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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 10, 2020 15:16:12 GMT -5
if you had to put the Tokyo field into tiers in terms of ability to win the gold/reach the medal round what would you do China Serbia Italy USA Brazil Russia (kind of a wild card. Up one or down one pending form) Turkey Korea DR Japan Argentina Kenya
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2020 15:18:10 GMT -5
if you had to put the Tokyo field into tiers in terms of ability to win the gold/reach the medal round what would you do China Serbia Italy USA Brazil Russia (kind of a wild card. Up one or down one pending form) Turkey Korea DR Japan Argentina Kenya This was pretty much my list in my mind but I had Turkey above Russia. Also wasn't sure about Japan, I don't know much about their team.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Aug 10, 2020 15:25:55 GMT -5
My hopes that Japan fails keep getting validated! Yay!
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Post by donut on Aug 10, 2020 15:32:44 GMT -5
if you had to put the Tokyo field into tiers in terms of ability to win the gold/reach the medal round what would you do Quickly and making a few guesses considering we really haven't seen these teams play in ~1 year? Tier 1: China, Italy, Serbia Tier 2: USA Tier 3: Turkey, Brazil Tier 4: Russia, Japan, South Korea, Dominican Republic Tier 5: Argentina, Kenya Maybe move Brazil down, and divide Tier 4 into 2 tiers? Russia, Japan and Brazil on the new Tier 4, and South Korea and the Dominican Republic on the new Tier 5. Edit: Didn't see c4ndle's before posting this.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 10, 2020 15:54:57 GMT -5
China Serbia Italy USA Brazil Russia (kind of a wild card. Up one or down one pending form) Turkey Korea DR Japan Argentina Kenya This was pretty much my list in my mind but I had Turkey above Russia. Also wasn't sure about Japan, I don't know much about their team. Japan will be entertaining for sure, but they don't have it to win two consecutive matches against good teams. Maybe not even one. I see people doubting Russia. But you have to respect their ceiling with Gonch getting some time off to refresh. I also suspect they'll be one of the mentally stronger outfits going into the games.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2020 16:04:22 GMT -5
This was pretty much my list in my mind but I had Turkey above Russia. Also wasn't sure about Japan, I don't know much about their team. Japan will be entertaining for sure, but they don't have it to win two consecutive matches against good teams. Maybe not even one. I see people doubting Russia. But you have to respect their ceiling with Gonch getting some time off to refresh. I also suspect they'll be one of the mentally stronger outfits going into the games. That's one thing that brings doubt to me and Turkey. I really like Turkey... but they haven't been on this stage since 2012(?) and only a couple of players played then (?). Their mental toughness will be tested I could see Russia being above them
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 10, 2020 16:05:32 GMT -5
Japan will be entertaining for sure, but they don't have it to win two consecutive matches against good teams. Maybe not even one. I see people doubting Russia. But you have to respect their ceiling with Gonch getting some time off to refresh. I also suspect they'll be one of the mentally stronger outfits going into the games. That's one thing that brings doubt to me and Turkey. I really like Turkey... but they haven't been on this stage since 2012(?) and only a couple of players played then (?). Their mental toughness will be tested I could see Russia being above them I mean, Turkey showed a lot of mental toughness just to qualify. I just think they over performed to qualify. Piece-by-piece they are trailing the other teams - I particularly don't think they have the horses on the pins. Boz played out of her goddamned mind to drag Turkey into the Olympics and that's hard to replicate over a full tournament.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Aug 10, 2020 16:13:09 GMT -5
That's one thing that brings doubt to me and Turkey. I really like Turkey... but they haven't been on this stage since 2012(?) and only a couple of players played then (?). Their mental toughness will be tested I could see Russia being above them I mean, Turkey showed a lot of mental toughness just to qualify. I just think they over performed to qualify. Piece-by-piece they are trailing the other teams - I particularly don't think they have the horses on the pins. Boz played out of her goddamned mind to drag Turkey into the Olympics and that's hard to replicate over a full tournament. 36 points? Just... how?! I could not imagine being the coach on the opposite side.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 10, 2020 16:14:57 GMT -5
I mean, Turkey showed a lot of mental toughness just to qualify. I just think they over performed to qualify. Piece-by-piece they are trailing the other teams - I particularly don't think they have the horses on the pins. Boz played out of her goddamned mind to drag Turkey into the Olympics and that's hard to replicate over a full tournament. 36 points? Just... how?! I could not imagine being the coach on the opposite side. The blue hair! lol but kudos to her for playing the match of her life in the most important match of her life. And she gave Eda's back a break carrying the team. You also have to genuflect at the magic of Guidetti too. I still think Poland qualifies if (a) Stysiak gets 12 more months to develop or (b) Skorupa is setting them (<--I know that'll be the controversial opinion).
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Post by speegs13 on Aug 10, 2020 16:20:33 GMT -5
Russia has a very solid starting seven -- it's their bench that worries me (especially on the pins).
The pool-play match against Turkey scares me in all honesty. It seems to be a grind everytime the US plays against them.
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Post by jwvolley on Aug 10, 2020 16:31:25 GMT -5
36 points? Just... how?! I could not imagine being the coach on the opposite side. The blue hair! lol but kudos to her for playing the match of her life in the most important match of her life. And she gave Eda's back a break carrying the team. You also have to genuflect at the magic of Guidetti too. I still think Poland qualifies if (a) Stysiak gets 12 more months to develop or (b) Skorupa is setting them (<--I know that'll be the controversial opinion). C. if Smarzek put down any of those match point swings lol.
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Post by donut on Aug 10, 2020 16:31:51 GMT -5
Looking at the pools...
Projected pool finish: Pool A: 1. Serbia 2. Brazil 3. Japan/Dom. Republic/SK 4. Japan/Dom. Republic/SK
**I think South Korea falls short.
Pool B: 1. Italy/China 2. Italy/China 3. USA 4. Russia/Turkey
**I would take Turkey over Russia.
Brazil benefits heavily from Pool A. USA-Brazil quarterfinals could be close, so I'd say Brazil has the 5th best chance of making it to the medal rounds (which lines up with c4ndle's tiers). I just don't see Japan or Dominican Republic really challenging Italy or China. Based on past performance, Turkey could give Serbia some trouble, but I would be shocked if Italy, Serbia and China aren't all in the semis.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Aug 10, 2020 16:39:31 GMT -5
The best path to the semifinals is really to finish atop Pool B. Any other result in either pool looks potentially more challenging. I think the 4th place team from Pool A will likely not be Brazil or Serbia. That means most likely JPN/KOR/DOM. Serbia winning Pool A has to be the most likely outcome for any team to win their Pool, but getting the #4 team from the difficult Pool hasn't been a good thing in recent history
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Post by donut on Aug 10, 2020 16:45:57 GMT -5
Serbia winning Pool A has to be the most likely outcome for any team to win their Pool, but getting the #4 team from the difficult Pool hasn't been a good thing in recent history #tbt
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Post by ToddyJ on Aug 10, 2020 17:17:37 GMT -5
It might be better to finish 2/3 in Pool A than 1st, and pray that the volleyball gods pair 2A-3A together. I didn't think teams from the same preliminary pool could cross in the quarterfinals. 2A will cross either 2B or 3B and 2B will cross either 2A or 3A. Am I wrong? If so when did this ever occur?
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