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Post by ToddyJ on Aug 10, 2020 17:35:36 GMT -5
if you had to put the Tokyo field into tiers in terms of ability to win the gold/reach the medal round what would you do I am in the minority as of late but I think it is entirely possible that the USA ends up second or even top of Pool B like they have the past two Olympic Games. They always over perform in pool play and fail to deliver when it's crunch time. Perhaps this time will be different? Maybe they shock us all and storm their way from 4th in Pool B all the way to a gold like Brazil and China did in 2012 and 2016 respectively. Like you...I too think Turkey is underrated. Look at what Guidetti did with Netherlands at Rio. They almost went undefeated in pool play narrowly loosing to USA in 5 sets on day two. With each passing year players like Ozbay, Gunes, Karakurt, Baladin, Akman and Akoz get better and better. Russia and Brazil are two teams that have really struggled this quad. However with Brazil's vets still in the picture and returning to form post pregnancy and injury, anything is possible. Russia has not utilized the one two punch of Kosheleva and Goncharova since 2017, same with Natalia and Tandara for Brazil. That being said my tiers are as follows: China Serbia Italy USA Turkey Brazil Russia ******* Dominican Republic South Korea Japan Argentina Kenya *= Below that line are teams that have very little to no chance of making the medal rounds. Pending roster choices and health I would toss USA in the top tier and bump Russia and Brazil up into the middle tier.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,104
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Post by trojansc on Aug 10, 2020 17:45:20 GMT -5
It might be better to finish 2/3 in Pool A than 1st, and pray that the volleyball gods pair 2A-3A together. I didn't think teams from the same preliminary pool could cross in the quarterfinals. 2A will cross either 2B or 3B and 2B will cross either 2A or 3A. Am I wrong? If so when did this ever occur? It's never happened and you're right, it won't in 2021 either. My brain was doing too much trying to see how Japan could benefit from the 'system' yet again. "The first ranked teams of both pools will play against the fourth ranked teams of the other pool. The second ranked teams face the second or third ranked teams of the other pool, determined by drawing of lots."
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Post by reformate on Aug 10, 2020 19:52:26 GMT -5
This was pretty much my list in my mind but I had Turkey above Russia. Also wasn't sure about Japan, I don't know much about their team. Japan will be entertaining for sure, but they don't have it to win two consecutive matches against good teams. Maybe not even one. I see people doubting Russia. But you have to respect their ceiling with Gonch getting some time off to refresh. I also suspect they'll be one of the mentally stronger outfits going into the games. Russia is a tricky one, because we haven't seen how the new coach will utilize Kosheleva. Will he prioritize the fluidity of Voronkova-Parubets or the value of Kosheleva's offense? Cumulative stats from WGP 2016 to COQT 2020: SPIKING 29.8% Kosheleva (333-106/762) 24.8% Voronkova (708-285/1704) 22.3% Parubets (745-323/1896) BLOCKING -17.0% Parubets (64-119/321) -18.3% Kosheleva (31-54/126) -24.9% Voronkova (48-128/322) SERVING +0.9% Kosheleva (25-22/329) -3.3% Parubets (53-82/881) -5.4% Voronkova (65-113/882) DIGGING 83.4% Voronkova (1-75/453) 80.6% Parubets (1-103/531) 76.6% Kosheleva (1-58/248) RECEIVING 19.6% Parubets (367-103/1344) 16.5% Kosheleva (31-14/103) 15.1% Voronkova (228-72/1035) Only around a hundred attempts by Kosheleva since 2016! The two-man reception of Shcherban and Malova worked since they had pretty good receiving stats (Shcherban at 21.7%, Malova at 29.8%). Not sure if Russia can repeat the success of this reception system with Parubets and Voronkova's stats.
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Post by werka on Aug 10, 2020 22:40:04 GMT -5
Serbia winning Pool A has to be the most likely outcome for any team to win their Pool, but getting the #4 team from the difficult Pool hasn't been a good thing in recent history #tbt Gotta love the 1A-4B matches. Here's me secretly hoping USA gets 4B and eventually whips Serbia, as what history wishes on repeating.
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Post by werka on Aug 10, 2020 22:42:28 GMT -5
Y'all think larson, hill and akinradewo will surrender just like that? I believe they will give everything to win this time. But i still prefer bartsch-Hill-Drews trio if you want to match it with the big guns like Serbia and china. I keep saying Hill-Bartsch-Drews happening will be USA's best chance at gold.
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Post by werka on Aug 10, 2020 22:45:12 GMT -5
if you had to put the Tokyo field into tiers in terms of ability to win the gold/reach the medal round what would you do Tier 1: USA, China, Italy, Serbia Tier 2: Turkey, Brazil - high medal probability- Tier 3: Russia Tier 4: South Korea, Japan, Dominican Republic -dark horses- Tier 5: Argentina, Kenya -whack-
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