Who has a legitimate chance to win the national championship

[VolleyballMag]

I believe that every year there are a finite number of teams that can win the NCAA title. And the number is pretty small.
In spring 2021, Kentucky was an outlier -- only because it wasn't in the Big Ten or Pac-12 -- but loaded. In 2018 they were preseason No. 5 and in 2019 No. 7, so they've been one of the programs who would have entered this discussion in years past.
So, in your opinion, who can realistically win it all this year? Not only the obvious choices, but perhaps the few that if the moon and stars are aligned right could do it. The only other team from outside the B1G and PAC to win it since Long Beach State won in 1998 was Texas in 2012.

[longhorn9214]

This is a loaded question. It's an odd year because a lot of teams are making a splash before conference play even starts, which isn't rare but it's rare when we have Ohio State, Pitt, and Louisville making statement wins so early in the season/looking really good while we have usual powerhouses Texas and Wisconsin showing the dominance. So, I believe one of those will make the final four.

[volleyheels10]

Texas, Louisville, Baylor, Pitt are my Final Four Favs right now....I havent seen enough of Wisco yet to see how their freshman middle will do compared to Hart but I would add them into the mix if she can produce

[bluepenquin]

I think the list is much larger this year. I have a couple theories:

1) Parity. The SEC, B12, and ACC are closing the gap on the Big Ten and PAC.
2) COVID extra year of eligibility has increased the talent in D1 like never before and has increased the # of very good teams and potential NCAA title contenders.

I am not sure people have considered #2 being a factor this year and the next couple years. I look at a team like Nebraska this weekend. They are absolutely loaded with talent - to the point I don't think they have figured out who to play. In a normal year - Sun and others wouldn't be on the team, and the young Freshman would be coming into their own by the end of the year and the team would end up being a force. Having that extra year doesn't really marginally make Nebraska better, they just reload each year. But for the other teams in the Top 25 (that are not Stanford, Texas, Nebraska, Penn State - the usual contenders) they are substantially better with that extra year.

The marginal gain from that extra year is much smaller for the elite programs than it is for the next tier programs.

[volleyaudience]

I agree. The list of who might make the final four and who might win the championship looks very long at this time.

[Logan Tom Fan]

Early on I had Texas, Wisconsin, Stanford, and Nebraska. In this moment in time, I still have Texas and Wisconsin (even though they loss tonight), Pitt, and Baylor. Baylor looking strong with three All-Americans in their line up. Pitt the same. Louisville is right up there as well, along with Stanford. Nebraska will have to have figured things out and a miracle to happen for them to even get close. This season of Women's volleyball is starting off so good!

[tedheise]

Sept 20, 2021 10:00:39 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I think the list is much larger this year. I have a couple theories:

1) Parity. The SEC, B12, and ACC are closing the gap on the Big Ten and PAC.
2) COVID extra year of eligibility has increased the talent in D1 like never before and has increased the # of very good teams and potential NCAA title contenders.

I am not sure people have considered #2 being a factor this year and the next couple years. I look at a team like Nebraska this weekend. They are absolutely loaded with talent - to the point I don't think they have figured out who to play. In a normal year - Sun and others wouldn't be on the team, and the young Freshman would be coming into their own by the end of the year and the team would end up being a force. Having that extra year doesn't really marginally make Nebraska better, they just reload each year. But for the other teams in the Top 25 (that are not Stanford, Texas, Nebraska, Penn State - the usual contenders) they are substantially better with that extra year.

The marginal gain from that extra year is much smaller for the elite programs than it is for the next tier programs.

Point 2 is spot on, as is the follow-on observation that this will have less impact on the programs that are perennial contenders.  For what it's worth, I think the extra year may actually be having a negative effect on Nebraska, though maybe that will change if/when Lauren Stivrins returns to action.

Regarding the OP's question, I'm really liking Louisville's chances based on how they've done so far.

[vbkahuna]

Based on actual results so far...pretty much anyone in the Top 10 at least, and possibly the Top 15.

[ironhammer]

"Legitimate"....are there teams who are..."illegitimate"? 

[volleyfan4321]

After last night's results ............. There are many contenders. The regular season just started though.

[vbjustice]

Anyone in top 15-20.

[rjaege]

It's a bit early for meaningful speculation IMO, but then speculation is what volleytalk is about.

[chisovnik]

BVS will carry Hawaii to a NC.

[slxpress]

Sept 26, 2021 0:36:05 GMT -5 rjaege said:

It's a bit early for meaningful speculation IMO, but then speculation is what volleytalk is about.

I'm also not sure when any of my speculation about any topic has been particularly meaningful.

But does that stop me? Heck, it doesn't even slow me down. It's like the yellow stop light of conversation gambits.

[mikegarrison]

I'm waiting for the complementary question about who has an illegitimate chance to win. I'm guessing that discussion will be a lot more salacious.