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Post by guest2 on Aug 2, 2020 13:04:18 GMT -5
The trouble with this as a stat is it doesn't take into account what happens when a ball is not killed or hit out. Massive difference between a great hit that is stabbed up and brings a free ball back to the attacker and a roll shot right to the defender, that is basically a free ball to the defensive team. This isnt a huge consideration indoors, but its a key distinction in the beach game.
Id like to see some rating on balls that are blocked or dug and how they are blocked or dug - i.e. easy soft block right back to attacker versus near roof etc.
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mati
Sophomore
Posts: 125
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Post by mati on Aug 2, 2020 17:05:57 GMT -5
The trouble with this as a stat is it doesn't take into account what happens when a ball is not killed or hit out. Massive difference between a great hit that is stabbed up and brings a free ball back to the attacker and a roll shot right to the defender, that is basically a free ball to the defensive team. This isnt a huge consideration indoors, but its a key distinction in the beach game. Id like to see some rating on balls that are blocked or dug and how they are blocked or dug - i.e. easy soft block right back to attacker versus near roof etc. You could have a hitter rating and rate each swing based on the result. 0 error 1 Broken Play on Other Side 2 In System play on other side 3 Kill Player gets the average of all swings.
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Post by guest2 on Aug 2, 2020 17:16:54 GMT -5
The trouble with this as a stat is it doesn't take into account what happens when a ball is not killed or hit out. Massive difference between a great hit that is stabbed up and brings a free ball back to the attacker and a roll shot right to the defender, that is basically a free ball to the defensive team. This isnt a huge consideration indoors, but its a key distinction in the beach game. Id like to see some rating on balls that are blocked or dug and how they are blocked or dug - i.e. easy soft block right back to attacker versus near roof etc. You could have a hitter rating and rate each swing based on the result. 0 error 1 Broken Play on Other Side 2 In System play on other side 3 Kill Player gets the average of all swings. I think something like that would be a much more accurate picture. Loved the work this week by you
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2020 17:22:23 GMT -5
Agreed! You and “the guy from Santa Cruz” did a great job. My apologies for now know who was on the broadcast when I made that comment! Well done all series.
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Post by 23flavors on Aug 2, 2020 18:13:34 GMT -5
What are you talking about? hitting percentage is number of kills minus number of errors and then divided by total number of attempts. If you hit it out your percentage goes down. If you get blocked for a point it goes down. If it gets dug or blocked and covered it’s just an attempt and will still go down a little.
And this is a universal statistic for all levels of volleyball all over the world. This is not some concocted stat by the AVP
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Post by sonofdogman on Aug 2, 2020 18:48:10 GMT -5
The trouble with this as a stat is it doesn't take into account what happens when a ball is not killed or hit out. Explain what you meant here. Because I think you know that it does take into account both of those events. That's why the stat is the same as indoor, which you seen to acknowledge. So maybe you're unclear what you meant. However, I get your point about how the beach game has more nuance to it and a different way of looking at attack efficiency could be a boon.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2020 18:53:27 GMT -5
The trouble with this as a stat is it doesn't take into account what happens when a ball is not killed or hit out. Explain what you meant here. Because I think you know that it does take into account both of those events. That's why the stat is the same as indoor, which you seen to acknowledge. So maybe you're unclear what you meant. However, I get your point about how the beach game has more nuance to it and a different way of looking at attack efficiency could be a boon. he means there is a big difference between results on an "attempt" if i take a swing and they free ball it back over, that's pretty close to a kill in men's volleyball. if i take a swing and they dig it perfectly, it's pretty close to a hitting error. the current systems stats those as exactly the same, but they are very different
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Post by volleysballs on Aug 2, 2020 19:02:41 GMT -5
The trouble with this as a stat is it doesn't take into account what happens when a ball is not killed or hit out. Massive difference between a great hit that is stabbed up and brings a free ball back to the attacker and a roll shot right to the defender, that is basically a free ball to the defensive team. This isnt a huge consideration indoors, but its a key distinction in the beach game. Id like to see some rating on balls that are blocked or dug and how they are blocked or dug - i.e. easy soft block right back to attacker versus near roof etc. You could have a hitter rating and rate each swing based on the result. 0 error 1 Broken Play on Other Side 2 In System play on other side 3 Kill Player gets the average of all swings. I think 2 and 1 should be switched? 0 Hitting error 1 In System play on other side 2 Broken Play on Other Side 3 Kill Would be a very cool stat to see! Would also love to see a conversion% vs just dig totals. I think this could give more insight to effective defenders.
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Post by guest2 on Aug 2, 2020 19:03:51 GMT -5
What are you talking about? hitting percentage is number of kills minus number of errors and then divided by total number of attempts. If you hit it out your percentage goes down. If you get blocked for a point it goes down. If it gets dug or blocked and covered it’s just an attempt and will still go down a little. And this is a universal statistic for all levels of volleyball all over the world. This is not some concocted stat by the AVP It isnt a stat concoted by the AVP, but its a 40 + year old stat created for a different game and at no point did anyone really stop and think, "should this formula be different for beach?" I think that there must be better gauges that will truly show us which hitters are effective and how effective. Beach has a different set of common outcomes from indoors and if people are going to use a stat as shorthand for how good a hitter is, it should better reflect those outcomes and their comparative value. For example, late in his career, Sinjin swung at the ball very infrequently, choosing to almost always make shots - he also didnt hit it very hard. Phil, when he is playing aggressively, rarely shoots the ball. So if: 1) Phil swings hard 9 out of 10 times, gets four kills - including on his shot - and makes 1 error. He hits .200 2) Sinjin shoots 9 out of 10 times, gets four kills - including his swing - and is dug 6 times. He hits .400 Sinjin has given up the equivalent of 6 good point scoring opportunities for his team, whereas Phil has given up one point, but out of the 5 balls that the other team keeps in play, maybe 1 good point scoring opportunity. Phil has done better but hitting percentage would indicate Sinjin was the superior offensive player by a lot Its a very blunt statistic and adjusting the number of possible outcomes measured would make it much better.
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Post by guest2 on Aug 2, 2020 19:07:17 GMT -5
The trouble with this as a stat is it doesn't take into account what happens when a ball is not killed or hit out. Explain what you meant here. Because I think you know that it does take into account both of those events. That's why the stat is the same as indoor, which you seen to acknowledge. So maybe you're unclear what you meant. However, I get your point about how the beach game has more nuance to it and a different way of looking at attack efficiency could be a boon. Sure, consider two outcomes: ("defending team" indicates team not making initial attack) 1) Defender is hit in the face, ball bounces back over for a free ball to attacker, defending team never came close to scoring. 2) Defender picks up an easy roll shot, defending team runs its offense. Defending team scores 6 of 10 times Those are two very different outcomes, treated the same by hitting percentage.
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Post by guest2 on Aug 2, 2020 19:07:59 GMT -5
Explain what you meant here. Because I think you know that it does take into account both of those events. That's why the stat is the same as indoor, which you seen to acknowledge. So maybe you're unclear what you meant. However, I get your point about how the beach game has more nuance to it and a different way of looking at attack efficiency could be a boon. he means there is a big difference between results on an "attempt" if i take a swing and they free ball it back over, that's pretty close to a kill in men's volleyball. if i take a swing and they dig it perfectly, it's pretty close to a hitting error. the current systems stats those as exactly the same, but they are very different Should have read yours before I wrote mine.
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Post by ajm on Aug 2, 2020 19:14:48 GMT -5
Without seeing further data, I would be a bit skeptical that trying separate hits in play would offer much greater accuracy or predictive value. I would guess that players with a high kill percentage would also have a high rate of hits that get the opponent out of system. It would have to be a real outlier if a player could consistently get the opponent out of system but rarely be able to put the ball away. I would guess that such a “skill” would not be repeatable over the long term.
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Post by guest2 on Aug 2, 2020 19:32:47 GMT -5
Without seeing further data, I would be a bit skeptical that trying separate hits in play would offer much greater accuracy or predictive value. I would guess that players with a high kill percentage would also have a high rate of hits that get the opponent out of system. It would have to be a real outlier if a player could consistently get the opponent out of system but rarely be able to put the ball away. I would guess that such a “skill” would not be repeatable over the long term. Id disagree entirely and the main difference is probably shots versus swings. A shot, if dug, usually leads to a good scoring opportunity. A swing, not so much, particularly on the men's side. But as to the general inaccuracy, here are some numbers that, to me at least, really make clear that hitting percentage could use a rethink. Falyn Fonoimoana, with 22 matches played - so not a small sample - had the 3rd best hitting percentage last year of players who played at least 10 matches, Therese Cannon was 8th, Ledoux 9th. Kim Smith, in 13 matches, hit .422 and finished 17th, Betsi Flint finished 36th, behind Smith, Allie Wheeler, Ponnet, Dicello. etc.
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Post by ajm on Aug 2, 2020 20:25:13 GMT -5
I’d love to see someone try this and see what the numbers say. If anything it may at least tell you which players should be shooting more and which players should be swinging away. The beauty of hitting percentage is that it’s entirely objective. Kill, errors, attempts. Once you add the subjective element of deciding which digs are “in system” you’ll get different numbers depending on who is doing the stat keeping.
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Post by pepperclove on Aug 2, 2020 20:25:43 GMT -5
I love the idea of a conversion percentage stat. I bet April would dominate the other defenders on this one. She may not get quite as many digs as MHP, Sponcil, or Hughes, but her ability to terminate in transition stands out and it would be interesting to have a statistical comparison.
It's promising that the AVP is adding new categories like control blocks. I think having the consistent coverage on Prime is leading the broadcasters and the AVP to look for ways to bring in more stats as part of the broadcast, which hopefully will lead to a rethinking of what stats are most useful for breaking down a beach match. It's been interesting over the past three seasons to watch Kevin in particular gradually recalibrate his understanding of hitting percentages on the beach vs indoor (going from praising .300 hitters to recognizing that exceptional beach hitting percentages are actually much higher than that).
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