Latest Victim(s) of the NCAA Selection Committee (injustice)

[mikegarrison]

Nov 28, 2022 2:03:25 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2022 1:56:50 GMT -5 donut said:

Auburn and Tennessee are an interesting comparison.

Auburn, probably shouldn’t be in, should be in based on RPI.

Tennessee, probably should be in, shouldn't be in based on RPI.

But the number of SEC teams in the field shouldn’t be anyone’s top complaint.

The Auburn/Tennessee inclusions are certainly ones that are legitimate debates. I hate the non-conference situation, and empathize with Tenneessee's situation in general, but it can at least be argued.

However, I'm just dumbfounded on how Tennessee isn't a last 4 team in. Was that a simple committee mishap? I mean, Tennessee was #56 in RPI! They lost to Auburn H2H, and their 3 top 50 wins were #38 and #48(x2). I don't know how that screams 'safe in the tournament. You can't even say they didn't have bad losses like LMU, Pepperdine... they just lost to freaking Alabama!

What were they on Monday?

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2022 2:19:13 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Nov 28, 2022 2:05:48 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Loyola Marymount made it in with a #57 RPI in 2018.
Clemson made it in with a #58 RPI in 2009.

you have to really go back, but #59 Texas A&M and #62 Kentucky made it in back in 2005.

But the real puzzling thing is that the #56 RPI team wasn't mentioned as the last 4 in. That means there were at least 4 teams considered worse than #56 Tennessee. Hard to believe that eliminates #58 UCLA.

Hmm, maybe it's because I'm still traumatized by the softball committee's hard cutoff at 40 (except Arizona), but 56-58 seems really high for an at-large.

There are more AQ's in softball that are not in the Top 50 in RPI. So, the cutoff shrinks.

For example, judging by the last softball and volleyball RPI, there are 11 non-P5 teams in the T50 RPI for softball. In volleyball, there are 22! That's a large difference. It's also explained by the non-conference schedule, you play a larger % of non-conf games in softball.

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2022 2:24:33 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Nov 28, 2022 2:03:25 GMT -5 trojansc said:

The Auburn/Tennessee inclusions are certainly ones that are legitimate debates. I hate the non-conference situation, and empathize with Tenneessee's situation in general, but it can at least be argued.

However, I'm just dumbfounded on how Tennessee isn't a last 4 team in. Was that a simple committee mishap? I mean, Tennessee was #56 in RPI! They lost to Auburn H2H, and their 3 top 50 wins were #38 and #48(x2). I don't know how that screams 'safe in the tournament. You can't even say they didn't have bad losses like LMU, Pepperdine... they just lost to freaking Alabama!

What were they on Monday?

#39 on Monday
#47 on Friday
#56 on Saturday after all matches completed

Maybe you're right.

[bbg95]

Nov 28, 2022 2:26:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2022 2:19:13 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Hmm, maybe it's because I'm still traumatized by the softball committee's hard cutoff at 40 (except Arizona), but 56-58 seems really high for an at-large.

There are more AQ's in softball that are not in the Top 50 in RPI. So, the cutoff shrinks.

For example, judging by the last softball and volleyball RPI, there are 11 non-P5 teams in the T50 RPI for softball. In volleyball, there are 22! That's a large difference. It's also explained by the non-conference schedule, you play a larger % of non-conf games in softball.

I see. Thanks for the explanation.

[mikegarrison]

Nov 28, 2022 2:27:50 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2022 2:24:33 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

What were they on Monday?

#39 on Monday
#47 on Friday
#56 on Saturday after all matches completed

Maybe you're right.

As I guessed. The committee put them in on Monday and then never revisited whether they should have been dropped out. We've seen that before.

[brybast]

Nov 28, 2022 0:51:16 GMT -5 canda said:

I still don’t understand how the SEC got 7 teams in and the league has only two teams in the AVCA top 25, Florida and Kentucky, and neither is in the top 10.

But it's a bit of a fallacy to assume that the teams from a conference should be distributed evenly through the top 50. It's theoretically possible, for example, to have only two teams in the top 25 but five teams in the 26-50 range.

It was kinda the inverse of that for the Big Ten. Most of their NCAA tournament teams are highly bunched up in the top 16 (5 out of the 6). The SEC just happened to have four teams in that range from the low 30s to the mid 50s of the RPI. (And Mississippi State wasn't far behind at 61.)

I'm not saying Tennessee should have been selected. I don't think they should have. But it's not because of the SEC either way. 

[trollhunter]

Thanks for the thread and comparison. I'd love to see Tennessee comparison too. They have a good SOS but not much else. Went 3-10 vs top 50 teams while TX State went 2-3.

Also, I'll lobby to add EWU to your list of wronged teams, even though it was not on your watch. Worst ever.

[trojansc]

here you go trollhunter

	Tennessee
RPI	56
Record vs. Top 25	0-7
Record vs. Top 50	3-10
Record vs 51-100	7-2
Significant Wins (RPI 50 or better)	#38 Georgia #48 LSU #48 LSU
Significant Losses (RPI 100 or worse)	#150 Alabama
Best Non-Conference win	#74 Loyola-Chicago
S.O.S	25
Last 10 Matches	7-3

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2022 3:01:40 GMT -5 trollhunter said:

Thanks for the thread and comparison. I'd love to see Tennessee comparison too. They have a good SOS but not much else. Went 3-10 vs top 50 teams while TX State went 2-3.

Also, I'll lobby to add EWU to your list of wronged teams, even though it was not on your watch. Worst ever.

I wonder if there has been some type of shift in the committee process re: how it looks at bad losses, non-conference scheduling, non-conference wins, and winning away from home. All of those have seemed to have been de-emphasized really.

Also, two years in a row we have had a very-high (mid-50's) RPI team from the SEC get an at-large without being the last-4 in, and they both dropped in RPI (Tennessee dropped A LOT) the last week.

I think that's an important question to get the committee chair to answer too. How diligent are they in keeping up with RPI changes in the last week, or has the bracket already been built and most changes don't affect it? I doubt they'd be bold enough to say it.

[mikegarrison]

Nov 28, 2022 3:10:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2022 3:01:40 GMT -5 trollhunter said:

Thanks for the thread and comparison. I'd love to see Tennessee comparison too. They have a good SOS but not much else. Went 3-10 vs top 50 teams while TX State went 2-3.

Also, I'll lobby to add EWU to your list of wronged teams, even though it was not on your watch. Worst ever.

I wonder if there has been some type of shift in the committee process re: how it looks at bad losses, non-conference scheduling, non-conference wins, and winning away from home. All of those have seemed to have been de-emphasized really.

Also, two years in a row we have had a very-high (mid-50's) RPI team from the SEC get an at-large without being the last-4 in, and they both dropped in RPI (Tennessee dropped A LOT) the last week.

I think that's an important question to get the committee chair to answer too. How diligent are they in keeping up with RPI changes in the last week, or has the bracket already been built and most changes don't affect it? I doubt they'd be bold enough to say it.

Actually did you listen to Terry Pettit's podcast interview with the Committee Chair? IIRC, she pretty much confirmed the theory that the bracket is largely formed before the final week, and they just look at the final week matches to make minor adjustments.

[Phaedrus]

Pauline Thiro did a much more thorough job of explaining the last four in and first three out in this conversation with VolleyballMag.

volleyballmag.com/ncaa-volleyball-zoom-112722/

[nellynel]

I believe she cited record vs 51-100 for the Ball State over Texas State call. And apparently ignored 1-50 record.

[gibbyb1]

Nov 28, 2022 1:13:32 GMT -5 vbcoltrane said:

Nov 28, 2022 0:51:16 GMT -5 canda said:

I still don’t understand how the SEC got 7 teams in and the league has only two teams in the AVCA top 25, Florida and Kentucky, and neither is in the top 10.

I'm not sure how Top 10 teams is related to how many teams a conference deserves.   What if a conference had the No. 15-25 teams in the country.  Should any of them be left out because the conference had no Top 10 teams?   Basically I'm saying that a conference can be weaker at the top than other conferences, but still have depth and many deserving teams.  I'm saying this generally, not advocating or not advocating for the SEC's 7 teams - I don't know about some of them.

Well the greater point is the AVCA ranking means nothing.

[Cruz'n]

Nov 28, 2022 6:36:18 GMT -5 Phaedrus said:

Pauline Thiro did a much more thorough job of explaining the lady for in and first there out in this conversation with VolleyballMag.

volleyballmag.com/ncaa-volleyball-zoom-112722/

Translation:
"lady for in" = last 4 in
"first there out" = first 3 out

[vergyltantor]

Nov 28, 2022 4:45:11 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Nov 28, 2022 3:10:06 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I wonder if there has been some type of shift in the committee process re: how it looks at bad losses, non-conference scheduling, non-conference wins, and winning away from home. All of those have seemed to have been de-emphasized really.

Also, two years in a row we have had a very-high (mid-50's) RPI team from the SEC get an at-large without being the last-4 in, and they both dropped in RPI (Tennessee dropped A LOT) the last week.

I think that's an important question to get the committee chair to answer too. How diligent are they in keeping up with RPI changes in the last week, or has the bracket already been built and most changes don't affect it? I doubt they'd be bold enough to say it.

Actually did you listen to Terry Pettit's podcast interview with the Committee Chair? IIRC, she pretty much confirmed the theory that the bracket is largely formed before the final week, and they just look at the final week matches to make minor adjustments.

The committee has a big job to do in less than 24 hrs. I would assume that as much work as possible would have to be done beforehand to have any chance to do a thorough job.

IMO, if the committee needs more time to complete the job it should be done, even if that means ending the regular season earlier.