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Post by BearClause on Sept 14, 2021 16:31:50 GMT -5
Surprised that nobody has commented on this yet, unless maybe someone did and it was buried in another topic. Well - this is likely to fizzle out. Current polling is showing a strong double-digit lead to retain Gavin Newsom as Governor. There were several attempts to initiate a recall, but in the end it was probably his trip to the French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley that galvanized this support. That, and that the latest recall attempt was given additional days to gather signatures because of COVID-19 concerns. electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor-recallelectionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor
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Post by mikegarrison on Sept 14, 2021 17:07:43 GMT -5
As I understand it from the panicked messages from some of my Facebook friends, the big concern from Democrats is that the Republicans might have higher voter turnout percentages.
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Post by mervinswerved on Sept 14, 2021 17:08:37 GMT -5
As I understand it from the panicked messages from some of my Facebook friends, the big concern from Democrats is that the Republicans might have higher voter turnout percentages. They shouldn't be concerned. "no" is going to win by 15.
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Post by n00b on Sept 14, 2021 17:42:58 GMT -5
Right. "Does Gavin Newsome suck" might win a ballot measure in California (or at least be very close). But once there was a face to the opposition and it looked like Larry Elder would become Governor if Newsome was recalled, this became non-competitive.
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Post by BearClause on Sept 14, 2021 17:45:41 GMT -5
As I understand it from the panicked messages from some of my Facebook friends, the big concern from Democrats is that the Republicans might have higher voter turnout percentages. Well - the current election included a mail-in ballot being sent to every active voter in California. So far turnout has been pretty high for an off-year election just based on mail-in ballots returned. For Republicans to recall Newsom, it would take both high Republican turnout and low Democratic turnout. The party affiliation of returned ballots is publicly available, and a political data company has analysis of this that shows that so far it's been mail-in ballots being returned pretty close relative to party affiliation. As of this moment they're showing 46% returned for both Democratic and Republican voters. Independents and other party voters don't seem to be as enthused (33% returns). But then again Democrats have nearly a 2:1 advantage in registration. www.politicaldata.com/2021-special-election-tracker/It's going to take one heck of a one-sided (i.e. favoring Republicans) in-person voter turnout to overcome the mail-in ballots heavily favoring Democrats. I guess they're thinking maybe it will be like Pennsylvania where it was something like 3:1 mail-in ballots going for Biden and a bit less than 2:1 in-person ballots (they don't have early voting there other than just filling out a mail-in ballot and dropping it in a box) going to Trump. But so far I doubt there are a ton of people choosing to vote in person, although I did.
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Post by ironhammer on Sept 14, 2021 19:38:25 GMT -5
He won't be recalled. Simple as that.
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Post by donut on Sept 14, 2021 19:44:35 GMT -5
Right. "Does Gavin Newsome suck" might win a ballot measure in California (or at least be very close). no
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Post by geddyleeridesagain on Sept 14, 2021 20:05:55 GMT -5
I’m just happy all the GD campaign ads have stopped. Argh. Although there was a certain entertainment value to Larry Elder’s nuttiness - the crazy eyes, the machine-gun-like speed reading off a teleprompter, pulling a wad of hundreds out of his jacket and waving it around for no apparent reason, and the attempt at a smile that would frighten small children. Larry’s certainly a character - and likely the best opponent Newsom could ask for.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2021 20:31:30 GMT -5
Effing waste of time and money that is inherent in and symptomatic of our republican (little r) ethos, which is designed to prevent tyranny of the majority (which might be a good thing) but instead enables tyranny of the minority.
Unrelated. After four years of Trump and constant threats of another four years to come, this is a particularly infuriating take on Newsome as reported in a CNN piece: For most of his career, Newsom, 53, had always been more tolerated than beloved by Democratic voters. In interviews, voters often said they had difficulty relating to the impeccably coiffed scion of a politically connected San Francisco family who made millions by building an empire of wineries, restaurants and other businesses.
Seriously? Except for Elder, Newsome would have been recalled because he was a political legacy with slick hair who had made some money in Napa? Yet I live in fear (hyperbole) of Republicans (big effing R) taking another crack at our republic with a billion-heir, trust fund legacy of legacies, %*$#ty-reality show flunky, with the most godawful hair in the history of politics?
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Post by mervinswerved on Sept 14, 2021 22:18:26 GMT -5
Took at total of, uh, 12 minutes for Wasserman to call it.
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Post by BearClause on Sept 14, 2021 23:05:32 GMT -5
Took at total of, uh, 12 minutes for Wasserman to call it. Shouldn't have taken that long.
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Post by geddyleeridesagain on Sept 14, 2021 23:09:05 GMT -5
Took at total of, uh, 12 minutes for Wasserman to call it. Shouldn't have taken that long. CNN hemmed and hawed for about 45 minutes over it.
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Post by BearClause on Sept 14, 2021 23:37:02 GMT -5
I'm seeing little drops that are slowly chipping away at the no vote. It was predicted that in-person voting might skew a bit toward the YES vote, but I really doubt that there's going to be anywhere near enough to even get it to more than 40% NO.
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Post by BearClause on Sept 14, 2021 23:40:22 GMT -5
My bold prediction is that it's going to drop to less than 2:1 NO. I know - how would that happen?
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Post by ironhammer on Sept 15, 2021 3:09:41 GMT -5
Effing waste of time and money that is inherent in and symptomatic of our republican (little r) ethos, which is designed to prevent tyranny of the majority (which might be a good thing) but instead enables tyranny of the minority. That's putting it mildly. How many hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on this recall?
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