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Post by vbcoach06 on May 12, 2023 13:23:52 GMT -5
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Post by raptor patrol on May 12, 2023 13:57:28 GMT -5
Finally. WIU can't compete in the Summit.
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Post by FreeBall on May 12, 2023 13:59:29 GMT -5
Seems like a good move for both Western Illinois and the Summit League.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on May 16, 2023 7:09:07 GMT -5
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Post by mikegarrison on May 16, 2023 7:44:15 GMT -5
PAC and ACC could, I suppose, really throw a spanner into the works if they formed a joint East/West conference to rival the Big 10 and SEC.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,385
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Post by bluepenquin on May 16, 2023 8:16:10 GMT -5
PAC and ACC could, I suppose, really throw a spanner into the works if they formed a joint East/West conference to rival the Big 10 and SEC. I think it would require unequal revenue sharing for those 7 schools above plus some of the PAC schools - and that would probably only get them on a financial par with the B12. Plus - they would lose a net 1 automatic bid to the CFP. I think this is probably a nonstarter unless this was some kind of step to get the ACC out of their GOR agreement quicker than 2036.
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Post by mervinswerved on May 16, 2023 8:22:06 GMT -5
PAC and ACC could, I suppose, really throw a spanner into the works if they formed a joint East/West conference to rival the Big 10 and SEC. I don't see it as advantageous for those seven to link up with even the best of the PAC12 (UW, Oregon) unless there's a massive boost in revenue. Oregon is a valuable property, but I don't think it's that valuable. This move seems like the seven searching for leverage to renegotiate the existing revenue split.
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Post by mikegarrison on May 16, 2023 8:58:58 GMT -5
PAC and ACC could, I suppose, really throw a spanner into the works if they formed a joint East/West conference to rival the Big 10 and SEC. I don't see it as advantageous for those seven to link up with even the best of the PAC12 (UW, Oregon) unless there's a massive boost in revenue. Oregon is a valuable property, but I don't think it's that valuable. This move seems like the seven searching for leverage to renegotiate the existing revenue split. No, I think you are missing something. I have seen this happen before, intimately closely, in the aerospace industry. Also I've seen it happen in many other industries. There comes a tipping point when all of a sudden lots of smaller entities find themselves too disadvantaged to remain independent, and a waive of mergers and acquisitions sweeps the market space. All of a sudden, the ACC and PAC and Big 12 are too small to really compete with the Big 10 and SEC, and they either need to merge or accept that they are no longer on the same tier. They don't actually have to join their conferences, I suppose, but maybe form a media rights alliance. If they don't, I think they ultimately have two paths forward -- becoming second-tier conferences or seeing their teams desert them for the Big 10 and SEC. Or both.
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Post by slxpress on May 16, 2023 9:19:09 GMT -5
I don't see it as advantageous for those seven to link up with even the best of the PAC12 (UW, Oregon) unless there's a massive boost in revenue. Oregon is a valuable property, but I don't think it's that valuable. This move seems like the seven searching for leverage to renegotiate the existing revenue split. No, I think you are missing something. I have seen this happen before, intimately closely, in the aerospace industry. Also I've seen it happen in many other industries. There comes a tipping point when all of a sudden lots of smaller entities find themselves too disadvantaged to remain independent, and a waive of mergers and acquisitions sweeps the market space. All of a sudden, the ACC and PAC and Big 12 are too small to really compete with the Big 10 and SEC, and they either need to merge or accept that they are no longer on the same tier. They don't actually have to join their conferences, I suppose, but maybe form a media rights alliance. If they don't, I think they ultimately have two paths forward -- becoming second-tier conferences or seeing their teams desert them for the Big 10 and SEC. Or both. I agree with this completely. The problem, though, is that quantity alone isn’t a solution. If you combine every school in the existing Pac/Big 12/ACC, how many truly lucrative schools are you really getting, and of those lucrative schools, how many of them wouldn’t leave for a Big 10/SEC invite in a heartbeat unless they were legally bound not to? And maybe even then in worst case scenarios. The only setup that makes sense is for the conference to be made up of teams that the Big 10/SEC wouldn’t want anyway. That’s a big part of why the Big 12 is more stable currently than the PAC. The four corner schools would prefer to be associated with the remaining PAC schools, but as long as Oregon and Washington are perceived as wanting to hook up with a hotter partner the first chance they get, how viable is that? I just don’t see the PAC surviving, and whatever associations the member schools make, outside of the Big 10/SEC it will always play second fiddle. I don’t care how many schools join any potential association or what form it takes. The only temporary salvation is the kind of draconian GOR agreement the ACC signed, but I don’t see any schools with a perceivable option to leave for the Big 10/SEC in the future ever signing something like that again.
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Post by bbg95 on May 16, 2023 9:28:50 GMT -5
No, I think you are missing something. I have seen this happen before, intimately closely, in the aerospace industry. Also I've seen it happen in many other industries. There comes a tipping point when all of a sudden lots of smaller entities find themselves too disadvantaged to remain independent, and a waive of mergers and acquisitions sweeps the market space. All of a sudden, the ACC and PAC and Big 12 are too small to really compete with the Big 10 and SEC, and they either need to merge or accept that they are no longer on the same tier. They don't actually have to join their conferences, I suppose, but maybe form a media rights alliance. If they don't, I think they ultimately have two paths forward -- becoming second-tier conferences or seeing their teams desert them for the Big 10 and SEC. Or both. I agree with this completely. The problem, though, is that quantity alone isn’t a solution. If you combine every school in the existing Pac/Big 12/ACC, how many truly lucrative schools are you really getting, and of those lucrative schools, how many of them wouldn’t leave for a Big 10/SEC invite in a heartbeat unless they were legally bound not to? And maybe even then in worst case scenarios. The only setup that makes sense is for the conference to be made up of teams that the Big 10/SEC wouldn’t want anyway. That’s a big part of why the Big 12 is more stable currently than the PAC. The four corner schools would prefer to be associated with the remaining PAC schools, but as long as Oregon and Washington are perceived as wanting to hook up with a hotter partner the first chance they get, how viable is that? I just don’t see the PAC surviving, and whatever associations the member schools make, outside of the Big 10/SEC it will always play second fiddle. I don’t care how many schools join any potential association or what form it takes. The only temporary salvation is the kind of draconian GOR agreement the ACC signed, but I don’t see any schools with a perceivable option to leave for the Big 10/SEC in the future ever signing something like that again. I agree. Florida State, Clemson and Miami are currently a cautionary tale about extremely long GORs. I'm also amused that per usual, Notre Dame doesn't seem to care. They're technically locked into that GOR to some degree as well, but since they're quasi-independent, it doesn't really matter.
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Post by bbg95 on May 16, 2023 9:35:37 GMT -5
I definitely don't think all of those schools would get SEC or Big Ten invites. I'd rank them in tiers: Tier 1 - Strong football brands with 3+ national titles that the SEC would likely be interested in Florida State Clemson Miami (Notre Dame also, but I think they'd prefer to stay independent) Tier 2 - Good academic schools with strong basketball brands that may be of interest to the Big Ten North Carolina Virginia Tier 3 - Schools that I think are unlikely to get an invite from either the SEC or Big 10 Virginia Tech NC State
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Post by slxpress on May 16, 2023 9:47:17 GMT -5
I definitely don't think all of those schools would get SEC or Big Ten invites. I'd rank them in tiers: Tier 1 - Strong football brands with 3+ national titles that the SEC would likely be interested in Florida State Clemson Miami (Notre Dame also, but I think they'd prefer to stay independent) Tier 2 - Good academic schools with strong basketball brands that may be of interest to the Big Ten North Carolina Virginia Tier 3 - Schools that I think are unlikely to get an invite from either the SEC or Big 10 Virginia Tech NC State I’d definitely put North Carolina in tier 1. They’re a flagship school in a lucrative and growing media market. I do understand football drives these discussions, but North Carolina has enough other things going for it. And it’s not like football is terrible. It’s just not elite. It also helps that there’s no other SEC school in the state, which is an issue that has to be overcome for Clemson and the two Florida schools. I’m not saying that makes those three schools a non starter, but it is something that has to be overcome. I’ll also say the economics for basketball change drastically when a different entity chooses to host its own basketball tournament, which is going to happen eventually.
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Post by bbg95 on May 16, 2023 10:15:26 GMT -5
I definitely don't think all of those schools would get SEC or Big Ten invites. I'd rank them in tiers: Tier 1 - Strong football brands with 3+ national titles that the SEC would likely be interested in Florida State Clemson Miami (Notre Dame also, but I think they'd prefer to stay independent) Tier 2 - Good academic schools with strong basketball brands that may be of interest to the Big Ten North Carolina Virginia Tier 3 - Schools that I think are unlikely to get an invite from either the SEC or Big 10 Virginia Tech NC State I’d definitely put North Carolina in tier 1. They’re a flagship school in a lucrative and growing media market. I do understand football drives these discussions, but North Carolina has enough other things going for it. And it’s not like football is terrible. It’s just not elite. It also helps that there’s no other SEC school in the state, which is an issue that has to be overcome for Clemson and the two Florida schools. I’m not saying that makes those three schools a non starter, but it is something that has to be overcome. I’ll also say the economics for basketball change drastically when a different entity chooses to host its own basketball tournament, which is going to happen eventually. I understand the argument for North Carolina, but I don't think they move the needle in football. If the SEC were to take four teams from the ACC, I think North Carolina might make the cut, but they would be the fourth team to get the invite. I'm not convinced that FSU, Miami or Clemson would be left out because of other SEC schools in their state. Maybe if the Big Ten wasn't a threat to take them, but I don't think the SEC would want to risk that. But I guess we'll see. Now, you could be right that basketball will be more valuable in the future than it is now. It seems that Brett Yormark also believes this, though that can be attributed to his basketball background and the Big 12's presence as a top basketball conference. But he could be right, as he seems pretty visionary.
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Post by knapplc on May 16, 2023 10:33:14 GMT -5
Rutgers doesn't move the needle in football either.
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Post by bbg95 on May 16, 2023 10:34:51 GMT -5
Rutgers doesn't move the needle in football either. You do realize that it's not 2012, right? The dynamics governing conference realignment have changed since then. I really doubt that Rutgers could get an invite to the Big Ten now. They're lucky that cable markets were more important in that round of realignment. I'm not saying that North Carolina wouldn't get an invite. But I think that they're not at the top of the list for the SEC right now, which was never interested in Rutgers at any point in time.
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