trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 17, 2022 22:37:48 GMT -5
Fall 2022 Bracketology (10/17/2022) NCAA Selection Show: Sunday, November 27th at 7:30pm ET Please avoid quoting entire original post.
Note: This is designed to be a *reasonable* projection of what the NCAA Tournament will look like come Selection Sunday. This is not simply a prediction of what would happen if the season ended today, but rather a combination of what has happened to date plus some adjustments with projections of future results. Automatic Qualifiers for example, are not simply given to the #1 team in conference standings, especially in conferences that host conference tournaments.
Austin Regional (1) Texas vs. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi Yale vs. (8) Utah (4) Washington vs. Colgate Colorado State vs. (5) Marquette (3) Florida vs. Florida A&M Florida State vs. (6) Purdue (2) Wisconsin vs. Eastern Illinois Bowling Green vs. (7) BYU San Diego Regional
(1) San Diego vs. Fairfield Washington State vs. (8) UNLV (4) Houston vs. Texas State Auburn vs. (5) Oregon (3) Creighton vs. Portland State Northern Iowa vs. (6) Kansas (2) Ohio State vs. Wright State Western Kentucky vs. (7) Pepperdine
Lincoln Regional (1) Nebraska vs. Sacred Heart Iowa State vs. (8) LSU (4) Rice vs. UTRGV Texas Tech vs. (5) Southern California (3) Kentucky vs. UMBC Northwestern vs. (6) Georgia Tech (2) Pittsburgh vs. Howard Towson vs. (7) Penn State Louisville Regional (1) Louisville vs. Campbell Kennesaw State vs. (8) Mississippi State (4) Baylor vs. Western Carolina Colorado vs. (5) UCF (3) Minnesota vs. Loyola-Chicago South Dakota vs. (6) Arkansas (2) Stanford vs. Cal Poly Loyola Marymount vs. (7) Michigan LAST 6 TEAMS IN:
Florida State, Washington State, Northwestern, Iowa State, Auburn, Texas Tech FIRST 6 TEAMS OUT:
Hawaii, Miami-FL, Georgia, Utah State, Texas A&M, TCU NEXT TEAMS IN LINE FOR A TOP-16 (1-4) SEED:
Marquette, Southern California, UCF, Oregon, Arkansas, Purdue
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 17, 2022 22:39:05 GMT -5
There was one thing in particular I noticed while doing this. There were instances where I had an option in terms of the 5-8 seeds (teams who are going to subregionals, these are seeds who are NOT hosting). For example, I could have chosen to send Georgia Tech (6 seed) to Florida (3 seed). But I chose not to do that, because I had already planned on Florida State going there. (Both Florida State AND Georgia Tech cannot go to Florida, but it does not change the # of flights). My concern is the committee is going to prioritize geography with the seeded teams first and then fill in around that. I'd rather do what works best for RPI balance and also max out geography with the 3-4 seeds rather than 2 seeds, just let those fall as it is.
Another example of this is Stanford. I could have sent (7-seed) Pepperdine to Stanford (2-seed), but I had already planned on Loyola Marymount going there (both Pep and LMU can't go to Stanford). It will be interesting to see what the committee does. Depending on how the seeds play out, this may or may not be a thing that we can analyze, because it possibly won't matter.
Anyways.. now down to the conference breakdowns:
ICYMI:
AAC - Houston and UCF keep rolling. I don't know the chances if both of them get a seed. If both of them going 19-1 in the AAC, you have to imagine that at least one of them hosts a subregional.. Quite possibly the winner of the rematch and if both are 19-1, that would end up being UCF. Still a long ways to go, so they have to stay focused week in and week out. Both have handled SMU relatively easy, which is the major concern. Wichita State could also play a factor here, but it looks like near assured a 2-bid league. Mississippi State has not been winning matches they need to in order to stay Top 25 -- that is going to hurt Houston, Miss St. is there for now, but very unlikely they will finish T25.
ACC - Louisville and Pittsburgh stay undefeated. Pitt still looking for a #1 seed (top 4). Georgia Tech still in seed range - they need to beat Louisville or Pittsburgh. Georgia Tech has been good about no bad losses though - their current worst loss is Arkansas. BYU getting upset didn't help though. The rest of the ACC, is a mess. I don't know who is even playing like they deserve a tournament bid, but it looks like Florida State is going to get in and that could be it. Miami-FL has a win against UNLV that may propel them into the tournament. I am keeping them out for now - but there is a very decent chance that Miami-FL makes the tournament. At least madden55 will be happy if they don't.
Atlantic Sun - Kennesaw State RPI is still baffling me. Houston in particular would LOVE if Kennesaw State somehow runs the table and ends up Top 25. Also, FGCU lost to Central Arkansas. Ouch. I thought I saw a path for multi-A-Sun teams to get in, but this was before FGCU lost to UNF and Central Arkansas. I expected better from FGCU this season.
Big East - You felt like Theis was finally going to get one, but nah, KBB supremacy reigns again. Marquette was up 2-0 before Creighton rallied back. That match was the decider for who gets the Big East seed for now, but Marquette certainly isn't out of it. Will be interesting if Creighton wins the re-match but Marquette wins the tournament. Also, Creighton has been flirting with some losses and going 5, keep an eye on them. St. John's plays Marquette this week, could be a good match or a blowout.
Big Ten - Nebraska and Ohio State are the top contenders for a #1 seed. Wisconsin and Minnesota still solidly seeded teams. After that, who knows. Penn State/Purdue/Michigan are still teams that could get a top 16 seed, despite the reasons to doubt them, they still have opportunities to win themselves in. Northwestern is actually in at-large trouble now after the loss to Michigan (is Rousseaux out for the season?). What a shame that could be for Northwestern. Illinois as well can get back in the at-large conversation, but they have a lot of work to do and their RPI is not looking good. 4-5 seeds and 7-8 at-larges look like the future for the B1G.
Big 12 - Baylor is back in the Top 16 seed hunt because of their win at Rice. They have 3 T25 wins. The Iowa State loss isn't so bad now that Iowa State is in the tournament themselves. I also have Texas Tech there for now, but they need to pick up some more wins to solidify their spot. Kansas is ahead of Baylor in RPI for now, but I expect Baylor to pass them and Baylor has the better resume. Also, don't count out TCU yet. They have some wins over the two teams right in front of them in the tournament. Will be interesting to see what happens with the Big 12 at-large situation. Baylor shouldn't get comfortable though despite them getting a seed - they could easily end up in RPI trouble.
Big West - Don't fret Wahine fans. UCSB, Cal Poly, and Hawaii all control their own destiny to the tournament. So win and you'll get in. But I'm not really seeing a good chance for an at-large situation for anyone from the conference. Hawaii will have to live and die on one big win (vs. USC) if they do not win the AQ. They are in a tough situation if they are hoping for an at-large bid. I chose Cal Poly for the recent H2H win, but this could really go any direction of UCSB/Cal Poly/Hawaii.
C-USA - Rice continues to win 5-set matches, but lost a crucial match to Baylor. That would have been huge for their seed hopes. They may have to beat Western Kentucky twice to keep those hopes alive, most likely at least once to have any chance.
MAC - Bubble teams probably want Bowling Green to lose in the regular season, or win their conference tournament. BG hasn't been overwhelmingly dominant but has a good RPI and looks like they could end up in position to be a bid-stealer.
Mountain West - Again, keep an eye on this conference. San Jose State is 8-0. Utah State lost a tough 5-set match to UNLV which would have really shaken up the at-large picture, Utah State and San Jose State are still in the at-large discussion. I would be on this being a 2-bid league, but three is still possible.
PAC-12 - Stanford still in the run for a #1 seed (top 4) while the other PAC-12 seeded team picture is murky. It could be USC, Washington, or Oregon, or it could be 2 of those 3. Anyone else is unlikely at this point. USC picked up a huge home win against Oregon, is currently tied for 1st in the PAC-12 standings but hasn't played Stanford or Washington. Interestingly, USC-Washington only play once this year. On the last weekend. We could have a scenario like Houston vs. UCF where the winner gets a Top 16 seed and the loser does not. Oregon did dodge a huge bullet by winning in 5 at UCLA. Utah, Colorado, and Washington State need to focus on NOT losing to any of the teams below them to keep the PAC-12 at a 7-team at-large conference. 8-teams is still possible with UCLA, but, not sure it's going to happen. They need big wins desperately (currently at 0T50 wins).
SEC - Seems like things have sort of calmed down in the SEC. The Florida/Kentucky matches will most likely determine the winner of the conference - but they both look like seeded teams to me at this point. Auburn is still barely in the tournament for now, but again not with much room to breathe. They lost to Mizzou this past weekend and easily could have been 0-2. There's still some SEC teams with potential to make the tournament (Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee). UGA has the best chance and a lot of games against the top teams to earn their way in. Texas A&M can win their way in too, but they did lose both H2H to UGA which hurts. Tennessee still has opportunities as well.
Sun (Fun) Belt - OK, the Sun Belt isn't really going to be in on the at-large picture, but just doing this as a shoutout for Jenny Hazelwood. Four teams are 7-1 in conference (James Madison, Texas State, South Alabama, and Coastal Carolina). Coastal plays at JMU this weekend and Texas State plays at South Alabama. You can really pick any of the 4 to get the AQ at this point.
WCC - BYU at San Diego - huge match this weekend. BYU can get back in the seed discussion despite losing to Pacific, but, if they are losing to Pacific, you have to wonder if they can really pull it off at the Jenny Craig Pavilion. San Diego needs to win out for their best shot at a Top 4 seed, no guarantees. LMU pulled off a big win against Pepperdine, they may still need another to get comfortable to making the tournament, but they are in good position now.
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Post by basil on Oct 17, 2022 22:55:36 GMT -5
not the Texas-Washington sweet 16 rematch
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Post by Kingsley on Oct 17, 2022 22:56:57 GMT -5
Also, FGCU lost to Central Arkansas. Ouch. I thought I saw a path for multi-A-Sun teams to get in, but this was before FGCU lost to UNF and Central Arkansas. I expected better from FGCU this season. How's Chelsey doing though?
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 27,902
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Post by trojansc on Oct 17, 2022 23:20:02 GMT -5
Also, FGCU lost to Central Arkansas. Ouch. I thought I saw a path for multi-A-Sun teams to get in, but this was before FGCU lost to UNF and Central Arkansas. I expected better from FGCU this season. How's Chelsey doing though? Great! Not the reason for my L’s either!
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Post by madden55 on Oct 18, 2022 0:13:29 GMT -5
Love to see Miami out of it rn 🤩🤩
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Post by volleynerd on Oct 18, 2022 0:13:44 GMT -5
Florida sent to Austin?
terrific full circle.. get ready for the fighting Stuckies to take over Gregory Gym with Carli Snyder serving as the line judge (no I will not get over it)
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Post by volleynerd on Oct 18, 2022 0:22:03 GMT -5
thank you for doing this trojansc ! your work is always appreciated!!
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Post by psuvbfan10 on Oct 18, 2022 0:36:43 GMT -5
Hawaii not in - what an outrage! I figure I can start this
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 18, 2022 1:18:23 GMT -5
not the Texas-Washington sweet 16 rematch I wouldn’t mind it.
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 18, 2022 1:18:40 GMT -5
Love to see Miami out of it rn 🤩🤩 So on brand
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 18, 2022 1:20:12 GMT -5
Nebraska v Pitt would be an epic battle methinks.
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Post by redbirdfan101 on Oct 18, 2022 1:55:20 GMT -5
How is Illinois State not in this?!? We have a great win over Illinois and just a few bad losses to Evansville (2X), Memphis, Valpo, UIC, Drake, Cincinnati, and Bradley. Committee trying to screw us of a 5th straight tournament 🙄🙄🙄
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2022 6:39:55 GMT -5
Towson vs Penn State in the first rouund, YIKES! PSU could get bounced in the first.
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Post by hipsterfilth on Oct 18, 2022 7:17:34 GMT -5
Towson vs Penn State in the first rouund, YIKES! PSU could get bounced in the first. As long as Penn State's hitters don't become absolutely determined to bounce balls as hard as they can for two and a half sets, they should be fine. Even now watching the Pitt v Towson replay it is WILD to me how little respect Pitt seemed to have for Towson. Spend the entire first set just slamming balls directly into the block. Got out to a large lead in S2 by being crafty and attempting to play volleyball, and then from that point onward just reverted right back to S1 behavior. Truly bizarre.
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