RPI Futures 2021 Week 6 (10/4/2021)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities per Pablo ratings for all matches on the schedule (or at least matches I am aware of).


RPI Future rank. (last week rank) school - conference (projected wins and losses [rounded] - RPI score - Strength of schedule.

1. (1) Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast (26-3) - .7261 - 3

2. (2) Louisville - Atlantic Coast (27-1) - .7137 - 10

3. (4) Wisconsin - Big Ten (25-3) - .6913 - 16

4. (6) Texas - Big 12 (23-2) - .6884 - 14

5. (3) Baylor - Big 12 (19-6) - .6873 - 2

6. (8) Kentucky - Southeastern (21-7) - .6609 - 5

7. (11) Florida State - Atlantic Coast (21-6) - .6601 - 8

8. (5) Georgia Tech - Atlantic Coast (20-8) - .6565 - 4

9. (7) Purdue - Big Ten (22-7) - .6555 - 7

10. (10) BYU - West Coast (27-2) - .6461 - 75

11. (20) Ohio State - Big Ten (24-6) - .6455 - 26

12. (9) Creighton - Big East (28-3) - .6431 - 68

13. (21) Utah - Pac 12 (22-7) - .6413 - 19

14. (12) South Carolina - Southeastern (19-9) - .6378 - 6

15. (19) Marquette - Big East (24-5) - .6325 - 56

16. (16) Tennessee - Southeastern (21-7) - .6324 - 33

17. (15) UCF - American Athletic (25-7) - .6322 - 41

18. (13) Minnesota - Big Ten (19-9) - .6319 - 11

19. (27) Florida - Southeastern (20-8) - .6312 - 17

20. (18) Penn State - Big Ten (21-9) - .6292 - 23

21. (24) Western Kentucky - Conference USA (24-1) - .6286 - 118

22. (23) Oregon - Pac 12 (22-8) - .6279 - 42

23. (14) UCLA - Pac 12 (21-7) - .6276 - 46

24. (32) Nebraska - Big Ten (19-10) - .6233 - 12

25. (26) Rice - Conference USA (17-5) - .6227 - 34

26. (22) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast (21-7) - .6225 - 37

27. (25) North Carolina - Atlantic Coast (20-9) - .6179 - 30

28. (17) Colorado - Pac 12 (21-8) - .6128 - 49

29. (33) Texas A&M - Southeastern (19-9) - .6100 - 27

30. (28) Kansas - Big 12 (17-10) - .6087 - 9

31. (34) Syracuse - Atlantic Coast (20-10) - .6082 - 28

32. (35) Illinois - Big Ten (20-11) - .6067 - 21

33. (37) Stanford - Pac 12 (17-11) - .6059 - 22

34. (45) Washington - Pac 12 (21-7) - .6039 - 73

35. (41) Texas Tech - Big 12 (18-11) - .6026 - 18

36. (29) Michigan - Big Ten (18-11) - .5990 - 25

37. (42) Pepperdine - West Coast (21-6) - .5955 - 88

38. (39) San Diego - West Coast (20-7) - .5952 - 80

39. (36) Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun (23-5) - .5937 - 107

40. (80) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast (12-16) - .5868 - 1

41. (30) Ole Miss - Southeastern (22-7) - .5843 - 106

42. (46) St. Johns - Big East (19-13) - .5835 - 38

43. (43) High Point - Big South (23-6) - .5835 - 127

44. (31) Washington State - Pac 12 (18-12) - .5817 - 43

45. (38) UTEP - Conference USA (22-6) - .5803 - 117

46. (48) Duke - Atlantic Coast (17-12) - .5802 - 35

47. (44) LMU - West Coast (22-6) - .5785 - 147

48. (57) Mississippi State - Southeastern (20-10) - .5772 - 77

49. (40) West Virginia - Big 12 (18-10) - .5772 - 67

50. (60) Cincinnati - American Athletic (19-9) - .5770 - 79

51. (51) Kansas State - Big 12 (15-12) - .5763 - 31

52. (49) Princeton - Ivy (17-5) - .5761 - 138

53. (50) Iowa State - Big 12 (16-11) - .5746 - 52

54. (56) USC - Pac 12 (14-15) - .5744 - 13

55. (65) Stephen F. Austin - Western Athletic (19-6) - .5742 - 139

56. (52) UNLV - Mountain West (22-7) - .5735 - 123

57. (53) James Madison - Colonial (18-6) - .5724 - 109

58. (69) Houston - American Athletic (25-7) - .5715 - 149

59. (83) Valparaiso - Missouri Valley (21-8) - .5703 - 111

60. (84) South Alabama - Sun Belt (21-7) - .5697 - 122

61. (58) Dayton - Atlantic 10 (21-7) - .5686 - 141

62. (47) Towson - Colonial (23-5) - .5685 - 220

63. (72) Hawaii - Big West (20-8) - .5681 - 105

64. (54) UNF - Atlantic Sun (24-4) - .5679 - 226

65. (79) Bowling Green - Mid-American (20-8) - .5663 - 101

66. (66) Northern Colorado - Big Sky (21-6) - .5653 - 174

67. (89) Milwaukee - Horizon (22-8) - .5652 - 145

68. (67) Weber State - Big Sky (19-7) - .5649 - 151

69. (81) Arkansas - Southeastern (17-12) - .5645 - 59

70. (55) Maryland - Big Ten (21-11) - .5641 - 84

71. (63) Western Michigan - Mid-American (21-8) - .5641 - 142

72. (68) Grand Canyon - Western Athletic (18-5) - .5639 - 190

73. (70) Denver - The Summit (24-4) - .5620 - 273

74. (59) Missouri State - Missouri Valley (20-10) - .5600 - 87

75. (62) Ball State - Mid-American (22-8) - .5587 - 181

76. (99) Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley (21-9) - .5586 - 116

77. (87) SMU - American Athletic (17-13) - .5581 - 60

78. (77) Boise State - Mountain West (24-7) - .5569 - 222

79. (64) San Jose State - Mountain West (18-10) - .5553 - 85

80. (95) Elon - Colonial (18-8) - .5552 - 140

81. (82) Arkansas State - Sun Belt (20-8) - .5536 - 154

82. (74) Arizona - Pac 12 (16-15) - .5528 - 53

83. (61) New Mexico State - Western Athletic (20-7) - .5526 - 192

84. (97) Utah Valley - Western Athletic (14-11) - .5514 - 64

85. (107) UConn - Big East (20-10) - .5508 - 125

86. (102) Omaha - The Summit (18-10) - .5506 - 91

87. (75) Clemson - Atlantic Coast (15-15) - .5505 - 44

88. (88) Wake Forest - Atlantic Coast (16-13) - .5495 - 66

89. (114) Sam Houston State - Western Athletic (16-9) - .5475 - 96

90. (71) Kansas City - The Summit (21-9) - .5466 - 180

91. (101) Yale - Ivy (17-6) - .5464 - 208

92. (73) Colorado State - Mountain West (17-10) - .5450 - 99

93. (85) Texas State - Sun Belt (15-14) - .5438 - 58

94. (100) Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt (19-7) - .5438 - 215

95. (121) Jacksonville State - Atlantic Sun (22-7) - .5426 - 263

96. (110) Wichita State - American Athletic (16-13) - .5423 - 81

97. (113) Xavier - Big East (16-13) - .5422 - 83

98. (105) Fairfield - Metro Atlantic (23-6) - .5420 - 268

99. (78) DePaul - Big East (16-14) - .5419 - 70

100. (76) Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley (22-8) - .5414 - 214

101. (92) Michigan State - Big Ten (13-16) - .5413 - 45

102. (120) UCSB - Big West (21-11) - .5401 - 164

103. (98) Wright State - Horizon (20-9) - .5393 - 191

104. (108) TCU - Big 12 (10-16) - .5381 - 15

105. (94) Georgia - Southeastern (11-18) - .5368 - 29

106. (109) Cal Poly - Big West (16-15) - .5366 - 72

107. (106) Brown - Ivy (17-7) - .5363 - 225

108. (103) Virginia - Atlantic Coast (13-15) - .5348 - 50

109. (91) Evansville - Missouri Valley (19-10) - .5344 - 195

110. (90) Loyola University Maryland - Patriot (20-7) - .5339 - 270

111. (122) College of Charleston - Colonial (17-10) - .5337 - 137

112. (115) Northern Kentucky - Horizon (17-9) - .5333 - 168

113. (117) New Mexico - Mountain West (21-9) - .5329 - 221

114. (96) Portland State - Big Sky (17-10) - .5322 - 158

115. (132) Colgate - Patriot (15-10) - .5320 - 159

116. (86) Indiana State - Missouri Valley (17-11) - .5316 - 162

117. (104) Boston College - Atlantic Coast (16-16) - .5314 - 74

118. (126) Arizona State - Pac 12 (12-19) - .5313 - 39

119. (150) Morehead State - Ohio Valley (16-13) - .5306 - 86

120. (118) VCU - Atlantic 10 (17-12) - .5299 - 115

121. (112) Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun (16-11) - .5288 - 129

122. (131) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland (16-10) - .5288 - 165

123. (116) Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 (20-9) - .5283 - 254

124. (119) NC State - Atlantic Coast (12-17) - .5264 - 51

125. (134) Winthrop - Big South (18-8) - .5263 - 264

126. (93) Murray State - Ohio Valley (17-11) - .5261 - 171

127. (123) Tulane - American Athletic (18-14) - .5246 - 132

128. (111) Oakland - Horizon (18-11) - .5243 - 177

129. (144) Drake - Missouri Valley (15-11) - .5243 - 163

130. (139) South Dakota - The Summit (15-12) - .5237 - 134

131. (130) Troy University - Sun Belt (17-10) - .5224 - 200

132. (125) Villanova - Big East (14-16) - .5222 - 76

133. (128) Utah State - Mountain West (19-11) - .5221 - 205

134. (141) Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun (15-11) - .5207 - 146

135. (133) Northwestern - Big Ten (11-20) - .5206 - 36

136. (148) Charlotte - Conference USA (13-11) - .5197 - 135

137. (166) Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley (16-13) - .5180 - 156

138. (168) Toledo - Mid-American (20-10) - .5178 - 245

139. (136) LSU - Southeastern (9-18) - .5175 - 32

140. (140) Hofstra - Colonial (14-13) - .5162 - 119

141. (124) Saint Marys - West Coast (15-12) - .5157 - 155

142. (177) Middle Tennessee - Conference USA (9-9) - .5136 - 89

143. (155) Austin Peay - Ohio Valley (20-11) - .5132 - 231

144. (145) Georgia Southern - Sun Belt (16-10) - .5120 - 213

145. (165) North Texas - Conference USA (14-12) - .5118 - 148

146. (127) Marshall - Conference USA (10-15) - .5112 - 63

147. (137) Army - Patriot (16-9) - .5110 - 255

148. (142) UNC Greensboro - Southern (22-7) - .5109 - 308

149. (143) UAB - Conference USA (11-13) - .5099 - 95

150. (174) Campbell - Big South (17-11) - .5091 - 216

151. (153) Rutgers - Big Ten (11-20) - .5091 - 48

152. (164) UC Irvine - Big West (18-12) - .5088 - 219

153. (138) Alabama - Southeastern (11-19) - .5086 - 54

154. (162) Virginia Tech - Atlantic Coast (11-19) - .5085 - 61

155. (129) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (12-19) - .5080 - 62

156. (173) Auburn - Southeastern (14-14) - .5079 - 128

157. (175) Bradley - Missouri Valley (12-17) - .5079 - 82

158. (159) Houston Baptist - Southland (20-8) - .5071 - 298

159. (167) Illinois State - Missouri Valley (11-19) - .5056 - 69

160. (147) Indiana - Big Ten (12-20) - .5053 - 65

161. (196) Tulsa - American Athletic (13-16) - .5049 - 94

162. (181) Montana State - Big Sky (14-13) - .5044 - 184

163. (203) Lafayette - Patriot (14-10) - .5042 - 237

164. (169) Oklahoma - Big 12 (9-18) - .5041 - 57

165. (179) East Tennessee State - Southern (14-13) - .5030 - 182

166. (152) Wyoming - Mountain West (14-16) - .5027 - 130

167. (180) Delaware State - Mid-Eastern (23-3) - .5024 - 339

168. (156) Long Beach State - Big West (16-15) - .5023 - 179

169. (154) Florida International - Conference USA (7-14) - .5019 - 55

170. (183) McNeese State - Southland (15-10) - .5019 - 260

171. (158) Florida Atlantic - Conference USA (12-14) - .5011 - 131

172. (135) UTSA - Conference USA (7-17) - .5008 - 40

173. (225) Fresno State - Mountain West (12-14) - .5003 - 124

174. (176) Florida A&M - Southwestern Athletic (23-5) - .4987 - 333

175. (149) Sacred Heart - Northeast (16-10) - .4985 - 274

176. (171) South Dakota State - The Summit (16-13) - .4982 - 223

177. (226) UT Martin - Ohio Valley (14-17) - .4981 - 133

178. (195) UT Rio Grande Valley - Western Athletic (15-13) - .4979 - 217

179. (189) Seton Hall - Big East (13-19) - .4976 - 92

180. (184) Northern Arizona - Big Sky (12-13) - .4975 - 170

181. (151) Central Michigan - Mid-American (15-15) - .4965 - 176

182. (221) Mercer - Southern (13-14) - .4961 - 167

183. (163) Navy - Patriot (13-12) - .4960 - 207

184. (172) Northern Illinois - Mid-American (14-14) - .4958 - 193

185. (157) Santa Clara - West Coast (11-17) - .4955 - 103

186. (215) Oral Roberts - The Summit (17-10) - .4940 - 291

187. (170) Cornell - Ivy (9-13) - .4937 - 98

188. (182) Old Dominion - Conference USA (12-14) - .4922 - 173

189. (204) Providence - Big East (19-12) - .4910 - 283

190. (191) North Carolina A&T - Big South (18-10) - .4908 - 292

191. (161) Memphis - American Athletic (14-18) - .4906 - 120

192. (188) Western Carolina - Southern (14-13) - .4906 - 209

193. (200) San Diego State - Mountain West (10-20) - .4900 - 71

194. (160) Northeastern - Colonial (11-15) - .4900 - 108

195. (214) Harvard - Ivy (10-13) - .4896 - 136

196. (202) Albany - America East (14-13) - .4890 - 203

197. (186) Buffalo - Mid-American (15-15) - .4888 - 202

198. (192) Liberty - Atlantic Sun (11-12) - .4882 - 199

199. (193) Eastern Michigan - Mid-American (11-18) - .4880 - 104

200. (194) Delaware - Colonial (13-13) - .4872 - 196

201. (178) Samford - Southern (10-17) - .4864 - 97

202. (222) Louisiana - Sun Belt (15-9) - .4863 - 286

203. (187) Stony Brook - America East (14-12) - .4860 - 262

204. (190) Butler - Big East (12-19) - .4842 - 121

205. (199) Columbia - Ivy (8-15) - .4833 - 102

206. (197) Dartmouth - Ivy (12-11) - .4825 - 234

207. (146) CSU Bakersfield - Big West (16-12) - .4823 - 280

208. (210) Davidson - Atlantic 10 (13-13) - .4822 - 243

209. (241) Pacific - West Coast (10-19) - .4811 - 100

210. (205) Missouri - Southeastern (6-25) - .4811 - 24

211. (201) Tarleton State - Western Athletic (14-14) - .4800 - 236

212. (232) Southern Miss - Conference USA (14-14) - .4783 - 246

213. (185) Little Rock - Sun Belt (16-12) - .4779 - 284

214. (206) Chicago State - Western Athletic (14-12) - .4776 - 275

215. (209) Iowa - Big Ten (4-26) - .4742 - 20

216. (212) UMBC - America East (15-13) - .4740 - 285

217. (217) Illinois-Chicago - Horizon (15-13) - .4732 - 279

218. (198) USF - American Athletic (10-21) - .4730 - 112

219. (236) Cleveland State - Horizon (11-18) - .4716 - 143

220. (224) East Carolina - American Athletic (11-18) - .4709 - 157

221. (213) North Dakota State - The Summit (14-16) - .4697 - 224

222. (216) Bryant - Northeast (18-12) - .4684 - 313

223. (239) Akron - Mid-American (13-17) - .4683 - 218

224. (228) American - Patriot (13-17) - .4664 - 206

225. (219) Nicholls State - Southland (12-14) - .4662 - 241

226. (235) Central Connecticut State - Northeast (13-13) - .4645 - 282

227. (253) Sacramento State - Big Sky (12-15) - .4636 - 228

228. (250) Ohio - Mid-American (7-22) - .4632 - 78

229. (231) Abilene Christian - Western Athletic (10-13) - .4629 - 248

230. (211) Dixie State University - Western Athletic (6-16) - .4628 - 93

231. (240) Idaho State - Big Sky (10-18) - .4621 - 178

232. (230) Oregon State - Pac 12 (4-26) - .4604 - 47

233. (208) Green Bay - Horizon (14-16) - .4599 - 269

234. (248) Cal Baptist - Western Athletic (12-12) - .4587 - 281

235. (229) Kent State - Mid-American (11-19) - .4587 - 189

236. (207) Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley (12-16) - .4585 - 240

237. (227) Wofford - Southern (12-16) - .4580 - 261

238. (256) UNC Asheville - Big South (8-17) - .4574 - 153

239. (220) Tennessee State - Ohio Valley (15-12) - .4564 - 309

240. (238) Cal - Pac 12 (9-22) - .4563 - 126

241. (233) UC Davis - Big West (13-18) - .4549 - 253

242. (234) Central Arkansas - Atlantic Sun (9-16) - .4547 - 188

243. (242) Gonzaga - West Coast (9-20) - .4538 - 152

244. (223) Montana - Big Sky (10-16) - .4514 - 229

245. (245) Temple - American Athletic (7-24) - .4514 - 90

246. (246) Coppin State - Mid-Eastern (15-11) - .4514 - 317

247. (251) Stetson - Atlantic Sun (11-17) - .4505 - 247

248. (255) Lehigh - Patriot (10-17) - .4501 - 238

249. (258) Purdue Fort Wayne - Horizon (9-22) - .4495 - 150

250. (218) Furman - Southern (10-16) - .4490 - 251

251. (278) UC San Diego - Big West (12-19) - .4480 - 250

252. (254) Howard - Mid-Eastern (13-14) - .4468 - 303

253. (237) Portland - West Coast (6-21) - .4465 - 110

254. (275) The Citadel - Southern (10-12) - .4462 - 297

255. (244) Penn - Ivy (7-16) - .4446 - 183

256. (247) Cal State Fullerton - Big West (9-18) - .4445 - 211

257. (261) Rider - Metro Atlantic (16-11) - .4438 - 329

258. (259) North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern (8-15) - .4430 - 249

259. (262) Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (14-18) - .4422 - 296

260. (252) Air Force - Mountain West (7-21) - .4398 - 169

261. (267) Long Island - Northeast (12-14) - .4392 - 302

262. (271) Marist - Metro Atlantic (15-14) - .4390 - 319

263. (273) Jackson State - Southwestern Athletic (14-12) - .4373 - 324

264. (276) South Carolina Upstate - Big South (10-19) - .4335 - 266

265. (274) Belmont - Ohio Valley (7-21) - .4335 - 185

266. (284) St. Francis-PA - Northeast (13-13) - .4326 - 323

267. (272) Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley (7-24) - .4325 - 166

268. (279) Appalachian State - Sun Belt (7-21) - .4318 - 175

269. (266) Georgetown - Big East (6-23) - .4318 - 114

270. (263) Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt (7-24) - .4311 - 144

271. (249) Miami-OH - Mid-American (6-22) - .4298 - 160

272. (290) Southeastern Louisiana - Southland (9-16) - .4288 - 272

273. (268) Fordham - Atlantic 10 (10-17) - .4284 - 277

274. (257) Eastern Washington - Big Sky (10-14) - .4283 - 295

275. (260) Presbyterian - Big South (12-14) - .4263 - 315

276. (280) Seattle - Western Athletic (6-20) - .4248 - 204

277. (265) Bucknell - Patriot (7-18) - .4242 - 232

278. (270) Louisiana Tech - Conference USA (8-20) - .4233 - 252

279. (281) SIUE - Ohio Valley (7-22) - .4224 - 201

280. (243) Niagara - Metro Atlantic (13-14) - .4224 - 320

281. (277) Southern Utah - Big Sky (8-20) - .4224 - 230

282. (283) Georgia State - Sun Belt (5-21) - .4200 - 187

283. (264) William & Mary - Colonial (5-16) - .4195 - 198

284. (269) Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern (9-15) - .4194 - 293

285. (289) Duquesne - Atlantic 10 (11-16) - .4178 - 311

286. (282) Charleston Southern - Big South (9-17) - .4177 - 290

287. (306) Gardner-Webb - Big South (10-16) - .4176 - 305

288. (286) Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun (6-22) - .4172 - 197

289. (291) New Hampshire - America East (14-12) - .4171 - 337

290. (301) Chattanooga - Southern (8-21) - .4168 - 271

291. (287) Binghamton - America East (9-15) - .4159 - 300

292. (285) UC Riverside - Big West (8-22) - .4153 - 257

293. (292) UT Arlington - Sun Belt (6-19) - .4153 - 235

294. (288) Incarnate Word - Southland (10-18) - .4141 - 304

295. (294) Eastern Kentucky - Atlantic Sun (8-22) - .4137 - 239

296. (298) Canisius - Metro Atlantic (10-17) - .4125 - 306

297. (318) Cal State Northridge - Big West (5-25) - .4114 - 186

298. (293) Bellarmine - Atlantic Sun (9-19) - .4092 - 287

299. (296) Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern (12-13) - .4085 - 335

300. (297) St. Thomas - The Summit (4-24) - .4056 - 161

301. (312) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic (12-19) - .4054 - 316

302. (307) Robert Morris - Horizon (11-19) - .4047 - 312

303. (300) Radford - Big South (6-22) - .4039 - 242

304. (316) Texas Southern - Southwestern Athletic (12-18) - .4012 - 326

305. (315) San Francisco - West Coast (1-25) - .4010 - 113

306. (313) Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Southwestern Athletic (12-16) - .4001 - 327

307. (295) Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic (10-17) - .3991 - 314

308. (305) Youngstown State - Horizon (7-22) - .3989 - 278

309. (314) Nevada - Mountain West (5-24) - .3986 - 210

310. (308) Idaho - Big Sky (5-20) - .3984 - 265

311. (309) George Mason - Atlantic 10 (5-22) - .3950 - 244

312. (311) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern (6-22) - .3949 - 267

313. (317) Western Illinois - The Summit (5-24) - .3930 - 227

314. (304) Northwestern State - Southland (9-20) - .3916 - 307

315. (303) Grambling State - Southwestern Athletic (10-14) - .3913 - 334

316. (302) North Dakota - The Summit (3-27) - .3908 - 172

317. (320) UNCW - Colonial (4-23) - .3907 - 212

318. (323) Siena - Metro Atlantic (8-21) - .3853 - 301

319. (319) Hartford - America East (4-20) - .3850 - 256

320. (310) IUPUI - Horizon (4-25) - .3846 - 233

321. (299) Hampton - Big South (4-19) - .3842 - 259

322. (325) Iona - Metro Atlantic (10-17) - .3830 - 330

323. (321) Lamar - Western Athletic (5-21) - .3829 - 276

324. (322) Holy Cross - Patriot (2-25) - .3802 - 194

325. (324) St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast (8-21) - .3767 - 321

326. (326) North Alabama - Atlantic Sun (8-21) - .3717 - 322

327. (327) New Orleans - Southland (3-19) - .3630 - 288

328. (328) Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast (8-20) - .3616 - 331

329. (329) George Washington - Atlantic 10 (2-25) - .3574 - 258

330. (331) NJIT - America East (3-23) - .3540 - 289

331. (332) Bethune-Cookman - Southwestern Athletic (6-22) - .3502 - 325

332. (330) Southern - Southwestern Athletic (8-14) - .3467 - 340

333. (338) Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic (3-18) - .3305 - 310

334. (335) South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern (0-23) - .3199 - 294

335. (336) Alabama A&M - Southwestern Athletic (4-24) - .3158 - 328

336. (334) Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic (3-25) - .3123 - 318

337. (337) Merrimack - Northeast (1-28) - .3123 - 299

338. (340) Alcorn State - Southwestern Athletic (5-20) - .3027 - 338

339. (333) Mississippi Valley State - Southwestern Athletic (2-19) - .2873 - 336

340. (339) Prairie View A&M - Southwestern Athletic (3-27) - .2872 - 332

[hail2pitt]

What are the chances that Pitt and Louisville both receive a Top 4 seed if one of them wins both meetings between the two?

[bluepenquin]

Oct 4, 2021 16:28:54 GMT -5 hail2pitt said:

What are the chances that Pitt and Louisville both receive a Top 4 seed if one of them wins both meetings between the two?

Pittsburgh is pretty close to a Top 4 seed lock.  They would have to have some huge unexpected collapse not to have the #1 RPI, let alone something that wouldn't warrant a T4 seed.

Louisville is in very good shape, but could more easily fall out of regional host.

I expect both to be regional seeds this year.

[hornshouse23]

Baylor losing helped both teams inch closer to having both host regionals, correct? Helps Texas for that matter as well. Thanks Baylor.

[bigfan]

Always looking forward to this thanks bluepenquin

bluepenquin can a at large team with a losing record receive a NCAA bid on the strength of their RPI and schedule?

[hail2pitt]

Oct 4, 2021 16:43:32 GMT -5 hornshouse23 said:

Baylor losing helped both teams inch closer to having both host regionals, correct? Helps Texas for that matter as well. Thanks Baylor.

Actually Pitt's RPI would have benefitted from Baylor winning since they beat Baylor in Pre-Conference (Week 2 @tennessee I believe)

[hail2pitt]

Oct 4, 2021 16:41:41 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 4, 2021 16:28:54 GMT -5 hail2pitt said:

What are the chances that Pitt and Louisville both receive a Top 4 seed if one of them wins both meetings between the two?

Pittsburgh is pretty close to a Top 4 seed lock.  They would have to have some huge unexpected collapse not to have the #1 RPI, let alone something that wouldn't warrant a T4 seed.

Louisville is in very good shape, but could more easily fall out of regional host.

I expect both to be regional seeds this year.

I guess you're right about Pitt since RPI Future has them at 3 losses and still #1 RPI. I also don't see them losing 3 times before the tournament.

[huskyvolley]

Oct 4, 2021 17:01:33 GMT -5 bigfan said:

Always looking forward to his thanks bluepenquin

bluepenquin can a at large team with a losing record receive a NCAA bid on the strength of their RPI and schedule?

I believe a losing record is a hard threshold for a NCAA bid.

UCLA was ranked ~40 in 2018 and didn't make the tournament due to their losing record. ( USC beat them in 5 in their last match)

[mikegarrison]

Last year was a special exception, but a team MUST have a .500 record or better to receive an at-large bid. (Automatic Qualifiers do not have this restriction.)

======

It used to be > .500, which meant it was advantageous to schedule an odd number of matches. But the rule changed to be >= .500, which now makes it advantageous to schedule an even number of matches.

[trianglevolleyball]

Notre Dame needs to go 9-5 to make the tournament. They have two games against Louisville and one against Pitt. After that their hardest games are @fsu (who they already lost to), vsSyracuse (this week), and duke/UNC. The Syracuse match will be very big for them.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 4, 2021 16:43:32 GMT -5 hornshouse23 said:

Baylor losing helped both teams inch closer to having both host regionals, correct? Helps Texas for that matter as well. Thanks Baylor.

I think this is probably true - although Pittsburgh lost minimal ground from Baylor's record being slightly worse.  Eliminating competition is the most important thing for those wanting to see both Pitt and Louisville.  

The biggest threat was both Texas and Baylor along with 1 B1G team.  The next threat was 2 B1G teams with Texas or Baylor.  The next one is Kentucky.  And the last one is a PAC team which now seems very unlikely.  In this regard - Baylor losing is good.  

And this helped Texas for sure.

[n00b]

For what it’s worth and by my count, the pure RPI cut line projection is between #44 Washington St and #45 UTEP.

[Timeless]

What if UCSB and Hawaii both go 19-1 in conf. Can you run the calcs for that.

[pavsec5row10]

Oct 4, 2021 19:33:13 GMT -5 n00b said:

For what it’s worth and by my count, the pure RPI cut line projection is between #44 Washington St and #45 UTEP.

That's actually the pure FUTURE's RPI line. 

The pure current NCAA RPI projection (assuming  AQ goes to top RPI in each conference and Notre Dame is ineligible)  has:

Last 4 in: Pepperdine, Mississippi, Duke and Arkansas.
First 4 out:  San Diego, Maryland, UTEP and Mississippi State. 

[trojansc]

Oct 4, 2021 19:36:53 GMT -5 Timeless said:

What if UCSB and Hawaii both go 19-1 in conf. Can you run the calcs for that.

That's like the only chance of a multi-bid Big West at this point.

UCSB and Hawaii would have to go 19-1 and UCSB would need to win the conference tie-breaker, and Hawaii *might* get an at-large. They'd also need a very weak bubble (not convinced it's going to be that way this year) and would need USC and Texas A&M to get T50 status.