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Post by n00b on Aug 13, 2020 17:23:39 GMT -5
New york is all but disappeared? New york city averaging 670 new positive tests a day as of August 12! All but disappeared”! Interesting!? Yes, one massive spike has shown to be the most effective way to later get the infection rate extremely low. However, I would not suggest that strategy going forward...
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 13, 2020 17:45:58 GMT -5
Rumors out of FSU that football coaching staff is covering up positive tests. If founded, stick a fork in their season because no way University leadership allows that kind of liability walking around campus.
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Post by cindra on Aug 13, 2020 17:50:11 GMT -5
ACC meeting today for a final decision per FSU president. With the NCAA cancellation news this may be a death knell
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Post by vbcoltrane on Aug 13, 2020 17:50:45 GMT -5
Rumors out of FSU that football coaching staff is covering up positive tests. If founded, stick a fork in their season because no way University leadership allows that kind of liability walking around campus. Wasn't Colorado State already accused of something fishy?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 13, 2020 18:07:57 GMT -5
Rumors out of FSU that football coaching staff is covering up positive tests. If founded, stick a fork in their season because no way University leadership allows that kind of liability walking around campus. Wasn't Colorado State already accused of something fishy?
Yup. CSU isn't playing and it's triggered an expansive internal investigation. Coach may not survive it (now there's general abuse and racism claims tacked on).
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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 13, 2020 18:14:50 GMT -5
I'm in NY. In NY and Europe herd immunity is definitely not why the infection rate is low. It went away because we worked hard to make it go away. You have to cherry pick data from very specific neighborhoods to support the idea that herd immunity is part of the reason. The lower spread we've been seeing this summer is probably due to a mixture of changing behavior (masks, less contact), environment (light, warmth) and demographics of infection. The exact mix is uncertain and probably varies from place to place. You have to remember - the virus spread in the NE for weeks before anyone really knew it was there, seeded by a massive influx from Europe, and then it spread most in neighborhoods with poor essential workers who couldn't afford to stay home. That really affected initial spreading rates. There have been a number of high level athletes affected with COVID. There are serious concerns over long term heart effects. The ACE-2 receptor used by the COVID virus to accesses cells is highly expressed in heart tissue. Myocarditis is a real concern for athletes with professional aspirations, and it can be deadly. So yeah, I think it definitely increases the risk of death. But that is not the only end point to worry about. Nor are we solely worried about the players. Concussions can't spread to the larger community. You are right that lower community infection rates would change the calculus. That's why professional sports are playing in other countries - with some difficulties. NY would probably be moving toward Europe style reopening right now, but we're worried about cases coming in from other states that aren't controlling the virus - especially as the school year starts. The state level quarantine rules for incoming people are actually pretty weak here because they are effectively voluntary. I have had a number of other people from NY make this claim that they did a great job so that is why they beat Covid. Interestingly, none of them have been to LA or Miami so it isn't exactly clear how they know this. What I will tell you is that there is not a single piece of data to back up your claim. And we have a ton of data: mobility, credit card present transactions, surveys on mask compliance, etc. etc. The best data scientists in the world have been looking for it on a country, state or county level and it does not exist. You also run into the problem of Sweden. They have done very little to stop Covid: Restaraunts open the whole time, schools open the whole time, very little mask wearing. Their rates of death and infection are down to practically zero. Did they also do a great job in beating Covid? The math on herd immunity is very complicated. We can have a long conversation about it. But it is IMO the best hypothesis for what is happening in the NE and certain European countries. We won't even talk about travel bans. They have been effective in Europe but it is very hard to make them work in the US. Now it doesn't matter. If we could have locked down NY, NY & CT early it might have made a difference. This is essentially what Eastern & Central Europe did. But we don't have that infrastructure. It also isn't clear as they open up if they won't have a second wave..... I have no idea what you are talking about with NY or what data would suffice for you. All I know it that the number of infections, death rates, and positivity rates are way down from April. Those reductions came pursuant to actions. The vast majority of people in the stores I go to on LI still wear masks - maybe not well, but they wear them. In the city you are expected to wear them on the street. T here is plenty of data saying that masks reduce transmission (I only cite one of dozens of studies on the issue). I don't care if that data is specific to NY or not. The virus is the basically same bug. I (and many others) don't consider Sweden a success story. It has among the highest fatality rates per capita in Europe, certainly higher than other scandavian countries that took a completely different tack. It is nowhere near herd immunity. It's still not clear if there has been any economic benefit overall from Sweden's approach. That awaits a longer term view than we have now. There is certainly some fine tuning about responses to COVID that we need to learn. Some actions probably had bigger effects than others. There is a lot to learn about the effects of the disease, both health wise and economically. But herd immunity implies huge loss of life. Given a R0 of 2 (which is on the low end), herd immunity would only set in if 67% of the population was infected - assuming no other mitigating actions. Some localities are close to that, the vast majority aren't. Even at the lowest IFR estimates (0.5%, lower than CDC at 0.65%), that would mean 1.1 million dead. Even if you reached herd immunity at 50%, you are at 825k. That would be 1 of every 400 people. We're at one in 2000 now. Probably more. To bring this back to sports - if we had a larger coordinated plan, we could endure a short term economic cost and get to a situation that would allow them without risking such a cost to lives, which will always trump economics. And I would have my volleyball season this Fall. Maybe we could even have football. But we keep trying to thread some needle between the value of life and economic constancy while blind. That sweater won't knit.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2020 18:29:43 GMT -5
ACC meeting today for a final decision per FSU president. With the NCAA cancellation news this may be a death knell "Final" decision. They will move forward until they can't. I don't think they can or will. Though, they will sure as hell try to convince themselves that they can.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 13, 2020 18:32:05 GMT -5
New york is all but disappeared? New york city averaging 670 new positive tests a day as of August 12! All but disappeared”! Interesting!? Yeah, we still have cases, which is why most people are still a bit on edge. It's unclear how many of those are imported. Better than +10k/d positives though, and 1k deaths/d. Plus, we have only a 1% positive test rate after topping out at +40%. So that's good. FWIW, NYS is down to <10 deaths a day. I would caution everyone not to look at single day numbers. Due to reporting issues there are big swings based on day of the week. Most are using 7 day moving averages. And most think the IFR is something around 0.5%. It isn't even close to 2.0%. But frankly that isn't that interesting. The IFR for those under 30 is very small. Likely less than 0.02%. OTOH, for those over 80 it is likely over 10%. The average of those two numbers is frankly not that interesting....
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Post by gibbyb1 on Aug 13, 2020 18:44:05 GMT -5
Rumors out of FSU that football coaching staff is covering up positive tests. If founded, stick a fork in their season because no way University leadership allows that kind of liability walking around campus. If that’s true it would have to go well beyond coaching staff, training and medical. Staff would have been aware. IF that’s true
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Post by gibbyb1 on Aug 13, 2020 18:44:49 GMT -5
Yeah, we still have cases, which is why most people are still a bit on edge. It's unclear how many of those are imported. Better than +10k/d positives though, and 1k deaths/d. Plus, we have only a 1% positive test rate after topping out at +40%. So that's good. FWIW, NYS is down to <10 deaths a day. I would caution everyone not to look at single day numbers. Due to reporting issues there are big swings based on day of the week. Most are using 7 day moving averages. And most think the IFR is something around 0.5%. It isn't even close to 2.0%. But frankly that isn't that interesting. The IFR for those under 30 is very small. Likely less than 0.02%. OTOH, for those over 80 it is likely over 10%. The average of those two numbers is frankly not that interesting.... There were more COVID deaths yesterday nationally than any other day since May.
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Post by n00b on Aug 13, 2020 18:46:15 GMT -5
Rumors out of FSU that football coaching staff is covering up positive tests. If founded, stick a fork in their season because no way University leadership allows that kind of liability walking around campus. I’m not sure how this is even possible. Football coaches aren’t the ones testing. Also, they probably aren’t the ones in charge of reporting anything (or shouldn’t be). That falls on trainers and university health personnel.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 13, 2020 19:08:17 GMT -5
I have had a number of other people from NY make this claim that they did a great job so that is why they beat Covid. Interestingly, none of them have been to LA or Miami so it isn't exactly clear how they know this. What I will tell you is that there is not a single piece of data to back up your claim. And we have a ton of data: mobility, credit card present transactions, surveys on mask compliance, etc. etc. The best data scientists in the world have been looking for it on a country, state or county level and it does not exist. You also run into the problem of Sweden. They have done very little to stop Covid: Restaraunts open the whole time, schools open the whole time, very little mask wearing. Their rates of death and infection are down to practically zero. Did they also do a great job in beating Covid? The math on herd immunity is very complicated. We can have a long conversation about it. But it is IMO the best hypothesis for what is happening in the NE and certain European countries. We won't even talk about travel bans. They have been effective in Europe but it is very hard to make them work in the US. Now it doesn't matter. If we could have locked down NY, NY & CT early it might have made a difference. This is essentially what Eastern & Central Europe did. But we don't have that infrastructure. It also isn't clear as they open up if they won't have a second wave..... I have no idea what you are talking about with NY or what data would suffice for you. All I know it that the number of infections, death rates, and positivity rates are way down from April. Those reductions came pursuant to actions. The vast majority of people in the stores I go to on LI still wear masks - maybe not well, but they wear them. In the city you are expected to wear them on the street. T here is plenty of data saying that masks reduce transmission (I only cite one of dozens of studies on the issue). I don't care if that data is specific to NY or not. The virus is the basically same bug. I (and many others) don't consider Sweden a success story. It has among the highest fatality rates per capita in Europe, certainly higher than other scandavian countries that took a completely different tack. It is nowhere near herd immunity. It's still not clear if there has been any economic benefit overall from Sweden's approach. That awaits a longer term view than we have now. There is certainly some fine tuning about responses to COVID that we need to learn. Some actions probably had bigger effects than others. There is a lot to learn about the effects of the disease, both health wise and economically. But herd immunity implies huge loss of life. Given a R0 of 2 (which is on the low end), herd immunity would only set in if 67% of the population was infected - assuming no other mitigating actions. Some localities are close to that, the vast majority aren't. Even at the lowest IFR estimates (0.5%, lower than CDC at 0.65%), that would mean 1.1 million dead. Even if you reached herd immunity at 50%, you are at 825k. That would be 1 of every 400 people. We're at one in 2000 now. Probably more. To bring this back to sports - if we had a larger coordinated plan, we could endure a short term economic cost and get to a situation that would allow them without risking such a cost to lives, which will always trump economics. And I would have my volleyball season this Fall. Maybe we could even have football. But we keep trying to thread some needle between the value of life and economic constancy while blind. That sweater won't knit. We agree that all of the NY covid data points are much much better. They have very little covid. You say that is because of actions. The problem with that theory is that all of the data measuring actions suggest NY isn't really doing anything different from say CA. The NYT had survey data on mask wearing and NYC was no higher than LA as an example. If you look at data on mobile phone movements the data went down about the same amount in NYC and LA. If you look at how many card present transaction are happening at restaurants and similar establishments they went down about the same amount. Literally any data point you choose NYC is doing no better than LA. And yet LA just had a big spike in cases and NY is down to very little. Why is that? Please find my any data point that shows how NYC did a better job in social distancing than LA. There isn't one. Similarly, Sweden is down to ~3 deaths a day and currently has fewer covid deaths per capita than NY. How did they do it? They haven't done any of the things that you claim have helped NY conquer covid. Maybe, just maybe, you have it wrong. Very happy to talk about the herd immunity math. Here we go.... You are right that you start with R0. You are also right that R0 without mitigation is probably over 2. Very hard to measure. But with some simple mitigation measures R0 quickly gets much smaller than that. FL, who is lead by a Republican, Trump loving and clearly stupid governor, never really had an R0 over 1.4 in their second wave. If you assume an R0 of 1.4 then you need 30% infection to get to herd immunity. 1.4*(1-.3)=.98. However, it looks like some people are immune to this disease. Corona viruses have been around for a while and it looks like at least some of them have left people immune to Covid-19. The math gets more complex here because the RO of 1.4 includes the immune. But if assume that say 50% of people are immune, then a 15% infection rate would reduce the number of people that can actually catch the disease by 30% and would reach herd immunity. So: 1.4*(1/.5)-.15)=.98. There is one more big issue. All of these calcs essentially assume that all people are equally socially active. That almost certainly is not the case. So as the most socially active people contact the disease (likely 20-25 year olds) they are going to be the first to get immune and their immunity will have a bigger impact on the R0 because they are the most active vectors of spread. The math here gets very complicated butbut it clearly lowers the level to reach herd immunity and potentially by a lot. Now all of the numbers I quoted above are approximations that you can argue with. And we don't really have very good estimates for frankly any of the them. What we do know is that the place that have been hit the hardest now have very little of the disease. This includes a country like Sweden that has done almost nothing to suppress the disease. The smartest data people are starting to settle around the herd immunity hypothesis. Just to be clear, given the difficult math above the level of herd immunity in various places could be fairly different. The level of herd immunity will also change depending upon what mitigation measures you use and as you open up the mitigation does down, R0 goes up and you need a higher level to hit herd immunity. If you are interested I would point you to Youyang Gu who developed covidprojections.com and posts some very interesting stuff on Twitter....
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Post by c4ndlelight on Aug 13, 2020 19:22:01 GMT -5
Rumors out of FSU that football coaching staff is covering up positive tests. If founded, stick a fork in their season because no way University leadership allows that kind of liability walking around campus. I’m not sure how this is even possible. Football coaches aren’t the ones testing. Also, they probably aren’t the ones in charge of reporting anything (or shouldn’t be). That falls on trainers and university health personnel. They are the ones receiving the reports and instructing players to hide positive test results from their teammates and others.
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Post by gibbyb1 on Aug 13, 2020 20:47:34 GMT -5
Rumors out of FSU that football coaching staff is covering up positive tests. If founded, stick a fork in their season because no way University leadership allows that kind of liability walking around campus. I’m not sure how this is even possible. Football coaches aren’t the ones testing. Also, they probably aren’t the ones in charge of reporting anything (or shouldn’t be). That falls on trainers and university health personnel. Agreed
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Post by n00b on Aug 13, 2020 20:53:52 GMT -5
I’m not sure how this is even possible. Football coaches aren’t the ones testing. Also, they probably aren’t the ones in charge of reporting anything (or shouldn’t be). That falls on trainers and university health personnel. They are the ones receiving the reports and instructing players to hide positive test results from their teammates and others. It seems this is the Tweet that is the origin of these claims. Other FSU football players have tweeted that they don’t share this view. I’d be curious to hear how FSU lied to him about his own health. Regarding teammates’ health, HIPAA might restrict that in a way that he doesn’t understand.
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