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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 13, 2020 11:55:14 GMT -5
Football does have some advantages: 1) It is played outdoors instead of indoors. 2) The schedule is one game a week - where testing right before playing and then at some point earlier in the week should greatly reduce the number of players playing on Saturday that are infectious. VB seems to be going down a similar road - with back to back matches only played on weekends in an effort to save money, but also to better control the spread of the virus. 3) If contracting COVID - the heart and lung diagnostics and care will be much greater for college football players than most people. If the number of college football players that end up being positive is something similar whether they play or don't play - the care given if they play will be an advantage. But, I'd think the outdoor aspect of football is largely negated by the fact that the entire point of the sport is contact - every play involves extreme contact, people literally on top of each other at the end of the play; in each other's face; all the contact at the the line, and on and on. And it's enormous physical exertion so folks are breathing hard and expelling.
Rapid tests would definitely help a lot. Not just taking everyone's temperature, but knowing an hour or two before the game if players actually have Covid. Put is that sort of testing possible on a large scale at the college level?
The testing frequency and care is the one reason I can see keeping the players in the programs and out of the community, but the testing needs to be faster and it isn't foolproof. There is a sizeable false negative rate in the PCR tests - although the reported range is really wide. For every 4 players that test positive, you miss one positive on average. My sense from the literature it that the rate is worse for the rapid tests, but there is a lot of variability. Uncertainty about negative results and the variable latency period is why we're typically advised to do 14 d quarantine if in contact with anyone testing positive - (although hospitals often have a mask exception - else you'd run out of health care providers). That practice would prevent spread, but it conflicts with having games because it removes so many players. I think it might make sense to keep players on campus without having games if those testing/monitoring resources are readily available as opposed to being in the real world where they aren't. But if the games can't go and seasons get disrupted, those resources aren't there, so it's a catch 22. I just don't think the whole thing is sustainable, unless you can afford the outlay to run the season and then just shut it down if need be. We're all just guessing about how bad spread will be during a game. And that's the problem. Can one offensive lineman be a superspreader? What about the QB who is shouting signals? Are huddles dangerous? We won't know until it happens and then it could be too late, so all you can do is act on a guess based on corresponding conditions that have led to spread before. There are few conditions like a football game though, although we do know there has been crowd spread at outdoor sporting events, which doesn't bode well. Because of the uncertainty, our guesses are strongly shaped by our preferred outcomes and priorities.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 13, 2020 11:56:55 GMT -5
Wishful thinking, today in yet another meeting, it was understood and agreed on - There will be no BigTen supported athletics for 2010-11 season. Very hopeful for Fall 2011, only "if" people wear masks, social distance, believe this is real, and supporting our healthcare/scientists! COVID is here to stay, we need our specialist and Epidemiologist to come together, supported at all costs (maybe after Jan. 20) and develop a path similar to the early days of HIV/AIDS. There is no magic pill, or a person promising it will suddenly magically go away, or some Russian faux-vaccine. My biggest fear is people who are pushing for normalcy, that want everything open and back to business as usual, those that say masks don't matter ad this is all a hoax, or those pushing for schools to open for personal gain, we just don't know the aftermath or health ramifications of COVID in the future. Some of the current side effects of those who are post-COVID are very troubling. Except for the fact that Covid-19 has essentially gone away in the states / countries that were hardest hit like: NY, NJ, UK, Italy, France, Spain & Sweden. What we haven't seen yet is whether it will "go away" in second wave states like TX, CA & FL. We can have a long discussion about whether it will stay away in various circumstances but there is a growing theory that herd immunity is reasonably close in many areas. It is also important to note that the second wave in TX, CA & FL was a lot (like 5x) less deadly than NY/NJ due to protecting our seniors, better treatments, etc. You also have to think through the fact that there are probably 100+ professional sports leagues playing across the globe right now. A big number of US colleges have been having football practices and have had other athletes back to school. For that matter, there were 10K? people at AAUs the other week in Orlando. I can't find a single case of any professional or college athlete catching Covid-19 and having to go to the hospital much less passing away. At some point you have to go beyond theory and ask in practice is this really dangerous with some reasonable precautions. And to give you some idea of degree of risk, 16 people have died playing D1 college footballs since 2000 or almost 1 a year. Does Covid-19 really add to the risk all that much? And FWIW, while I realize there may be complications short of death, there are an awful lot of those in just playing the sport of football. Just something to think about.
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Post by gibbyb1 on Aug 13, 2020 12:26:06 GMT -5
Wishful thinking, today in yet another meeting, it was understood and agreed on - There will be no BigTen supported athletics for 2010-11 season. Very hopeful for Fall 2011, only "if" people wear masks, social distance, believe this is real, and supporting our healthcare/scientists! COVID is here to stay, we need our specialist and Epidemiologist to come together, supported at all costs (maybe after Jan. 20) and develop a path similar to the early days of HIV/AIDS. There is no magic pill, or a person promising it will suddenly magically go away, or some Russian faux-vaccine. My biggest fear is people who are pushing for normalcy, that want everything open and back to business as usual, those that say masks don't matter ad this is all a hoax, or those pushing for schools to open for personal gain, we just don't know the aftermath or health ramifications of COVID in the future. Some of the current side effects of those who are post-COVID are very troubling. Except for the fact that Covid-19 has essentially gone away in the states / countries that were hardest hit like: NY, NJ, UK, Italy, France, Spain & Sweden. What we haven't seen yet is whether it will "go away" in second wave states like TX, CA & FL. We can have a long discussion about whether it will stay away in various circumstances but there is a growing theory that herd immunity is reasonably close in many areas. It is also important to note that the second wave in TX, CA & FL was a lot (like 5x) less deadly than NY/NJ due to protecting our seniors, better treatments, etc. You also have to think through the fact that there are probably 100+ professional sports leagues playing across the globe right now. A big number of US colleges have been having football practices and have had other athletes back to school. For that matter, there were 10K? people at AAUs the other week in Orlando. I can't find a single case of any professional or college athlete catching Covid-19 and having to go to the hospital much less passing away. At some point you have to go beyond theory and ask in practice is this really dangerous with some reasonable precautions. And to give you some idea of degree of risk, 16 people have died playing D1 college footballs since 2000 or almost 1 a year. Does Covid-19 really add to the risk all that much? And FWIW, while I realize there may be complications short of death, there are an awful lot of those in just playing the sport of football. Just something to think about. Here’s a stat, more people died from covid yesterday than anytime since May.
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Post by dodger on Aug 13, 2020 12:48:51 GMT -5
Lets say a football team is a family: college age, brother sister age, parents age and grandparent ages. Say 1 player gets covid: how many people in his family might he/she impact: in April a cluster that was tracked and documented had the following result: “ In this cluster, two family gatherings outside the household likely facilitated the spread of SARS-CoV-2; one index patient who attended both events likely triggered a chain of transmission that included 15 other confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 and ultimately resulted in three deaths. “ the 2 family gatherings were a birthday party (9people) and a funeral: 2hours funeral home and 3 hour gathering after (16 people) . So 1 person interacted with 25 individuals: (ages 3to 80). 15 covid from 1: 3 deaths. Do the extended math with your fav. university . Make your own decision form your own opinion.
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Post by Spectator on Aug 13, 2020 13:01:37 GMT -5
Yes, but I suspect another reason played into it. The truth is that most college presidents, administrators and academicians resent the importance of college athletics. The pandemic gives them the opportunity to de-emphasize athletics. They somehow think that by doing so, they will raise the importance of academics and their academic standing. They are wrong. I remember when Bobby Bowden said that it was his football program that made Florida State, Florida State. Until then it was something of a backwater. He wasn't wrong and the administration knew it. Do you have any evidence to back up that spewage? 100% liability. Every reporter has asked the B1G commish, “What changed in 6 days, from releasing the football schedule to canceling the season?” His response is broad strokes about advice from the medical community and unknowns about the virus. Aren’t we all at home thinking the B1G players following the Pac-12 by forming a unity group and creating a list of demands was the catalyst to canceling? The players demanding NO COVID waivers and short and long term medical coverage for all COVID related issues (which I believe is fair) had to be a deal breaker. The conference/NCAA could not come out and say they would not agree to those terms but feel it’s safe to play. I would love for a reporter to ask how much that influenced the decision to cancel. The P5 conferences still planning to play have not received such demands from players.
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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 13, 2020 13:08:33 GMT -5
Wishful thinking, today in yet another meeting, it was understood and agreed on - There will be no BigTen supported athletics for 2010-11 season. Very hopeful for Fall 2011, only "if" people wear masks, social distance, believe this is real, and supporting our healthcare/scientists! COVID is here to stay, we need our specialist and Epidemiologist to come together, supported at all costs (maybe after Jan. 20) and develop a path similar to the early days of HIV/AIDS. There is no magic pill, or a person promising it will suddenly magically go away, or some Russian faux-vaccine. My biggest fear is people who are pushing for normalcy, that want everything open and back to business as usual, those that say masks don't matter ad this is all a hoax, or those pushing for schools to open for personal gain, we just don't know the aftermath or health ramifications of COVID in the future. Some of the current side effects of those who are post-COVID are very troubling. Except for the fact that Covid-19 has essentially gone away in the states / countries that were hardest hit like: NY, NJ, UK, Italy, France, Spain & Sweden. What we haven't seen yet is whether it will "go away" in second wave states like TX, CA & FL. We can have a long discussion about whether it will stay away in various circumstances but there is a growing theory that herd immunity is reasonably close in many areas. It is also important to note that the second wave in TX, CA & FL was a lot (like 5x) less deadly than NY/NJ due to protecting our seniors, better treatments, etc. You also have to think through the fact that there are probably 100+ professional sports leagues playing across the globe right now. A big number of US colleges have been having football practices and have had other athletes back to school. For that matter, there were 10K? people at AAUs the other week in Orlando. I can't find a single case of any professional or college athlete catching Covid-19 and having to go to the hospital much less passing away. At some point you have to go beyond theory and ask in practice is this really dangerous with some reasonable precautions. And to give you some idea of degree of risk, 16 people have died playing D1 college footballs since 2000 or almost 1 a year. Does Covid-19 really add to the risk all that much? And FWIW, while I realize there may be complications short of death, there are an awful lot of those in just playing the sport of football. Just something to think about. I'm in NY. In NY and Europe herd immunity is definitely not why the infection rate is low. It went away because we worked hard to make it go away. You have to cherry pick data from very specific neighborhoods to support the idea that herd immunity is part of the reason. The lower spread we've been seeing this summer is probably due to a mixture of changing behavior (masks, less contact), environment (light, warmth) and demographics of infection. The exact mix is uncertain and probably varies from place to place. You have to remember - the virus spread in the NE for weeks before anyone really knew it was there, seeded by a massive influx from Europe, and then it spread most in neighborhoods with poor essential workers who couldn't afford to stay home. That really affected initial spreading rates. There have been a number of high level athletes affected with COVID. There are serious concerns over long term heart effects. The ACE-2 receptor used by the COVID virus to accesses cells is highly expressed in heart tissue. Myocarditis is a real concern for athletes with professional aspirations, and it can be deadly. So yeah, I think it definitely increases the risk of death. But that is not the only end point to worry about. Nor are we solely worried about the players. Concussions can't spread to the larger community. You are right that lower community infection rates would change the calculus. That's why professional sports are playing in other countries - with some difficulties. NY would probably be moving toward Europe style reopening right now, but we're worried about cases coming in from other states that aren't controlling the virus - especially as the school year starts. The state level quarantine rules for incoming people are actually pretty weak here because they are effectively voluntary.
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Post by nakedcrayon on Aug 13, 2020 13:16:20 GMT -5
Southland Conference cancelled fall sports
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2020 13:23:10 GMT -5
Do you have any evidence to back up that spewage? 100% liability. Every reporter has asked the B1G commish, “What changed in 6 days, from releasing the football schedule to canceling the season?” His response is broad strokes about advice from the medical community and unknowns about the virus. Aren’t we all at home thinking the B1G players following the Pac-12 by forming a unity group and creating a list of demands was the catalyst to canceling? The players demanding NO COVID waivers and short and long term medical coverage for all COVID related issues (which I believe is fair) had to be a deal breaker. The conference/NCAA could not come out and say they would not agree to those terms but feel it’s safe to play. I would love for a reporter to ask how much that influenced the decision to cancel. The P5 conferences still planning to play have not received such demands from players. Did you miss the announcement by the NCAA that Covid waivers are unenforceable and that any student compelled to sign them should notify the NCAA on their hotline? The demands from the players didn't trigger the liability concerns. A basic level of human decency on the part of the D1 council did. The SEC, B12 and ACC don't have a solution for that issue. They're just praying it doesn't bite them in the ass.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 13, 2020 15:55:56 GMT -5
Except for the fact that Covid-19 has essentially gone away in the states / countries that were hardest hit like: NY, NJ, UK, Italy, France, Spain & Sweden. What we haven't seen yet is whether it will "go away" in second wave states like TX, CA & FL. We can have a long discussion about whether it will stay away in various circumstances but there is a growing theory that herd immunity is reasonably close in many areas. It is also important to note that the second wave in TX, CA & FL was a lot (like 5x) less deadly than NY/NJ due to protecting our seniors, better treatments, etc. You also have to think through the fact that there are probably 100+ professional sports leagues playing across the globe right now. A big number of US colleges have been having football practices and have had other athletes back to school. For that matter, there were 10K? people at AAUs the other week in Orlando. I can't find a single case of any professional or college athlete catching Covid-19 and having to go to the hospital much less passing away. At some point you have to go beyond theory and ask in practice is this really dangerous with some reasonable precautions. And to give you some idea of degree of risk, 16 people have died playing D1 college footballs since 2000 or almost 1 a year. Does Covid-19 really add to the risk all that much? And FWIW, while I realize there may be complications short of death, there are an awful lot of those in just playing the sport of football. Just something to think about. I'm in NY. In NY and Europe herd immunity is definitely not why the infection rate is low. It went away because we worked hard to make it go away. You have to cherry pick data from very specific neighborhoods to support the idea that herd immunity is part of the reason. The lower spread we've been seeing this summer is probably due to a mixture of changing behavior (masks, less contact), environment (light, warmth) and demographics of infection. The exact mix is uncertain and probably varies from place to place. You have to remember - the virus spread in the NE for weeks before anyone really knew it was there, seeded by a massive influx from Europe, and then it spread most in neighborhoods with poor essential workers who couldn't afford to stay home. That really affected initial spreading rates. There have been a number of high level athletes affected with COVID. There are serious concerns over long term heart effects. The ACE-2 receptor used by the COVID virus to accesses cells is highly expressed in heart tissue. Myocarditis is a real concern for athletes with professional aspirations, and it can be deadly. So yeah, I think it definitely increases the risk of death. But that is not the only end point to worry about. Nor are we solely worried about the players. Concussions can't spread to the larger community. You are right that lower community infection rates would change the calculus. That's why professional sports are playing in other countries - with some difficulties. NY would probably be moving toward Europe style reopening right now, but we're worried about cases coming in from other states that aren't controlling the virus - especially as the school year starts. The state level quarantine rules for incoming people are actually pretty weak here because they are effectively voluntary. I have had a number of other people from NY make this claim that they did a great job so that is why they beat Covid. Interestingly, none of them have been to LA or Miami so it isn't exactly clear how they know this. What I will tell you is that there is not a single piece of data to back up your claim. And we have a ton of data: mobility, credit card present transactions, surveys on mask compliance, etc. etc. The best data scientists in the world have been looking for it on a country, state or county level and it does not exist. You also run into the problem of Sweden. They have done very little to stop Covid: Restaraunts open the whole time, schools open the whole time, very little mask wearing. Their rates of death and infection are down to practically zero. Did they also do a great job in beating Covid? The math on herd immunity is very complicated. We can have a long conversation about it. But it is IMO the best hypothesis for what is happening in the NE and certain European countries. We won't even talk about travel bans. They have been effective in Europe but it is very hard to make them work in the US. Now it doesn't matter. If we could have locked down NY, NY & CT early it might have made a difference. This is essentially what Eastern & Central Europe did. But we don't have that infrastructure. It also isn't clear as they open up if they won't have a second wave.....
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Post by nothingbutcorn on Aug 13, 2020 15:58:12 GMT -5
So looking at the JHU CV19 tracker for not only the USA but the world. If you look at confirmed cases vs. confirmed CV19 deaths both are less than 1/2%. All the talk we continue to hear makes it sound like it is so much worse. Like we are at 10 to 15%.
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Post by vbcoltrane on Aug 13, 2020 16:11:51 GMT -5
So looking at the JHU CV19 tracker for not only the USA but the world. If you look at confirmed cases vs. confirmed CV19 deaths both are less than 1/2%. All the talk we continue to hear makes it sound like it is so much worse. Like we are at 10 to 15%. Really? I hear a lot about spiking rates in various states and cities and the fact that we really should, overall, have it more under control. But, haven't really heard a lot of hyperbolic news about the death rate. It's good that the death rate is low. I still don't want it.
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Post by dodger on Aug 13, 2020 16:33:54 GMT -5
I went to JHCovid: world wide :total cases: 20,728,874: Total deaths: 751,448: 188 countries included: do the math and thats: 3.61 % of deaths! That seems a bit higher than 1/2%?
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Post by dodger on Aug 13, 2020 16:40:16 GMT -5
New york is all but disappeared? New york city averaging 670 new positive tests a day as of August 12! All but disappeared”! Interesting!?
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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 13, 2020 16:53:58 GMT -5
New york is all but disappeared? New york city averaging 670 new positive tests a day as of August 12! All but disappeared”! Interesting!? Yeah, we still have cases, which is why most people are still a bit on edge. It's unclear how many of those are imported. Better than +10k/d positives though, and 1k deaths/d. Plus, we have only a 1% positive test rate after topping out at +40%. So that's good.
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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 13, 2020 17:10:31 GMT -5
So looking at the JHU CV19 tracker for not only the USA but the world. If you look at confirmed cases vs. confirmed CV19 deaths both are less than 1/2%. All the talk we continue to hear makes it sound like it is so much worse. Like we are at 10 to 15%. As someone else mentioned, the Hopkins number is in the 3-4% range, but that is the case fatality rate. The 10-15 % also probably refers to some case fatality rate early in the epidemic. That number depends on lots of things, but especially testing. It tends to be high when testing capacity is limited as it was early in pandemic. Nobody has ever used that number to make a real decision, other than about expanding testing capacity. The infection fatality rate is lower. It's been estimated at 0.5-2% since I can remember. CDC estimates 0.65%. NY estimates 0.7-0.8%. The rates depend on demographics of infection, environment, care etc. The IFR could be higher if deaths due to COVID are underestimated, as suggested by excess deaths estimates. That wouldn't be unexpected as diagnoses and attribution are difficult during pandemics, where the disease is not entirely understood.
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