RPI Futures 2021 - Week 1

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities per Pablo of all games currently on the schedule.


* This is the RPI Future based on my projected Pablo rating - for those that want to see something different for Stanford and Missouri.  Going forward this will become prior week RPI Futures.

RPI Future Rank (*)  School  - Conference - (Proj Wins-Losses) RPI Score - RPI Future SOS

1. (3) Kentucky - Southeastern - (26-2) .7167 - 3

2. (1) Wisconsin - Big Ten - (26-2) .7157 - 6

3. (11) Louisville - Atlantic Coast - (23-5) .6875 - 1

4. (2) Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast - (23-6) .6774 - 4

5. (6) Florida - Southeastern - (23-5) .6737 - 9

6. (5) Texas - Big 12 - (23-2) .6709 - 31

7. (9) Purdue - Big Ten - (22-7) .6696 - 2

8. (4) Nebraska - Big Ten - (23-6) .6621 - 12

9. (7) Ohio State - Big Ten - (22-8) .6462 - 16

10. (12) Georgia Tech - Atlantic Coast - (22-6) .6461 - 24

11. (8) Baylor - Big 12 - (18-7) .6459 - 5

12. (13) Minnesota - Big Ten - (20-8) .6431 - 13

13. (32) Florida State - Atlantic Coast - (19-8) .6414 - 11

14. (35) Utah - Pac 12 - (23-6) .6381 - 29

15. (16) BYU - West Coast - (25-4) .6379 - 50

16. (18) Creighton - Big East - (26-5) .6321 - 45

17. (10) Penn State - Big Ten - (22-8) .6297 - 25

18. (21) Tennessee - Southeastern - (20-8) .6284 - 21

19. (15) Marquette - Big East - (24-5) .6226 - 54

20. (25) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast - (18-10) .6145 - 14

21. (27) Pepperdine - West Coast - (21-6) .6136 - 67

22. (29) Dayton - Atlantic 10 - (23-5) .6128 - 74

23. (33) Towson - Colonial - (26-2) .6070 - 176

24. (17) Washington - Pac 12 - (22-7) .6052 - 58

25. (30) Western Kentucky - Conference USA - (25-1) .6051 - 219

26. (134) Missouri - Southeastern - (20-11) .6036 - 27

27. (23) Oregon - Pac 12 - (22-8) .6011 - 76

28. (36) South Carolina - Southeastern - (15-13) .5993 - 8

29. (43) Illinois - Big Ten - (18-13) .5972 - 22

30. (19) Michigan - Big Ten - (16-13) .5942 - 18

31. (26) Rice - Conference USA - (15-7) .5939 - 36

32. (42) Washington State - Pac 12 - (19-11) .5939 - 30

33. (20) UCLA - Pac 12 - (19-9) .5929 - 42

34. (22) UCF - American Athletic - (22-10) .5912 - 51

35. (53) Texas State - Sun Belt - (20-9) .5908 - 40

36. (46) San Diego - West Coast - (19-8) .5897 - 57

37. (65) High Point - Big South - (23-6) .5892 - 110

38. (41) Texas A&M - Southeastern - (14-14) .5885 - 7

39. (57) Wright State - Horizon - (25-5) .5873 - 140

40. (40) Denver - The Summit - (26-4) .5842 - 214

41. (44) Kansas State - Big 12 - (16-11) .5821 - 33

42. (51) North Carolina - Atlantic Coast - (18-11) .5796 - 47

43. (31) USC - Pac 12 - (14-15) .5783 - 15

44. (45) Princeton - Ivy - (17-5) .5779 - 133

45. (56) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast - (18-10) .5778 - 55

46. (50) Kansas - Big 12 - (15-12) .5771 - 26

47. (28) VCU - Atlantic 10 - (20-10) .5759 - 80

48. (66) South Dakota - The Summit - (20-7) .5757 - 99

49. (39) LSU - Southeastern - (14-13) .5752 - 19

50. (87) Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley - (25-5) .5750 - 183

51. (48) UNLV - Mountain West - (24-5) .5744 - 205

52. (102) Morehead State - Ohio Valley - (21-8) .5727 - 112

53. (86) Arkansas - Southeastern - (17-12) .5718 - 35

54. (74) Duke - Atlantic Coast - (18-11) .5707 - 53

55. (77) Georgia - Southeastern - (14-15) .5704 - 17

56. (68) Weber State - Big Sky - (20-6) .5702 - 150

57. (37) James Madison - Colonial - (16-8) .5694 - 81

58. (69) Western Michigan - Mid-American - (22-7) .5689 - 156

59. (63) Cal Poly - Big West - (20-11) .5687 - 75

60. (52) Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun - (21-7) .5685 - 159

61. (34) Houston - American Athletic - (24-8) .5678 - 145

62. (70) Arizona - Pac 12 - (19-12) .5648 - 73

63. (85) Alabama - Southeastern - (17-13) .5648 - 43

64. (38) Hawaii - Big West - (19-9) .5637 - 102

65. (89) Illinois State - Missouri Valley - (17-13) .5631 - 49

66. (81) Bowling Green - Mid-American - (19-9) .5630 - 90

67. (76) Syracuse - Atlantic Coast - (18-12) .5621 - 66

68. (139) Sam Houston State - Western Athletic - (18-7) .5613 - 127

69. (67) Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt - (20-6) .5611 - 180

70. (107) Jacksonville State - Atlantic Sun - (25-5) .5610 - 269

71. (129) DePaul - Big East - (20-10) .5606 - 97

72. (88) Wichita State - American Athletic - (21-11) .5597 - 91

73. (14) Stanford - Pac 12 - (12-16) .5594 - 10

74. (127) Stephen F. Austin - Western Athletic - (19-7) .5577 - 141

75. (78) Marshall - Conference USA - (14-11) .5571 - 46

76. (58) Yale - Ivy - (18-5) .5570 - 213

77. (91) Kansas City - The Summit - (21-9) .5569 - 138

78. (59) Northern Colorado - Big Sky - (19-8) .5564 - 154

79. (60) Cornell - Ivy - (16-7) .5551 - 146

80. (119) Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 - (21-8) .5549 - 187

81. (64) Navy - Patriot - (19-6) .5544 - 212

82. (54) Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun - (18-8) .5524 - 143

83. (108) Grand Canyon - Western Athletic - (20-5) .5510 - 267

84. (104) Mississippi State - Southeastern - (15-15) .5496 - 34

85. (116) Iowa State - Big 12 - (15-12) .5490 - 70

86. (155) Delaware - Colonial - (17-9) .5484 - 126

87. (93) Michigan State - Big Ten - (13-18) .5481 - 28

88. (71) LMU - West Coast - (18-10) .5481 - 117

89. (115) UTEP - Conference USA - (18-9) .5469 - 148

90. (61) Cincinnati - American Athletic - (14-14) .5448 - 41

91. (118) SMU - American Athletic - (16-14) .5437 - 62

92. (148) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland - (18-9) .5435 - 162

93. (79) Colorado - Pac 12 - (17-13) .5430 - 82

94. (24) St. Johns - Big East - (15-17) .5422 - 38

95. (73) Arizona State - Pac 12 - (14-17) .5420 - 32

96. (55) UCSB - Big West - (19-13) .5416 - 111

97. (103) Omaha - The Summit - (15-13) .5413 - 79

98. (80) Northwestern - Big Ten - (12-19) .5409 - 23

99. (124) Texas Tech - Big 12 - (13-16) .5380 - 39

100. (72) Army - Patriot - (19-6) .5376 - 279

101. (92) Maryland - Big Ten - (18-14) .5373 - 87

102. (109) Ohio - Mid-American - (14-15) .5371 - 56

103. (135) Xavier - Big East - (17-12) .5371 - 116

104. (120) West Virginia - Big 12 - (16-12) .5371 - 109

105. (105) Charlotte - Conference USA - (18-6) .5356 - 258

106. (94) Northeastern - Colonial - (14-12) .5353 - 78

107. (62) Missouri State - Missouri Valley - (18-12) .5349 - 122

108. (179) Central Arkansas - Atlantic Sun - (16-9) .5332 - 178

109. (133) Sacred Heart - Northeast - (19-7) .5332 - 276

110. (83) Northern Kentucky - Horizon - (17-11) .5327 - 131

111. (84) Clemson - Atlantic Coast - (14-16) .5323 - 60

112. (98) Indiana - Big Ten - (14-18) .5322 - 37

113. (260) New Mexico State - Western Athletic - (19-8) .5321 - 239

114. (47) Colgate - Patriot - (14-11) .5302 - 118

115. (106) Boston College - Atlantic Coast - (16-16) .5297 - 71

116. (165) North Texas - Conference USA - (15-11) .5290 - 115

117. (82) Montana State - Big Sky - (17-10) .5281 - 166

118. (223) UC Irvine - Big West - (20-11) .5270 - 194

119. (140) Utah Valley - Western Athletic - (12-13) .5262 - 68

120. (114) Louisiana - Sun Belt - (18-9) .5261 - 223

121. (167) Ole Miss - Southeastern - (13-16) .5261 - 59

122. (130) Arkansas State - Sun Belt - (15-13) .5258 - 100

123. (227) CSU Bakersfield - Big West - (24-8) .5245 - 288

124. (90) Rutgers - Big Ten - (14-18) .5242 - 61

125. (100) Virginia Tech - Atlantic Coast - (15-15) .5234 - 86

126. (163) Valparaiso - Missouri Valley - (18-11) .5223 - 196

127. (182) Bryant - Northeast - (22-7) .5222 - 305

128. (97) Temple - American Athletic - (16-16) .5216 - 96

129. (142) Northern Arizona - Big Sky - (15-12) .5212 - 142

130. (99) Long Beach State - Big West - (18-13) .5204 - 149

131. (112) UNF - Atlantic Sun - (19-9) .5197 - 275

132. (113) College of Charleston - Colonial - (15-12) .5195 - 137

133. (145) Austin Peay - Ohio Valley - (19-12) .5191 - 186

134. (136) Sacramento State - Big Sky - (17-10) .5186 - 192

135. (138) Cleveland State - Horizon - (18-12) .5184 - 175

136. (147) Ball State - Mid-American - (16-14) .5182 - 105

137. (49) Tulane - American Athletic - (18-15) .5162 - 136

138. (131) TCU - Big 12 - (10-16) .5159 - 44

139. (197) North Carolina A&T - Big South - (20-8) .5159 - 290

140. (156) Villanova - Big East - (13-17) .5157 - 65

141. (206) Houston Baptist - Southland - (20-9) .5157 - 280

142. (174) Miami-OH - Mid-American - (15-14) .5156 - 124

143. (164) Kent State - Mid-American - (17-13) .5145 - 181

144. (117) Illinois-Chicago - Horizon - (18-12) .5139 - 224

145. (128) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley - (13-18) .5129 - 77

146. (110) Campbell - Big South - (17-11) .5123 - 200

147. (75) Mercer - Southern - (17-10) .5121 - 226

148. (169) Central Michigan - Mid-American - (15-15) .5117 - 113

149. (96) Memphis - American Athletic - (15-17) .5111 - 94

150. (137) Saint Marys - West Coast - (14-13) .5100 - 132

151. (95) Boise State - Mountain West - (20-11) .5100 - 254

152. (150) Iowa - Big Ten - (8-22) .5100 - 20

153. (218) East Carolina - American Athletic - (15-14) .5066 - 155

154. (122) South Alabama - Sun Belt - (14-14) .5066 - 123

155. (126) Fairfield - Metro Atlantic - (18-10) .5065 - 274

156. (172) San Francisco - West Coast - (11-15) .5052 - 92

157. (153) Little Rock - Sun Belt - (17-11) .5052 - 246

158. (205) Auburn - Southeastern - (12-16) .5051 - 88

159. (160) Drake - Missouri Valley - (17-12) .5047 - 240

160. (226) Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley - (14-16) .5039 - 107

161. (101) Oregon State - Pac 12 - (10-20) .5039 - 52

162. (154) UTSA - Conference USA - (8-16) .5027 - 48

163. (212) NC State - Atlantic Coast - (11-18) .5007 - 69

164. (171) Brown - Ivy - (11-13) .4993 - 129

165. (132) Samford - Southern - (13-14) .4990 - 157

166. (274) Florida A&M - Southwestern Athletic - (24-4) .4989 - 337

167. (201) Bradley - Missouri Valley - (12-17) .4987 - 95

168. (185) Murray State - Ohio Valley - (15-14) .4984 - 179

169. (141) UConn - Big East - (15-15) .4984 - 160

170. (125) Milwaukee - Horizon - (13-17) .4979 - 119

171. (111) Troy University - Sun Belt - (15-12) .4974 - 211

172. (168) Virginia - Atlantic Coast - (11-17) .4974 - 85

173. (143) Wake Forest - Atlantic Coast - (10-19) .4971 - 64

174. (207) UAB - Conference USA - (12-12) .4960 - 165

175. (157) Evansville - Missouri Valley - (15-16) .4960 - 167

176. (240) UT Arlington - Sun Belt - (13-14) .4950 - 164

177. (190) SIUE - Ohio Valley - (15-14) .4947 - 195

178. (189) Oklahoma - Big 12 - (9-18) .4941 - 63

179. (193) Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley - (13-16) .4937 - 153

180. (178) Harvard - Ivy - (11-12) .4937 - 151

181. (217) Gonzaga - West Coast - (13-16) .4935 - 135

182. (239) Butler - Big East - (16-15) .4935 - 201

183. (215) Toledo - Mid-American - (16-14) .4933 - 208

184. (237) South Dakota State - The Summit - (15-15) .4929 - 189

185. (192) Northern Illinois - Mid-American - (14-14) .4925 - 173

186. (198) Winthrop - Big South - (14-12) .4925 - 222

187. (175) Tarleton State - Western Athletic - (15-13) .4920 - 230

188. (161) UC Davis - Big West - (16-15) .4915 - 188

189. (202) Southeastern Louisiana - Southland - (17-10) .4914 - 295

190. (238) Pacific - West Coast - (11-18) .4909 - 89

191. (210) Davidson - Atlantic 10 - (13-13) .4905 - 209

192. (121) Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun - (13-14) .4903 - 174

193. (123) Colorado State - Mountain West - (14-13) .4902 - 236

194. (200) Penn - Ivy - (11-12) .4900 - 161

195. (211) Dartmouth - Ivy - (11-12) .4885 - 190

196. (222) North Dakota State - The Summit - (15-15) .4872 - 232

197. (186) Purdue Fort Wayne - Horizon - (13-18) .4868 - 125

198. (268) Loyola University Maryland - Patriot - (14-13) .4854 - 252

199. (272) Providence - Big East - (19-13) .4849 - 282

200. (191) Eastern Michigan - Mid-American - (11-17) .4843 - 121

201. (181) Elon - Colonial - (10-16) .4833 - 103

202. (244) Western Carolina - Southern - (13-14) .4826 - 218

203. (241) Incarnate Word - Southland - (15-14) .4816 - 265

204. (231) Long Island - Northeast - (13-13) .4814 - 220

205. (204) Portland State - Big Sky - (10-17) .4812 - 120

206. (162) Southern Miss - Conference USA - (15-13) .4810 - 272

207. (243) Indiana State - Missouri Valley - (14-14) .4800 - 237

208. (195) San Jose State - Mountain West - (13-15) .4797 - 207

209. (188) Tulsa - American Athletic - (8-21) .4790 - 72

210. (250) Abilene Christian - Western Athletic - (12-12) .4786 - 231

211. (173) Dixie State University - Western Athletic - (8-14) .4775 - 114

212. (209) Akron - Mid-American - (13-17) .4772 - 198

213. (170) Wyoming - Mountain West - (14-17) .4767 - 185

214. (184) Southern Utah - Big Sky - (13-15) .4767 - 199

215. (236) Oakland - Horizon - (11-18) .4760 - 152

216. (203) Wofford - Southern - (15-13) .4744 - 285

217. (224) Eastern Washington - Big Sky - (10-13) .4742 - 202

218. (187) Florida Atlantic - Conference USA - (10-16) .4739 - 158

219. (220) Canisius - Metro Atlantic - (15-12) .4726 - 294

220. (214) McNeese State - Southland - (14-14) .4724 - 248

221. (152) USF - American Athletic - (10-21) .4724 - 106

222. (216) Georgia Southern - Sun Belt - (12-14) .4722 - 251

223. (149) Albany - America East - (13-14) .4719 - 241

224. (277) William & Mary - Colonial - (9-12) .4714 - 170

225. (246) Oral Roberts - The Summit - (13-14) .4708 - 255

226. (233) Portland - West Coast - (9-20) .4701 - 93

227. (221) UNC Asheville - Big South - (11-15) .4688 - 215

228. (288) Central Connecticut State - Northeast - (14-12) .4678 - 310

229. (304) Delaware State - Mid-Eastern - (21-5) .4669 - 340

230. (194) Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 - (14-18) .4664 - 233

231. (196) UMBC - America East - (15-13) .4657 - 313

232. (269) Rider - Metro Atlantic - (16-11) .4656 - 318

233. (270) Charleston Southern - Big South - (14-12) .4644 - 300

234. (144) Fresno State - Mountain West - (12-15) .4638 - 263

235. (230) East Tennessee State - Southern - (12-15) .4631 - 242

236. (229) Idaho - Big Sky - (11-17) .4627 - 182

237. (247) The Citadel - Southern - (12-12) .4625 - 299

238. (255) Idaho State - Big Sky - (9-19) .4614 - 128

239. (275) Holy Cross - Patriot - (10-17) .4611 - 191

240. (213) Hofstra - Colonial - (8-19) .4610 - 98

241. (245) Utah State - Mountain West - (13-17) .4603 - 261

242. (235) Duquesne - Atlantic 10 - (14-13) .4593 - 314

243. (219) UT Martin - Ohio Valley - (10-20) .4582 - 147

244. (263) Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic - (14-13) .4576 - 302

245. (251) New Hampshire - America East - (16-10) .4569 - 328

246. (176) Georgia State - Sun Belt - (10-16) .4553 - 203

247. (261) UC San Diego - Big West - (12-19) .4549 - 217

248. (208) Buffalo - Mid-American - (9-21) .4526 - 130

249. (234) South Carolina Upstate - Big South - (13-16) .4523 - 283

250. (248) Stony Brook - America East - (12-14) .4522 - 303

251. (242) Stetson - Atlantic Sun - (12-16) .4521 - 260

252. (320) Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern - (17-8) .4520 - 333

253. (225) Middle Tennessee - Conference USA - (9-14) .4510 - 245

254. (294) Coppin State - Mid-Eastern - (18-11) .4508 - 326

255. (262) UNCW - Colonial - (10-18) .4505 - 204

256. (253) San Diego State - Mountain West - (9-21) .4500 - 139

257. (159) Cal - Pac 12 - (8-23) .4497 - 104

258. (271) Santa Clara - West Coast - (6-21) .4490 - 101

259. (199) Florida International - Conference USA - (4-17) .4478 - 84

260. (258) Green Bay - Horizon - (13-17) .4475 - 284

261. (284) North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern - (10-14) .4471 - 264

262. (264) Lafayette - Patriot - (9-16) .4470 - 225

263. (299) Marist - Metro Atlantic - (15-14) .4459 - 319

264. (158) Liberty - Atlantic Sun - (8-18) .4459 - 171

265. (273) Cal Baptist - Western Athletic - (11-14) .4455 - 287

266. (146) American - Patriot - (11-19) .4445 - 256

267. (278) Air Force - Mountain West - (11-18) .4441 - 259

268. (166) Cal State Northridge - Big West - (8-22) .4439 - 144

269. (177) Robert Morris - Horizon - (13-17) .4434 - 304

270. (301) North Dakota - The Summit - (8-22) .4386 - 163

271. (266) Nicholls State - Southland - (9-18) .4382 - 229

272. (315) Western Illinois - The Summit - (8-21) .4380 - 168

273. (254) Seton Hall - Big East - (9-23) .4377 - 169

274. (285) Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley - (10-18) .4366 - 271

275. (232) UT Rio Grande Valley - Western Athletic - (9-18) .4359 - 253

276. (249) Furman - Southern - (10-16) .4358 - 289

277. (281) Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt - (7-24) .4351 - 134

278. (308) Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast - (15-13) .4340 - 325

279. (289) Old Dominion - Conference USA - (8-18) .4339 - 244

280. (282) Bucknell - Patriot - (7-18) .4333 - 193

281. (327) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern - (9-19) .4331 - 238

282. (252) Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley - (9-22) .4329 - 206

283. (292) Tennessee State - Ohio Valley - (12-16) .4328 - 311

284. (259) Montana - Big Sky - (6-21) .4308 - 172

285. (321) Jackson State - Southwestern Athletic - (14-13) .4296 - 329

286. (306) Belmont - Ohio Valley - (7-21) .4292 - 184

287. (293) Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun - (8-21) .4265 - 227

288. (287) Chattanooga - Southern - (10-19) .4249 - 281

289. (267) Niagara - Metro Atlantic - (11-16) .4228 - 316

290. (286) Iona - Metro Atlantic - (13-16) .4221 - 324

291. (295) Appalachian State - Sun Belt - (8-20) .4207 - 247

292. (151) New Mexico - Mountain West - (11-18) .4195 - 309

293. (180) Columbia - Ivy - (2-21) .4187 - 83

294. (297) Louisiana Tech - Conference USA - (7-21) .4187 - 234

295. (309) St. Thomas - The Summit - (3-25) .4187 - 108

296. (183) Lehigh - Patriot - (7-20) .4186 - 228

297. (296) Chicago State - Western Athletic - (9-17) .4177 - 298

298. (228) George Mason - Atlantic 10 - (6-21) .4151 - 216

299. (325) Eastern Kentucky - Atlantic Sun - (7-23) .4124 - 210

300. (276) Presbyterian - Big South - (10-16) .4116 - 320

301. (280) Hartford - America East - (6-19) .4105 - 268

302. (307) Northwestern State - Southland - (8-21) .4085 - 273

303. (302) Lamar - Western Athletic - (7-19) .4078 - 266

304. (303) UNC Greensboro - Southern - (10-19) .4072 - 307

305. (323) Hampton - Big South - (5-18) .4059 - 235

306. (311) Radford - Big South - (7-21) .4047 - 250

307. (322) Prairie View A&M - Southwestern Athletic - (14-17) .4045 - 332

308. (331) Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Southwestern Athletic - (13-15) .4044 - 330

309. (313) New Orleans - Southland - (7-19) .4040 - 286

310. (256) Cal State Fullerton - Big West - (5-25) .4017 - 197

311. (312) Nevada - Mountain West - (6-23) .4013 - 257

312. (257) Fordham - Atlantic 10 - (6-22) .4007 - 249

313. (279) Howard - Mid-Eastern - (7-20) .4005 - 296

314. (265) Gardner-Webb - Big South - (8-18) .3984 - 308

315. (298) Seattle - Western Athletic - (4-22) .3954 - 243

316. (318) Bellarmine - Atlantic Sun - (9-20) .3950 - 306

317. (337) St. Francis-PA - Northeast - (6-20) .3904 - 293

318. (324) Siena - Metro Atlantic - (7-22) .3903 - 297

319. (290) Georgetown - Big East - (3-26) .3877 - 177

320. (328) Binghamton - America East - (6-18) .3873 - 292

321. (283) Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern - (6-18) .3862 - 312

322. (316) Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic - (5-18) .3803 - 291

323. (300) Youngstown State - Horizon - (4-25) .3773 - 277

324. (314) North Alabama - Atlantic Sun - (7-23) .3756 - 317

325. (291) UC Riverside - Big West - (4-26) .3743 - 262

326. (317) IUPUI - Horizon - (3-26) .3734 - 270

327. (333) St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast - (9-22) .3650 - 327

328. (326) NJIT - America East - (4-23) .3598 - 315

329. (330) Merrimack - Northeast - (1-28) .3549 - 221

330. (310) George Washington - Atlantic 10 - (3-25) .3547 - 278

331. (338) Grambling State - Southwestern Athletic - (8-16) .3531 - 335

332. (329) Bethune-Cookman - Southwestern Athletic - (5-24) .3432 - 323

333. (336) South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern - (2-24) .3417 - 301

334. (305) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic - (5-25) .3344 - 322

335. (319) Alabama A&M - Southwestern Athletic - (7-21) .3306 - 334

336. (332) Texas Southern - Southwestern Athletic - (7-24) .3296 - 331

337. (334) Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic - (3-26) .3183 - 321

338. (340) Mississippi Valley State - Southwestern Athletic - (4-17) .3128 - 336

339. (335) Southern - Southwestern Athletic - (6-19) .3092 - 339

340. (339) Alcorn State - Southwestern Athletic - (4-21) .2920 - 338

[bluepenquin]

When putting this together prior to the Pablo ratings coming out - it was looking like the PAC is likely to have a very rough RPI year this year. Things can change - but I was showing some poor results from expectations despite some very good Pablo projected ratings.

Then the Pablo ratings came out - and this looks even worse for the PAC...

There is a real possibility the ACC will have more seeds and bids than the PAC this year.

[trojansc]

Aug 30, 2021 16:17:36 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There is a real possibility the ACC will have more seeds and bids than the PAC this year.

I mentioned that after week 1, the ACC is going to be very interesting to follow.

I don't think FSU will be close to seeding territory. They don't have Knuth and did not look great this past weekend. This next weekend will be interesting - they get VCU, Tulane, and Samford. Samford might still be without their Conference Player of the Year - I don't know what happened to her. So, they could be a bust in the RPI game. VCU and Tulane probably great teams to schedule.

[huskyvolley]

Aug 30, 2021 16:17:36 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

When putting this together prior to the Pablo ratings coming out - it was looking like the PAC is likely to have a very rough RPI year this year. Things can change - but I was showing some poor results from expectations despite some very good Pablo projected ratings.

Then the Pablo ratings came out - and this looks even worse for the PAC...

There is a real possibility the ACC will have more seeds and bids than the PAC this year.

Is this because how terrible PAC was this past weekend, or more on the scheduling part?

[trojansc]

WKU being borderline Top 25 at 25-1 is perfectly representative of their terrible scheduling efforts, can't blame it entirely on the C-USA.

[jwvolley]

Aug 30, 2021 16:31:35 GMT -5 trojansc said:

WKU being borderline Top 25 at 25-1 is perfectly representative of their terrible scheduling efforts, can't blame it entirely on the C-USA.

If ever there were a year to schedule a little tougher, how did they not feel confident enough in what/who they returned ? Odd to me.

[trojansc]

Aug 30, 2021 16:48:09 GMT -5 jwvolley said:

Aug 30, 2021 16:31:35 GMT -5 trojansc said:

WKU being borderline Top 25 at 25-1 is perfectly representative of their terrible scheduling efforts, can't blame it entirely on the C-USA.

If ever there were a year to schedule a little tougher, how did they not feel confident enough in what/who they returned ? Odd to me.

I don't understand. They don't even schedule other top mid-majors? If you want to avoid the Texas, Nebraska, etc. of the volleyball world, I totally get it. I don't think WKU should schedule those teams necessarily (maybe one or two isn't a bad idea). But, avoiding really any quality teams? I just don't get it. Why don't they try to schedule teams like UCF, Creighton, Dayton, VCU, Texas State etc.?

If you want to schedule lighter, you can do that, but, you can also still give your team the best chance to host a 1st/2nd round, which should be WKU's goal. They don't even attempt to get the RPI inflated teams that they still have a good chance of beating. And if Rice doesn't beat Texas (really nothing to do with WKU), WKU wouldn't have been seeded in 2019. 

I also can't imagine who WOULDN'T want to schedule Western Kentucky, even if they have to go on the road!

[bluepenquin]

Aug 30, 2021 16:28:41 GMT -5 huskyvolley said:

Aug 30, 2021 16:17:36 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

When putting this together prior to the Pablo ratings coming out - it was looking like the PAC is likely to have a very rough RPI year this year. Things can change - but I was showing some poor results from expectations despite some very good Pablo projected ratings.

Then the Pablo ratings came out - and this looks even worse for the PAC...

There is a real possibility the ACC will have more seeds and bids than the PAC this year.

Is this because how terrible PAC was this past weekend, or more on the scheduling part?

I could see the potential of this before this weekend.  I haven't dug into the scheduling aspect - my suspicion is how the quality of the conference is dispersed could easily create some real difficulties relative to the important RPI numbers (4, 16, 50).  

The 'poor' performance this weekend didn't seem that out of the ordinary to me.  This happens to the B1G/Pac frequently after one or two weeks and usually ends up reversing by the end of week 4.  Pablo is going to be slow in figuring out the PAC teams - like Stanford and Utah that we thought we knew about before the season and now other uncertainty among more teams?

[bluepenquin]

Aug 30, 2021 17:02:58 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Aug 30, 2021 16:48:09 GMT -5 jwvolley said:

If ever there were a year to schedule a little tougher, how did they not feel confident enough in what/who they returned ? Odd to me.

I also can't imagine who WOULDN'T want to schedule Western Kentucky, even if they have to go on the road!

Yes - they should be the #1 team everyone wants to schedule.  

BTW, their conference schedule sucks - doesn't help they don't get Rice either.

[huskyvolley]

Aug 30, 2021 17:05:11 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Aug 30, 2021 16:28:41 GMT -5 huskyvolley said:

Is this because how terrible PAC was this past weekend, or more on the scheduling part?

I could see the potential of this before this weekend.  I haven't dug into the scheduling aspect - my suspicion is how the quality of the conference is dispersed could easily create some real difficulties relative to the important RPI numbers (4, 16, 50).  

The 'poor' performance this weekend didn't seem that out of the ordinary to me.  This happens to the B1G/Pac frequently after one or two weeks and usually ends up reversing by the end of week 4.  Pablo is going to be slow in figuring out the PAC teams - like Stanford and Utah that we thought we knew about before the season and now other uncertainty among more teams?

I don't think there was any good wins from the PAC last weekend. PAC teams either beat cupcake teams or lost to good teams.

This coming week is going to be important for the PAC to determine the conference overall strength. 

[bluepenquin]

PAC 12 schedule next week and % chance of winning. Stanford % chance isn't right for sure IMO. I am also not buying those Utah odds. Washington State could lose both matches.

Overall - a pretty tough schedule.


Arizona
New Mexico State - 70.2%
UTEP - 79.2%
Northwestern - 69.6%

Arizona State
Georgia - 44.2%
Omaha - 66.9%
Nebraska - 6.1%

Cal
Tarleton State - 51.8%
UC San Diego - 58.2%
Pacific - 30.0%

Colorado
Iowa - 72.1%
Illinois - 28.9%

Oregon
Rice - 71.0%
SMU - 90.8%

Oregon State
LSU - 27.3%
Iowa State - 33.8%
Penn State - 5.9%

Stanford
Florida - 14.0%
Texas - 6.1%

UCLA
Long Beach State - 84.9%
Portland State - 97.0%
Georgia Tech - 47.0%

USC
Creighton - 39.7%
Northern Iowa - 88.7%
Kentucky - 2.6%

Utah
San Diego - 79.4%
Cal Poly - 88.1%
Hawaii - 89.6%

Washington
Illinois - 61.7%
Iowa - 92.5%

Washington State
Purdue - 28.4%
UNLV - 61.3%

[bluepenquin]

Big Ten for next week. Maryland and Rutgers doing their part to help the conference. I think Indiana is better than their Pablo rating.

Illinois
Washington - 38.3%
Colorado - 71.1%

Indiana
Purdue Fort Wayne - 80.4%
Southeast Missouri - 52.4%
Western Michigan - 42.4%

Iowa
Colorado - 27.9%
Washington - 7.5%

Maryland
Long Island - 94.1%
Temple - 73.4%
Iona - 98.7%

Michigan
Navy - 79.0%
West Virginia - 67.8%

Michigan State
Dixie State University - 85.8%
Weber State - 44.6%
BYU - 12.1%

Minnesota
Texas - 45.8%
Florida - 40.1%

Nebraska
Georgia - 91.8%
Omaha - 97.6%
Arizona State - 93.8%

Northwestern
Arizona - 30.4%
UTEP - 56.4%
New Mexico State - 56.6%

Ohio State
Rhode Island - 99.9%
Texas State - 84.6%
Texas Tech - 87.4%

Penn State
Iowa State - 87.4%
LSU - 83.2%
Oregon State - 94.1%

Purdue
Washington State - 71.6%
UNLV - 80.4%

Rutgers
Central Connecticut State - 90.6%
Lafayette - 96.5%
UConn - 75.6%

Wisconsin
Dayton - 96.0%
Dayton - 96.0%

[trojansc]

Aug 30, 2021 18:35:18 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Washington State could lose both matches.

If UNLV is still without Hayden, they’ll win one.

Also, a little strange that Cal is 30% to win against Pacific. Pacific was awful opening weekend.

[bluepenquin]

My last one - ACC.

42 matches and they are favored in all but 5. Darn Wake Forest...

Boston College
Holy Cross - 86.4%
Brown - 73.3%
Bryant - 58.4%

Clemson
UCF - 22.6%
South Carolina - 15.3%
Gardner-Webb - 98.6%

Duke
Elon - 92.9%
Howard - 99.9%
Miami-OH - 74.7%
College of Charleston - 85.8%

Florida State
Tulane - 93.8%
Samford - 98.2%
VCU - 85.6%

Georgia Tech
Long Beach State - 86.5%
UCLA - 53.0%

Louisville
Missouri - 73.1%
South Dakota - 91.2%
Northern Kentucky - 97.2%

Miami-FL
USF - 86.9%
USF - 92.1%

NC State
Wofford - 85.0%
Colorado State - 62.1%
East Carolina - 61.4%

North Carolina
Colorado State - 79.9%
East Carolina - 79.4%
Wofford - 94.1%

Notre Dame
Bowling Green - 78.9%
Cincinnati - 87.4%
Milwaukee - 93.5%

Pittsburgh
Baylor - 50.0%
Tennessee - 50.2%

Syracuse
Quinnipiac - 97.7%
Yale - 60.0%
Hartford 99.4%

Virginia
Akron - 66.0%
Winthrop - 71.8%

Virginia Tech
Georgia State - 82.3%
UNF - 50.6%
Davidson - 73.4%

Wake Forest
Kansas - 9.5%
Western Kentucky - 2.5%
Lipscomb - 16.6%

[badgerbreath]

So, current Pablo ratings must only consider cross conference matches from this year and NCAA matches from last year, right? How do they manage to weigh conference strength?