NCAA Softball Selection -- Does the committee love the B1G?

[trojansc]

Dunno if there are any softball fans, but tonight's selection show (9pm ET!!) is going to be very interesting. 9pm ET is kinda crazy for a selection show to start, but that's besides the point.

The biggest question by far is what happens with the B1G Ten. All of the other conferences allowed their teams to play non-conference matches. The B1G Ten did not and elected to play a conference only schedule. Because of this, there is controversy regarding whether their best team should get a Top 16 seed, and how many teams should get in from the conference.

Because mostly everyone decided to play non-conference, the RPI actually worked out. Through the Top 50, most of it seems like teams are reasonably placed and the RPI is still reliable measure. There are a couple exceptions: The CAA gamed the RPI and has Delaware at #23 despite only having 1 Top 50 win, a major anomaly. Princeton with a 1-2 record is #42 (lol).

Michigan (35-6) #31 RPI is the Big Ten Champion, highest B1G team rated, and is in discussion for a Top 16 seed, despite 0 T25 wins and only 3 T50 wins against 1 single team (Minnesota). The NCAA has a pre-approved list of 20 potential hosts, which were really among the Top teams, and Michigan is one of them. Minnesota is next at #43 RPI. Northwestern is #64 RPI and lost all 4 to Minnesota, and lost 3 of 4 to Michigan. But all of the 'Bracketology' websites have Northwestern as in.

I see no case that Northwestern should get in. They also have to make a decision re: #23 Delaware and if they will leave them out of the tournament. When all conferences allow non-conference play besides the B1G and that is a key selection criteria, the B1G should not get the benefit of the doubt. Reward the teams who played non-conference competition and won.

There's also controversy re: Duke. Duke is a Top 16 team and did not get rewarded one of the 20 pre-determined regional spots (they weren't allowing fans this season). It seems like an easy fix is to give Duke a Top 16 seed - and just send them to Michigan since they were approved to host. It'll be an interesting night for sure!

[bbg95]

May 16, 2021 14:59:42 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Dunno if there are any softball fans, but tonight's selection show (9pm ET!!) is going to be very interesting. 9pm ET is kinda crazy for a selection show to start, but that's besides the point.

The biggest question by far is what happens with the B1G Ten. All of the other conferences allowed their teams to play non-conference matches. The B1G Ten did not and elected to play a conference only schedule. Because of this, there is controversy regarding whether their best team should get a Top 16 seed, and how many teams should get in from the conference.

Because mostly everyone decided to play non-conference, the RPI actually worked out. Through the Top 50, most of it seems like teams are reasonably placed and the RPI is still reliable measure. There are a couple exceptions: The CAA gamed the RPI and has Delaware at #23 despite only having 1 Top 50 win, a major anomaly. Princeton with a 1-2 record is #42 (lol).

Michigan (35-6) #31 RPI is the Big Ten Champion, highest B1G team rated, and is in discussion for a Top 16 seed, despite 0 T25 wins and only 3 T50 wins against 1 single team (Minnesota). The NCAA has a pre-approved list of 20 potential hosts, which were really among the Top teams, and Michigan is one of them. Minnesota is next at #43 RPI. Northwestern is #64 RPI and lost all 4 to Minnesota, and lost 3 of 4 to Michigan. But all of the 'Bracketology' websites have Northwestern as in.

I see no case that Northwestern should get in. They also have to make a decision re: #23 Delaware and if they will leave them out of the tournament. When all conferences allow non-conference play besides the B1G and that is a key selection criteria, the B1G should not get the benefit of the doubt. Reward the teams who played non-conference competition and won.

There's also controversy re: Duke. Duke is a Top 16 team and did not get rewarded one of the 20 pre-determined regional spots (they weren't allowing fans this season). It seems like an easy fix is to give Duke a Top 16 seed - and just send them to Michigan since they were approved to host. It'll be an interesting night for sure!

I don't know anything about college softball (I only learned that BYU won the WCC a few minutes ago, and apparently this is the 12th consecutive year that they have won their conference title--I don't pay attention to BYU baseball either), but this was an interesting post nonetheless. 

[n00b]

Wasn’t Minnesota top 5 in the coaches poll a couple years ago then fail to get a Top 16 seed?

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 15:20:33 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

I don't know anything about college softball (I only learned that BYU won the WCC a few minutes ago, and apparently this is the 12th consecutive year that they have won their conference title--I don't pay attention to BYU baseball either), but this was an interesting post nonetheless. 

Ironically -- that is the conference I follow the most and know the most about. I've attended PCSC/WCC games every year since 2010. BYU went through a stretch when they won 4 different championships in 4 different conferences in consecutive years (Mountain West, WAC, Pacific Coast Softball Conference, and finally WCC).

BYU just has a huge edge over the fellow WCC squads. I shared a few conversations with BYU's head coach when he would visit LMU. It's a tight squeeze at that park and it's a highly contested series. LMU is the only team to have even won the 3-game WCC series against BYU since they joined the WCC in 2014! That's super dominant. The 2019 LMU/BYU showdown saw BOTH of their head coaches get ejected, and I've never ever seen that before. It's an intense series when those two meet, and for the past 3 seasons, determines the conference champion. BYU has won each time. When BYU played its lone season in the PCSC, they split 2-2 with LMU. LMU needed one more win to win the conference. BYU just doesn't break.

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 15:29:18 GMT -5 n00b said:

Wasn’t Minnesota top 5 in the coaches poll a couple years ago then fail to get a Top 16 seed?

Minnesota was ranked #1 in the coaches poll. They had an RPI of 12. They were light on top 25 wins, but were 51-3 overall and didn't lose to a team worse than #27 Illinois. You are correct, they did not even get a Top 16 seed. I thought it was a snub - I certainly didn't think they were a top 8 team, but they definitely deserved a Top 16 seed.

extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/SB%20Team%20Sheets%20thru%205_7_2017.pdf

There will be *so* much irony if Michigan this year earns a Top 16 seed.

[bbg95]

May 16, 2021 15:35:28 GMT -5 trojansc said:

May 16, 2021 15:20:33 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

I don't know anything about college softball (I only learned that BYU won the WCC a few minutes ago, and apparently this is the 12th consecutive year that they have won their conference title--I don't pay attention to BYU baseball either), but this was an interesting post nonetheless. 

Ironically -- that is the conference I follow the most and know the most about. I've attended PCSC/WCC games every year since 2010. BYU went through a stretch when they won 4 different championships in 4 different conferences in consecutive years (Mountain West, WAC, Pacific Coast Softball Conference, and finally WCC).

BYU just has a huge edge over the fellow WCC squads. I shared a few conversations with BYU's head coach when he would visit LMU. It's a tight squeeze at that park and it's a highly contested series. LMU is the only team to have even won the 3-game WCC series against BYU since they joined the WCC in 2014! That's super dominant. The 2019 LMU/BYU showdown saw BOTH of their head coaches get ejected, and I've never ever seen that before. It's an intense series when those two meet, and for the past 3 seasons, determines the conference champion. BYU has won each time. When BYU played its lone season in the PCSC, they split 2-2 with LMU. LMU needed one more win to win the conference. BYU just doesn't break.

Interesting. Why do you think BYU has an advantage? Better coaching and/or recruiting? A lack of interest in the sport from other schools? I looked at BYU's tournament history, and while they make it every year, I don't believe they've been to a super regional, let alone the CWS.

Edit: Actually, it looks like they were in the super regional in 2010.

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 15:41:38 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Interesting. Why do you think BYU has an advantage? Better coaching and/or recruiting? A lack of interest in the sport from other schools?

BYU gets talented kids from all over the country. Their name and brand is just too much to compete with. They have their own TV broadcasts (of excellent quality). SMC, LMU, Pacific, San Diego, and Santa Clara have third-rate streams at best.

Those 5 California schools practically get mostly only California kids, and usually not better recruits. There are other premier programs in California with better facilities if they want to stay local. I'm not 100% sure about the others, but LMU used to not be fully-funded. They only paid their head coach and had half of the normal scholarships. They got some investment into their program with paid assistants, better facilities, and more scholarships, and it seems to have paid off.

You're also not getting good quality kids to "walk-on" at heavy private school tuition prices like all 5 are mentioned at above. BYU's tuition is incredibly affordable.

and to your edited point - there's just not that much parity in college softball. You rarely ever see an unseeded team even make it to the Top 8 at the World Series. The SEC is getting all 13 of their teams into the tournament yet again this year. They're overwhelmingly dominant.

[bbg95]

May 16, 2021 15:52:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

May 16, 2021 15:41:38 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Interesting. Why do you think BYU has an advantage? Better coaching and/or recruiting? A lack of interest in the sport from other schools?

BYU gets talented kids from all over the country. Their name and brand is just too much to compete with. They have their own TV broadcasts (of excellent quality). SMC, LMU, Pacific, San Diego, and Santa Clara have third-rate streams at best.

Those 5 California schools practically get mostly only California kids, and usually not better recruits. There are other premier programs in California with better facilities if they want to stay local. I'm not 100% sure about the others, but LMU used to not be fully-funded. They only paid their head coach and had half of the normal scholarships. They got some investment into their program with paid assistants, better facilities, and more scholarships, and it seems to have paid off.

You're also not getting good quality kids to "walk-on" at heavy private school tuition prices like all 5 are mentioned at above. BYU's tuition is incredibly affordable.

Yeah, that's definitely true about the tuition. When I was there, it was just over $3000 per year. Looks like it's still under $6000 now. The cost of living in Provo is also not particularly high for college students. You can live in a nice place pretty easily (with roommates) for like $400/month. And yeah, having their games on BYUTV (if the volleyball broadcasts are any indication, I imagine they're very high-quality) helps parents watch their kids.

[bbg95]

May 16, 2021 15:52:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

May 16, 2021 15:41:38 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Interesting. Why do you think BYU has an advantage? Better coaching and/or recruiting? A lack of interest in the sport from other schools?

and to your edited point - there's just not that much parity in college softball. You rarely ever see an unseeded team even make it to the Top 8 at the World Series. The SEC is getting all 13 of their teams into the tournament yet again this year. They're overwhelmingly dominant.

Wait, all of the SEC schools are getting into the tournament? Yet again? Wow. I'm not sure I've heard of that happening in any other sport.

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 16:52:10 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

May 16, 2021 15:52:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

and to your edited point - there's just not that much parity in college softball. You rarely ever see an unseeded team even make it to the Top 8 at the World Series. The SEC is getting all 13 of their teams into the tournament yet again this year. They're overwhelmingly dominant.

Wait, all of the SEC schools are getting into the tournament? Yet again? Wow. I'm not sure I've heard of that happening in any other sport.

Yes. Softball plays 40-60 game schedules, so you can see how there can be a ton of opportunity for non-conference games when your conference slate is anywhere from 15-30 games. The SEC dominates non-conference with almost all of their teams so they can get all of their RPI's within the Top 50 range. This is the 3rd year straight (I think) they'll get all the SEC teams in the tournament.

South Carolina is the 13th ranked SEC team and .500 overall record - #50 in RPI, but their bubble profile is just so much better than the other teams. They'll certainly get in.

In other news, the #2 B1G team Minnesota just lost to the worst B1G team in conference today and it leaves Michigan as the only T50 team in RPI. Michigan has 0 T50 RPI wins and could be a Top 16 seed. But with only 3 hours towards the selection show and them ignoring RPI for only the B1G, it probably doesn't matter.

Here's a detailed spreadsheet from a Softball RPI guy that includes the matches that just finished today:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/e/2PACX-1vTslH94ZnR5y8FSXG2OCSQ3jV2y6Zc5kRHY5wTaow66JZJBvtvglQgA_3I6qckFjAYjLNTMDTY6u6FL/pubhtml?gid=403049295&single=true

[Deleted]

I'd be surprised if both Minnesota and Northwestern didn't make it in. Although I'm just going by precedent

First batter of the game homered for Minnesota today, and they went on to lose 4-1. Bases loaded with 2 outs in the 4th and Minnesota's most dangerous hitter stuck out. I believe it made that PSU pitcher's year. It was kind of sweet to see, actually.

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 17:59:05 GMT -5 @dc said:

I'd be surprised if both Minnesota and Northwestern didn't make it in. Although I'm just going by precedent

First batter of the game homered for Minnesota today, and they went on to lose 4-1. Bases loaded with 2 outs in the 4th and Minnesota's most dangerous hitter stuck out. I believe it made that PSU pitcher's year. It was kind of sweet to see, actually.

I would be surprised to see Minnesota not get in. I won’t be surprised either way by Northwestern. I’ll be surprised if Iowa gets in.

Yeah that loss to Penn State is definitely ugly though. I do miss the 4 game series, some conferences returned to that format this year. I liked to watch back to back Sat and Sun doubleheaders. Always fun to see a grueling battle all weekend end up in a 2-2 split. You also couldn’t survive with just one good pitcher.

[Deleted]

May 16, 2021 19:11:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

May 16, 2021 17:59:05 GMT -5 @dc said:

I'd be surprised if both Minnesota and Northwestern didn't make it in. Although I'm just going by precedent

First batter of the game homered for Minnesota today, and they went on to lose 4-1. Bases loaded with 2 outs in the 4th and Minnesota's most dangerous hitter stuck out. I believe it made that PSU pitcher's year. It was kind of sweet to see, actually.

I would be surprised to see Minnesota not get in. I won’t be surprised either way by Northwestern. I’ll be surprised if Iowa gets in.

Yeah that loss to Penn State is definitely ugly though. I do miss the 4 game series, some conferences returned to that format this year. I liked to watch back to back Sat and Sun doubleheaders. Always fun to see a grueling battle all weekend end up in a 2-2 split. You also couldn’t survive with just one good pitcher.

Do you have any info (or theories) on the lack of innings by Pease in recent weeks or the relatively shorter leash she’s had throughout the season?

[Deleted]

Evanston is 392 miles from Lexington, so Northwestern gets Kentucky regional and the Gophers get UCLA  

[mervinswerved]

Quite the reaction from UW.