally made up. Then when the model doesn't match reality they change them but how do we know if the model is getting wrong the social distancing or the characteristics of the disease. We have no idea. 3) We have never locked down full countries like this before so we have no idea what the fall out will be. We do know that whatever we estimate will be wrong and won't fully understand knock on effects like suicide because it has never happened. What we do know is that people are dying and we are totally destroying our economy. My concern is the people making decisions like Dr. Faucci know a lot about the health side but nothing about the economic side. The doctors can't figure out basic things like if we should be wearing masks. That should tell you how much they know. The doctors are making the decisions and that is scary. I've said it before, I'll say it again: there are economists and other non-medical officials on the response team. Treasury secretary, NEC head, OMB director. It's not like Fauci is making policy alone. There's input from the economists, but they clearly think the shutdown is acceptable to save lives.
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Post by akbar on Apr 10, 2020 12:10:57 GMT -5
I first questioned here about herd immunity and its potential, and was dismissed pretty quickly. Again, I’m not a public health expert nor do I have a strong opinion either way. But I do think it’s an interesting idea to look at. Especially given I live in California and was working daily with Chinese travelers. abc7.com/health/were-californians-exposed-to-coronavirus-last-year/6091220/It's a possible theory and has merit, but lets keep it relative to time and the article you posted doesnt say when....and uses the BOLD LAST YEAR headline. So in essence, we may have to back our timeline up from early Jan , to December and now to November 17 which I found in another article. We don't know if this is true at all but as a few posters have mentioned this is a fluid situatuon, the data is ever evolving AND it will probably years before we have a firm grasp on how it all went down. Massive Testing in the state may significantly bolster this theory to see if people have had it
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Post by bigjohn043 on Apr 10, 2020 12:21:37 GMT -5
The truth is that all of the models are garbage. They have shown zero ability to predict anything because we have no idea what the basic inputs are: 1) We don't know the basic characteristics of the disease: r-naught and the case fatality rate. Estimates of these vary by a factor of 10. 2) We have no idea what the impact of various forms of social distancing are. There are literally no scientific studies of the impacts of social distancing of the types we are trying. We have no idea how effective stay at home orders, travel bans, wearing face masks or just washing our hands are. They put estimates into the model but they are totally made up. Then when the model doesn't match reality they change them but how do we know if the model is getting wrong the social distancing or the characteristics of the disease. We have no idea. 3) We have never locked down full countries like this before so we have no idea what the fall out will be. We do know that whatever we estimate will be wrong and won't fully understand knock on effects like suicide because it has never happened. What we do know is that people are dying and we are totally destroying our economy. My concern is the people making decisions like Dr. Faucci know a lot about the health side but nothing about the economic side. The doctors can't figure out basic things like if we should be wearing masks. That should tell you how much they know. The doctors are making the decisions and that is scary. I've said it before, I'll say it again: there are economists and other non-medical officials on the response team. Treasury secretary, NEC head, OMB director. It's not like Fauci is making policy alone. There's input from the economists, but they clearly think the shutdown is acceptable to save lives. Really? If we opened up (in some form) on Easter and Dr. Faucci disagreed publically what would happen? On the other hand, if Steven Munichin came out and said we should really be opening at least some things on Easter would anything change? I know the formalities but who is really in charge here?
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Post by cindra on Apr 10, 2020 12:27:26 GMT -5
I've said it before, I'll say it again: there are economists and other non-medical officials on the response team. Treasury secretary, NEC head, OMB director. It's not like Fauci is making policy alone. There's input from the economists, but they clearly think the shutdown is acceptable to save lives. Really? If we opened up (in some form) on Easter and Dr. Faucci disagreed publically what would happen? On the other hand, if Steven Munichin came out and said we should really be opening at least some things on Easter would anything change? I know the formalities but who is really in charge here? Here's the thing: he didn't say that, because getting a bunch of people sick isn't sound economic policy. The main guy saying we should open up is the president, who just wants the markets back up. That and armchair economists who don't know about infectious disease. Mnuchin said yesterday that it's gonna be May at the earliest.
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Post by n00b on Apr 10, 2020 13:23:51 GMT -5
Really? If we opened up (in some form) on Easter and Dr. Faucci disagreed publically what would happen? On the other hand, if Steven Munichin came out and said we should really be opening at least some things on Easter would anything change? I know the formalities but who is really in charge here? In charge are the 50 governors. If South Dakota opened on Monday and things went well, their governor would be a 2024 presidential candidate. If things went poorly, they'd get voted out of office next time around. Medical professionals aren't in charge. Economists aren't in charge. This is why we have a representative government. The executive branches of both state and federal government take recommendations (often conflicting) and make a decision for their constituents. If their actions make people believe they're incompetent, they get voted out. That's how it works.
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Post by mikegarrison on Apr 10, 2020 14:44:36 GMT -5
Not immune? Did I say that? WTF. Are you more or less likely to get covid if you're (1) handing a key to someone; or, (2) making out with someone? You better have DATA if your going to asked Blue this question. hahahahahhahaha. sidenote....I hope you are well and safe Sporty....and hope the season goes on. Wisconsin is going to be really good. I am willing to make the sacrifice and make out with many college girls in order to gather that data.
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