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Post by ebes1099 on Apr 29, 2021 22:33:50 GMT -5
With Dalcena locked in to at least another 9th, that means T2 would need a 2nd to overtake them if Dalcena loses their first playoff game.
T2 may not even make it out of pool tomorrow. Am I reading it right that there's only 2 more tournaments after this for qualifying points, Sochi and Ostrava?
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Post by tamz on Apr 29, 2021 22:52:31 GMT -5
With Dalcena locked in to at least another 9th, that means T2 would need a 2nd to overtake them if Dalcena loses their first playoff game. T2 may not even make it out of pool tomorrow. Am I reading it right that there's only 2 more tournaments after this for qualifying points, Sochi and Ostrava? Correct. Sochi and Ostrava are also back to back at the end of May going to early June. The official Olympics cutoff date is June 14th, but the list is pretty much set after Ostrava on June 6th, 2021. Tri called it that they’ll win Hub 3 on Sandcast 🤷🏻♀️
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Post by acrossthepond on Apr 30, 2021 3:47:25 GMT -5
In non-US related news: Carambula/Rossi really made the most of these Cancun events so far. They finished 4th and 5th and now are guaranteed at least a 9th which would increase their Olympic point total by 100. Their next finishes to replace are 300 and 320 points. Kantor/Losiak also improved their point total already by at least 40 points. They are making a late push.
Even though the Grimalts had a terrible Cancun so far they still are in good position to qualify. If they are lucky they might not even need to add to their point total. Heidrich/Gerson might be the biggest losers so far. They started the Cancun hub in a qualification spot and now are from the outside looking in.
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Post by KAP on Apr 30, 2021 15:06:43 GMT -5
I am hoping to see Cafambula/Rossi wrap up a spot! Another good finish here in Cancun would put them in a great position to qualify. A podium would jump them ahead of the Grimalts!
Chile is in it for now, but they haven't clinched it yet. And with how bad their entry points are now, they may not make the MD in the final two events. They have a pretty clear path to at least qualify through the Continental Cup, so I expect them to be in Tokyo one way or another.
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Post by tamz on Apr 30, 2021 17:44:46 GMT -5
For T2, a game against Cribb would be +40 to OR. A win against Cribb would be an additional +80 to OR.
Cribb also needs a win against T2 to +80 to their OR.
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Post by tamz on Apr 30, 2021 23:22:56 GMT -5
AFTER CANCUN HUB 3 (2021-04-30):
Cribb: Las Vegas - 480 Sydney - 360 Xiamen - 400 Hamburg WC - 800 Gstaad - 600 Espinho - 320 Tokyo - 300 Vienna - 600 Moscow - 400 Rome - 840 *Boca Chica - 600 Chetumal - 800 Doha - 480 Doha - 640 Cancun 1 - 400 Cancun 2 - 240 Cancun 3 - 400
Olympics Ranking Points: 7040 points (+0) - Average Olympics Points/Event: 587 points Total Played: 17 events Total Points: 8660 points Average: 509 points/event
Lowest Finishes: (3)-400 & (2)-480, which equates to having to get a 5th place finish or better at 4* events to add more points to their Olympics ranking points
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Post by tamz on May 1, 2021 15:43:32 GMT -5
AFTER CANCUN HUB 3 (2021-05-01):
T2: Qinzhou - 600 Las Vegas - 560 Doha - 320 Itapema - 480 Jinjiang - 560 Ostrava -320 Warsaw - 320 Hamburg WC - 1120 Gstaad - 360 Tokyo - 480 Vienna - 480 Rome - 360 Chetumal - 640 Doha - 400 Cancun 1 - 400 Cancun 2 - 400 Cancun 3 - 480
Olympics Ranking Points: 6600 points (+120) - Average Olympics Points/Event: 550 points Total Played: 17 events Total Points: 7960 points Average: 468 points/event
Lowest Finishes: (3)-400, (3)-480 which equates to having to place 5th or better at 4* events to add more points to their Olympics ranking points
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Post by tamz on May 1, 2021 23:20:29 GMT -5
I am hoping to see Cafambula/Rossi wrap up a spot! Another good finish here in Cancun would put them in a great position to qualify. A podium would jump them ahead of the Grimalts! Chile is in it for now, but they haven't clinched it yet. And with how bad their entry points are now, they may not make the MD in the final two events. They have a pretty clear path to at least qualify through the Continental Cup, so I expect them to be in Tokyo one way or another. So tomorrow’s bronze medal match pits Italy against US. If US takes it, Dalcena ties Cribb.
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Post by tamz on May 2, 2021 12:55:03 GMT -5
AFTER CANCUN HUB 3 (2021-05-02):
Dalcena: Doha - 720 Xiamen - 240 Jinjiang - 480 Warsaw - 320 Hamburg WC - 960 Gstaad - 600 Espinho - 240 Tokyo - 480 Vienna - 840 Rome - 480 Doha - 480 Doha - 560 Cancun 1 - 400 Cancun 2 - 400 Cancun 3 - 640
Olympics Ranking Points: 7040 points (+320) - Average Olympics Points/Event: 587 points Total Played: 15 events Total Points: 7840 points Average: 523 points/event
Lowest Finishes: (2)-400 which equates to having to get 5th or better at 4* events to add more points to their Olympics ranking points
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Post by tamz on May 2, 2021 13:10:05 GMT -5
Recap of the 3 USA men's spots:
Heading into Cancun: -Cribb: 7000 points --> 7040 (+40) -Dalcena: 6400 points --> 7040 (+640) -T2: 6360 points --> 6600 (+240)
Basically, Dalcena made the most out of this 3 hub event in Cancun, replacing their (2)-25ths (240 points) and (1)-17th (320 points), collecting an additional 640 points and further tying Cribb.
Here on out to the last two events in Sochi and Ostrava, all three team's need to replace the 9ths (400 points) that they have. This Hub 3 was a good opportunity because a lot of the top teams took off after Hub 2.
T2 are trailing both Cribb & Dalcena by 440 points. For T2 to catch both, assuming they do not replace anymore OR points, at the bare minimum, they'll have to: -place 2nd twice to move ahead (by +200 points) -place 2nd once and 3rd once to move ahead (by +120 points) -place 1st once and make the semfinals once to move ahead (by +120 points) -place 1st once and make the quarterfinals once to move ahead (by +40 points) -place 3rd twice to move ahead (by +40 points)
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Post by dunninla3 on May 2, 2021 16:34:03 GMT -5
I think T2's loss to the Russians sort of sealed their fate. To expect they'd have a realistic chance of reaching semifinals in both of the last two tournaments is maybe... 5%?
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Post by tamz on May 2, 2021 16:39:46 GMT -5
I think T2's loss to the Russians sort of sealed their fate. To expect they'd have a realistic chance of reaching semifinals in both of the last two tournaments is maybe... 5%? I think we shall find out after Sochi. If they don’t make it to the quarterfinals in Sochi, then that’s it, there’s no chance in Ostrava even IF both Cribb and Dalcena do not improve on their points. They’ll also likely be in CQ (awaiting entry points update tomorrow)
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Post by ajm on May 2, 2021 18:01:20 GMT -5
I think T2's loss to the Russians sort of sealed their fate. To expect they'd have a realistic chance of reaching semifinals in both of the last two tournaments is maybe... 5%? I would also say losing to the Sams in pool play put them in the situation of having to play three matches the next day and they simply ran out of gas after that. And going back to the second event, losing to the Polish qualifiers in pool play put them in a bracket with Russia 1 and Norway. T2 looked like a better team than Cribb but their inability to beat inferior teams really dug themselves in a hole they couldn’t get out of.
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Post by tamz on May 2, 2021 18:11:51 GMT -5
I think T2's loss to the Russians sort of sealed their fate. To expect they'd have a realistic chance of reaching semifinals in both of the last two tournaments is maybe... 5%? I would also say losing to the Sams in pool play put them in the situation of having to play three matches the next day and they simply ran out of gas after that. And going back to the second event, losing to the Polish qualifiers in pool play put them in a bracket with Russia 1 and Norway. T2 looked like a better team than Cribb but their inability to beat inferior teams really dug themselves in a hole they couldn’t get out of. To be fair, that was a BRUTAL draw they had for the elimination brackets in Hub 2.
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Post by tamz on May 2, 2021 19:06:52 GMT -5
With their win, Qatar moves ahead of Bruno/Evandro.
Semonov/Leshukov will move up ahead of Cribb.
Dalcena will move up and tie with Cribb.
Carambula/Rossi will move up ahead of SamSmed.
Kantor/Losiak will be 100 points behind SamSmed, and currently still outside the top 15 (not including places earned through World Champs or OQT).
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