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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2020 13:26:13 GMT -5
If the Military "decides" that Trump is no longer president, that will defacto be a declaration of civil war. A lot of people (in militias and in the guard/armed services) will die.
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Post by mervinswerved on Oct 6, 2020 13:36:54 GMT -5
Consider me deeply skeptical any agency or branch of government will resist if Biden is elected. GOP will toss Trump overboard before Thanksgiving. A more likely threat is that he just stops governing entirely for two months before inauguration. I agree, but there will be immense pressure from Barr/Trump for the machinery to grind to a halt unless there is a landslide win and zero doubt at all. I don't think that people will straight up not listen to the results, but I think there will be a lot of attempts to cast doubts on the results through the use of government power What is the DOJ going to do about it? The elections are run by states and certified by states. I suppose they could send in the FBI or ATF to close polling places or throw the PA secretary of state in prison. I could see them trying to interfere *before* state results are certified/electors vote, but after an EC result is declared it's game over.
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Post by hammer on Oct 6, 2020 13:50:18 GMT -5
On Jan. 6, 2021, the House will have to pick the next President via special rules if the electors from enough States can't be certified to given Biden or Trump the needed 270 electoral votes.
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Post by BearClause on Oct 6, 2020 14:02:30 GMT -5
The House will have to pick the next President via special rules if the electors from enough States can't be certified before January 6 to give Biden or Trump 270 electoral votes. Yeah - that's a contingent election. I've mentioned it before when there was talk about the "design" of the Electoral College. It was quite expected that Congress would get to choose the President often. The other wrinkle is that it's one vote per state's House delegation for President but each US Senator gets a vote for Vice President.
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Post by BearClause on Oct 6, 2020 14:19:42 GMT -5
I agree, but there will be immense pressure from Barr/Trump for the machinery to grind to a halt unless there is a landslide win and zero doubt at all. I don't think that people will straight up not listen to the results, but I think there will be a lot of attempts to cast doubts on the results through the use of government power What is the DOJ going to do about it? The elections are run by states and certified by states. I suppose they could send in the FBI or ATF to close polling places or throw the PA secretary of state in prison. I could see them trying to interfere *before* state results are certified/electors vote, but after an EC result is declared it's game over. Sure. There's been talk about the expected "Blue Shift" given that more Democratic voters are expected to vote by mail this general election. Also that some states allow election day postmarks to determine validity. Pennsylvania is a mess though with all the lawsuits, "naked" ballots, etc. They're not allowed to process/count them until the morning of election day. I know in Washington they don't start counting until 8 PM on election day, but they spend weeks processing them. It could take days to count, and in the meantime there might be some attempt to lock in results by the Trump campaign while he's ahead in the state. I expect that Pennsylvania will be the subject of more lawsuits. Some trying to overturn the naked ballot ruling. The Trump campaign trying to overturn the drop box ruling allowing them outside of election offices plus trying to overturn the postmark deadline ordered by the PA Supreme Court. But the big worry is whether or not they're going to try and stop the counting of normally uncontroversial ballots based on some novel principle. I don't really believe that state legislatures are going to be able to select their own slate of electors if they disagree with the popular vote. There's a requirement in federal law (3 USC ยง 5) that the method for any "contest" for the choice of a state's Presidential electors has to be locked in by election day, although the language of the law uses other terms.
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Post by ironhammer on Oct 6, 2020 16:24:24 GMT -5
Trump sure has made American democracy look like one big mess. A big gift to authoritarian regimes around the world no doubt.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 6, 2020 17:43:19 GMT -5
If the Military "decides" that Trump is no longer president, that will defacto be a declaration of civil war. A lot of people (in militias and in the guard/armed services) will die. Technically that would be more of a "coup" than a "civil war".
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 6, 2020 17:44:00 GMT -5
I agree, but there will be immense pressure from Barr/Trump for the machinery to grind to a halt unless there is a landslide win and zero doubt at all. I don't think that people will straight up not listen to the results, but I think there will be a lot of attempts to cast doubts on the results through the use of government power What is the DOJ going to do about it? The elections are run by states and certified by states. I suppose they could send in the FBI or ATF to close polling places or throw the PA secretary of state in prison. I could see them trying to interfere *before* state results are certified/electors vote, but after an EC result is declared it's game over. Tell that to Florida 2000.
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Post by mervinswerved on Oct 6, 2020 17:52:22 GMT -5
A big gift to authoritarian regimes around the world no doubt. As opposed to the last 100 years of American foreign policy?
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Post by keener on Oct 6, 2020 18:58:05 GMT -5
Bros he gonna be like Tony Montana sitting at the desk in the Oval Office with a huge pile of blow on the table.
"YOU WANNA PLAY ROUGH? OKAY! SAY HELLO TO MY LITTLE FRIEND!!!!"
Ah that would be some epic sh!t right there I hope CNN is there to capture it.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 6, 2020 20:11:13 GMT -5
I think the train is going to come right off the rails if it is absolutely clear that trump lost the popular vote *again*, but somehow he was named President by either the Electoral College or the House. That's some serious Belarus territory there. I may have taken this out of context - but whoever wins the EV wins the election regardless of the popular vote. You cannot walk back the popular vote when way over half the country is free to vote on conscious instead of a binary choice. If Biden wins the popular vote 50-47 and Trump wins the EV - Trump would be the legit President. If it is a tie - it goes to the House and doesn't revert back to the popular vote. Those are the rules going in. We don't get to change the rules if we don't like the results.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 6, 2020 20:17:32 GMT -5
Since the most likely tipping point states - in the off chance this election is actually close - are Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Both run by Democrat Governors - problem solved.
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Post by BearClause on Oct 6, 2020 20:22:49 GMT -5
Since the most likely tipping point states - in the off chance this election is actually close - are Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Both run by Democrat Governors - problem solved. There's some talk about all sorts of things including Governors possibly trying to send their own slate of electors. Or perhaps state legislatures literally reading the Constitution and directly assigning their own electors without the input of Governors or the courts. I think it's pretty silly, but it's just one of those weird things that might be tried.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 6, 2020 20:24:50 GMT -5
I think the train is going to come right off the rails if it is absolutely clear that trump lost the popular vote *again*, but somehow he was named President by either the Electoral College or the House. That's some serious Belarus territory there. I may have taken this out of context - but whoever wins the EV wins the election regardless of the popular vote. You cannot walk back the popular vote when way over half the country is free to vote on conscious instead of a binary choice. The EC needs to go. It's never been the case that a President lost the popular vote twice but was elected by the EC twice. That would be a bad precedent all by itself -- a serious sign of illegitimacy. But what I was thinking about is more along the lines of if Biden wins the popular vote in enough states to have 270+ electoral votes, but for one reason or another he doesn't get those votes in the EC. The scenario that has been discussed is something like Biden wins Florida and that pushes him over 270, but the election is contested and the governor either names his own pro-Trump EC delegates or else requires all Florida delegates to abstain. The former could give Trump the EC win, while the latter could deny Biden an EC majority and send the election to the House, which is currently stacked pro-GOP on a one-vote-per-state basis. (According to law it would be the incoming House that votes, not the outgoing, but I'm not sure the incoming House will be distributed all that differently from the current House.) Anyway, I think what many people are hoping for is a clear agreement between the popular vote and the EC. That would still leave a lot of people unhappy, but it would calm down the claims of illegitimacy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2020 20:28:07 GMT -5
If the Military "decides" that Trump is no longer president, that will defacto be a declaration of civil war. A lot of people (in militias and in the guard/armed services) will die. Technically that would be more of a "coup" than a "civil war". I said defacto, because the civil war part will be due to the response of the militias. Possible (probably) incited by Trump.
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