Fall 2022 Bracketology (11/21)

[trojansc]

Fall 2022 Bracketology (11/21/2022)

NCAA Selection Show: Sunday, November 27th at 7:30pm ET

Please avoid quoting entire original post.

(*) denotes a team that 'travels' -- meaning they are not within 400 miles of the subregional they are placed to be in. These teams will usually have the most variability in their placement and which subregional they will end up in because of this.

Austin Regional

(1) Texas vs. Quinnipiac*
Towson* vs. (8) Washington State*

(4) Marquette vs. Wright State
Northern Iowa vs. (5) UCF*

(3) Oregon vs. Portland State
Georgia* vs. (6) UNLV*

(2) Ohio State vs. High Point
Tennessee vs. (7) Western Kentucky

Palo Alto Regional

(1) Stanford vs. Fairleigh Dickinson*
Pepperdine vs. (8) Florida State*

(4) Penn State vs. Colgate
Yale vs. (5) Creighton*

(3) Florida vs. Florida A&M
FGCU vs. (6) Southern California*

(2) Pittsburgh vs. Delaware State
James Madison vs. (7) BYU*

---

Madison Regional

(1) Wisconsin vs. Bowling Green
Hawaii* vs. (8) Miami-FL*

(4) Baylor vs. Stephen F. Austin
Texas State vs. (5) Houston

(3) Minnesota vs. Loyola-Chicago*
Colorado* vs. (6) Iowa State

(2) San Diego vs. UMBC*
TCU* vs. (7) Arkansas*

Louisville Regional

(1) Louisville vs. Samford
Michigan vs. (8) Washington*

(4) Rice vs. SE Louisiana
LSU vs. (5) Georgia Tech*

(3) Kentucky vs. Tennessee State
Utah* vs. (6) Purdue

(2) Nebraska vs. Nebraska-Omaha
Auburn* vs. (7) Kansas


LAST 5 TEAMS IN:
Michigan, Utah, Colorado, Texas State, Georgia

FIRST 2 TEAMS OUT:
Loyola Marymount, Colorado State

[trojansc]

I will at least provide updates on the thread even if I don't do another bracket until after Saturday night when all the matches are completed.

Brief Notes:
(i may add more in here as well)

Top 4 seeds: I like Texas, Louisville, and Stanford. Wisconsin winning out would make me think they could lock down the other spot for sure. I'm not sure I see it for San Diego - though I think a case could be made for them over Stanford. I may change my mind throughout the week - I don't know how much the RPI will matter/if BYU finishes T25, etc.

Top 16 seeds: I get kind of lost with organizing Oregon/Minnesota/Kentucky/Florida as the '3' seeds and if the committee wants to avoid a potential sweet 16 matchup it may mess with where they want to put Minnesota. I slightly moved them down in this bracket (while still on the 3-seed line), but, I don't know if the committee will do that. While any '3' seed can go to a '2' seed, the committee chair said they would prefer to keep the best '3' at the worst '2', etc.

I think Creighton must beat Marquette to get a seed. I don't know if they are really not going to seed Penn State. Rice has H2H wins against Creighton and Houston - that has to work in their favor. I don't see Baylor getting left out either. Basically, I think it's two spots from these teams (Rice/Creighton/Marquette) and an outside chance, MAYBE, for UCF/Houston.

as @c4ndelight mentions - Georgia Tech is the team that can really change this outlook. If they beat Pittsburgh, they are probably going to get a seed and knock someone out. USC lost to Oregon today - which would have gave the Women of Troy a chance - but they won't get a look now. There could potentially be an argument for BYU if they beat San Diego. But, I doubt BYU wins, and I'm not sure they'll get a seed even if they do.

At-Large Bids: This grouping of teams is where it gets murky:

Michigan, Utah, Colorado, Texas State, Georgia, Loyola Marymount, Colorado State

I don't know about Michigan. Their RPI is already at 51 AND they are taking huge RPI hits this weekend. If they lose either - they HAVE to be out. In the H2H battle: Colorado beat Utah, Utah beat Loyola Marymount. Colorado has the better RPI than Utah right now, so I like them in as well. I like Georgia as they have a road Top 25 victory. Texas State is a serious question mark - with a win against James Madison (does the committee view this as a Top 25 win?) and a win at TCU. I think they are in based on the metrics.

I left LMU and Colorado State out because LMU only has two T50 wins and they are against a team in the 40s (both against Pepperdine). Colorado State is tough - they have a T25 win against UNLV, and also split with Colorado, and beat FGCU. I left out Colorado State for now because they have three sub-100 losses: Northern Colorado, Boise State, and Nevada. You can EASILY make a case for Colorado State over Michigan and Utah, for example.

Bid Stealers: 

If neither Creighton NOR Marquette win the Big East Tournament, there will be a 3rd-team in from the Big East. Where have we seen that before?




Also, the Mountain West Tournament should be interesting. UNLV is red hot - but we see red hot teams get upset in conference tournaments all the time. Colorado State may get in without winning the tournament. Theoretically, three bids can still come from the Mountain West.

Northern Iowa could be on the bubble, they'd need to win their semifinal match and lose the Championship. I don't like their chances though.

[basil]

get Magda as far away from Austin as possible

[greatlakesvballer]

Minnesota and Baylor put in the Madison Regional AGAIN? It’s deja vu.

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 21, 2022 1:30:51 GMT -5 basil said:

get Magda as far away from Austin as possible

I feel like WSU/UW would be happier to not get the 8 seed and go to a subregional they could get out of. A lot of the 5-8 seeds look pretty tasty (and not much different than the unseeded opponents) so the benefit for nabbing the seed looks minimal.

[c4ndlelight]

I also think this weekend almost locks Rice into the 16 seed. They have H2H over Creighton and Houston (and common opp over UCF).

Ga Tech over Pitt is what they need to worry about.

[twkpwrbtmlib]

Nov 21, 2022 1:36:01 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 21, 2022 1:30:51 GMT -5 basil said:

get Magda as far away from Austin as possible

I feel like WSU/UW would be happier to not get the 8 seed and go to a subregional they could get out of. A lot of the 5-8 seeds look pretty tasty (and not much different than the unseeded opponents) so the benefit for nabbing the seed looks minimal.

it's why washington has been splitting weekends as of late 🤭🤣

[psuvbfan10]

Well going into the season there was fear that PSU wouldn't make the dance - they are in!

[ay2013]

Nov 21, 2022 1:36:01 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 21, 2022 1:30:51 GMT -5 basil said:

get Magda as far away from Austin as possible

I feel like WSU/UW would be happier to not get the 8 seed and go to a subregional they could get out of. A lot of the 5-8 seeds look pretty tasty (and not much different than the unseeded opponents) so the benefit for nabbing the seed looks minimal.

100% If I were Washington or Washington State, I'd prefer to take my chances as not being one of the top 32 seeds.

[volleynerd]

thank you for all the great work

I think I can speak for all of us here but we really appreciate you putting these together!

[volleynerd]

Nov 21, 2022 1:49:44 GMT -5 psuvbfan10 said:

Well going into the season there was fear that PSU wouldn't make the dance - they are in!

AND they are getting a seed?

even last years team couldn’t do that 

[volleynerd]

pls I don’t want fields coming to exactech arena

[c4ndlelight]

I just looked at Figstats - pure RPI cutline would have Michigan at 50 as last team in; Utah at 52 as first team out.

Trojan thinks RPI 40 LMU is in danger - has a Committee ever pulled a team a full 10 spots ahead of the cutline?

[volleyfan24]

I don’t mind this bracket but if this is how it shakes out I can see Texas in the Final Four they would have to like the way that looks.

[HawaiiVB]

And now you got Hawai’i traveling to Wisconsin? I get it, you hate Hawai’i. I guess we’ll wait and see where the committee sends Hawai’i. I get it, they can fit any spot because the travel rule does not apply. But closer to the west coast would make sense for distance wise.