NCAA Softball Selection -- Does the committee love the B1G?

[trojansc]

Wow! Washington got hosed, but their subregional was geography working in their favor. They got an absolute joke of a #3 seed. 121 Seattle is close to 70 spots WORSE than any other 3-seed in the tournament. Washington is clearly p'ssed though.

Oregon got hosed too - Texas had a terrible resume. It should have been Texas at Oregon.

Also, Northwestern getting in over South Carolina is absolutely friggin disastrous.

[trojansc]

Also - I think Kennesaw State, though I had them in the tournament, is absolutely SHOCKED.

I checked their last writeup after losing the A-SUN Final, they said their season was "over". No mention of the selection show in either their twitter OR their writeup on their athletic site. Kind of stunning. That's rare for even bubble-OUT teams.

ksuowls.com/news/2021/5/15/softball-owls-end-2021-season-in-asun-championship.aspx

[trojansc]

UCLA head coach ripping the committee for lack of respect to the PAC-12 !!!

[n00b]

May 16, 2021 20:44:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

UCLA head coach ripping the committee for lack of disrespect to the PAC-12 !!!

I don't follow softball at all, but knowing the Pac-12... Did limited budgets force regional non-conference schedules this season? That could definitely drive down RPI and result in poor non-conference SOS.

[c4ndlelight]

May 16, 2021 21:05:52 GMT -5 n00b said:

May 16, 2021 20:44:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

UCLA head coach ripping the committee for lack of disrespect to the PAC-12 !!!

I don't follow softball at all, but knowing the Pac-12... Did limited budgets force regional non-conference schedules this season? That could definitely drive down RPI and result in poor non-conference SOS.

Noob always ready to blame the PAC-12. Oregon #15 RPI, Top 10 SOS and unseeded. Sent to Texas totally coincidentally (Texas HC left Oregon somewhat acrimoniously in 2018).
UCLA #1 RPI and dropped below #4 RPI Oklahoma in seeding. Arizona St. seeded below its RPI as well.

Washington was #2 in the PAC (a conference that sends 3-4 teams to WCWS annually) by 5 or 6 games and gets seeded exactly at its RPI.

Kentucky #18 RPI and bumped up to #14 seed. Georgia #19 RPI and unseeded but gets to host.
PAC-12 has been the most successful SB conference for a couple of years running (most teams in WCWS despite SEC overseeding) and they still defer to the SEC.

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 21:05:52 GMT -5 n00b said:

May 16, 2021 20:44:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

UCLA head coach ripping the committee for lack of disrespect to the PAC-12 !!!

I don't follow softball at all, but knowing the Pac-12... Did limited budgets force regional non-conference schedules this season? That could definitely drive down RPI and result in poor non-conference SOS.

I think it's very important to just be a top-16 seed in softball, the second goal is to be top 8, which I think Washington expected to be #8, and they got #16. It's a double elimination tournament, so being at home is huge. The 2nd round is a best of 3 series at the higher-seeded team, so that's where top 8 comes into play. So I don't think it's that horrible for Washington.

Oregon has more of a complaint, I have more sympathy for them.

Anyways, to answer your question, to an extent it's true regionalization in particular hurt UW, Washington in particular had a cupcake non-conference. They also were the 2nd best PAC team, but 4th seeded. Arizona was in Florida for the non-conference and had key series cancelled unfortunately, they certainly had a great non-conference scheduled.

Besides Texas/Oregon, the only real snub is South Carolina. This is where the B1G came into play. I just can't stomach them giving a bid to Northwestern, who went 1-7 against B1G #1 and #2 with several losses outside of that category as well, but then they don't give a bid to South Carolina, with 4 top 25 and 8 total top 50 wins. I know this is a stretch to complain about the 13th SEC team not getting in, but if we're giving a participation trophy to Northwestern, it's fair to complain about.

Georgia is the luckiest team by far. They finished absolutely horrid - but since they got a pre-approved top 20 regional spot and Duke got hot but didn't get selected or didn't submit a bid (rumors differ on which is true).

[Deleted]

My impression is NCAA deferring to the SEC is a given.

[bbg95]

Hmm, based on the softball forum I just found, it seems like most people do think Oklahoma deserved the top seed (not sure how important RPI is to that selection process), but they're not happy that they're potentially matching up with Washington in the Super Regional.

[c4ndlelight]

May 16, 2021 21:22:02 GMT -5 trojansc said:

May 16, 2021 21:05:52 GMT -5 n00b said:

I don't follow softball at all, but knowing the Pac-12... Did limited budgets force regional non-conference schedules this season? That could definitely drive down RPI and result in poor non-conference SOS.

I think it's very important to just be a top-16 seed in softball, the second goal is to be top 8, which I think Washington expected to be #8, and they got #16. It's a double elimination tournament, so being at home is huge. The 2nd round is a best of 3 series at the higher-seeded team, so that's where top 8 comes into play. So I don't think it's that horrible for Washington.

Oregon has more of a complaint, I have more sympathy for them.

Anyways, to answer your question, to an extent it's true regionalization in particular hurt UW, Washington in particular had a cupcake non-conference. They also were the 2nd best PAC team, but 4th seeded. Arizona was in Florida for the non-conference and had key series cancelled unfortunately, they certainly had a great non-conference scheduled.

Besides Texas/Oregon, the only real snub is South Carolina. This is where the B1G came into play. I just can't stomach them giving a bid to Northwestern, who went 1-7 against B1G #1 and #2 with several losses outside of that category as well, but then they don't give a bid to South Carolina, with 4 top 25 and 8 total top 50 wins. I know this is a stretch to complain about the 13th SEC team not getting in, but if we're giving a participation trophy to Northwestern, it's fair to complain about.

Georgia is the luckiest team by far. They finished absolutely horrid - but since they got a pre-approved top 20 regional spot and Duke got hot but didn't get selected or didn't submit a bid (rumors differ on which is true).

"Not that horrible for Washington" - they have to go play at OKLAHOMA to get to the World Series. You're equating them having a weak 3 seed in their subregional (which actually harms more than helps, since the 2 seed doesn't have to throw its ace in Round 1), to being a Top 8 team with among the toughest possible paths to the World Series.

[bbg95]

Here's how the top 16 seeds were compared to their RPI:

#1 Oklahoma (4)
#2 UCLA (2)
#3 Alabama (1)
#4 Florida (3)
#5 Oklahoma State (5)
#6 Arkansas (7)
#7 LSU (6)
#8 Missouri (12)
#9 Tennessee (9)
#10 Florida State (8)
#11 Arizona (11)
#12 Texas (10)
#13 Duke (13)
#14 Kentucky (18)
#15 Arizona State (14)
#16 Washington (16)

That's pretty close. Only Oklahoma (+3), Missouri (+4), and Kentucky (+4--their RPI was 18th) had seeds that differed from their RPI by more than two spots. Oregon was No. 15 in the RPI, and they were unseeded. So it does seem that RPI is a pretty important criteria, for better or worse.

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 21:24:28 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

"Not that horrible for Washington" - they have to go play at OKLAHOMA to get to the World Series. You're equating them having a weak 3 seed in their subregional (which actually harms more than helps, since the 2 seed doesn't have to throw its ace in Round 1), to being a Top 8 team with among the toughest possible paths to the World Series.

I didn't mention anything about the #3 seed in that "not-so-horrible" post, so I'm not equating that at all. It's just a comment that it's not the absolute worst road to a Super Regionals, but if you see in the post I do agree they got 'hosed' to an extent. I don't think they were a 16 seed, but I also don't think they were a shoe-in for an 8 seed. I saw them around 9-12ish, which brings to your point that Oklahoma is NOT a fair Super Regional matchup, which I completely agree with. Maybe not so horrible wasn't the best language for that point.

To the part about 3-seed though, Michigan doesn't really even have an "ace". FSU got a very tough #3 seed UCF who could absolutely win that regional. I'm also not sold that Michigan is that tough of a 2 seed, but we'll see. The first goal is to make it past regionals.

Alabama is the #3 overall seed and has Clemson, who many thought would be a top 16 seed, coming to their house. That's tough too. I see many worse regional draws than UW, particularly for a 16 seed. That doesn't mean their potential Super matchup is easy.

There is a little consolation that Washington's ace has a good track record against Oklahoma.

Washington's non-conference losses were a factor as the committee said, losing to Nevada and San Diego State with no quality OOC wins is not a good look. That's why I didn't have much sympathy for not getting a Top 8 seed, though I agree 16 is not where they should be either. I don't think splitting with Stanford this weekend helped their cause either.

[trojansc]

May 16, 2021 21:41:34 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Here's how the top 16 seeds were compared to their RPI:

That's pretty close. Only Oklahoma (+3), Missouri (+4), and Kentucky (+4--their RPI was 18th) had seeds that differed from their RPI by more than two spots. Oregon was No. 15 in the RPI, and they were unseeded. So it does seem that RPI is a pretty important criteria, for better or worse.

One very interesting thing they did (not sure if you noticed) but BYU is actually the #3 seed in their regional with Southern Illinois the #4 seed. Southern Illinois is a Top 50 RPI team (44) and BYU is (67). They didn't really do that with anyone else.

[trojansc]

One thing I don't like is the potential re-matches in the Super Regional Rounds.

#2 UCLA-#15 Arizona State PAC on PAC
#3 Alabama - #14 Kentucky SEC on SEC
#5 Oklahoma St- #12 Texas BIG 12 on Big 12
#8 Missouri - #9 Tennessee SEC on SEC

Lame. They could have easily moved a couple of these around.

[trojansc]

UCLA Head coach - Kelly Inouye-Perez: "I am so disappointed. In all of my years being a part of this, to have the Pac-12 disrespected like this, to this level, I am shocked and very disappointed."

Arizona Head coach - Mike Candrea: "The influence that ESPN has on our game, is pretty interesting... How can Washington be a 16-seed? That hurts. To send Oregon to Texas. C'mon."

Carol Hutchins Michigan Head Coach: "They disrespected our entire conference and you know what, they have to give credence to all different areas of the country, and clearly, there’s a little bias with at least one conference in particular."

[bbg95]

May 16, 2021 21:49:17 GMT -5 trojansc said:

May 16, 2021 21:41:34 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Here's how the top 16 seeds were compared to their RPI:

That's pretty close. Only Oklahoma (+3), Missouri (+4), and Kentucky (+4--their RPI was 18th) had seeds that differed from their RPI by more than two spots. Oregon was No. 15 in the RPI, and they were unseeded. So it does seem that RPI is a pretty important criteria, for better or worse.

One very interesting thing they did (not sure if you noticed) but BYU is actually the #3 seed in their regional with Southern Illinois the #4 seed. Southern Illinois is a Top 50 RPI team (44) and BYU is (67). They didn't really do that with anyone else.

I did notice that BYU had a significantly lower RPI than I expected. But I figured that might be because the WCC overall isn't very strong. I was going to ask how you could tell which was the 3 and the 4, but then I realized that the 4 would be playing the seeded team, ASU.