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Post by volleyballjim on Mar 21, 2020 19:01:24 GMT -5
As I suspended my RSVP's for Main Beach during our county "shelter-in-place", it goes one in numbers elsewhere. Courts are going strong in iconic Santa Cruz while the nets are being removed, court-by-court, in Santa Monica, Hermosa, and elsewhere. Travis just wrote an article alluding to "overreaction", so thought I'd throw out the "do I play or do I go" out to our eclectic audience and "let it fly" . . .
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Post by guest2 on Mar 21, 2020 19:52:47 GMT -5
As I suspended my RSVP's for Main Beach during our county "shelter-in-place", it goes one in numbers elsewhere. Courts are going strong in iconic Santa Cruz while the nets are being removed, court-by-court, in Santa Monica, Hermosa, and elsewhere. Travis just wrote an article alluding to "overreaction", so thought I'd throw out the "do I play or do I go" out to our eclectic audience and "let it fly" . . . In case anyone ever wondered whether Travis' inclination to stretch or simply misstate facts to make them suit the story he wants to write were limited to volleyball that rant should clear it up. As to playing now, why risk it? Why not wait a few weeks and see what happens?
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Post by volleyballjim on Mar 21, 2020 19:56:24 GMT -5
As I suspended my RSVP's for Main Beach during our county "shelter-in-place", it goes one in numbers elsewhere. Courts are going strong in iconic Santa Cruz while the nets are being removed, court-by-court, in Santa Monica, Hermosa, and elsewhere. Travis just wrote an article alluding to "overreaction", so thought I'd throw out the "do I play or do I go" out to our eclectic audience and "let it fly" . . . In case anyone ever wondered whether Travis' inclination to stretch or simply misstate facts to make them suit the story he wants to write were limited to volleyball that rant should clear it up. As to playing now, why risk it? Why not wait a few weeks and see what happens? Exactly, guest2! I mean, 2 weeks and THEN we'll listen to your opinions on shelter-in-place, but the Italy graph is compelling on how it parallels us (or rather, we parallel them). I COMPLETELY enjoy Travis as I'm not very technical in the analysis like you heavy hitters, but when he posted that COV-19 stuff, I'm like, really? I'm playing volleyball with a micrologist (he is the "go to guy" if you're poised by mushrooms; he invented the "solution" and is called in all over the globe when it occurs). You should see his face when I "talk about his field (Medicine). He would have a field day with Travis' article, I am sure.
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Post by somethinbruin on Mar 21, 2020 23:59:17 GMT -5
In case anyone ever wondered whether Travis' inclination to stretch or simply misstate facts to make them suit the story he wants to write were limited to volleyball that rant should clear it up. As to playing now, why risk it? Why not wait a few weeks and see what happens? Exactly, guest2! I mean, 2 weeks and THEN we'll listen to your opinions on shelter-in-place, but the Italy graph is compelling on how it parallels us (or rather, we parallel them). I COMPLETELY enjoy Travis as I'm not very technical in the analysis like you heavy hitters, but when he posted that COV-19 stuff, I'm like, really? I'm playing volleyball with a micrologist (he is the "go to guy" if you're poised by mushrooms; he invented the "solution" and is called in all over the globe when it occurs). You should see his face when I "talk about his field (Medicine). He would have a field day with Travis' article, I am sure. I tend to enjoy Travis' writing when I come across it, but hoo boy is he dead wrong in that post. He may have a journalism degree, but he clearly hasn't taken a class on science writing, statistics, and data interpretation in journalism (when I was in j-school it was a standard part of the curriculum). Yikes, that's just an incredibly bad take on his part.
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Post by hustleslowly on Mar 22, 2020 0:33:35 GMT -5
Not a fan of his article either. I'd consider going down during the week to do drills by myself, but playing? That's a no.
And I hate when people compare this to things like driving. They're completely different.
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Post by sonofdogman on Mar 22, 2020 1:14:07 GMT -5
It may be Travis' most well-written article. Shame it is so ridiculously out of touch.
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Post by Guest3 on Mar 22, 2020 1:31:46 GMT -5
Wouldn’t it depend whom your playing with? We are in a shelter in place situation but I have a court in my yard. I invite the same 3 people daily that are also sheltering.
I have 2 friends that have corona virus in different parts of the country and their docs all said the same thing. First, this has been going around since Dec and most thought the had the flu. Second, everyone...and they mean everyone is going to get it or has already been in contact with it. Now, they are finding people that just have allergy symptoms like my friend in South Carolina actually have corona virus. It’s morphing. You don’t need a fever or even a headache. Some itchy eyes and some coughing and bam; my buddy has it.
So, if you’re at an at risk category I’d keep my butt home and be careful. We are at home and careful but the hysteria is out of control. The doc is so Carolina said his entire staff had it in Jan after dealing with a patient they thought had the flu in dec but kept testing negative for flu. Now, they know what it was.
An economic collapse and what’s going on now is nuts. Last year, 45 million people got the flu. 61,000 died. Where was the hysteria? For most people (95%) the doctors said this is nothing much more than that. Soon, 95% will have built up immunity to this. According to 2 different sets of docs in 2 different parts of the country
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mike1
Sophomore
Posts: 168
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Post by mike1 on Mar 22, 2020 5:31:44 GMT -5
Not a fan of his article either. I'd consider going down during the week to do drills by myself, but playing? That's a no. And I hate when people compare this to things like driving. They're completely different. Can someone post a link to Travis's article?
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Post by hustleslowly on Mar 22, 2020 9:52:01 GMT -5
Wouldn’t it depend whom your playing with? We are in a shelter in place situation but I have a court in my yard. I invite the same 3 people daily that are also sheltering. I have 2 friends that have corona virus in different parts of the country and their docs all said the same thing. First, this has been going around since Dec and most thought the had the flu. Second, everyone...and they mean everyone is going to get it or has already been in contact with it. Now, they are finding people that just have allergy symptoms like my friend in South Carolina actually have corona virus. It’s morphing. You don’t need a fever or even a headache. Some itchy eyes and some coughing and bam; my buddy has it. So, if you’re at an at risk category I’d keep my butt home and be careful. We are at home and careful but the hysteria is out of control. The doc is so Carolina said his entire staff had it in Jan after dealing with a patient they thought had the flu in dec but kept testing negative for flu. Now, they know what it was. An economic collapse and what’s going on now is nuts. Last year, 45 million people got the flu. 61,000 died. Where was the hysteria? For most people (95%) the doctors said this is nothing much more than that. Soon, 95% will have built up immunity to this. According to 2 different sets of docs in 2 different parts of the country Games at home are different than games at the beach with big groups around. This is 2-3 times easier to catch and deadlier than the flu. Take your 45 million figure, even just multiply by 1.5 instead of 2-3 and then use a death rate of 1.4%. We're at approx 67.5 million people get it and almost 1 million deaths. This also has a higher hospitalization rate than the flu as well, which strains those services.
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Post by hustleslowly on Mar 22, 2020 9:53:20 GMT -5
Not a fan of his article either. I'd consider going down during the week to do drills by myself, but playing? That's a no. And I hate when people compare this to things like driving. They're completely different. Can someone post a link to Travis's article? www.sandcastvolleyball.com/stop-the-panic/
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Post by ajm on Mar 22, 2020 11:15:46 GMT -5
Ugh. I love his writing, but this is one Travis probably shouldn’t mention in future job interviews.
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mike1
Sophomore
Posts: 168
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Post by mike1 on Mar 22, 2020 11:35:32 GMT -5
Thanks! From someone who is an actual writer (and usually a very good one), I have never read a worse article in my life. It is completely out of touch. It fails to consider several critical factors, including: 1. Unfortunately, we are still in the early stage of "the curve." 300,000 is not the final number. It is the number as of today, and there are more new cases each day than the number of new cases the previous day, even as some areas are running low on tests. 2. It could severely impact even the young and healthy people. In my area, a 30-something year-end is in an ICU. 3. Even if it is a low risk to impact you significantly personally, it can impact those around you. Everyone has someone in their lives - family, friend, neighbor - who is older and/or has a compromised immune system. If you get it, you could unknowingly pass it on to them, which could have severe consequences. 4. There are other side effects of the number of people visiting doctors and hospitals with the virus. Hospitals are short on supplies, beds, and medical professionals. I was told by someone in Germany that when someone has a heart attack, there may not be room for them in their closest hospital, so they have to drive them dozens of kilometers away to another hospital, and by then, it may be too late. So, it is impacting everyone who needs medical attention, as well as putting medical professionals at risk. If everyone in the country (ideally, the world) bore down and sacrificed for weeks today, everyone's health and safety would be better today, and we could all return to our normal lives much sooner. By people like Travis living in denial, this could (and likely will) drag out for months. Ugh!
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Post by 405LAX on Mar 22, 2020 11:36:06 GMT -5
Wouldn’t it depend whom your playing with? We are in a shelter in place situation but I have a court in my yard. I invite the same 3 people daily that are also sheltering. I have 2 friends that have corona virus in different parts of the country and their docs all said the same thing. First, this has been going around since Dec and most thought the had the flu. Second, everyone...and they mean everyone is going to get it or has already been in contact with it. Now, they are finding people that just have allergy symptoms like my friend in South Carolina actually have corona virus. It’s morphing. You don’t need a fever or even a headache. Some itchy eyes and some coughing and bam; my buddy has it. So, if you’re at an at risk category I’d keep my butt home and be careful. We are at home and careful but the hysteria is out of control. The doc is so Carolina said his entire staff had it in Jan after dealing with a patient they thought had the flu in dec but kept testing negative for flu. Now, they know what it was. An economic collapse and what’s going on now is nuts. Last year, 45 million people got the flu. 61,000 died. Where was the hysteria? For most people (95%) the doctors said this is nothing much more than that. Soon, 95% will have built up immunity to this. According to 2 different sets of docs in 2 different parts of the country This post is the best of this thread, what's about to happen next is far worse than our decision to shut this world down, 2008 will look like an economic boom.
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Post by guest2 on Mar 22, 2020 11:56:00 GMT -5
Thanks! From someone who is an actual writer (and usually a very good one), I have never read a worse article in my life. It is completely out of touch. It fails to consider several critical factors, including: 1. Unfortunately, we are still in the early stage of "the curve." 300,000 is not the final number. It is the number as of today, and there are more new cases each day than the number of new cases the previous day, even as some areas are running low on tests. 2. It could severely impact even the young and healthy people. In my area, a 30-something year-end is in an ICU. 3. Even if it is a low risk to impact you significantly personally, it can impact those around you. Everyone has someone in their lives - family, friend, neighbor - who is older and/or has a compromised immune system. If you get it, you could unknowingly pass it on to them, which could have severe consequences. 4. There are other side effects of the number of people visiting doctors and hospitals with the virus. Hospitals are short on supplies, beds, and medical professionals. I was told by someone in Germany that when someone has a heart attack, there may not be room for them in their closest hospital, so they have to drive them dozens of kilometers away to another hospital, and by then, it may be too late. So, it is impacting everyone who needs medical attention, as well as putting medical professionals at risk. If everyone in the country (ideally, the world) bore down and sacrificed for weeks today, everyone's health and safety would be better today, and we could all return to our normal lives much sooner. By people like Travis living in denial, this could (and likely will) drag out for months. Ugh! Also that government shutdown or no, the luxury outing type places - restaurants, yoga etc. would be going under, it would just be a slightly slower process (slightly). The idea that absent a government shutdown people would be patronizing these types of businesses as usual is delusional
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Post by volleyballjim on Mar 22, 2020 13:00:39 GMT -5
A couple of things:
- Travis' "It can only do much". That's an interesting "belief" when you look a the data. Some are definitely handling this crisis better than others, but the "J-curves" don't corroborate that "belief". It IS a "J-curve" and the end point is not in sight, by any means. Our parallel to Italy’s disturbing growth should be of concern; we can see the future in Italy and it is US. FLATTEN the curve was never mentioned in his article. That is what the isolation is about. With optimism on “only doing so much”, there is an added belief that, during this pandemic, we will be able to cover the medical needs as the outbreak ramps up; medical professionals do not concur with that “belief”, we do NOT have adequate supplies or personnel as this ramps up.
- Economy & Stock Market Crisis - If one didn't think a crash (prior to COV-19) was coming, they were not paying close attention to people who follow the financial markets very closely. My "hypothesis" (yes, I agree this is MY belief) is that Trump, being at the helm of this, caused a SIGNFICANT amount of market worry. His behavior didn’t bother anyone during the rise from Obama's 19,804 the day before he took office, until THIS crisis, arguably the catalyst for this meltdown which now stands a bit behind 19,174, which, based on my assessment of Mr. Trump, bothers him more than anything else (again, MY belief). His compassion has been on trial many times and the jury “has returned a verdit”; if you’re unaware of it, then you might look at the definition of “confirmation bias”.
The risk when I drive on the 405! Well, if you don’t think science is behind your highly improbable demise at the wheel, look at statistics before seat belts, auto design and air bags. What if the death rate had the probably of following a “J-curve” in REVERSE? Would you as easily turn the ignition on? What if deaths were doubling every day, tripling days later, quadrupling later than that…
“I still have the choice to do all of those things, dangerous or not”. Yes, in THIS current democracy, you do. But the actions of a few have far reaching impacts on the many. And there are countless examples where individual liberties are restricted for the safety of society. Look at restrictions on our constitutional right to free speach such thay you cannot yell "Fire" malisciously in a crowded space. So, be glad you have the “choice”, but that choice was garnered by people doing the right thing, many moons ago.
Back to that “choice to do all of these things” (taking known risks)…Since one can be asymptomatic (no symptoms, yet carrying virus) for SEVEN DAYS prior (as opposed to the flu that can be transmitted only a day or hours before symptoms manifest), what is the best response to someone whom you, “accidentally infect”? My bad? Remember, you cannot possibly know you are carrying the disease during this time of “limited tests”, again, thanks to the (in my opinon, again) ill-prepared president during the early evolution of this crisis. Current data indicate that we are all at risk. This is not a risk to only the elderly and infirm. In many countries further along in the outbreak than the US, a significant portion of the affected population is otherwise young and healthy. So choices here matter. They not only risk infection of the people taking those risks, but they risk all of the people they then come into contact with, which leads to exponential spread. There are a number of easily accessible images online that demonstrate that phenomenon clearly.
Furthermore, there is the important point of messaging and perception. While you may feel that your specific activities are relatively low risk for contracting coronavirus, (I have read in the CDC that this is not the “normal mode of transmission”, but it IS a viable one), the more people are out visibly socializing with others in defiance of recommendations of state and federal officials, scientists, and world health experts, the more it downplays the severity of the situation. We currently struggle with consistent messaging to encourage people to take this pandemic seriously. People are more likely to take the recommended steps to protect themselves and there community if they feel supported in the sacrifices they make.
There is so much more one can assail in this article, but my premise is to look to unbiased scientists and health professionals on how to keep this unknown coronavirus in check at this early point in its travels.
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